WP: Wagner vs. MOD

The Washington Post releases new documents from US intelligence leaks. They concern the conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense, which escalated again.

The leaks date back to February when Wagner’s handler had already started blaming the military for a shortage of ammunition for his PMC. Data was obtained through wiretapping and message interception.

The documents show that “the Russian military leadership was frustrated by Prigozhin’s harsh public attacks and discussed how to suppress his criticism.”

Also, officials of the Russian Defense Ministry “were not sure that it was possible to successfully wage an information war against Prigozhin if the government did not prohibit him from making public statements.”

CIA military sources in Russia “couldn’t say unequivocally” whether Wagner received ammunition because it was not distributed directly from the ministry but through a task force in Bakhmut. At the same time, the sources admitted that “Prigozhin’s statements may be true.”

One of the documents for February 12 stated that the head of the General Staff Gerasimov “ordered to stop the supply of ammunition, as well as military transport flights intended for the transport of ammunition” to the Rostov headquarters of the PMC (we note that on February 23, Prigozhin announced that the problem had been resolved and the shipment of shells for Wagner resumed).

After Prigozhin’s public claims, he was summoned to a meeting with Putin and Shoigu on February 22. The day before, the curator of the PMC asked the President of Russia to allow him to continue recruiting from prisons, to train the mobilized and recruit foreigners, in particular, Afghans, into Wagner.

But Putin essentially refused. “The document, citing FSB interceptions, says that Putin ordered Prigozhin to resolve these issues with the Ministry of Defense taking the side of his generals and not Chief Wagner,” the publication reports.

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Meanwhile, after Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw Wagner units from Bakhmut, additional Wagner units were transferred to Bakhmut and even more fierce fighting began.
The UAF, in desperation, trying to stop Wagner, transfers reinforcements to Bakhmut, but most of them are destroyed by artillery on the way, because the ways of the APU approach to Bakhmut are under fire.
Bakhmut is now turning into the grave of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fights are non-stop. The telegram audience is fascinated by the fire-bombed quarters of the tiny patch of Bakhmut, where the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still hiding, who are dying en masse at the whim of the war criminal Zelensky, who does not allow them to leave Bakhmut and throws thousands more lives of unfortunate Ukrainians into the furnace of Bakhmut.

SCO Countries vs. Collective West

#SputnikInfographic

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Eurasian political, economic, and security bloc founded in 2001, has great potential to become a United Nations for the non-Western world, according to Robinder Sachdev, geopolitical and economic diplomacy analyst and founder president of the Imagindia Institute.

The two-day summit of the SCO foreign ministers kicked off on May 4 in the Indian state of Goa. The SCO foreign ministers are due to focus on the expansion of the organization.

Currently, the organization consists of eight permanent members, namely, China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; and nine dialogue partners – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Turkiye, Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Our infographic shows the comparison of the total population of the SCO and the collective West.

Russian Army: Are Shoigu and Gherasimov Being Discharged?

There are some very significant developments within the Russian Army taking place these days. And that is: a mutiny within the volunteer army, which is Wagner, against the incompetent, corrupt 5th column represented by the big wigs Defense Minister Shoigu and Army Chief of Staff Gherasimov.

On the public channels, the complaint is about ammunition or, rather the lack of it, that was/is allocated to the Wagner group. But it might be rather about the direction of the overall strategy of Russia and a possible change of guard at the top.

Here is Prigozhin giving the ultimatum, not to  the Ukrainian army but to the Russian army. “We will leave the theater of operation in Bakhmut on May 10.” : https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/60473.

And here is the same Prigozhin explaining why: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/60594 

To speak out against Wagner today is political suicide. Because of the popularity of Wagner and because of the irritation of society against the military and political bureaucracy, because of the mistakes and inactivity of the NWO. Because, as it seems to society, the bureaucracy is afraid to defeat the West in Ukraine, afraid to fight for real.
For example, the very popular TG channel “Ridovka explains” today called Prigozhin’s actions blackmail, so after that he was told such a thing that after half an hour “Ridovka explains” apologized.
Many are afraid to criticize the Ministry of Defense. But no one has yet dared to seriously criticize Wagner. The Ministry of Defense is also silent.It thinks. (Markov)

Is Russia Still Occupied Land?

