Russian actress Olga Kormukhina – about the psychological reasons for Ukrainians’ hatred of Russians:
This is the story of Cain and Abel, this is the story of envy. We so love the people whom we have done good, and so we do not love those whom we have offended. Because this is a reminder, first of all, of our unworthiness. I think this is the reason why Ukrainians hate Russians. It is absolutely human. No matter how hard I try, I can’t hate Ukrainians.
Poland and Lithuania became a joint kingdom in 1386 with the marriage of the Polish queen Jadwiga and the Lithuanian Grand Duke Jogaila, so most of the land that is now Belarus ended up under Polish rule anyway. Although Poland and Lithuania at the time of their union were equal (on paper anyway), in reality Poland, by having perhaps a larger population and more wealth, and a 300-year headstart in being a Catholic Christian country (with the benefits implied), ended up the dominant partner. The Lithuanian elites melted into the Polish aristocracy (szlachta) and lost their Lithuanian identity and culture, and Lithuanian farmers and artisans (who came under the Catholic Church) ended up no better off than other groups of people including Orthodox Eastern Slavs under Polish aristocratic rule.
The Poles kept all these different peoples, Lithuanians, Galicians, Volhynians and others alike, at arm’s length by employing Jews (who could read) to administer their estates and collect taxes from their peasant tenants. It was this situation, with Jews employed as bailiffs and tax collectors, that later became the context for the disastrous and tragic relations between Jews and the peoples ruled by the Polish elites, starting with Bohdan Khmelnitski’s 1648 Cossack rebellion against Polish rule. The rebellion culminated in massacres of thousands of Jewish people in cities and towns by Cossacks and other peoples oppressed by Polish rule, after Polish elites fled and left Jewish people (the majority of whom having had nothing to do with working for their Polish feudal overlords, and who were just as oppressed as the peasants who killed them) in their shtetls to their fate.
The name of Bohdan Khmelnitski was anathema to Jewish people for a long time before World War II because of the huge scale of the violence and killings.
Bear all this in mind, when Poland decides it’s going to resurrect its beloved Commonwealth over western Ukraine.
by: Refinnejenna
by Gilbert Doctorow via Gilbert Doctorow
Excerpt
[ . . . ] Now I want to address the title issue of yesterday’s News Review program to which I have added a question mark. I also am obliged to explain here my speaking of the “stupid Germans” and of the “pragmatic Italians” as regards maintaining or cutting off all commercial ties with Russia.
Of course, I did not mean to be insulting to one side and flattering to the other. There is always a reason for everything, and to my mind the reason for Germans’ “stupidity” on Russia is the draconian censorship in place against all nonconforming reporting about the war. But that goes back to the generalized McCarthyism in Germany and denunciations of so-called Putinversteher, meaning anyone who saw another side to the story on Russia, that I remarked upon in essays going back 5 or 6 years.
The brainwashing of Germany did not happen overnight. And then there is the specific German tradition of idealism that goes back a couple of centuries. German self-righteousness was marginalized politically for more than 50 years following the country’s defeat in WWII under an official policy of remorse for the horrors the country perpetrated domestically and across Europe under Adolf Hitler.
By the turn of the new millennium, however, a younger generation of Germans was saying the time had come to leave behind collective guilt over the misdeeds of their grandparents and to move on and assume the place among nations that their country’s economic strength merited. This new movement in turn evolved into the ‘holier than thou’ posture of the Greens and other German political streams which translates into excoriation of Putin’s Russia for its war of aggression in Ukraine and alleged war crimes.
Against this tidal wave of moral outrage among their compatriots, there is arguably little that German industrialists and even the Mittelstand can do publicly. I mention the Mittelstand, because they have been the backbone of the German economic miracle and yet these family businesses of middle and small size are the ones least able to escape the financial pain of the sanctions policies on Russia. Unlike Germany’s biggest corporations, they lack the human and financial resources to close down factories and move to America as Bayer Leverkusen is doing.
