Putin is losing the weirdest war in 150 years

by Mark Brolin via The Telegraph

Mark Brolin is a geopolitical strategist and the author of ’Healing Broken Democracies: All You Need to Know About Populism’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/10/28/putin-is-losing-the-weirdest-war-in-150-years/

The Ukraine conflict has descended into farce. But behind the fog, Russia’s desperate state is becoming ever clearer

Lord Palmerston is famously said to have joked of the 1864 Danish-German war that only three people ever understood the reason behind it: one who had died, one who went mad, and the third who had forgotten. If that conflict once felt like the apex of strategic absurdity, the Russia-Ukraine war has somehow raised the bar.

Consider the behaviour of the main parties.

First up is team Putin, which hoped to showcase strength and strategic mastery by seizing Ukraine. So how did that turn out? Well, the bubble of 19th century Kremlin yes-men turned out to know so little about the ways of the real world that Moscow’s sphere of influence has contracted across the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe, with Finland and Sweden joining Nato, and Russia drifting closer to becoming a de facto Chinese vassal state. Moscow has been losing its Western oil markets, while its supposedly mighty army has only managed to gain control of a fraction of Ukrainian territory. This has come at vast human and economic cost, with no persuasive case as to why the world’s largest country needed those extra square miles.

Then there is Ukraine and president Zelensky. There is, of course, nothing bizarre about Kyiv’s heroic fight to drive back the Russians. If only the same could be said about its efforts to keep America in the fight. Ukraine has tended to frame the case urgently: help now, or the consequences would be dire, including the threat of Moscow starting a world war. But today’s Russia is a dwarf next to the US in every respect besides the nuclear bombs that even Putin knows he cannot use. Exaggerating Russia’s strength has not helped Ukraine in the court of American opinion.

Next comes Europe. For years, many European countries disarmed while deepening energy dependence on one of their main adversaries, while ignoring explicit warnings from countries like Poland and Ukraine. They lectured about principles while buying Russian oil, thereby funding the very war machine they condemned. Despite the war in Europe and their own sclerotic economies, European leaders continue to moralise as if they are somehow sitting on top of the best recipe for peace and prosperity on the planet.

Finally, there’s the US and its president. Donald Trump’s opening gambit in his attempt to achieve peace in Ukraine was to push for Moscow’s desired end-state (telling Ukraine to cede stolen ground and ditch its hopes of joining Nato even before sitting down at the negotiating table). Then came the Tomahawk episode: for a few days, Trump brandished the threat of giving Ukraine these long-range missiles. Just as the threat seemed to work – when the Kremlin reached for the phone – it was oddly withdrawn. So leverage was first applied and then removed in a heartbeat.

All of this makes this conflict feel so odd that it can drive anyone who prizes logic and consistency a little mad.

Yet despite all the frustrating backsliding, the forces of reason might just be winning out. Inch by inch, Europe and the United States are, for the first time, pushing back in concert in a significant way. Europe is rearming; its energy dependence on Russia is falling; frozen Russian reserves are being explored as a way of funding for Ukraine; and recent US policy moves have tightened the oil squeeze. Chinese and Indian energy firms appear to be acting more cautiously than before while, seemingly not without reason, afraid of second tier sanctions. The West continues to supply Ukraine with crucial technological, logistical and intelligence support.

Perhaps most significantly, the myth of “Great Power” Russia may at least be about to be punctured. This myth let the Kremlin swagger, and encouraged Europe to act like cowards. It allowed appeasers and Russian apologists to demand that Ukraine “adapt to the facts” – conveniently ignoring the equally important facts about Russia. Here are a few:

Russia’s war-economy is overheating

Year-on-year inflation ran about 8pc in September (Russian source), with prices re-accelerating into the autumn. This is a classic symptom of a state-directed wartime splurge, not durable strength. The Russian central bank has set interest rates at almost 17pc – a banana-republic number.

Guns are crowding out butter

Moscow’s 2025 plan lifted defence to roughly a third of total spending and around 6pc of GDP – levels that squeeze everything else and lock in future austerity.

Moscow is bleeding manpower

Estimates vary, but some credible sources put Russian deaths at more than 200,000 (Feb 2022 – Aug 2025), while total casualties (deaths and wounded) are thought to have exceeded 1.1 million by October 2025; Nato has estimated that around 100,000 Russians have died in 2025 alone. However you slice it, losses are highly likely to be dwarfing sustainable replacement.

