The End is Here

The Existential Trap – The Pentagon Has Just Fallen Into It

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by John Helmer, Moscow

@bears_with

The sudden change of US warfighting plans in defence of Israel, disclosed on Saturday by General Lloyd Austin, the US Defense Secretary, reveals the trap which Russia, China, and Iran have opened, and the desperate measures the US has taken as it falls in.

Austin announced that he has “redirected the movement of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the Central Command area of responsibility. This carrier strike group is in addition to the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, which is currently operating in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. It will further increase our force posture and strengthen our capabilities and ability to respond to a range of contingencies.”

“I have also activated the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery as well as additional Patriot battalions to locations throughout the region to increase force protection for U.S. forces.”

The Eisenhower’s new destination has not been announced. US military media are claiming it will be the Persian Gulf or the Red Sea, or both.

The Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) is officially the Arab and Iranian territories east of the Mediterranean shoreline, focusing on the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, and targeting Iran, Russia, and China.

“In a small change that could have major meaning,” Pentagon officials are tellingtheir press, “the U.S. is changing its plans for the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group. The change could place the strike group in waters where Chinese warships have been active in recent months. Last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that the Eisenhower strike group would head to the eastern Mediterranean instead of Europe as had been planned. Sailing in the eastern Mediterranean would have put the strike group to the west of Israel. But that plan changed after a week in which U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq came under fire from Iran-backed militias, and a U.S. Navy ship in the Red Sea downed missiles launched from Yemen…On Saturday, Austin said in a statement the strike group will now go to the ‘Central Command area of responsibility.’ Central Command covers a vast amount of Middle East territory, including the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.”

The purpose of “these steps,” Austin said, is to “bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for U.S. forces in the region, and assist in the defense of Israel.” The priority order is a switch. Israel comes last – Iran, Russia and China come first.

For the first time too, the US command has acknowledged what President Vladimir Putin meant when he said in Beijing last Wednesday, October 18, that he has deployed MiG-31s armed with Kinzhal missiles within range of the Eisenhower.

Austin added for Sunday television viewers in the US: “If any group or any country is looking to widen this conflict and take advantage of this very unfortunate situation that we see, our advice is: don’t. We maintain the right to defend ourselves, and we won’t hesitate to take the appropriate action.”

The US doctrine of self-defence while attacking states like Lebanon, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Somalia isn’t new. In September 1969, when Libyan Army Captain Muammar Qaddafi took control of his country, he carefully skirted the US Air Force (USAF) base at Wheelus (Mellaha), which was stocking nuclear weapons at the time; Qaddafi then squeezed the US forces out of Wheelus over twelve months, but the USAF evacuated its nuclear weapons swiftly.

Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon don’t have time; the Israelis even less.

But Austin’s rush to change the sailing orders for the Eisenhower and fly THAADs and Patriots to US bases in the Arab territories reveals he’s short of time too. This is because the entire portfolio of US air defence systems is being defeated. The Russian Kinzhal has defeated the US Patriot batteries around Kiev; the Hamas swarms of drones and rockets defeated Israel’s Iron Dome on October 7. THAAD has been tested in combat once, against a Houthi missile, rocket and drone attack against Abu Dhabi targets in January 2022. “Several were intercepted, a few of them [weren’t].”

The USS Carney’s firing against Houthi missiles and drones in the Red Sea has exposed how vulnerable that southern line of attack against Israel would be if the Houthis try swarming instead of testing their ordnance, as they did against the Carney. Originally, in the Pentagon version of Friday, October 19, three Houthi missiles and several drones were intercepted on their way to Israel. A day later, CNN revised the story by reporting “a US official familiar with the situation” to say there had been a “nine-hour duel” and four cruise missiles and fifteen drones came down.

Tongue-biting and stammering are clinical symptoms of the mind which knows what to say but has difficulty getting it out; this usually causes loss of self-esteem. When General Austin is speaking like this, it signals the mind doesn’t know what to say, and is desperate for self-esteem.

Austin also signalled that the Pentagon is preparing rapid deployment forces for evacuation of air and ground base soldiers and airmen in Jordan, Syria and Iraq if they are swarmed by protesters. “I have placed,” Austin said, “an additional number of forces on prepare-to-deploy orders as part of prudent contingency planning, to increase their readiness and ability to quickly respond as required.” The likelihood that the Pentagon is laying plans for US ground troops to fight to keep the bases is low; secret Congressional briefings are bound to leak if that possibility is entering the US presidential race at this stage.*

Instead, these are Kabul Airport type evacuation missions. The fear in the Biden White House, and the Democratic National Committee, is that US military personnel or other officials may be taken hostage following swarm attacks by the Arabs across the region.

According to a military source near Washington, “Biden got them out of Kabul. [President Jimmy] Carter didn’t get them out of Teheran. If CENTCOM has anything in mind it’s missile defence capability, readiness and base security – and figuring what the hell the Chinese are up to.”