Turning to Italy, we see a very different story. As my hosts on Press TV pointed out, recent polls indicate that more than 50% of the population opposes further military aid to Ukraine. This is so because unlike Germany and France, Italy’s media scene is more open, less controlled. And this relative freedom has an explanation: namely the strength of populist parties and political leaders who oppose the foreign and domestic policies written in Brussels and promoted within Italy by the traditional parties. In this regard it pays to mention the Salvini faction, the Berlusconi faction and even Georgia Meloni herself, who long campaigned as an anti-Brussels politician.
What I see in Italy is precisely the same divisions and importance of populism that make the USA arguably the best protector of freedom of speech within the Western World that Washington leads. Why? For this we have to thank Donald Trump, who from the beginning of his presidency said from the office of the President things about NATO, about other Western leaders that would have brought down the FBI on the heads of ordinary citizens like myself had we said them before Trump did. I say emphatically that it was Trump who saved American democracy, not America’s own self-righteous Left and its iconic publications like The Nation, which was once a bastion of human rights defenders but is now just another promoter of domestic repression. But this is a subject for separate discussion.
I close this explanatory note to my remarks on Press TV yesterday with a few words about Italian “pragmatism” and what that means for commercial relations with Russia.
For all of its economic heft, Italy is less resilient than Germany financially and commercially. Italian businessmen placed great hopes on trade with Russia from the moment the market opened up in the 1990s. Of course, Italians had been leaders in trade with Russia during Soviet times, and their achievement in profiting from the Soviet market for automobiles by way of the Togliatti factory of FIAT was the tip of the iceberg. Now the new, free and market oriented Russian Federation presented still greater opportunities for small and medium sized Italian firms and they jumped into the fray.
As I remarked in the interview yesterday, here in Petersburg I see a strong Italian presence that by its nature is not done hands-off, via parallel trading through Belarus, Dubai, Kazakhstan or other exotic routes. No, by its nature it has to be directed from Italy by the producers. This is surely the case of the “Wines of Italy Week” at my nearby Perekryostok supermarket. This is a nationwide store chain that can offer such a promotion only if it has a very large assured supply and is not chasing after small lots of product in third countries engaging in parallel trade.
When I visit stores selling home electrical goods and electronics, and I will write about this in a few days in what will be my Petersburg Travel Notes – Part III, I see in mass consumer distributors white goods produced by Italian concerns.
An oil and gas giant like ENI has to submit to government orders on breaking contracts with Russia. But Italy’s small and medium sized companies are doing nothing of the kind.
All of which leads me to ask, how long Giorgia Meloni will be able to honor her promises of substantial and unlimited deliveries of arms and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
by Vladimir Golstein
Brown University
In 1928, almost one hundred years ago, French intellectual, Julian Benda wrote this amazing book on the subject. A true Tolstoyan, he starts his study of this treason with quotation from Tolstoy.
Tolstoy describes two military officers, one of whom reprimands another for giving a brutal order to punish a soldier for some minor misdemeanor. Have you read Gospels, the officer asks. To which another replies, Have you read the Military Rules Book?
For Benda, the treason consists in the fact, that more and more intellectuals, keep on reading Military Rules Book, but ignore Gospels and other higher truths. Rather than appealing to the feelings of humanity, brotherhood, solidarity, son-ship to our common father, intellectuals read modern manuals, and push them further and further.
Nationalism, class and race warfare, religion, gender. Anything that can divide us further, now gets more and more intellectual support from intellectuals.
Rather than pouring cold water on common passions and obsessions, intellectuals pour gasoline, finding more and more examples or theories that would fuel these passions further.
For Benda, writing in 1928, these intellectual traitors, did all they could to support WWI, and now fueling another one, which he predicted with chilling precision.