Economic growth is an illusion built on war outlays

Russia has been posting positive GDP figures, but these have been driven by state orders and price spikes, fuel for today’s inflation and tomorrow’s hangover. Even senior Russian bankers are now warning about the economic situation, as softer oil assumptions and Ukrainian refinery strikes erode profits from Russia’s core asset.

The labour supply is being squeezed

Unemployment sits at historic lows because workers are scarce; almost a million Russians are thought to have left after 2022, deepening shortages.

This has exacerbated the brain drain

The Russian people are among Europe’s poorest and unhealthiest (the average life span for males is around ten years lower than within EU countries). Freedom of expression? A joke that is not only a human but also an economic tragedy. Understandably many of the brightest and richest have left the country for greener pastures – taking both their brains and capital with them.

Russia’s dependence on China is deepening

Around 35-40pc of Russia’s trade now runs through China; Beijing is by far the top buyer of Russian energy, but trade growth has been hampered by Chinese payment hurdles, underscoring Moscow’s weaker hand. The fact that Russian business has no straightforward access to any competitive market economy is another hardly envious position. This is starting to hit home in all sorts of respects. For example, aviation safety has deteriorated as carriers “cannibalise” grounded planes for parts; more than half of Western-built aircraft could be parked by 2026 without spares. That is what high-tech isolation looks like.

Return fire is now hitting deep inside Russia

Even without Tomahawks, Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities – long-range drones, Storm Shadow/SCALP, Atacms – are now regularly hitting air bases, refineries, logistics hubs and the Black Sea coastline. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been degraded, dispersed, and pushed east; Crimea, once a sanctuary, is a firing range. The war has been brought to the Russians.

None of this argues for rewarding aggression with land – or for the idea that Russia can “comfortably fight for years”. It argues for tightening the screws that actually matter: enforcing the oil price cap and hitting shippers/insurers, choking off machine-tool and dual-use inputs, and allowing even deeper Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s logistics aorta. Thankfully, all this is finally happening.

The real danger for Ukraine is that the Russian situation is so dire that Putin might personally want to prolong the war, regardless of the cost. When focus returns to the domestic situation, the spotlight will swing to a mess of his own making: inflation, shortages, a shrinking workforce, and a kleptocracy that cannot modernise. If he keeps fighting, the bill might grow, the body count might climb and the backlash might be even greater once the guns stop firing, but he can at least postpone the problem for another day.

In short, Putin may no longer be living in reality, but in a bizarre version curated by the yes-men around him. That is why pressure must be kept up: to make the reality of his situation impossible to ignore.

Big News, Behind the Headlines

This is BIG! It explains Trump’s erratic changes, why no meeting with Putin in Budapest, why Dmitriev is in panic trip to the US, why Netanyahu is under pressure by Trump, etc., etc.

Fear of Vote on Releasing Epstein Files is Keeping the U.S. Government Shut Down!

Mike Johnson and Melania Trump Sued Over Epstein Scandal!

Updates from the week on the Epstein Scandal. The one issue Donald Trump wishes would go away, but is picking up steam. Follow the link below.

 

400 prominent Jews call for sanctions on Israel

Hundreds of prominent Jewish figures across the world have called on the UN and global leaders to impose sanctions on Israel over what they describe as “unconscionable” actions in Gaza that they say amount to genocide.

An open letter urging governments to hold Israel accountable for alleged violations of international law in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem garnered more than 450 signatories, including former Israeli officials, intellectuals, and artists. The letter coincides with reports that EU leaders may abandon plans to introduce sanctions against Israel during a summit in Brussels on Thursday.

“We have not forgotten that so many of the laws, charters, and conventions established to safeguard and protect all human life were created in response to the Holocaust,” the signatories wrote. “Those safeguards have been relentlessly violated by Israel.”

The appeal includes former Knesset speaker Avraham Burg, Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy, authors Michael Rosen and Naomi Klein, Oscar-winning filmmaker Jonathan Glazer, actors Wallace Shawn and Ilana Glazer, and philosopher Omri Boehm. The group has urged world leaders to enforce International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court rulings, halt arms sales, and impose targeted sanctions on Israeli officials and entities complicit in alleged crimes.

