Western Hegemony's Collapse

Dispatch from Moscow

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By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Russians have never had a higher level of confidence in the Army since the end of World War II, according to a national poll just published by the independent Levada Centre of Moscow.

This also means a record level of confidence in the General Staff to outwit the principal enemy of the country, the United States, and defeat it and its allies on the Ukrainian battlefield. Most Russians now believe this war will take the Russian Army at least another six months, and more likely a year to finish.

This new poll signals that most Russians believe it prudent not to fight the US with the same intensity in two long wars at the same time – in the Ukraine and in the Middle East — because the Army has decided so. This is despite the overwhelming Russian support for the Palestinians in their fight for survival against Israel. No poll is allowed to measure and publish this support, and the emotional reaction the majority of Russians feels towards the operations of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the US military to destroy the population of Gaza.

“We should not, we have no right and we cannot allow ourselves to be carried away by emotions,” President Vladimir Putin announced on October 30.

“We must clearly understand who in reality is behind the tragedy of peoples in the Middle East and in other regions around the world, who has been organising this lethal chaos and who benefits from it. In my opinion, it has already become clear to everyone, as the masterminds brazenly act in the open. These are the current ruling elites in the United States and its satellites who are the main beneficiaries of the global instability that they use to extract their bloody rent. Their strategy is also clear. The United States as a global superpower is becoming weaker and is losing its position, and everyone sees and understands this.”

This is the president running for re-election in five months’ time, speaking directly to Russian voters, reflecting what the polls on his desk tell him they already believe.

The Levada pollsters report there is a small increase in war weariness across the country, with 56% now saying they favour the start of peace talks soon, compared with 48% measured a year ago, in September 2022. This, however, reflects public belief in the success of the Army in defeating the Ukrainian-NATO counteroffensive, and in advancing Russian control of the new Donbass territories and along the front line from Kharkov to Odessa. “In October 2023,” Levada reports, “62% of Russians across the country believe that the special military operation is progressing successfully (12% very successfully, 50% rather successfully), over the past 5 months their number has increased slightly. The opposite point of view is held by 21%.”

The Levada survey reveals also that “Moscow stands out from other localities. Muscovites are less willing to move on to peace talks — only 38% hold this opinion, while in other localities about half of the respondents believe that it is necessary to start peace talks. Among those who approve of Vladimir Putin’s activities as president, there are slightly more supporters of peace negotiations than supporters of the continuation of hostilities — 51% and 42%, respectively. The majority (72%) of those who disapprove of the president’s activities believe that it is necessary to move on to peace negotiations.”

Long war is the assessment of the higher educated, higher class Russian urbanites over forty.

The Levada survey was conducted by face-to-face interview in the homes of a nationwide sample of 1,607. The polling was carried out between October 19 and 25.

Levada’s independence in conducting its polls has drawn the Russian government regulator’s requirement that it publishes the following notice with every report: “This material (information) was produced and distributed by a foreign agent of Levada Centre or concerns the activities of a foreign agent of Levada Centre.”

Levada has not yet published an English translation of the new poll results which were released on October 31. Read the full report in Russian here.

Source: https://www.levada.ru/

[ . . . ]

Levada also reveals an unusual analysis it has carried out to gauge the nature of Russian sentiment for waging war against the country’s enemies. The result is the first clear signal that most Russians trust the Army to defeat the enemy on the battlefield more than they trust Putin to negotiate an agreement on paper with US and NATO officials.

“An experiment was conducted within the framework of this survey. Using a random number generator, the respondents were divided into two equal groups, each of which was asked a question in one of two formulations. The experiment showed that the majority of respondents (70%) would support V[ladimir] Putin’s decision if the president decided to end the military conflict with Ukraine. However, if Putin decided to end the conflict on condition of the return of the annexed territories, only a third (34%) would support his actions.”

Source: https://www.levada.ru/

No Russian analysis has been published to date to extrapolate from this finding, and its presidential election context, to the way Russia’s General Staff, Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, and the Kremlin are working on their responses to the war against the Palestinians.