A while ago, I published an article about Mikhail Bulgakov (author of Master and Margarita) and his horror at Ukrainian nationalism which he witnessed first hand living in Kiev on the eve of Revolution and civil war, and his anger at teachers, book-keepers, and other educated people, like Petliura, who were instrumental in organizing brutal civil war, and Holocaust before Holocaust, which took place on Ukrainian territory in 1920s.
Not much had been changed since then. I am afraid, it is the same type of semi-intellectuals, treasonous intellectuals for Benda, who keep on running things in Ukraine and elsewhere. The same promotion of hatreds, and anger, and everything else that can divide people.
Why do I say this? Say, when there is a war going on, any real military person would spent money on military targets. OK, some bastards would hit civilians to generate panic. We don’t need to approve it, but we understand it.
But look at recent attacks that happened on Russian territory. Murder of Dugin’s daughter, murder of a blogger and writer, Tatarsky, attempted murder of another writer, Prilepin, and murder of his driver instead.
What sane military guy gives orders like that? Only demented intellectuals, who came to power, and want to punish or intimidate other intellectuals. These expensive operations have zero military value.
In Lithuania, one crazy Russian intellectual and hater of Putin, pours ketchup on the face of another crazy Russian intellectual and hater of Putin, Shenderovich, for not hating enough.
Same happened during the festival of poetry in Estonia university town, Tartu. Let me repeat again, festival of poetry, when one demented Jewish Ukrainian anti-Putin poet, demanded that the festival dropped another demented Jewish-Israeli anti-Putin poet, Linor Goralik, for writing poetry in Russian.
Treasonous intellectuals came to power, and the result is ugly.
Needless to say, that the same breed of treasonous intellectuals, articulates neo-liberal and neo-conservative positions, and drives this country to more and more hatred, paranoia, and violence. They are not ordering hits on each other, yet, nor do they create kill lists, as they do now in Ukraine, sponsored by interior ministry and courtesy of the latest American technology, but we all know that Ukraine is a laboratory, where western intellectuals have a free run for their treacherous ideas. If it work there, expect it to hit the fan at home.
by Yuan Hong via Global Times
cyber attack Photo:VCG
For a long time, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has plotted “peaceful evolution” and “color revolutions” as well as spying activities around the world. Although details about these operations have always been murky, a new report released by China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center and Chinese cybersecurity company 360 on Thursday unveiled the main technical means the CIA has used to scheme and promote unrest around the world.
According to the report, since the beginning of the 21st century, the rapid development of the internet offered “new opportunity” for CIA’s infiltration activities in other countries and regions. Any institutions or individuals from anywhere in the world that use US digital equipment or software could be turned into the CIA’s “puppet agent.”
For decades, the CIA has overthrown or attempted to overthrow at least 50 legitimate governments abroad (the CIA has only recognized seven of these instances), causing turmoil in related countries. Whether it is the “color revolution” in Ukraine in 2014, the “sunflower revolution” in Taiwan island, China, or the “saffron revolution” in Myanmar in 2007, the “green revolution” in Iran in 2009, and other attempted “color revolutions” — the US intelligence agencies are behind them all, according to the report.
The US’ leading position in technologies of telecommunication and on-site command has provided unprecedented possibilities for the US intelligence community to launch “color revolutions” abroad. The report released by the National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center and 360 disclosed five methods commonly used by the CIA.
The first is to provide encrypted network communication services. In order to help protesters in some countries in the Middle East keep in touch and avoid being tracked and arrested, an American company, which, reportedly, has a US military background, developed TOR technology that can stealthily access the internet — the Onion Router technology.
The servers encrypt all information that flows through them to help certain users to surf the web anonymously. After the project was launched by American companies, it was immediately provided free of charge to anti-government elements in Iran, Tunisia, Egypt and other countries and regions to ensure that those “young dissidents who want to shake their own government’s rule” can avoid the scrutiny of the government, according to the report.