Israeli security minister pushes to resume Gaza warREAD MORE: Israeli security minister pushes to resume Gaza war
The petition follows a shift in public opinion among American Jews and voters more broadly. A recent poll by the Washington Post found that 61% of US Jews believe Israel has committed war crimes in Gaza, and 39% say it is committing genocide. A separate Quinnipiac survey in August found that half of US voters hold the same view.

Ominous Threats by Russia

Ed. Notes: This article by traitor Gilbert Doctorow is meant to paint a parallel scenario to Israel’s genocide in Gaza, only that is addressed to the Western European leaders. Submit to our demands or we will turn you to dust. This is the peace loving Russia, the country occupying a people who don’t want to be occupied. Notice the words “the population should be warned to evacuate the city ahead of Russia’s bombing them flat”. Although this is not a war (sarc).

The question of the value of using Russian state television as a means of divining which way the Kremlin is headed on key foreign policy issues has been highly contentious in the Alternative Media community. Some peers mock the idea, saying that the talking heads are irrelevant and that their own personal contacts with some Russian General or presidential advisor in retirement is the real way to understand what is going on behind the closed doors of Vladimir Putin’s offices. Others think they get in from the source from having a private audience with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Then among the trolls who send in Comments to the Russian-dubbed versions of ‘Judging Freedom’ or the Glenn Diesen channel you see claims that state television no longer is watched by the majority of the population, especially the young, who get their news from social media. That may be noteworthy if the purpose of any given broadcast is to influence the broad public, but it entirely misses the point if the purpose of the broadcast is to send a message to Washington.

To all these dissenters on the proper methodology to be used by Russia watchers, I submit that the proof is in the pudding. Last night’s news in The Financial Times, backed up by coverage in this morning’s BBC provides irrefutable evidence that Mr. Solovyov’s program is backed by the Putin government not only as a safety valve for Opposition criticism but at times as an unofficial channel for setting out the strident nationalist positions that the President himself will not say publicly.

“Trump urged Zelensky to accept Putin’s terms or ‘be destroyed.’ This article in the FT explains in detail how in their closed-door meeting in the White House President Trump raged at Zelensky, insisting that his country’s survival depends on submitting to Vladimir Putin’s terms for peace, beginning with the surrender of all of the Donbas, including the territory not yet overrun by Russian troops.

I call special attention to the words ‘be destroyed.’

I quote from the article: “According to a European official with knowledge of the meeting, Trump told Zelensky that Putin had told him the conflict was a ‘special operation, not even a war, adding that the Ukrainian leader needed to cut a deal or face destruction.”

This is precisely what Solovyov was saying on air in his program of 14 October, three days before the Trump-Zelensky meeting. Per Solovyov, Russia should stop pussy-footing and face the reality that it was at war with Ukraine, that the Ukrainians were doing all in their power to inflict harm on the Russian Federation and Russia should now respond in kind, raising Ukrainian cities to the ground. Humane solicitude for the Ukrainian population could be shown only after Russian military and political victory was completed.

In parallel, we may assume that a similar message was being delivered directly to Team Trump via the backchannels that Russian diplomat to the UN Dmitry Polyansky told Glenn Diesen in an interview a couple of days ago, are working just fine.

Solovyov went on to say that in Kiev and other cities, the population should be warned to evacuate the city ahead of Russia’s bombing them flat. He also extended the same advice to the populations of cities in Western Europe, like Brussels, where there are factories manufacturing weapons and munitions that are being supplied to Ukraine. So far, that additional warning appears not to have been passed to European leaders, though here in Brussels I am told by a Flemish insider journalist that Prime Minister Bart De Wever is shaking in his boots.

The role of the Solovyov show as communicator of Kremlin thinking does not end there, as was evident on last night’s show. In a discussion with a frequent guest panelist on the show, Lt. General Yevgeny Buzhinsky, Solovyov listened to the general’s account of how in the last week Russian drone, missile and glide bomb attacks all across Ukraine had reached the highest level of intensity in the Special Military Operation to date, destroying vast swathes of the Ukrainian electricity infrastructure. Solovyov then asked him wouldn’t it make more sense to concentrate this firepower on a very limited geographical space like the urban centers Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, heavily fortified centers in the middle of Donetsk oblast that stand in the way of a Russian army sweep across the plain to the Dnieper River? Wouldn’t it make more sense to heavily bomb central Kiev, after which the greater part of the population would flee the city, creating total chaos for the Zelensky regime and for the Western countries where these unwelcome refugees would arrive?