In the special session Putin called on Monday of the major ministries and security chiefs, he began by saying that “the Defense Minister [Sergei Shoigu] is back from his official trip abroad, and he will brief us on its outcomes and report on the progress of the special military operation.” Shoigu had just returned from China. What he said there in public was that Russia was fighting a world war on three fronts. The US-led allies were “covering up the buildup of military force in the Asia-Pacific region with an ostentatious desire for dialogue, imposing alliances and lines of operational interaction on partners…Having provoked an acute crisis in Europe, the West is seeking to spread conflict potential to the Asia-Pacific region, and in several directions.”

The war in Gaza is one of these “directions”, one of the war fronts, Shoigu said in Beijing; and Putin repeated the next day.

Left: Vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, General Zhang Youxia with Shoigu in Beijing on October 29. Right: Putin with Shoigu at extreme right in Moscow, October 30. The lead image is another Kremlin photograph of the same meeting.

“I will repeat again”, Putin said, “the ruling elites of the United States and its satellites are behind the tragedy of the Palestinians, the massacre in the Middle East in general, the conflict in Ukraine, and many other conflicts in the world – in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and so on. This has become obvious to everyone. It is they who install their military bases everywhere, who use military force on every pretext and without any pretext, who send weapons to conflict areas. They are also channelling financial resources, including to Ukraine and the Middle East, and fuelling hatred in Ukraine and the Middle East.”

“They are not achieving results on the battlefield, so they want to split us from within, as far as Russia is concerned, to weaken us and sow confusion. They do not want Russia to participate in solving any international or regional problems, including in the Middle East settlement. They are not satisfied at all when someone does not act or speak exactly as they are instructed. They believe only in their own exclusivity, in being allowed to do anything…I would like to say once again that we must realise where the root of evil lies. We must know where the spider that is trying to entangle the entire planet and the whole world in its cobweb is. It wants to ensure our strategic defeat on the battlefield, and it is using people on the territory of contemporary Ukraine who have been brainwashed by it for decades. I would like to stress once again that, while fighting this enemy in the course of the special military operation, we are boosting the positions of all those who are struggling for their independence and sovereignty.”

“We know and see how the Ukrainian leadership applauds the Nazis of the Second World War, who were guilty of the Holocaust victims, who personally took part in these crimes, and today, under the guidance of their Western patrons, are trying to instigate pogroms in Russia. By the way, I am not sure whether all the leading circles in the same states are aware of this. It would not be a bad idea for those who care so much about the citizens of Israel to investigate what their security services are doing in Ukraine, whether they are trying to instigate pogroms in Russia. Scum, that’s all. There is no other way to put it.”

“But those who really stand up for truth and justice, who fight against evil and oppression, against racism and neo-Nazism, which the West encourages, are now fighting at the front – near Donetsk, Avdeyevka, on the Dnieper. I repeat: these are our soldiers and officers. And the choice of a real man, a true warrior, is to take up arms and stand in line with his brothers, to be there where the fate of Russia and, indeed, of the whole world, including the future of the Palestinian people, is being decided.”

This is the first time in public Putin has linked the war goal of denazification of the Ukraine with the “future of the Palestinian people”. Putin is implying what the unpublished Russian polls show the majority of the country thinks – between the fascist regime in Kiev and the Israeli government in Tel Aviv, there is no difference.

This is as explicitly as Putin has gone since October 7 to rebuff the line in several of the state propaganda organs of Moscow that the Arab war is not Russia’s fight, and that Russia should stay out of it.

“There’s something much bigger left unsaid,” a well-informed Moscow source adds, “which puts the people behind the war effort in the last week, and that is what Israel is doing to Gaza. That is what Brits and Americans did to Dresden and Hiroshima. That is what Germans did to Leningrad and Stalingrad. Russians, accused of anti-semitism and sympathy for Hamas by the usual media mouthpieces put two and two together and understand what awaited Russians of Donbass. They see Gaza and understand the race hatred and cruelty of the western axis. The bombing of Gaza reminds Russians what was done to their grandparents and what would be done to them if they do not win this war.”

What remains secret, Moscow sources caution, is the situation assessment of the General Staff now that the IDF is establishing a massive armoured force across northern Gaza; how Hamas plans to fight on from the tunnels; and how long the Palestinian forces can hold out before Hezbollah, the West Bank Palestinians, and the Arab-Iranian units on the Golan front will launch their promised counter-offensive. That is, if (repeat if) they move as they have been publicly threatening to do.