Posted by: shadowbanned

[ . . . ]

I know I am getting irritating with constantly pointing it out, but that makes it no less true — if you get your info from The Duran, Ritter, McGregor, Lira, Martyanov, etc., you are completely misinformed about the actual situation in Russia, where the patriotic portions of the population are in complete despair for more than a year now watching how the Kremlin is conducting this strange “not war”. Because they remember the late 1980s, when the biggest act of treason in human history was committed, they remember the three decades that followed, during which it was never reversed, and they can clearly see that the same kind of shady dealings are going on behind the scenes now too. Meanwhile, not only is the war not fought seriously, but now Russia is humiliated daily, and there is no reaction. So there is deep, existential fear that the country will be sold out by its elites once again, and there will be no recovery.

If you take out Zelensky and co., that will send a very strong message that see, we are going to be fighting the war seriously from now on, nobody will take a dump on the honor of the country again, let’s all mobilize and finish this thing off. Right now you have soldiers out there who have no idea what it is they are fighting for, and a substantial reason for why all these sabotage acts are so successful is that locally people are resigned to their fate and not on their guard.

Fourth, that will burn the bridges with the West for good too, because from here on the Russian elite will be a target too. That is precisely why they are afraid of taking out Zelensky, but if they finally do it, then it is an existential fight for them too, one they will have to win.

For all these reasons, it should have been done a long time ago, and the second best time to do it is now.

There should also have been a denunciation of the Belovezh accords and a derecognition of Ukraine. To hell with whether it makes e.g. Kazakhstan angry, Kazakhstan will have to be dealt with separately anyway sooner or later.

As long as these things are not done, the leading hypothesis for what is happening remains that Russia is still governed by traitors and nothing has really changed since the late 1980s.

P.S. This illustrates the situation perfectly:

May 3. There can be no negotiations with the Zelenskyy regime – Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian Parliament.
May 4. Delegations of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are scheduled to meet on Friday in Istanbul to discuss the issue of transporting Russian ammonia through Ukrainian ports.

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It needs to be always remembered that ultimately it was Hollywood that won the cold war.

Soviet citizens didn’t have it substantially worse than the typical working class grunt in the US when you account for all the things they took for granted (guaranteed housing, guaranteed employment, early retirement and generous pensions relative to salaries, free healthcare, free education, etc.) that poor and working class people in the US didn’t have. What difference there remained even after that was due to the fact that the US was sucking in resources from much of the globe, while the USSR was not, and due to the very low starting point of the USSR in the 1920s and the destruction of WWII.

But nobody actually explained that to the Soviet people, and there was always a trickle of Western movies that painted an extremely unrealistic picture of life in the West, as most such movies have always primarily portrayed the lives of the rich and privileged (in no small part because very few of the people making them came from the working class). So the average Soviet citizen got it in their head that the West was some kind of paradise of unlimited consumption and everyone was a millionaire, which of course had nothing to do with reality.

Worse, the elite became compromised too, and even earlier than the general population. Khrushchev’s trip the US in the 1950s is the starting point.

In retrospect, if the USSR really wanted to survive, it should have walled itself off the West the way North Korea has. Which is why North Korea is still around and the USSR is not…

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It’s not out of date, that mentality still persists regardless of actual reality (how many people in Russia do you think are aware of what San Francisco of Philadelphia actually look like?), and it is only the top 10% in Russia that are really prosperous. Inequality is extreme, and all those things that I listed as guaranteed/free in the USSR are no longer either guaranteed, free or affordable. Western cultural influence is still pervasive and deeply corrosive, especially on the young.

P.S. The main reason there are tent cities in the US now is that the USSR is no longer there to indirectly prevent it.

Let’s remember how the US entered WWII — with tent cities and abject poverty for much of the population. Same in the UK. Then the main enemy became the USSR while internally there were millions of men well trained to fight. Dangerous combination (the much less numerous and less well trained WWI veterans had marched on DC only a decade earlier), so concessions had to be made, and the tent cities disappeared. Plus that coincided with the period before the US ran out of oil, so the redistribution problem was solved through uncontrolled expansion. In the 1970s US oil production peaked, outsourcing began, neoliberalism entered the scene, and around that time Soviet elites agreed to commit treason. The result was devastation for the East, massive transfer of real wealth from East to West, which created another redistribution cushion, but eventually western elites got what they were dreaming of for so many decades – a return to the conditions of the 19th century in terms of social inequality and oppression of the masses.