Buzhinsky is a professional Russian officer who feels very uncomfortable agreeing to ideas like these which contain a sharp reprimand to the General Staff and to the Supreme Commander (Putin), but nevertheless he agreed with Solovyov. It can be easily imagined that this kind of change in execution of the SMO was communicated to Team Trump in the past week ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting in the White House.

For all of these reasons, there is reason to hope for a productive summit in Budapest and for an end to the war on Russia’s terms in the near future.

A corollary to all the foregoing is that President Putin himself has cardinally changed his position on how to deal with Trump and with the Europeans. Yes, as my peers will say, this was arrived at in a collegial way. BUT the point is not collegiality in decision making. It is that discontent in the political establishment outside the Kremlin with the go-slow, softly-softly approach to the war of President Putin and its prospects for dragging on for years while Europe reindustrialized and rearmed had reached a critical point threatening the stability of the Putin presidency.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

The Axis is Desperate

It seems that Putin used the occasion of the Gaza ceasefire to call Trump with some new proposal and capitalize on Trump’s euphoria. Already Orban sent his sidekick, his so-called foreign minister, to Moscow to propose such a meeting in Budapest between Putin and Trump.

Both are desperate enough to end a losing policy for them in Ukraine and surely would be happy to jump at any possible face-saving opportunity. But the positions of the combatants are totally at opposite ends. 

So will there be a meeting in Budapest? Maybe, but most likely not.

Even if there is a meeting, will there be any agreement? Maybe, but most likely not.

Russia demands Ukraine’s capitulation which Trump is ready to grant. And Ukraine/Europeans want the defeat of Russia, which Putin is not going to accept.

While on the battleground Russia is making small, incremental advances, Europe is just getting out of its post WWII fog, waking up to its own potential. It sees Russia as menacing, and it sees the US as a paper tiger, a former superpower. Europe is the giant who is getting back on its feet.

Why would Europe be cowering before a third-world Russia with nukes? Besides, Europe has its own, second or third level nuclear deterrence force.

The Trump-Putin-Orban clown act is just a desperate circus show.

C. S.

For more details on the fire situation of the Russian Army see Igor Streaks report right from the heart of the Russia.

 

and this

Trump’s War Against ‘Left-leaning’ Groups Extends Further

via MoA

There are a number of indicators which lets one predict that the Trump administration, during the next election, will use government forces to severely attack and disrupt all opposition to it.

Trump has send the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents into the cities to harass and arrest alleged illegal immigrants. Due cause is disregarded and the methods used by the agents are brutal.

Trump has also sent National Guard troops into cities where, he claimed, riots were taking place. There were no riots or ‘terrorist incidents’ but the presence of troops is used to create a militarized atmosphere.

A new National Security Presidential Memorandum, NSPM-7 issued by Trump has defined new classes of internal enemies:

With the mainstream media distracted by the made-for-TV drama of James Comey’s indictment, Trump has signed a little-noticed national security directive identifying “anti-Christian” and “anti-American” views as indicators of radical left violence.

In NSPM-7, “Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence,” President Trump directs the Justice Department, the FBI, and other national security agencies and departments to fight his version of political violence in America, retooling a network of Joint Terrorism Task Forces to focus on “leftist” political violence in America. This vast counterterrorism army, made up of federal, state, and local agents would, as Trump aide Stephen Miller said, form “the central hub of that effort.”

The Trump administration isn’t only targeting organizations or groups but even individuals and “entities” whom NSPM-7 says can be identified by any of the following “indicia” (indicators) of violence:
anti-Americanism,
anti-capitalism,
anti-Christianity,
support for the overthrow of the United States Government,
extremism on migration,
extremism on race,
extremism on gender,
hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on family,
hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on religion, and
hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on morality.
“The United States requires a national strategy to investigate and disrupt networks, entities, and organizations that foment political violence so that law enforcement can intervene in criminal conspiracies before they result in violent political acts,” the directive states (emphasis mine).