Left: US aircraft wreckage in Iran following the failure of the hostage-rescue mission known as OPERATION EAGLE CLAW in April 1980. Right: read the new history of US operations against the Arab world.

Russia and China are saying little, doing more.

By redeploying the Eisenhower from the eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, the US has moved the aircraft carrier out of range of Russian Kinzhals in the Black Sea. However, in the Persian Gulf, the Eisenhower will be within shooting distance of MiG-31s and the Kinzhal in the Caspian Sea, as well as other long-range Russian missiles.

Left: According to a US state propaganda agency, Russia has fired long-range ballistic missiles from the Caspian to targets in the Ukraine, including Kiev, between May and October of 2022; flight distance was about 1,800 kilometres. Right: The red line from international waters and airspace of the Caspian to the mid-Persian Gulf is about 1,700 kms. 

In the Red Sea, the US fleet will be within range of several types of Iranian ballistic missiles against which there have been no US combat tests to date. Click here to review the Iranian missile armoury, including estimated range, payload and accuracy. There is ample evidence that the general staffs of Russia, China, and Iran are currently coordinating in the Persian Gulf, where there was a visible surface navy exercise in March, and since then much that is invisible in intelligence-gathering and sharing, targeting, early-warning systems, and the like.

According to this source, the anti-air and land target capabilities of the DC-10 missile arming the Chinese Navy’s Type-052D destroyer now in the Persian Gulf “poses a number of security challenges for the United States. The DH-10 has a low flight altitude that increases its stealth capabilities against the air defense radars. The DH-10 can also be updated during its flight with new targeting data, allowing it to change targets. The stealth capabilities employed by the DH-10 allow it to confuse or outmaneuver the radars and defenses around ships in the region.”

In March 2023, Reuters reported from Beijing on the naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman with vessels from Russia, China and Iran: “The 2023 edition of the ‘Marine Security Belt’ exercises will help ‘deepen practical cooperation among the navies of participating countries’, China’s Defense Ministry said.” Source: https://www.reuters.com/

A Moscow military reporter comments: “in my view, Russians and Chinese should cut to the chase and say, you can try sorting it out with Israel, but here is the red line. Obviously, that red line has no meaning if it is not with the capability to deliver on the threat.”

“Hanging out with or near Israel just became very dangerous,” according to a US military source familiar with the situation. “I think the Houthi firing, trap or not, scared the shit out of them [Pentagon]. The number of drones and missiles the Carney ‘shot down’ keeps going up. It’s not just the missiles they are worried about. Iranian drone technology, and their capacity to get them into the hands of their allies, must be causing alarm. What scares them about the Chinese task force is the range of its cruise missiles as well as its capacity to link up with Iranian and (I assume) Russian air defence radar and targeting networks. They’ve all been practicing together.”

“Every American and allied base in the region is now under a joint, mutually supportive, Russian, Iranian and Chinese umbrella. In short, a trap.”

[*] American voter disapproval of President Biden’s foreign policy performance is growing; the current negative spread of 19 points is approaching the worst it has been in Biden’s term. His trip to Israel and unqualified support for the Israeli war against the Palestinians have gained nothing for him from American voters.

Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

NOTE: on Israel’s southwestern front, Egypt is bringing up armoured forces to the El Arish-Rafah area. Media reports from Qatar suggesting the reason is to combat Palestinians moving into the Sinai from Gaza are false.

“Urgent Local sources and eyewitnesses reported to the Sinai Foundation the arrival of large military reinforcements to the Rafah border area on Thursday afternoon [October 19]. The sources said that the reinforcements included officers, soldiers, military vehicles, jeeps, and tanks.” — source: https://twitter.com/

The End is Here

Biden: Yes, to a Replay of WWII – Russia: Not so Fast

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Biden just announced the results of the upcoming war, World War Three, for which the US just gave the go-ahead:

“We spent 50 years in the post-war period where it worked pretty damn well, but now the steam has kind of run out. Looks like the steam has come out. We need a new, new world order,”

To which Russia responds NYET: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov states:

“Whatever new world order the US envisions, it means an American-centric world order. A world revolving around the US. This will not be anymore.”

Uncategorized

BLM and Freedom of Speech in the USA on the Palestinian Question

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by Gilbert Doctorow

To those who believe that I spend all my time watching news broadcasts and talk shows on Russian state television, let me open this essay by correcting that misperception. I also do keep an eye on major national broadcasters in Western Europe, including Euronews and the BBC. And, in spare moments, when I am not doing something more intellectual like reading and writing, I flip on CNN.