The second method is to provide offline communication services. For example, in order to ensure that anti-government personnel in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries can still keep in touch with the outside world when the internet is disconnected, Google and Twitter quickly launched a special service called “Speak2Tweet,” which allows users to dial and upload voice notes for free.
These messages are automatically converted into tweets and then uploaded to the internet, and publicly released through Twitter and other platforms to complete the “real-time reporting” of the event on site, said the report.
The third method is to provide on-site command tools for rallies and parades based on the internet and wireless communications. The report noted that the US RAND Corporation has spent several years developing a non-traditional regime change technology called “swarming.” The tool is used to help a large number of young people connected through the internet join the “one shot for another place” mobile protest movement, greatly improving the efficiency of on-site command of the event.
The fourth is American developed software called “Riot.” The software supports 100 percent independent broadband network, provides variable WiFi network, does not rely on any traditional physical access method, does not need telephone, cable or satellite connection, and can easily escape any form of government monitoring.
The last one is the “anti-censorship” information system. The US State Department regards the research and development of the system as an important task and has injected more than $30 million into the project.
High vigilance needed
Moreover, the National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center and 360 company have spotted Trojan horse programs or plug-ins related to the CIA in recent cyberattacks targeting China. The public security authorities have investigated these cases, the Global Times has learned.
Aside from the five methods the CIA has used to incite unrest globally, through further technical analysis, the National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center and 360 company also identified another nine methods used by the CIA as “weapons” for cyberattacks, including attack module delivery, remote control, information collection and stealing, and third-party open-source tools.
The response center and 360 company also spotted an information-stealing tool used by the CIA, which is also one of the 48 advanced cyber weapons exposed in the confidential document of the US National Security Agency.
The discovery of these information-stealing tools shows that the CIA and the US National Security Agency will jointly attack the same victim, or share cyberattack weapons with each other, or provide relevant technical or human support, according to the report.
These new findings also offer important new evidence in tracing the identity of the APT-C-39 attackers. In 2020, 360 company independently discovered an APT organization that had never been exposed to the outside world, and named it APT-C-39. The organization specifically targets China and its friendly countries to carry out cyberattack and stealing activities, and its victims are spread all over the world.
The report also noted that the danger of CIA attack weapons can be glimpsed from third-party open-source tools as it often uses these tools to carry out cyberattacks.
The initial attack of the CIA cyberattack operation will generally be carried out against the victim’s network equipment or server. After obtaining the target purview, it will further explore the network topology of the target organization and move to other networked devices in the internal network to steal more sensitive information and data.
The controlled target computer is monitored in real time for 24 hours, and all information will be recorded. Once a USB device is connected, the private files in the victim’s USB device will be monitored and automatically stolen. When conditions permit, the camera, microphone and GPS positioning device on the user terminal will be remotely controlled and accessed, according to the report.
These CIA cyber weapons use standardized espionage technical specifications, and various attack methods echo and interlock and have now covered almost all internet and IoT assets worldwide, and can control other countries’ networks anytime, anywhere to steal important and sensitive data from other countries.
The American-style cyber hegemony is evident, the report notes.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Thursday that US intelligence and espionage activities and cyberattacks on other countries deserve high vigilance from the international community.
The US must take seriously and respond to the concerns from the international community, and stop using cyber weapons to carry out espionage and cyberattacks around the world, Mao said.
In response to the highly systematic, intelligent, and concealed cyberattacks launched by the CIA against China, it is important for domestic government agencies, scientific research institutions, industrial enterprises, and commercial organizations to quickly find out and deal with them immediately upon discovery, the report says.
The report suggests that in order to effectively deal with imminent network and real-world threats, while adopting self-controllable localized equipment, China should organize self-inspection against APT attacks as soon as possible, and gradually establish a long-term defense system to achieve comprehensive systematic prevention and control against advanced attacks.
by Pepe Escobar
via Strategic-Culture
Remember Putin: “We haven’t even started anything yet.”