That all may sound laughable but these are unfortunately serious policies . The target list includes organizations which do not exist:

The FBI and the homeland security department are actively investigating “Antifa” individuals and organizations that the Trump administration has branded domestic terrorists. Actions so far include collecting intelligence on Antifa “affinity” groups, canvassing the FBI’s vast informant network for tips about Antifa, and scrutinizing financial records, two sources involved in the investigations tell me.

There are no ‘antifa’ organizations. ‘Antifa’ is the idea of fighting indications of fascism. From time to time local interest groups may claim to do so for this or that reason. This category ‘antifa’ was likely chosen because it can be applied to any group that opposes government policies.

Today Yves Smith reports of another enforcement agency that Trump will use to destroy opposition to him:

The war against Trump’s perceived political enemies keeps escalating. The Wall Street Journal provides new detail on how the Trump Administration intends to use an IRS criminal unit, whose members bear arms, as part of his campaign against “left-leaning” organizations. This fallows a Reuters account describing how the Trump Administration intends to use the Department of Justice and DHS to pursue “left wing” groups that allegedly fomented violence.

Now to the press accounts. Key sections from the Journal’s report:
The Trump administration is preparing sweeping changes at the Internal Revenue Service that would allow the agency to pursue criminal inquiries of left-leaning groups more easily, according to people familiar with the matter.
A senior IRS official involved in the effort has drawn up a list of potential targets that includes major Democratic donors, some of the people said.
The undertaking aims to install allies of President Trump at the IRS criminal-investigative division, or IRS-CI, to exert firmer control over the unit and weaken the involvement of IRS lawyers in criminal investigations, officials said. The proposed changes could open the door to politically motivated probes…
Among those on the list are the billionaire Democratic donor George Soros and his affiliated groups…

Many on the left will not mind any attack on George Soros as his organization is well know for financing foreign color revolutions against legitimate leftist rulers. We can however be assured that Trump wont stop with them:

The list includes Soros’ Open Society Foundations; ActBlue, the funding arm of the Democratic Party; Indivisible, a grassroots coalition opposed to Trump policies and the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, a Los Angeles-based group.

Other groups on the list include two Jewish nonprofits that oppose Israel’s war in Gaza – IfNotNow and Jewish Voice for Peace.

There is unfortunately little institutional or political opposition that can restrain Trump:

The push against domestic groups and their donors comes amid Trump’s attacks on law firms, universities and the media, and his deployment of National Guard troops to some Democratic-run cities.

Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian and former director of the Richard Nixon presidential library, said Trump and Nixon were similar in their desire to punish political enemies and silence critics, but a pliant Republican-controlled Congress and a cabinet packed with loyalists are enabling Trump to go further.
“That’s why this particular moment is more dangerous for the rule of law in the United States than the 1970s were,” Naftali said.

All these are ominous signs that Trumps war on the political opposition will escalate further. Seymour Hersh’s sources are warning of this:

What’s happening now may be a trial run for the use of those forces to interfere on the behalf of the president and the Republican Party in states where the Democratic Party has a chance to win crucial seats in next fall’s Congressional elections. I’ve been told by someone with inside knowledge that planning for such action is now under way in the White House.

The ‘coerced dominance’ that has marked Trump’s brutal approach to foreign policy will now being applied to domestic issues and legitimate opposition.

Russell Vought, Trumps’s Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff for policy, are the men behind this.

The scary thing is that there is, so far, little or any opposition to these plans and only few warnings about their consequences.

The Zionist Axis is in Panic Mode

Quite interesting to see how Putin’s people admit that they completely misread the European grand front against Russia. It is also bizarre to constantly read about the “militarization” of Europe, when it was and it is Russia and its president who have been constantly boasting about Russia’s military might, Russia’s ability to wipe out any European city in the blink of an eye. So, who is the warmonger here?

Furthermore, Zionist Putin’s bet on his friends Netanyahu, Trump and Orban seems to be misplaced as US power is crumbling so is support for Netanyahu, while Orban is on his last last legs. The “peace” in Gaza arranged by Trump at the last minute shows the panic at the White House. They have bigger worries coming up the international pipelines and China is just wagging its finger at the misbehaving Trump.