MAP OF ISRAELI AND PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES, IDF MOVES INTO GAZA

TO ENLARGE AND READ, CLICK ON TABLE.
Source: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/71709?single

“The moral high ground is already held by Russia as Putin has just said,” a Moscow source comments, “while the state propaganda line portrays Russia as against ‘terrorism’, ‘genocide’, and ‘fascism’.” On the battlefield, he says, the situation is “far more grim. The satellite pictures show they [IDF] now have about 400 vehicles in total. They will overrun all of North Gaza while flooding or gassing the tunnels.”

For how long can Hamas defend against this without the opening of the other fronts to force the diversion of the IDF, stretch the US rearm and resupply capacities even further, and lengthen the war? There are pro-Russian military veteran sources who believe not long enough. “The Iranians are showing themselves to be blowhards. Hezbollah is afraid of the US response. Both know they risk losing power and position if the war escalates. Israel has called their bluff. Islamic ‘unity’ is proving to be hollow — a dead end.”

The Moscow source concurs. “When this is over, it will take away any chance of change to status quo for at least a decade. The only defeat it appears will still come in Ukraine but not in Palestine.

The Levada poll reveals that Russian public opinion trusts the Army to do what’s best, and Putin to say what’s right.

Anglozionism

Gaza is G for Genocide

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Craig Mokhiber, director of human rights body, resigned a few days ago after accusing the US, UK and much of Europe as ‘wholly complicit in the horrific assault’:

–  In this case, the intent by Israeli leaders has been so explicitly stated and publicly stated by the prime minister, by the president, by senior cabinet ministers, by military leaders… It’s on the public record. What I see unfolding on Gaza is Genocide.

Western Hegemony's Collapse

Biden: A Multi-Generation Order, Now

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The US President noted that times when the world is changing very quickly happen “once in six or eight generations”

The events of the next couple of years in the international arena will determine the shape of the world for at least half a century ahead. This opinion was expressed on Thursday at a meeting with Chilean President Gabriel Borich at the White House by his US counterpart Joe Biden.

“In my opinion, there are times – perhaps once every six or eight generations – when the world changes extremely quickly,” the US president said.

“We are going through such times now,” Borich believes.

“I think what happens in the next two or three years will determine what the world will look like in the next five or six decades,” Biden said.

Anglozionism

Israel Does Not Have the Right to Self-Defense as an Occupying Power

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Israel does not have the right to self-defense as an occupying power, this is confirmed by the conclusion of the International Court of Justice in 2004, said Vasily Nebenzya. At the same time, he emphasized that the Russian Federation recognizes Israel’s right to ensure its security.

Palestine previously stated that Israel does not have the right to self-defense. Almost all major players in the political world (USA, Italy, Spain, Britain, Canada, etc.) hold the opposite opinion, although many of them with the caveat that this right does not allow the Jewish state to kill civilians.

Anglozionism

Jewish Police Brutality in Jerusalem Against Jews

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Israeli security forces today raided an anti-Zionist Jewish neighborhood in Jerusalem ( Mea Shearim, there is such a place) to remove Palestinian flags.

‘Meanwhile Biden and his top aides discussed the possibility that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political days are numbered, writes Politico.

The topic of “Netanyahu’s short remaining political shelf life” has come up in recent White House meetings involving Biden, two senior administration officials said. This includes discussions that took place following Biden’s trip to Israel, where he met with Netanyahu.

Biden went so far as to invite Netanyahu to consider lessons he would share with his eventual successor, the two administration officials added.