“Whispers of an ‘evil power’ were heard in lines at dairy shops, in streetcars, stores, apartments, kitchens, suburban and long-distance trains, at stations large and small, in dachas, and on beaches. Needless to say, truly mature and cultured people did not tell these stories about an evil power’s visit to the capital. In fact they even made fun of them and tried to talk sense into those who told them.”
Mikhail Bulgakov, The Master and Margarita
To quote Dylan, who might have been a Bulgakov epigone: “So let us stop talking falsely now/the hour’s getting late.” By now it’s quite clear the delusion of a “peace” deal in Ukraine is the latest wet dream of the “non-agreement capable” usual suspects, always hooked on lies and plunder while deftly manipulating selected liberals among the Russian elite.
The goal would be to appease Moscow with a few concessions, while crucially keeping Odessa, Nikolaev and Dnipro, and safeguarding what would be NATO’s access to the Black Sea.
All that while investing in rabid, resentful Poland to become an armed to the teeth EU military militia.
So any “negotiations” towards “peace” in fact mask a drive to postpone – just for a little while – the original masterplan: dismembering and destroying Russia.
There are very serious discussions in Moscow, even at the highest levels, on how the elite is really positioned. Rougly three groups can be identified: the Victory party; the “Peace” party – which Victory would describe as surrenders; and the Neutral/Undecided.
Victory certainly includes crucial actors such as Dmitry Medvedev; Rosneft’s Igor Sechin; Foreign Minister Lavrov; Nikolai Patrushev; head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Aleksandr Bastrykin; and – even under fire – certainly Defense Minister Shoigu.
“Peace” would include, among others, the head of Telegram, Pavel Durov; billionaire entrepreneur Andrey Melnichenko; metal/mining czar Alisher Usmanov (born in Uzbekistan); and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Neutral/Undecided would include Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin; mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin; Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, Anton Vaino; First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential administration and media czar, Alexey Gromov; Sberbank’s CEO Herman Gref; Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller; and – special bone of contention – perhaps FSB supremo Alexander Bortnikov.
It’s fair to argue the third group represents the elite majority. This means they heavily influence the entire course of the Special Military Operation (SMO), which by now has metastasized into an Anti-Terror Operation (ATO).
The “counter-offensive” fog of war
These different Russian views at the very top predictably elicit frantic speculation among US and NATO Think Tankland. Hostages of their own excitement, they even forget what anyone with an IQ over room temperature is aware of: Kiev – stuffed with $30 billion in NATO weaponry – may come up with less than zero effects out of its much lauded “counter-offensive”. Russian forces are more than prepared, and Ukraine lacks the surprise element.
Collective West hacks, after feverish head scratching, finally discovered that Kiev needs to go for a “combined arms operation” to get something out of its new deluge of NATO toys.
John Cleese has noted how the coronation of Charles The Tampax King looked like a Monty Python sketch. Now try this one as a sequel: the Hegemon cannot even pay its trillions in debt while Kiev P.R. goons complain that the $30 billion they got is peanuts.
On the Russian front, the indispensable Andrei Martyanov – a maelstrom of wit – has observed how most alarmed Russian military correspondents simply have no idea “what type and volume of combat information is pouring to the command posts in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don or staffs of frontline formations.”
He stresses that “no serious operational level officer” will even talk to these guys, joyfully described as “voenkurva” (roughly, “military bitches”), and simply will not “divulge any kind of operational data which is highly classified.”
So, as it stands, all the sound and fury about the “counter-offensive” is shrouded by a thick fog of war.
And that only serves to add more fuel to the fire of US Think Tankland wishful thinking. The new dominant narrative in the Beltway is that the leadership in Moscow is “fragmented and unpredictable”. And that may be leading to “a conventional defeat of a major nuclear power” whose “command-and-control system broke down.”