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Have you ever even seen what’s available in Russia, even without VPN’s ? Do you know what the youth there listen to and emulate ? Have you seen the talk and game shows ? Its all modeled after Western filth. Additionally, the main target of this mind control slop is the youth and future generations, just like in most other nations.

If you think this doesn’t affect anything you’re extremely naive.

Selling Off the West’s Patrimony for One Ruble – But Why?

Ed. Note: Besides the whiff of surreality that envelops the war in Ukraine itself, this is another example of something that looks like something else. For the last 30 years Europe was investing in Russia, transferring their technology, training the Russian workforce in Western methods of management, production and marketing, etc., and then? They are told to sell it all to the Russians for one ruble, thus legitimizing a massive transfer of know-how and modernizing the Russian economy overnight as a competitive alternative to the West.

This is not unlike the transfer of technology and know-how to China that occurred in the last 40 years. Isn’t it the most glaring conspiracy under the full view of the confused populations? – But Why?

The Russian government allows Western companies to withdraw money from Russia when they sell their Russian subsidiaries. This causes indignation on the part of the Russian public. But, how is it actually done?
1. Westerners are forced to sell their Russian resources at depressed prices.
2. And pay regular taxes.
3. After that, the Westerners still have to pay a voluntary mandatory contribution to the Russian budget of about 10% of the transaction.
4. And after that, the Westerners still have to pay a tax on excess profits.
In general, not very much can be withdrawn from Russia as a result.
The reason Western companies get into this situation is the threat of political repression in the West. Europe is no longer making decisions for itself.

 

Is it because the alternative is this? Scenes from the Southern border of the US:

Tucker Carlson – A Man Standing Up

Both Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shortly before firing Fox News‘ anti-war host Tucker Carlson, who has repeatedly asked why the United States is sending vast resources to one of the most historically corrupt nations on the planet while neglecting its own citizens.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS

“Fox News Executive Chairman Rupert Murdoch held a previously unreported call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this spring in which the two discussed the war and the anniversary of the deaths of Fox News journalists last March,” according to Semafor, adding “The Ukrainian president had a similar conversation with Lachlan Murdoch on March 15, which Zelenskyy noted in a little-noticed aside during a national broadcast last month.”

As Semafor further notes; “The conversations came weeks before the Murdochs fired their biggest star and most outspoken critic of American support for Ukraine, Tucker Carlson. Senior Ukrainian officials had made their objections to Carlson’s coverage known to Fox executives, but Zelenskyy did not raise it on the calls with the Murdochs, according to one person familiar with the details of the calls.”
Weeks later, Lachlan Murdoch was credited with the decision to let Carlson go, according to the NY Times.

The decision to let Mr. Carlson go was made on Friday night by Lachlan Murdoch, the chief executive of Fox Corporation, and Suzanne Scott, chief executive of Fox News Media, according to a person briefed on the move. Mr. Carlson was informed on Monday morning by Ms. Scott, another person briefed on the move said.

Carlson, according to the report, has previously described Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”
Interestingly, on March 11 – right around the time of the Lachlan Murdoch call, Carlson suggested to Redactedhost Clayton Morris that he could be fired over his anti-war stance.
“I’m saying what I really think and I think it really really matters and if I get fired for it, I don’t know what to say, I’m not going to change,” he said, adding that one of the top people he worked for at the network texted him to say “For the record, I really disagree with you on Ukraine!”
To which Carlson said: “And I wrote back and said, ‘I know you do and I’m so grateful that you let me disagree with you in public,” adding “This is someone I work for — a well known person.”
“Whatever you think of Fox … they are allowing me to say things that they disagree with and I think that’s wonderful.”
Watch (via Information Liberation):

via ZeroHedge

Unraveling the Balkanization of South-Eastern Europe

Ed. Note:

Ukraine decides who belongs to the civilized world and who does not, – Foreign Minister Kuleba told about a telephone conversation with a colleague:

“The Foreign Minister of one country called me and said: ‘Dmitry, I spoke with one problematic country and told them that today Ukraine decides who belongs to the civilized countries and who does not. If Ukraine does not give a signal that you are a normal country and with whom they can have business, then you will have problems’.”