Anglozionism

Ukraine Advances On the Diplomatic Front

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Sergei Markov writes:

Malta. There was a big conference on Ukraine. Russian media unanimously write that Zelensky failed there. But that’s not true.
This is not a meeting, this is a process, this is a project. And he has several tasks that he performs.
1. Create a platform for permanent dialogue between the Collective West and the Global South on the Ukrainian crisis. In order to at some point use this platform in the interests of the Collective West, forcing the Global South to join this. 2. Institutionalize this platform. Make it essentially an organization.
3. Put the US plan, which they formally gave to Zelensky, at the center of the discussions, calling it “Zelensky’s peace plan.” Although this is not Zelensky’s plan, and not peace, but the surrender of Russia.
4. So far they have succeeded. The third big meeting took place. And there will be a 4th.
5. There were 15 countries in Copenhagen. In Jida there are already 43. In Malta there are already 66.
6. 5 working groups have been created in the areas of the “Zelensky plan” and discussions are taking place there. That is, it is already a permanent organization with its own structure.
7. All these discussions are strictly anti-Russian. For example, there is a safety group at Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. It seems like what is there to discuss? It is clear to everyone that the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant has one security threat – nuclear terrorism from Zelensky. But they are discussing, as you understand, something else – how to gradually transfer control over the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant to the Kyiv regime using cunning tricks.
8. The fact that China and Egypt did not participate is good. But these are temporary difficulties of the project. 9. Overall, this US effort is going well.
10. Trying to portray the enemy’s success as a failure is not the path to victory.
11. One of the goals of this format for the United States is, if the Russian army begins an offensive, to organize enormous pressure on Russia with the participation of these 66 countries, including the Global South, to demand that Russia stop the offensive and conclude “Minsk 3.”
12. We need to prepare for such a turn, and not convince ourselves that they are a failure. Unfortunately, they are not a failure.
13. Remember how we spent 8 years telling ourselves fairy tales that the Kiev regime was about to collapse? Collapsed? Don’t lie to yourself.

Eastern Europe Awakening

Meanwhile, What is Putin Saying?

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Putin on the situation in the Gaza Strip:

 “We see that instead of punishing terrorists, Israel began to take revenge on the principle of collective responsibility… These bombings cannot be justified in any way. We must understand who is organizing the deadly chaos. Who benefits from it? The United States and its satellites are the main beneficiaries of global instability.

The terrible events in the Gaza Strip cannot be justified by anything 
US ruling elites, not achieving success on the battlefield, are trying to weaken Russia from within 
When you look at bloodied, dead children, the suffering of the elderly, the death of doctors in the Middle East – your fists clench, but emotions are unacceptable
The key to resolving the conflict in the Middle East is the creation of a sovereign, full-fledged Palestinian state.
The US needs constant chaos in the Middle East, so they discredit those who are ready to stop the bloodshed, even the UN is being persecuted
The USA as a world superpower is weakening, losing its position, the “American world” with its hegemon is becoming a thing of the past, but the United States does not want to acknowledge this
Putin – about the unrest in Makhachkala,Dagestan:
 “The events in Makhachkala were inspired through social networks, including from the territory of Ukraine, by the hands of Western intelligence services. But I have to ask a question – is it possible to help Palestine by attacking Mountain Jews? Which are the titular nation of Dagestan. We can only help Palestine by fighting those who are really behind this tragedy.”
US does not need lasting peace in the Holy Land 
Russia today is not only participating in shaping a new multipolar world but also fighting for a new world on the battlefield.‌‌
Special military operation soldiers are fighting evil and oppression, where the future of the whole world, including Palestine, is being decided.
The one responsible for all the problems in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and Ukraine is the United States.
The stronger and more united Russia is, the better we will be able to protect our interests and the interests of countries that have become victims of neo-colonialism.”
Anglozionism

Regarding the Possibility of Evicting Palestinians to Egypt.

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Several Israeli politicians, analysts, some of them who served as personal advisors to Benjamin Netanyahu, have, in the open and in secret, called for the eviction of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai, and sometimes, as far away as the mainland of Egypt.

This is not a new thing, in 2010, to be specific, October, an audio recording of Mubarak with his cabinet was leaked, most likely by the Egyptian state itself, where Mubarak detailed a meeting he had with Netanyahu, where Netanyahu vaguely suggested the idea of displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to “someplace else”, when Mubarak asked him where exactly, Netanyahu waved his hand over the Sinai without a comment, Mubarak then said he told him “It is not going to happen”, and proceeded to cut his meeting short.

◾️So we know this was discussed as far back as 2010.