Yes: they actually believe in their own silly (copyright John Cleese) propaganda. They are the American equivalent of the Ministry of Silly Walks. Incapable of analyzing why and how the Russian elite holds different views on the method and the extent of the SMO/ATO, the best they can come up with is “protecting Ukraine is a strategic necessity, since the Russian threat increases if Moscow wins in Ukraine.”
What’s behind Prighozin’s sound and fury
Trademark American arrogance/ignorance does not erase the fact there seems to be a serious power struggle among the siloviki. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a siloviki, in fact denounced Shoigu and Gerasimov as incompetent, implying they only keep their posts out of loyalty to President Putin.
This is as serious as it gets. Because it’s linked to a key question posed across several educated silos in Moscow: if Russia is widely known to be the strongest military power in the world with the most advanced defensive and offensive missiles, how come they have not wrapped up the whole deal in the Ukrainian battlefield?
A plausible answer is that only 200,000 members of the Russian army are currently fighting, and about 400,000 to 600,000 are waiting in reserve for the Ukraine attack. While they wait they are in constant training; so waiting works to Russia’s advantage.
Once the famous “counter-offensive” peters out, Ukraine will be hit with massive force. There will be no negotiated settlement. Only unconditional surrender.
What goin’ on right now – the Prigozhin drama – is subordinated to this logic, running in parallel to a quite sophisticated media operation.
Yes, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) made several serious mistakes, as well as other Russian institutions, since the start of the SMO. To criticize them in public, constructively, is a salutary exercise.
Prighozin’s tactics are a gem; he manipulates a degree of public outrage/indignation to put pressure on the MoD bureaucracy by essentially telling the truth. He could even go as far as naming names: officers who are abandoning different sectors of the frontlines. In contrast, his Wagner “musicians” are pictured as true heroes.
Whether Prigozhin’s sound and fury will be enough to fine tune the MoD’s entrenched bureaucracy is an open question. Still, media coverage of the whole drama is essential; now that these problems are in the public domain, people will expect the MoD to act.
And by the way, this is the essential fact: Prighozin has been allowed (italics mine) to go as far as he wants by the Higher Power (the St. Petersburg connection). Otherwise he would be in a revamped-gulag by now.
So the next few weeks are absolutely crucial. Putin and the Security Council certainly know what everyone else doesn’t – including Prighozin. The key take away is that the ground will start to be laid for US/NATO to eventually turn rump Ukraine, the Baltic lap dogs, rabid Poland and a few other extras into a sort of Fortress Eastern Europe engaged in a war of attrition against Russia with the potential to last decades.
That may be the ultimate argument for Russia to finally go for the jugular, as soon as possible. Otherwise the future will be bleak. Well, not so bleak. Remember Putin: “We haven’t even started anything yet.”
Igor Strelkov is the nom de guerre of Igor Girkin
I had a conversation with a retired colonel, a former commander of a motorized rifle regiment. He seriously convinced me that everything is fine in the Ukraine war, we are advancing, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating. Every day we grind thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and soon Ukraine will have no one to fight. To my question, where does he get such information from, he replied that he closely follows the television news. And the Internet? He answered – he has a computer at home, but he does not know how to use it, and most importantly, he does not want to use the enemy Internet in principle, since American propaganda is going on there around the clock.
And I sadly thought that if even the former commander of a regiment has such a mindset, then what can we say about the mood of the majority of Russian television viewers.
But such sentiments in Russian society in the conditions of the failure of the NWO are a direct path to disaster.
*
Marginal remarks. In the end, I will say … ..
Five short theses.
Victory in the fight by a coalition of more than 50 states, both with elements of a hybrid war and with growing elements of direct military confrontation, with the virtual absence of allies (those that exist, with the exception of fraternal Belarus, are hypocritical and do not believe in our victory, this is, I think now obvious to everyone) requires the transfer of the state administration system, if not to the military, then to the mobilization rails. It is impossible to sit out until the systemic crisis in the United States. It was a good idea, but apparently not…. The United States is accelerating the crisis in a controlled manner and plans to get out of it by speeding up the defeat of Russia. Like under Reagan in the 1980s. One can only play ahead of the curve by creating an unexpected military-political situation for the United States.