Now is Ushakov’s turn to show panic. See below from RT:

European nations appear to be united in a collective anti-Russian frenzy, which precludes even the possibility of dialogue with Moscow, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov has said.

Speaking to Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin on Sunday, the official admitted that he was “surprised… by the extent of lies, brazen lies” about Russia being peddled by European politicians.

”And I am of course surprised that against a backdrop of these lies, against a backdrop of hatred [of Russia], Europeans could become so consolidated,” Ushakov stated. The Russian presidential aide added that he could not have imagined that “Europe would speak with one voice vis-à-vis Russia – an extremely belligerent, extremely negative [voice].”

According to the official, this approach leaves no room for even an attempt to engage Moscow diplomatically on the part of much of Europe.

The US does not seem to exert much influence over its European allies, as the “extent of… united hatred of the Europeans toward Russia is such that it is hard to ‘bore’ through this hatred even with an American drill,” Ushakov insisted.

Germany’s leaders share Hitler’s goals – LavrovREAD MORE: Germany’s leaders share Hitler’s goals – Lavrov
Speaking of the prospects for the Ukraine peace process, he accused the authorities in Kiev of being unwilling to end hostilities.

According to the Russian presidential aide, the understanding reached between Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, in Alaska in August is the “guiding star” in terms of resolving the Ukraine conflict.

Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi last Thursday, President Putin accused Western Europe of continuing to “whip up hysteria that war with the Russians is supposedly on the doorstep” and condemned rampant militarization on the continent.

He dismissed such concerns as a “nonsense mantra,” suggesting that European leaders shift their focus to domestic issues.

At a summit in The Hague in June, NATO member states committed to increasing defense spending from the previous threshold of 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035. The European Union, in turn, similarly approved several programs aimed at boosting military spending this year, including the €800 billion ($930 billion) ReArm Europe initiative.

Did Europe Win Over Public Opinion?

So, who won the public opinion against Netanyahu and Trump? And who organized the Sumud Flotilla? And who imposed a total military embargo against Israel? And who is running protests day after day on the streets of Europe? —

Europe! The same Europe that the pro-Russia Orban describes as losing the war in Ukraine? The same Europe that the Russians laugh off as impotent, lacking military strength, disunited, and on the verge of collapse?

In fact it is Europe, more precisely Western Europe, who called the shots in Israel and it is the same Europe that’s now turning its attention to the warmonger Putin. It looks like the same campaign of public opinion is being prepared against Russia. The more Russia bombards the infrastructure in Ukraine, the more public opinion will be mobilized against Russia.

And Russia sees the writing on the wall. It is for this reason that Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s personal valet, called Anna Paulina Luna in a hurry to ask for a meeting on short notice. The reason is that the Russians, seeing the defeat of Trump and Netanyahu, are in a real panic. They are asking for help, for some face-saving exit from Ukraine.

But will Trump oblige? And will he be able to save Putin?

Yedioth Ahronoth: “Israel lost the war”

This is not about peace but about the defeat of Israel and the defeat of Trump. We’ll see what follows next.

Hamas says ceasefire ‘crowns resistance achievements since October 7’

‘What the occupation failed to achieve through genocide & starvation over 2 full years, it could not attain through negotiation’ — Hamas founding member Izzat al-Rishq cited by Quds News Network

From Moldova to Africa, Russia’s Power Is Waning

The defeat of Moscow-friendly parties in the Moldovan election is just the latest of many setbacks.

By Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the founder of Myrmidon Group, and Alexander J. Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/03/russia-putin-moldova-ukraine-europe-africa-geopolitics-power-influence/

On Sept. 28, Moldovan voters overwhelmingly rejected pro-Russian parties and gave President Maia Sandu’s pro-European party a decisive parliamentary majority. The victory, which came despite a massive Russia-financed influence operation to sway the election, was only the latest in a series of geopolitical setbacks for Moscow.

Contrary to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chest-thumping bravado, he has done enormous damage to Russia’s regional and global interests since launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Indeed, Putin’s policies make no sense in terms of realist theory of state behavior. They can only be explained by various assumptions regarding what motivates specific leaders to act the way they do.

The roster of Russian setbacks is long. The most dramatic, of course, has occurred in Ukraine, where Moscow could once count on a large Russia-friendly segment of the population. However, Putin’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014, his instigation of violent separatist movements, and his brutal occupation policies in the Moscow-controlled regions turned public opinion in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east and south against Russia. Today, the shift has become deeply rooted, especially given the war crimes and massive loss of life perpetrated by Russia in three and a half years of war.