From a recent comment:

All of Ulraine east of the Zhytomyr-Vinnytsia line is core historic Russian territory.
It ended up separated through a very unfortunate series of historic accidents.
But worse, it was being turned into a militantly anti-Russian platform for attacks against Russia.
Forget about Russian national interests, it is in your best interest as a US (or whatever other Western country you reside in) citizen for Ukraine to disappear from the map.
Because what is the alternative? The alternative is nuclear missiles situated there and Russian doomsday dead hand systems going on hair-trigger alert permanently, because now there are low single-digit minutes separating the launch from Moscow being vaporized.
With “long-term guarantees” we are all dead — we have miraculously survived so far through a disturbingly large list of situation in which the ICBMs were not launched only through sheer blind luck and because there was time to stop, think and assess the situation. That time will no longer be available with nukes in Ukraine.
On top of it all, there can be no such thing as a non-Nazi Ukrainian nationalism. That ship has long sailed. Just accept it as the fact of life that it is.
In the last 14 months the US has basically made official the alliance it entered into with the Nazis in March 1945, and from here on you can expect Ukrainization of the West, and by extension, open (re-)Nazification. Including of the US. The process is already very advanced in the Baltics, but it will spread further.
So on moral grounds alone you should be rooting for the complete erasure of Ukraine from the map and from future human history.

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All the Banderites had to do was to keep things quiet for another 30 years so that nobody pro-Soviet and pro-Russian is left and three generations are raised in an environment completely saturated with Ukrainian nationalist brainwashing.That would have closed the case and Russia would never get those lands back again.
There are two other examples of how that works (or fails to work) further to the southeast. We have three such pairs of countries:
1. Ukraine and Russia
2. Macedonia and Bulgaria
3. Moldova and Romania.
In which a smaller part of the whole is torn off the rest due to various historical circumstances, then it launches on a path towards becoming a real separate nation, often through the application of brutal brainwashing.
With Macedonia that process is finished — it started a century ago, and the brainwashing is so complete that they really hate Bulgarians quite thoroughly there, and Bulgaria is never getting it back.
With Moldova there was never that much effort put into it by the Soviets, plus they only got it under their control in 1944, so it looks like it will eventually reunite with Romania.
Ukraine was somewhere in the middle.
But there is a substantial difference here — Bulgaria and Romania were always too weak to get their lands back militarily. Russia, on the other hand, is a nuclear superpower. So it always had the capability to use force and resolve the issue that way.
Fortunately for the Ukrainians, Russia has for three decades (and really, more like six) been ruled by traitors who had absolutely no interest in such silly ideals such as defending the long-term security of the country, reuniting the Russian world, etc. They were perfectly content to let the Banderites run wild in Ukraine as long as there was no direct threat to them.
So all the Banderites had to do was to not cause too much trouble for another 20-30 years, and Ukraine would have been irreversibly lost to Russia.
And if handing Crimea over would have bought them that time, that would have been a win.
But they just can’t help themselves. And now they might lose it all.
Provided that Russia is no longer run by traitors, of course…

Also, you will do well to find a Ukrainian textbook and learn what they teach children there. A lot of it concerns not just Russia, and when you see it, maybe there is a chance that it will be so ridiculous even to you, that you may ask yourself the question “Wait, if they are lying in such absurd way about all these other things, how are we supposed to believe them about Russo-Ukrainian relationships?”…

Posted by: shadowbanned

Demographics – The Key to Future Balance of Power

The UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects (WPP) Report – a biennial – was released in mid-2022.

Current projections (taking into account the war, to an extent) indicate Ukraine’s total population declining to ~20 million by 2100. Now, this includes Crimea and the four oblasts annexed by Russia. Today, those 5 regions collectively house anywhere between ~5-8 million (pre-war, 10 million). They are not going to be returned to Ukraine. This means that by 2100 Ukraine (the nation-state) will have a population of about 15 million.