In order to win, the war must become – popular. No quotes. The political and social unity of the front and rear must be ensured. Based on a single ideological vector. Victory vector. And this means that we need to start talking to the society. It is not for society to speak. And talk to the community. Very big difference.
It is impossible to solve this problem in the current state of the Russian elite. The elites obviously don’t want victory, they want a “defeat on points” and an “honorable surrender”. They do not want to face unpleasant realities. They are not capable of that. The moral and political decay of the elites is becoming the most obvious non-military risk in the current conflict for Russia. (Side note: the situation, in fact, on the “front” inspires me much more optimism than the situation in the rear). A purge of the elites is inevitable. The question is already in what mode to carry it out: from above, gradually and sparingly, or “as usual”.
It is impossible to demand some kind of “mobilization” and “belt tightening” from society in the current state of the elite and the state, when even the extremely tense situation at the front did not make internal squabbles calm down. Under such conditions, attempts to tighten the “nuts” in relation to the “taxable class” will be more than counter-productive. Rather destabilizing, to put it bluntly. A sharp rise in social discipline is needed. But for everyone. This requires political will. The presence of which, alas, is becoming less and less obvious.
On this, colleagues, with your permission, I am taking a moratorium on any comments on the situation in the ATO (Anti-Terror Operation) zone and around it. For a month. But we’ll see.
The introduction of censorship must begin with the introduction of self-censorship.
And I advise you the same.
Finally, people with brains began to see what I clearly saw (and warned about) already 9 years ago …
*
❗️According to updated information, on May 12, 2023, during a rocket attack on the city of Luhansk, the armed formations of Ukraine used two Storm Shadow cruise missiles (English-French production) and one anti-aircraft missile ADM-160B MALD (US production).
by Mike Ryan
Asking the question, “Why is Vladimir Putin backing Russian General Valery Gerasimov after four key setbacks during the war in Ukraine?” Major General Mick Ryan (Australia), expert analyst at the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, argues as follows:
(a) In any war, the general staff of the enemy and his leadership is the most desirable target. The elimination of the head of the General Staff leads to random planning and other unpleasant things. This is very effective, “especially given that modern military forces rely on communications and decision support tools based on AI.” However, a particular Russian commander does not seem to be the target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “This particular senior officer has been ineffective since the start of the war, so much so that it sometimes looks like he’s working for the other side.”
(b) We are talking about General Valery Gerasimov, “a four-time loser.” He made a fatal mistake when planning the actions of the RF Armed Forces at the first stage of the war, he had no alternative plans. He completely failed the start of mobilization, when it became clear that without it there was no way – he did not even foresee such a possibility – and moreover, apparently, he simply did not know about the old Soviet system of mobilization. He (even before the war), together with Sergei Shoigu, was responsible for the modernization program of the Russian Federation, and completely failed it. And finally, it was he who, leading the “January offensive”, achieved nothing.
(c) Given this record of poor performance, one might have thought that Gerasimov’s days might be numbered. But no. Of course, he is incompetent, but on the other hand “he is very well versed in palace politics and is very loyal to Putin.” The Kremlin values loyalty above competence. And besides, losers, “as Gerasimov may find out in the future, make excellent scapegoats.”
(d) The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected in the near future. In a situation where “Gerasimov’s sluggish and ineffective actions this year have consumed a large amount of ammunition, equipment and manpower. This will limit the ability of Gerasimov to effectively respond to Ukrainian offensives. Regardless of the number of obstacles that his troops erect for defense, the Russians will have to defend huge front line. This is a task that will challenge the best of armies, and the Russians can hardly be called such.”