All of which leads me to a conclusion that is likely to shock readers of these notes in Europe and America: just as on the subject of the Ukraine war, so on the subject of the Hamas-Israel war, there is far more diversity of opinion aired on the American broadcaster than on its Continental counterparts. And that is exactly as it should be, because there is much more freedom of expression in the United States today than anywhere in Europe and Britain. [category cultural/ideological divide

I have several answers to the “why” that this assertion certainly will raise. The biggest reason is the one most readers will least suspect: Donald Trump. During the presidential race of 2016, candidate Trump said things in his public appearances which normal folks like you or me would never have said for fear of inviting a knock on the door from the FBI under charges of subversion. He got away with it as a candidate, he thereby liberated all of us, and then he continued speaking the unspeakable as President, with the net result that society was split down the middle and there was room for every political view to be published. In my own field of Russian affairs, the daily digest of our leading disseminator of writings by analysts and pundits, Johnson’s Russia List, went from being deadly boring for having content only supplied by Russia haters to being a garden of a thousand blooms.

Europe had no Trump. Europe was in 2016 and remains today a cemetery of the intellect. I have in mind not just peer group pressures for creative spirits to just shut up and not rock the boat. No, there are laws in Germany, France and elsewhere that push a fist down your throat if you go public with opinions on Putin, on sanctions and now on Palestine that are not in conformity with the local government line.

For the above reasons, European broadcasters today crop the news on Gaza to say only that Israel has a right to self-defense. Meanwhile, CNN is devoting a lot of air time to the suffering of the Gaza Palestinians under the ongoing hourly bombardments by Israeli ground and air forces that are grinding all residential areas of Gaza City into dust and that have uprooted at least 700,000 Palestinians in a forced move to nowhere in the southern half of the enclave.

Let me add another factor to explain the more serious journalism that subscribers to CNN are receiving compared to your average European television viewer: Black Lives Matter.

It is not in the least surprising that BLM have come out in support of the Gaza Palestinians, for reasons that go back to the Black Panthers. What they are calling for is an immediate cease-fire, urgent delivery of medical supplies, water, fuel, food into Gaza ramped up to at least the pre-October 7th rate of 200 trucks per day. American authorities are forced to accept the demonstrations of BLM in favor of the Palestinians lest all hell break loose in cities across the country.

I think of yesterday’s comments to the The Financial Times by the leading candidate to replace Mark Rutte as prime minister of The Netherlands, the current justice minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, on the dangers that the Hamas-Israel war poses for Europe, namely that cleavages in our society will open up. Regrettably, that is the mindset of an authoritarian if not purely fascist politician. When everyone is perfectly aligned and there are no nay-sayers tolerated, then freedom is dead.

The problem of conformism in Europe is not something new. In the past, democracy busting conformism was most common, perhaps, in Scandinavia, as I saw as a frequent business visitor to Sweden in the 1980s. My job required that I meet periodically with the factory management of our subsidiary there to coordinate marketing efforts. We talked about the target markets I was serving, Yugoslavia in particular, where my interlocutors went to promote product sales and also to pick up cheap eyeglasses and other personal and household necessities at a fraction of their cost in Sweden. We never talked politics, only about the pleasures of good raki. But then prime minister Olaf Palme was assassinated and over a lunch in the company cafeteria, my main contact told me “Thank goodness they’ve killed the s.o.b.” I was shocked, since I had never heard a word of criticism in Sweden directed at their politically correct, almost angelic leader. However, my talking partner, like most other managers at the plant was an engineer and he hated Palme for having destroyed the engineering and other departments of Swedish universities.

It is this destructive silence that I see around me in Europe. And so I say, three cheers for healthy cleavages in society that give life to representative democracy, and, at the present moment, three cheers for Black Lives Matter.

Military Affairs

Must See: Scott Ritter on Israel’s Hit on October 7

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Watch on YouTube here.

This is a 2 hour long interview of Scott Ritter.  Scott answers questions from the audience with host Jeff Norman most Friday nights at 5 PM. 

Scott provided an explanation that makes sense, there’s a scenario that he details. “Scott Ritter Extra Ep. 108: Ask the Inspector – hospital strike”:

https://youtube.com/live/5wKAJDNaAXw?si=dlyNdLfE8-CBP5O
This was a hit on a car at the hospital because someone important enough was using his phone incorrectly. The damage matches the missile type and the image of the flipped car.
It was a targeted hit.
Overall brilliant analysis, bringing transparency and clarity to key world events during these dangerous days of mass media propaganda and establishment’s corruption. Two very brave individuals, telling the truth which can be a dangerous business.
Military Affairs

Is the CIA Sending a Signal to Moscow Through the Media?

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by Sergei Markov

The Washington Post published an article about the terrorist attack against Daria Dugina. Our media write that the Washington Post admits, with reference to the CIA, that this was a terrorist attack by the SBU against Alexander Dugin. This is true.

According to WaPo’s Ukrainian sources the bomb was planted in a hidden compartement of a per carrier that was smuggled trough the border by a woman with a 12 year old daughter.

The target was Alexander Dugin.

From the article:

“The operation was orchestrated by Ukraine’s domestic security service, the SBU, according to officials who provided details, including the use of the pet crate, that have not been previously disclosed. The August 2022 attack is part of a raging shadow war in which Ukraine’s spy services have also twice bombed the bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea, piloted drones into the roof of the Kremlin and blown holes in the hulls of Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.”