In 2021, a year before the war started, Ukraine’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 1.16, well below replacement (2.1), and also well below that of the EU, US, and Russia. Much of the developing world is facing the problem of below-replacement rate TFRs, this is true – Europe and Canada are dealing with it by immigration. Japan and South Korea have yet to figure out what works for them, but they are highly advanced (technologically), wealthy countries.

China will experience a breath-taking, never before seen in history halving of its population from 1.4 billion to ~700 million by 2100, but 700 million is still a lot of people, and China has shifted up the technology and economic development curve. To be sure, this massive and rapid of a decline will cause all sorts of issues/problems/pain, but China will have the resources to deal with it.

Russia’s population (excluding Crimea and the four annexed oblasts) is expected to decline from about 145 million today to ~115 million by 2100. Russia’s TFR of ~1.5 is also below replacement, and about the same as the EU, but significantly higher than Ukraine, Japan, and South Korea. One factor in Russia’s favour is that it has a lot of experience with management of a massive geographical footprint with a relatively small population (thinly dispersed outside a few key cities) – somewhat similar to Canada or Australia in this sense, but with the crucial difference that Russia shares land borders with 14 countries, including the sensitive NATO and Central Asian countries (where the US and China compete for influence, and the US has biolabs). As well, it has close maritime boundaries with the US and Japan, making its task significantly more complex than that of Canada or Australia.

Ukraine’s land mass is about 93% of Afghanistan, so roughly the same size. Pre-war, both countries also had roughly equivalent total population (~41-44 million). But TFR is the key – Afghanistan’s population is expected to increase to ~110 million by 2100 (80 million by 2050).

Both Afghanistan and Ukraine are endowed with significant, valuable natural resources. The great powers and resource-hungry powers are going to continue to fight over these. Despite being much poorer, Afghanistan actually has greater agency – each generation of Taliban (or other political elites) gets more sophisticated (and better educated too, not just madrassas) re: playing all the powers involved in their country off of each other (US, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, UAE, Saudi, Iran). They have 100s of years experience figuring out how to optimize the management of transactional relationships with a host of folks “in it for themselves”. Elite capture by one country is just not possible in Afghanistan. A population of 100 million will give them heft, despite poor GDP/capita and HDI indicators.

Ukraine, IMO, has almost no agency at this point – “elite capture” is complete.

So, whilst most folks are focused on the war, and the minutiae of daily missile counts, demographics (and the formal annexation of the four oblasts and Crimea) basically tell you that the game is already over. Large scale kinetic conflict for at most 1-2 more years (if that), followed possibly by LIC (think the Kashmir region) for decades, until a contact line/Line of Control becomes a de facto border.

by Yashuo

Several of the OPEC+ Countries Began a Voluntary Reduction in Oil Production

This measure will last until the end of the year

Several countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement have started voluntary reduction of oil production since May, which will last until the end of 2023. The total volume of production reduction will be 1.66 million barrels per day (b/d).

Some OPEC+ countries, including the largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, unexpectedly announced a voluntary reduction in oil production from May to the end of 2023 a day before the meeting of the alliance’s ministerial monitoring, held on April 3. In a statement published on the OPEC website after the monitoring meeting, it was said that preventive measures to reduce production are aimed at maintaining the stability of the oil market.

In total, nine OPEC+ countries announced additional restrictive measures on production. Saudi Arabia will voluntarily reduce production by 500 000 b/d, Iraq – by 211 000 b/ d, the UAE – by 144 000 b/d, Kuwait – by 128 000 b/d, Kazakhstan – by 78 000 b/d, Algeria – by 48 000 b/d, Oman – by 40 000 b/d, Gabon – by 8 000 b/d. Russia has extended until the end of the year the decision that was in effect until the end of June to reduce production by 500 000 b/d from the average February values.

The voluntary volume of production reduction will be an addition to the OPEC+ plan for a reduction of 2 million b/d effective from November 2022.

“Project” Covid-19 was Funded Years Before the Scamdemic

Documents from US National Institute of Health requested by and published to Judicial Watch conservative watchdog group show US NGO EcoHealth Alliance started doing taxpayer-funded research on MUTANT VIRUS from bats back in 2013 at Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Showing project in the making YEARS before COVID-19 outbreak is another stake in claim by EcoHealth Alliance that COVID-19 totally didn’t come from a lab.