When the war ends, Russia will face a heavily armed Ukraine whose population will be welded together for generations by the wounds of Russia’s aggression. A powerful Ukrainian military made up of skilled and seasoned fighters and enhanced by innovative weapons and tactics will work in concert with Europe to deter the Russian threat and limit Russian influence in Europe.

By any standard, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also significantly reduced Russia’s ability to project power in what is sees as its traditional sphere of influence. Not only has the war sapped Russia’s military hardware and created deep-seated problems for its economy, its military occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territory have also eroded most of Moscow’s influence among the states that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet empire.

The Commonwealth of Independent States—once Russia’s main instrument for the peaceful reintegration of the post-Soviet states—is in shambles. The Eurasian Economic Union, which Russia created a little over a decade ago as an alternative to the European Union, has been reduced to a minor trading bloc with a stable membership of only four states: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Though Armenia is still a formal member, the country’s parliament officially endorsed accession to the European Union in February, prompting Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk to warn of serious economic consequences for Yerevan.

Armenia’s bitter break with Russia this year has been driven both by anxiety about Moscow’s disregard for the sovereignty of its neighbors and its withdrawal of protection for Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Given the acrimony, relations are unlikely to be repaired anytime soon—a remarkable development in light of Armenia’s traditional reliance on Russia.

Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan have sharply worsened as well. After a Russian police operation against Azerbaijani migrants led to several deaths, Azerbaijan rooted out Russian influence operations in the country by suspending all Russian cultural activities; raiding the offices of Russia’s propaganda arm, Sputnik News; arresting several Sputnik employees; and sharpening anti-Russian rhetoric.

Emblematic of the overall erosion of Russian influence, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a U.S.-brokered peace declaration at the White House in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump in August.

The war with Ukraine is also reducing Russia’s power projection in Central Asia, where wary former Soviet republics are increasing their engagement with China, benefiting from trade and engagement with the oil-rich Gulf states, deepening cooperation with their ethnic brethren in Turkey, and finding ways to circumvent Russia with their energy and other exports.

If this were not enough to diminish Moscow’s power in the region, the war with Ukraine has eliminated Russia as a naval factor in the Black Sea.

Farther west, Russia’s war has deepened European support for Ukraine and led to a sea change in Europe’s defense posture to meet the Russian threat. Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states have steeply increased military spending already, while most other NATO members have pledged to increase defense expenditures to at least 5 percent of GDP over the next decade. Russia’s war on Ukraine has also led to the expansion of the alliance to Sweden and Finland, the latter extending Russia’s border with the alliance by some 800 miles.

Needless to say, Russia’s war has also weakened its influence in Europe. Deep reductions in energy imports have diminished Russian economic influence, while British and EU sanctions have sapped trade and investment. Restrictions on the ability of Russians to travel and an EU-wide ban of Kremlin propaganda outlets have also limited attempts to manipulate cultural influence and engage in disinformation operations.

Almost everywhere in Europe, anti-Russian sentiments predominate among voters on the left, right, and center. The war in Ukraine, together with continual violations by Russian drones and aircraft of European airspace, has significantly eroded if not eliminated Russian soft power on the continent. Polls show that Putin and Russia are perceived negatively among virtually all European publics—including among parties of the populist right, many of whose leaders once had warm relations with Moscow.

In Italy, widespread public disapproval of Russia and Putin likely contributed to increased support for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her pro-Ukrainian Brothers of Italy party and a sharp decline of support for the far-right party of Matteo Salvini, who has replaced his pro-Putin rhetoric with support for Trump’s peacemaking efforts.

In France, populist icon Marine Le Pen even criticized the U.S. decision in March to pause intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Her successor as leader of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, has gone further, strongly criticizing the Russian invasion and going out of his way to assure NATO allies that he supports military and economic aid to Ukraine. (That said, he has also expressed misgivings about providing Ukraine with French long-range missiles capable of attacking Russia.)