But the main thing in the article is different – the Washington Post admits that terrorist attacks like the one against Daria Dugina were carried out by the SBU, which was created by the US CIA for 10 years who invested hundreds of millions of dollars and its own intelligence into this organization.

But, supposedly, these are terrorist attacks purely by the SBU, and the US CIA is not responsible for these terrorist attacks and that the CIA is even in conflict with the SBU over this, due to their excessive bloodiness.

I think the Washington Post is lying at the request of the CIA. Apparently, Russia is so incensed by the CIA-led SBU terrorist attacks that it has hinted that it will respond not to the unfortunate Ukrainians, but to the Americans.

And now the CIA, through the Washington Post, sends a signal to the Kremlin – don’t touch the Americans, we are not to blame, it’s all the SBU.

But in Russia they believe that the US CIA not only created the current SBU, but also completely controls the SBU and is therefore responsible for the terrorist attacks of the SBU.

Nevertheless, Russia does not respond because it simply does not want a world nuclear war.

Anglozionism

A Resident of the Gaza Strip on the Situation in the Besieged Enclave.

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via https://t.me/colonel_cassad/117106

A resident of the Gaza Strip on the situation in the besieged enclave.

Nur Alsalibi, a resident of Gaza, on the situation in the city and the Israeli Air Force strikes—especially for the @voenkorKotenok TG channel:

“The situation in the city is very difficult. The intensity of the strikes is growing every day. Rockets can fly anywhere at any time. Even if they don’t hit your house, but the neighbouring one, blast fragments will fly into your house. Basically, they bomb the north and the “centre” (“Al Rimal”) [the Al Rimal neighbourhood is 3km from Gaza’s city centre –ed.]. Al Karama residential area [in Gaza’s north –ed.] has been completely destroyed. In Al Zahraa [in the central Gaza Strip –ed.], 24 residential buildings were destroyed.

Israel says Hamas was there, but that’s a lie—they weren’t there. Hamas fighters have gone into the tunnels under the city; Israeli missiles cannot even reach them. More than 90% of the dead were civilians. The figure of 4,385 dead is only those who could be found under the rubble. The real death toll is many times higher. A lot of children are dying who don’t know what Hamas and the IDF are.

The humanitarian situation is also getting worse. There has been no electricity for about two weeks. My family uses solar panels, so we have internet and at least some electricity. Most don’t have this. People charge their phones in hospitals where there are diesel generators, but there is less and less diesel for them. Pharmacies are closed, medicines are only available in hospitals, but they are also running out.

The water in the taps is provided for two hours a day—it’s dirty, but you have to drink it, there is no other water. No food. Large supermarkets closed in the first days of the war, because… people swept away everything that was there, but there were no new products. We mainly eat bread and canned food. Even animals suffer. I have three kittens in my house, and give them just a little food, because there’s nowhere to get more.

The fact that the population is allegedly leaving Gaza is an Israeli lie. Most remained in their homes. People are not leaving even under the threat of death. At the same time, phones are constantly receiving threatening messages from Israeli numbers. You may also receive a notification that “your house will be bombed” so that people feel in danger every minute.

We know that Russia opposes the West and does not support Israeli crimes. In Gaza they love Russia and the Russian people very much. Among the Arab countries, there is a very good attitude towards Qatar, Algeria, and Yemen. Among non-Arab ones—towards Iran. We believe that Iran and Hezbollah will intervene and prevent the genocide of Gaza.

But the attitude towards the governments of Egypt, the UAE and Jordan is very bad. Here, they are considered traitors who caved in to the USA and Israel. The final straw was the Jordanian king’s announcement to provide air bases to the American Air Force. And in general, the Jordanian government’s attitude towards the Palestinians has always been bad. If you have a Palestinian passport, the Jordanian security forces treat you like shit—they could detain you at the airport, or on the street, or raid you with a search.

As for the ground operation, I do not believe that Israel will launch it. The last time they carried out a limited ground operation was in 2014, when Hamas did not have the weapons it has today. And even then, Israel suffered great losses. Now they will be hundreds of times higher. If they enter Gaza, they will all remain here. People believe that Hamas will win. Support for the movement has only grown. Israel will achieve nothing by bombing.”

Anglozionism

Russia’s Neutrality Ballet On Israel-Palestine

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Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,Photo Credit: The Cradle

Is it possible that the philo-Semitic Russian President Vladimir Putin is slowly but surely re-evaluating his geopolitical assessment of Israel? To call this the key riddle in Moscow’s corridors of power is actually an understatement.

There are no outward signs of such a seismic shift – at least when it comes to the officially “neutral” Russian position on the intractable Israel-Palestine drama.

Except for one stunning statement last Friday at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit in Bishkek, when Putin blasted Israel’s “cruel methods” employed to blockade Gaza, and compared it with “the siege of Leningrad during World War Two.”