In 2008, Hamas blew up several gaps in the Egyptian-Gaza border, and over 1.5 million Palestinians went to the Egyptian border, with at least 200-300 thousand intending to stay in Sinai, they were then properly hunted down and evicted back to Gaza, with coordination of Hamas, over three months, it seems Netanyahu got the idea of the 2010 meeting in 2008, as 300K Palestinians were a very sizeable part of the population.

Besides the obvious fact that the Palestinian cause was at danger at the time, the 2008 breach allowed for a massive upwards of smuggling, terrorism, and so on, but what most importantly irked Mubarak was the fact that the Egyptian economy took a devastating blow – tens of millions of fake US dollars were added into the circulation during that time from Gaza.

◾️So we know for a fact that Egypt will not allow the eviction of Palestinians from Gaza due to, 1) The Palestinian Cause requiring Palestinians to stay in their land, and this is agreed by all sides, 2) The potential political and economic repercussions of a massive ethnic cleansing from Gaza.

◾️On the other hand, the head of the Palestinian Authority, the current Egyptian President, and several European leaders stated that Morsi, the former Egyptian president who was overthrown in a revolution in 2013, stated that he was willing to house the Palestinians from Gaza and establish a Greater Gaza stretching from Al-Arish to Gaza proper, this plan was approved by Israel and Europe, however, it did not come to fruition.

◾️Finally, the president that came after him, Sisi, then made a complete ban on owning land from non-Egyptians in the Sinai, forced Hamas to purge itself from the Muslim Brotherhood. Cooperation between the two was established again at the full level after 2017, again, all sides agreed that an ethnic displacement of Palestinians into Sinai will never happen, this is why the PA and Hamas rejected Morsi’s proposal.

In Conclusion, The People of Gaza will live, grow old, and die on their Palestinian lands, and this reality will not change no matter what.

On a different note,

There are reports that Israel is proposing to write off a significant portion of Egypt’s international debts through the World Bank to entice Egypt to open the borders and allow the displacement of Palestinians to Sinai.

Genuine question, did Israel just admit that they, a Jewish state, control the International Financial System, a theory which was considered anti-Semitic for literally decades?

I mean, we all knew it, but I never expected them to be honest about it, they are REALLY desparate and are trying everything on Egypt.

Egypt, for the sake of its own morals, must NOT accept this deal.

@themediterraneanman

*****************************
There are also strong economic reasons why Israel wants to eliminate the Palestinians from Gaza – gas of course. 

But it is deeper than than that. Israel opens these gas concessions, some in disputed territory, to outside investors, and not just for financial and technical reasons, but to bind investors into its Zionist project and engage them as lobbyists. 

Here are some headlines (a bit older but still relevant):

Israel awards gas exploration licenses to ENI, BP and 4 others

The unrealized potential of Palestinian oil and gas reserves

Israel grants Golan Heights oil license

Saving Europeans from Themselves

Patrushev: US’ Strategy – Keep Russia out and Europe Down

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Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev:

✔️ Russia has long been trying to build itself into international technological chains, creating conditions for mutually beneficial economic cooperation, and undertaking obligations to allow foreign suppliers access to its market. The U.S., using the Ukrainian crisis, achieved the rupture of Europe’s economic relations with Russia and the elimination of economic competitors. They are solving their own economic problems at the expense of other countries.

✔️ To prevent Europe from getting gas from Russia, they blew up the Nord Streams. They have already imposed several packages of illegitimate sanctions against our country. They deliberately restricted our access to critical and advanced technologies. First of all, the electronic component base, high-tech machine building, aircraft construction, shipbuilding, equipment and technologies for the fuel and energy complex are under attack.

✔️ Representatives of NATO countries are already saying that Russia has prevented them from approaching Russia’s borders, and Ukrainians are a tool for the West to contain Russia. Due to such actions, the credit of trust in the US and the countries of the collective West is exhausted.

✔️ It is no coincidence that the US president said that military aid to Ukraine and Israel is a wise investment that will benefit American security for generations to come. The U.S. has provoked and continues to fuel the situation in the Middle East through its policies. In the same way, they are acting in Ukraine, where they provoked a coup d’état, indulged in the imposition of neo-Nazi ideology, turned Ukraine into a testing ground for military and biological experiments, turned a blind eye to the killing of civilians in Donbas and prepared for military action against our country. Under these conditions, Russia stood up to protect the population of Donbas and did not allow aggressive plans to be carried out.