Even Austria, long committed to its postwar neutrality and often suspiciously friendly to the Kremlin, has begun to cooperate closely with NATO and the EU. This has prompted former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to issue warnings of Russian military retaliation if Vienna joins NATO. In Hungary, which remains Putin’s most reliable ally, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party is running nearly 10 points behind the EU- and NATO-aligned opposition in elections slated for April 2026.

In the United States, meanwhile, Trump’s efforts to strike a peacemaking friendship with Putin do not align with his own supporters. Polls consistently show that his core electorate sees Putin as a malign force and supports arming Ukraine—as long as Europe pays for most of it. Trump’s recent reversal—his endorsement of a Ukrainian military victory and statement that Russia is only a “paper tiger”—may signify a deeper shift away from Moscow and toward Kyiv. If it is sustained, such a shift would be a game-changer. And Putin only has himself to blame.

There are exceptions, of course. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has gained support but still faces a long shot to take power, whereas the Merz government’s unequivocal anti-Russian stance has made up for the AfD’s Russophilia. In Georgia, a Russia-aligned party has drifted closer to Moscow’s orbit. But these small beachheads are dwarfed by the wide array of enemies Russia has made.

The rest of the world has also witnessed a diminution of Russian power. The uprising against the Assad regime in Syria created a debacle for Russia. While Moscow has held on to two in-country military bases, it has lost an important ally with the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad. The failure of Russia as a useful ally has also been exposed in Iran, where Russia sat on the sidelines and watched as Israel and the United States bombed and degraded Tehran’s nuclear program.

In Africa, the Wall Street Journal reports that the governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are having buyer’s remorse about their relations with Russia and its mercenaries. As the Journal reports, Russia was “a rising military force in Africa” but is now “struggling to maintain its footprint on the continent” as its military, political, and financial ventures unravel.

North Korea’s support of Russia may be as unshakable as leader Kim Jong Un insists, but Russian-Chinese relations could be more malleable. Although China still resists pushing the Kremlin to settle the war in Ukraine and has emerged as Russia’s main trading partner, the logic of Beijing’s tacit support for Moscow’s war has disappeared. The United States is no longer a major contributor to Ukraine’s war effort, so China’s proxy war in Ukraine is no longer directed against its chief rival.

In short, Putin’s quagmire in Ukraine has dramatically diminished Russia as a Eurasian power. That eroded power is further threatened by the immense cost in lives, the misspent resources, and the mass emigration of programmers, technicians, and other skilled young people. All these factors undermine Russia’s future and stifle the prospect of long-term economic growth. And while Putin may have initially believed in a quick victory that would change the balance of power in Europe, three and a half years later—given Ukrainians’ courage and Western support for Kyiv—this aim is unattainable.

Why, then, does Putin persist in the folly of pursuing a deadly, deadlocked war?

Realist international relations scholars generally assume that states act rationally to advance their national interest. This perspective often works, if only as a convenient starting point for analyzing or predicting states’ behavior. Just as often, however, it doesn’t work, especially in explaining why some states act against their own geopolitical interests not just once, but consistently over time. If Putin’s actions keep contradicting the realist conception of a Russian national interest, then clearly he is not a realist. Something else must be at work in Putin’s mind.

First, there is Putin’s twisted view of history, his belief in Russia’s eternal mission to eradicate Ukraine and force its people to become Russians. As with the folly of tsarist Russia’s aim to make Russians out of Poles in the 19th century, this aim is doomed to failure amid Ukraine’s remarkable national awakening and consolidation since Putin’s first attack in 2014.

The second motive for Putin is the war’s role in consolidating Russian society around the myth of national greatness. The war also gives Putin the pretext to institute the most repressive regime since the Stalin-era Soviet Union.

Finally, Putin’s project is not about Russia’s future, nor is it about transforming Russia into a world-class economic, military, and geopolitical force. At bottom, it is about an aging despot’s desire for absolute power and a place in Russian history books as another conqueror in a long line of bloody conquerors—the long-term consequences for Russia, its people, and its future global role be damned.

Putin’s motivations for the war in Ukraine are tied to ideology, politics, and his own personality. The West should realize that Putin has no interest in—or comprehension of—peace. The only way to overcome ideology, politics, and personality is by force and deterrence. In other words, by supporting a Ukrainian victory, building European military capacity, and demonstrating to ordinary Russians and the ruling elite that Putin’s war has taken their country into a dead end.