“That’s unacceptable,” declared the Russian president, and warned that when all of Gaza’s 2.2 million civilians “have to suffer, including women and children, it’s hard for anyone to agree with this.”

Putin’s comments may have been one hint at the changes underway in the frustratingly opaque Russia-Israel relationship. A close second is this very important article published last Friday on Vzglyad, a security strategy website close to the Kremlin, diplomatically titled “Why Russia remains neutral in the conflict in the Middle East.”

It’s crucial to note that only six months ago and mirroring a near consensus among Russia’s intelligence community, Vzglyad editors were calling for Moscow to shift its considerable political weight toward supporting the number one issue for the Arab and Islamic worlds.

The article noted the key points Putin voiced in Bishkek: there’s no alternative to negotiations; Tel Aviv was subjected to a brutal attack and has the right to defend itself; a real settlement is possible only via an independent Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem.

The Russian president favors the UN’s original “two states” solution and believes that a Palestinian state should be established “by peaceful means.” But, as much as the conflict was “a direct result of the failed policy of the United States in the Middle East,” Putin rejects Tel Aviv’s plans to launch a ground operation in Gaza.

This qualified hedging is certainly not evidence of Putin swinging to what is a near consensus among the General Staff, the siloviki in several intel agencies, and his ministry of defense: They consider that Israel may be a de facto enemy of the Russian Federation, allied with Ukraine, the US and NATO.

Follow the money

Tel Aviv has been extremely cautious not to frontally antagonize Russia in Ukraine, and this may be a direct consequence of the notoriously cordial relations between Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Yet way more consequential than Israel on the geopolitical chessboard are Moscow’s evolving relations with Arab states today, especially OPEC+ partner Saudi Arabia which has helped thwart western efforts to control oil prices.

Also highly central to Russia’s regional policymaking is its strategic partnership with Iran, which has reaped dividends in Syria and the Caucasus, and which helps contain US expansionism. Finally, Moscow’s complex, multi-layered, back-and-forth with Ankara is crucial to Russian economic and geopolitical ambitions in Eurasia.

All three West Asian powers are Muslim-majority states, important affiliations for a multipolar Russia that hosts its own sizable Muslim population.

And for these three regional actors, without distinction, the current collective punishment of Gaza transgresses any possible red line.

Israel is also not that significant anymore in Moscow’s financial considerations. Since the 1990s, immense quantities of Russian funds have been transiting to Israel, but now, a substantial portion is returning right back to Russia.

The notorious case of billionaire Mikhail Friedman illustrates this new reality well. The oligarch quit his home in the UK and moved to Israel a week before the launch of Al-Aqsa Flood – which in turn had him hastily grab his Russian passport and head to Moscow for safety.

Friedman, who leads the Alfa Group with major interests in telecom, banking, retail, and insurance, and is a wealthy survivor of the 1998 financial crisis, is suspected by the Russians of “contributing” as much as $150 million to the enemy regime in Kiev.

The reaction by Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin could not have been sharper – or less concerned about Israel’s sentiments on the matter:

“Anyone who left the country and engaged in reprehensible acts, celebrating gunfire on Russian territory and wishing victory to the Nazi Kiev regime, should realize they are not only unwelcome here, but if they do return, Magadan (a notorious transit port to the gulag in the Stalin era) is waiting for them.”

Russophobia meets collective punishment

As the collective west resorted to a monomaniacal “We are all Israelis now,” the Kremlin’s strategy is to visibly position itself as the mediator of choice in this conflict – not only for the Arab and Muslim worlds but also for the Global South/Global Majority.

That was the purpose of this week’s Russian draft resolution at the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, which was predictably shot down by the usual suspects.

Three permanent Security Council members – US, UK and France, plus their neo-colony Japan – voted against it. To the rest of the world, this looked like exactly what it was: irrational western Russophobia and US puppet states validating Israel’s genocidal bombardment of civilian-dense Gaza.

Off the record, intelligence analysts point to how the Russian General Staff, the intel apparatus, and the ministry of defense seem to be organically aligning with global sentiments on Israel’s excessive aggressions.

The problem is that official and public Russian criticism of Netanyahu’s serial, psychotic incitation to violence, alongside his rightwing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has been non-existent.

Moscow insiders insist that the Kremlin’s official “neutral” position is frontally clashing with its defense and security agencies – especially GRU and SVR – which will never forget that Israel was directly involved in the killing of Russians in Syria.

That view has strengthened since September 2018 when Israel’s Air Force used an Ilyushin-20M electronic reconnaissance plane as cover against Syrian missiles, causing it to be shot down and killing all 15 Russians on board.

This silence in the corridors of power is mirrored by silence in the public sphere. There has been no debate in the Duma about the Russian position on Israel-Palestine. And no debate at the Security Council since early October.

Yet a subtle hint was offered by Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, who stressed that “peaceful coexistence” has a “religious dimension” and requires “just peace.” This does not exactly align with the announced ethnic cleansing of “human animals” (copyright Israeli Defense Ministry) in Gaza.