✔️ It is precisely Washington’s policy that has provoked the current catastrophic aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and has already led to huge civilian casualties. Instead of promoting the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the U.S. on the contrary contributes to its escalation by supplying arms and sending aircraft carriers to the region. In doing so, they are pursuing the goals of maintaining global dominance and ensuring their security.

Anglozionism

When the Devil Drives, What Needs Come First?

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By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with

In the war at this stage, the Israeli-American force for genocidal killing and displacement of the Palestinians of Gaza appears to be winning. Not on the ground so much as in the consent of their western allies to supply the logistics, pay the bills, and endorse the morality of the crimes.

By the time William Shakespeare picked up the idea that force can compel consent, the maxim he made popular had already been expressed in English for two hundred years. In All’s Well That Ends Well, he has the Countess ask her clown why he wants to marry. He replies: “My poor body, madam, requires it: I am driven on by the flesh; and he must needs go that the devil drives.” Usually left out of this famous exchange is that the jester explained he had “other holy reasons”. The Countess liked hearing them even less, so she sent him off stage.

In the Gaza operations so far, and in the ideology which Israeli officials and journalists are repeating to the western media, the devil aims to drive every Palestinian, the born and the as yet unborn, to death. In such a war the first need for Hamas and the Arabs is to survive in order to keep fighting. Nothing is more sure than the “holy reasons” Shakespeare put into the mouth of Lavatch the Clown, that surviving to fight the long war will defeat this devil’s needs in the end.

In practical politics, Israel and the US either win their genocidal war swiftly now, or else they will lose the long war. Russian military sources are reporting the US is resupplying the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at a rate of two US Air Force (USAF) transports every hour, moving from the continental US through bases in the UK, Germany, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus. US sources have acknowledged the logistical effort is too great to continue for long. Right now the US Navy and USAF cannot continue delivering on the promised resupply of the Ukrainian forces in their war against Russia, while at US bases in Syria and Iraq the Pentagon is privately evacuating troops while publicly striking at their Arab attackers.

The Arab, Iranian, and Russian media are reporting that in response, Hamas and Hezbollah are maintaining a frequent rate of fire against IDF and Israeli territorial targets. They are not yet attacking Israel’s offshore gas production platforms, which provide most of the fuel for the country’s electricity generating plants. They are not yet disabling Israel’s ports and airfields. The Russian military assessment is that for the time being the Hamas and Hezbollah capacity remains intact and in reserve. The Arab side is exercising restraint.

What then are the needs which must now be addressed by the allies of the Palestinians, the Arab states, Iran, and then Russia?

On Sunday, Russia officially called this war “the American project”. This followed the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) vote last Friday, October 27, when the US and Israel led a tiny minority in favour of their short war, including a half-dozen island states sinking slowly into the Pacific Ocean.

A Moscow source confirms the US is the priority Russian target because the IDF cannot continue in Gaza as the US capabilities exhaust themselves. He believes that US over-exertion in the Middle East will accelerate the Russian military’s move on to the offensive on the Ukrainian battlefield, and shorten thereby that war. The public statements for mediation between the warring parties issued by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his ministry are not the full Russian story, the source believes. The first need in Lavrov’s mediation, he says, is between the General Staff and the Kremlin. The second priority is to let the Americans demonstrate their weakness across the region by conserving the Palestinians in place, deterring Egyptian and Jordanian concessions, and preventing a direct attack on Iran. “The real Russian position , not the public statements , ultimately comes down to what level of military cooperation the Ministry of Defense has with Teheran. The Syrian and Ukrainian wars have made this very deep. I expect the Foreign Ministry’s public line will change when the Palestinian casualties reach 20,000. As the official Israeli statements against the Russian government already make clear, they know what is going on behind the scenes. It’s not just the Caucasian Muslims now but most Russians feel there’s been enough crying support for Israel. Lavrov will catch up.”

“I would say the real work now in Moscow is on ensuring the Americans do not directly attack Iran. The rest is going to play out according to the General Staff’s road map Lavrov could and should have in front of him. Call it the long war for short.”