Along some corridors close to power, there’s an alarming rumor of an intricate shadow play between Moscow and Washington, wherein the Americans will deal with Israel in exchange for the Russians dealing with Ukraine.

While this would seal the west’s already ongoing process of throwing the sweaty sweatshirt actor in Kiev under the bus, the Kremlin is highly unlikely to trust any American deal, and certainly not one that would marginalize Russian influence in strategic West Asia.

This two-state solution is dead

Russia’s “neutrality” ballet will continue. Moscow is impressing on Tel Aviv the notion that even within the framework of its strategic partnership with Iran, weapons that could threaten Israel – as in, ending up with Hezbollah and Hamas – will not be exported. The quid pro quo of this arrangement would be that Israel also not sell anything Russian-threatening to Kiev either.

But unlike the US and the UK, Russia will not designate Hamas as a terrorist organization. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been very forthright on this issue: Moscow keeps its contacts with both sides; its “number one priority” is “the interest of the country’s (Russian) citizens who live both in Palestine and Israel”; and Russia will remain “a party that has the potential to participate in the settlement processes.”

Neutrality, of course, may reach a dead end. Overwhelmingly, for the Arab and Muslim states actively courted by the Kremlin, the dismantlement of Zionist-led settler-colonialism should be the “number one priority.”

This implies that the two-state solution, for all practical purposes, is fully dead and buried. Yet there’s no evidence anyone, not least Moscow, is ready to admit it.

It's All About Jews

Netanyahoo’s Strategic Dilemma: Lose/Lose

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via Moon of Alabama

Israel is a colonial settler state in permanent conflict with the suppressed natives.

It thought it could survive in that state, or even extend its settlements, by deterring opposing forces with its superior military.

Hamas has breached that deterrence myth by inflicting, in one day, more casualties in Israel than it had experienced in any previous wars.

Natanyahoo is under pressure to restore the deterrence, to again provide the Zionists with a feeling of superiority.

He can not do that.

Any land attack in Gaza means urban warfare in an already destroyed city with large underground facilities. During the taking of Bakhmut the Wagener forces had in total some 40,000 casualties (dead and wounded). The other side had more than 70,000. What price would the IDF have to pay to ‘destroy Hamas’?

The other factor is of course Hizbullah and other resistance groups, which may well attack Israel from the north and various other directions. Hizbullah has loudly said it would do so should the IDF enter Gaza. It has some 100,000 missiles – more than enough to exhaust Israel’s air defenses. Its longest reach missiles can attack any major city within Israel. There have already been daily fire exchanges at the norther border.

The 2006 war in Lebanon has shown that Hizbullah is dug in and very able to defend itself. It has since gained more experience by fighting ISIS in Syria. Neither U.S. air force attacks nor a land force invasion can hinder Hizbullah from firing its missiles.

(Syria, as well as Iran, will not intervene in the war unless they are directly attacked.)

Netanyahoo must attack Gaza to restore deterrence. He can not attack Gaza because the urban warfare would cause large Israeli casualties. He can not attack Gaza because Hizbullah would then destroy the myth of the superior settler state even more than Hamas has done so far.

Israel, with the help of the U.S., has tried to push the population of Gaza into Egypt. From Egypt’s standpoint that would be a humanitarian solution, at least as long as others pay for it. But it would cause a serious strategic problem. Resistance by Hamas and others against Israel would continue indefinitely, but Egypt would be held responsible for it. It can not and will not take on that burden.

Netanyahoo’s next idea was to starve Gaza. But the world will not let him do that. At least not beyond a certain point. Even the UN Secretary General has visited the Rafah crossing. Other global organizations, like the WHO and ASEAN, have spoken up. Pictures of starving people will make it impossible for the west to support that ‘solution’.

Meanwhile Hamas fighters will continue to sit in their tunnels, ready to defend their land, and likely with enough provisions to hold out for months.

Israeli settlers, with the support of the IDF, are rampaging through the West Bank. They are killing more Palestinians and further enrage the global public against their deeds. This will escalate.

Israel’s decision making is paralyzed. It will for now continue to talk of a ground invasion but will not launch one. It will also continue to starve Gaza.

But something will soon break. At any minute there might be a new large atrocity in Gaza or a pogrom in the West Bank. Any miscalculation in the north could launch that front into a hot war. Hizbullah could start to ‘preemptively’ invade Israeli proper.

But Israel’s Jewish public is still demanding a war of revenge. It still needs the restoration of its deterrence and superiority.

But what if that turns out to be impossible to achieve?

Well. Then something else must change.

As Adam Shatz summarizes in the London Review of Books:

Vengeful Pathologies (archived)

The inescapable truth is that Israel cannot extinguish Palestinian resistance by violence, any more than the Palestinians can win an Algerian-style liberation war: Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs are stuck with each other, unless Israel, the far stronger party, drives the Palestinians into exile for good. The only thing that can save the people of Israel and Palestine, and prevent another Nakba – a real possibility, while another Holocaust remains a traumatic hallucination – is a political solution that recognises both as equal citizens, and allows them to live in peace and freedom, whether in a single democratic state, two states, or a federation. So long as this solution is avoided, a continuing degradation, and an even greater catastrophe, are all but guaranteed.

It's All About Jews

Why Biden Lied on Gaza Hospital Attack

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by M. K. Bhadrakumar via Indian Punchline

US President Joe Biden hugs Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu upon arrival at Tel Aviv airport, October 18, 2023

White lies are often uttered to protect someone or deflect the upsetting truths. The US President Joseph Biden’s white lie obfuscated the horrific truth about the Israeli missile attack on the Baptist church in Gaza on Tuesday night, which took the lives of over 500 people.

Biden probably felt safe because platinum grade war crimes seldom get probed — Vietnam (My Lai massacre), Afghanistan (Kunduz hospital airstrike) and Iraq (Fallujah). Nonetheless, there will be a trial at the high court of his own conscience.

If and when such a moment comes, all he needs to do is to read a stunning blog written by Jonathan Cook, an award-winning British journalist and the author of Israel and the Clash of Civilisations who was based in Nazareth (Israel) for twenty years — This is another Iraqi WMD moment. We are being gaslit.

Cook wrote: “It’s not just ‘unlikely’ that a Palestinian rocket hit the Gaza hospital. It’s impossible. The media know this, they just don’t dare say it.”

Biden knows it, too. Read carefully his remark Wednesday, upon arrival in Israel: “Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you. But there’s a lot of people out there, not sure.” [Emphasis added.]

The White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan who drafted those words for Biden to deliver took care to lace the statement with caveats. A White House statement by NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson that followed a few hours also prevaricated: “While we continue to collect information, our current assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information, is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday.” [Emphasis added.]

The big question, therefore, is: Why did Biden indulge in a risky white lie? Multiple factors come into play here. The news of the Gaza blast was already available Tuesday night in DC, as Biden and his entourage sat on the runway waiting to leave for Tel Aviv, with gnawing anxiety about what the visit would be able to achieve.

Indeed, the visit was a gamble. Yet, cancellation of the trip was a “non-option”, as compulsions of domestic politics and foreign policy had coalesced inseparably by then. One only had to follow the withering criticism of Biden by Fox News and the growing demands by the Republicans to wreak vengeance on Iran for empowering the Palestinian resistance.

Equally, Biden was conscious of the debris of the regional tour undertaken by Secretary of State Antony Blinken just the previous week. Blinken was subjected to snubs and tongue-lashing in a way none of his predecessors ever probably experienced in West Asian capitals. The US’ influence in the region is at rock bottom.

Biden knew he had to act — and to be seen as acting. He also sensed that the optics meant a great deal to Israel (a key ally), to Benjamin Netanyahu (an intimate personal friend of yesteryears whose political career is in jeopardy), and, of course, to Biden himself (as his re-election bid is at stake.)

Biden took out of his toolbox Modi-style “hug diplomacy” at the tarmac of the Tel Aviv airport. As he hugged Netanyahu, Biden killed three birds in a single shot: first, he silenced the Republican Party criticism of him for having appeased Iran and neglected Israel’s security. Second, Biden underscored that although the going gets tough in the proxy war in Ukraine, the US firmly holds Israel’s back.

Most important, he planted rings of engagement around Netanyahu although the latter is at the end of the road in his political career, as he is Washington’s best bet to ensure that future Israeli behaviour remains amenable to US persuasion.

This last point holds the key. The US is not looking for a regional conflict in West Asia. Biden understands Israel’s zest for retribution against Hamas but is averse to widening the conflict. The US takes seriously Tehran’s warning about direct intervention if Israeli attacks continue. But then, Tehran is also not looking for a conflict.

From such a perspective, Biden reaffirmed to Netanyahu Washington’s stalwart support for Israel’s self-defence, but also urged Israel “not to be consumed by rage” in its response to the attack by Hamas. As he put it, “Justice must be done. But I caution that, while you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it. After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. While we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes.”

Certainly, it needed courage to admit own mistakes to counsel moderation to the present Israeli government, which is dominated by ultranationalist forces. The leader of the Religious Zionist Party, Bezalel Yoel Smotrich is Israel’s Finance Minister — a supporter of expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank who opposes Palestinian statehood and denies the existence of the Palestinian people.

The leader of the Otzma Yehudit, Itamar Ben-Gvir is Netanyahu’s Minister of National Security, who was once convicted of supporting the terrorist group Kach, which espoused Kahanism, an extremist religious Zionist ideology, whom Haaretz newspaper described as the ‘go-to man’ for Jewish extremists and whose client list “reads like a ‘Who’s Who’ of suspects in Jewish terror cases and hate crimes in Israel”.

Yet, following hours of talks with Netanyahu and his war cabinet, Biden disclosed that Israel had agreed to allow the opening of the Egypt-Gaza border to deliveries of desperately needed food, water and medical supplies after the 11-day total blockade. “The Palestinian people are suffering greatly as well, and we mourn the loss of innocent Palestinian lives like the entire world,” Biden said. “The people of Gaza need food, water, medicine and shelter.”

Later, Biden remarked during a refuelling stop at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, “Israel has been badly victimised but the truth is they have an opportunity to relieve suffering of people who have nowhere to go – it’s what they should do.”

The Guardian newspaper wrote that “US officials are believed to have tried to convince their Israeli counterparts in meetings during the presidential visit that a scorched-earth response in Gaza would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, a loss of global support for Israel and perhaps a wider war, without eradicating Hamas.”

Elsewhere, in another report, Guardian also noted, “That Biden is emotionally and politically committed to Israel is not open to question. His career confirms it, as do his votes when he was a senator; he has visited Israel many times, from the era of Golda Meir to the present day. His speech in Washington last week after the Hamas murders was an exceptionally powerful moral statement of the Israel with which he identifies.

“But Biden also supports the Palestinians… The most obvious reason for this visit is for Biden to show solidarity after the slaughter on 7 October. Showing empathy is one of Biden’s default strengths. But he has also travelled to urge a strategically informed response by Israel, avoiding overreaction. Escalation is against the US’s interests. Washington also wants to keep open the possibility that Hamas’s hostages, some of whom are Americans, can be returned alive.

Time will tell how far Biden succeeded in his mission. He had no choice but to resort to a white lie for a larger good. The clincher comes as the hostage crisis prolongs. Biden seems to be hopeful that Washington’s efforts through mediation by Qatar will show results. If that happens, it will have a profound impact on American opinion.

Anglozionism

Gaza – This is Another Iraqi WMD Moment. We are Being Gaslit

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via Jonathan Cook

It’s not just ‘unlikely’ that a Palestinian rocket hit the Gaza hospital. It’s impossible. The media know this, they just don’t dare say it

Let’s say it again: The BIGGEST fake news comes from the establishment media. When the stakes are high, it barely bothers to hide its role as mouthpiece for Western propaganda.

This is another Iraqi WMD moment. We are being gaslit. Believe your eyes and ears, and the laws of physics, not the lies being peddled by our leaders and media about last night’s missile strike on the Baptist hospital in Gaza:

  1. No Palestinian group has a rocket that can hit a hospital, killing hundreds. What they have are glorified fireworks that can cause minor damage and the occasional death or two. If Hamas or Islamic Jihad could cause the kind of damage that happened last night, you would hear about it happening in Tel Aviv or Ashkelon too. You don’t, because they can’t.

  2. Israel’s apologists (and there are lots of them) are sharing all sorts of videos unrelated to the hospital strike. But the video of the strike itself shows that an incredibly large and powerful weapon is used. Listen to the noise the missile makes just before the hit – that whooshing noise is caused by its phenomenal velocity as it cuts through the air. That is not the noise of a falling Palestinian rocket.

If you watch videos being shared of Palestinian rockets being fired, notice how slowly they travel. Almost at a snail’s pace. If they fail, they drop at free-fall speed, not the near-supersonic speed of the missile that hit the hospital. To think otherwise is to misunderstand the laws of physics.

  1. Israel’s apologists are trying to further muddy the waters by suggesting that either a Palestinian rocket fell, or was intercepted, and the rocket or fragments of it hit a very large ammo dump in the hospital. Let’s just accept the racist premise that hundreds of families were quite happy to seek safety next to a huge stash of explosives in the middle of a relentless Israeli bombing campaign. Let’s also accept the fantastical idea that a falling glorified firework or fragment of it could penetrate the hospital’s strong walls and set off such an explosion. If all this was true, you would still see a series of secondary explosions as the arms were detonated by the initial explosion. You don’t because there is only one explosion – from an enormous missile.

  2. It’s a desperate psyop, so Israel has now released a recording of two Hamas militants conveniently having a chat after the missile strike, discussing whether they or Islamic Jihad did it. This is the same Israel that did not detect months of planning by Hamas that was needed to organise its breakout 10 days ago. But Israel got lucky this time, it seems, and just happened to be listening in when Huey and Louie decided to self-incriminate.

Remember Israel has a whole unit of ‘mistaravim’, Israeli Jewish undercover agents trained to pose as Palestinians and secretly operate among Palestinians. Israel produced a highly popular TV series about such people, set in Gaza, called Fauda. You have to be beyond credulous to think that Israel couldn’t, and wouldn’t, rig up a call like this to fool us, just as it regularly fools Palestinians in Gaza.

Most of the people spreading these lies know they are lies, including the media, and most especially the Middle East and defence correspondents. At least a few, like the BBC’s Jeremy Bowen and Jon Donnison, are trying cautiously to suggest it’s unlikely a Hamas rocket could cause damage on the scale seen at the Gaza hospital. But it’s not unlikely. It’s impossible, and they know it. They just don’t dare say it.