Summary. “There is an old saying: ‘When your enemy is wrong, don’t stand in his way.’ In this war so far, Gerasimov has shown great talent for strategic mistakes. Therefore, the Ukrainians will not only avoid targeting Gerasimov, but they will probably do everything possible for Gerasimov to stay in power because, given his track record and the upcoming Ukrainian offensives, Gerasimov is likely to go from a four-time loser to a five-time loser in the coming months.”
#dedollarization
ASEAN members have agreed to increase the use of local currency transactions and push for a better regional payment connectivity, in a move that could be seen as a continuing shift in de-dollarization in the region. -ASEAN briefing
At the 42nd ASEAN Summit, held in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, ASEAN members signed an agreement to push for better regional payment connectivity and the use of local currency transactions (LCT). The move is seen as the bloc’s strategy to transition away from established currencies used for trade, such as the US dollar.
The US dollar has been king for global trade for decades. This is not only because the US is the world’s largest economy, but also because oil and most commodities are priced in US dollars. However, since the Federal Reserve embarked on its aggressive interest rate hike strategy, central banks of developing countries have been forced to raise their own interest rates to stem the sharp depreciation in their currencies.
To be clear, the US dollar is still the dominant currency among global forex reserves, accounting for some 58 percent of the reserves in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Euro is second and accounts for 20 percent of global forex reserves.
Through the local currency transaction initiative, ASEAN hopes to increase trade within the bloc, deepen regional financial integration, strengthen financial resilience, and bolster regional value chains.
Finance Ministers will next develop an ASEAN Local Currency Transaction Framework to implement its LCT plan.
ASEAN wary of the impact of sanctions
ASEAN members are also wary of the role the US dollar plays in sanctions brought on by the US. The US along with the EU froze some US$300 billion of Russia’s foreign reserves and cut its major banks from accessing the SWIFT network in a bid to cripple the Russian economy. As such, these sanctions have forced ASEAN countries to mitigate their risks and engage in diversifying their reserve currencies. Further, they are also wary that the US could use the power of its currency to target them in the future.
China has been getting rid of its US Treasury Bonds and now holds US$870 billion in US debt – the lowest since 2010. Iraq has now allowed trade with China to be settled with the yuan, and China and Saudi Arabia are considering pricing some oil sales in yuan. The central banks of Indonesia and South Korea have agreed to expand the use of each other’s local currency for bilateral transactions, in addition to India and the UAE also finalizing a deal to trade in their currencies.
Prigozhin has published a new video (a reupload of the video which does not require the Telegram app for viewing is available, for example, here). Here’s the translation:
Let’s talk about what’s going on. PMC Wagner has been surrounding Bakhmut for a long them, then began to enter Bakhmut. The whole operation to enter Bakhmut continued since October 8, for seven months. During that period, we have taken the Berkhovka Reservoir, Berkhovka and have been advancing along the Bakhmut–Slavyansk road in the direction of Slavyansk.
Now a reverse process is occuring. After we have transferred the flanks, what happened was not a “tactical retreat”—so comrade Konashenkov, to put it mildly, hasn’t been honest—it was simply a flight of MoD units from the flanks. And so [the Ukraine] reaching the Berkhovka Reservoir, if someone looks at the map—I won’t show my own, because there’s a lot of extra information here—but if you look at what is going on in Berkhovka, it means that the enemy will approach Bakhmut and will be located 500 m from Bakhmut, taking all tactical heights. With the loss of the Berkhovka Reservoir, so to speak, with [the Ukraine] reaching [it], with the loss of these territories that were left—and it’s 5 km² just today—the enemy has completely opened the Chasov Yar–Bakhmut road, which we were blocking, which was known as “the surrounding of Bakhmut”, and the enemy will be able to use that road, that’s the first thing, and the second thing is that it has taken the tactical heights, from which the entire Bakhmut is [visible] at a glance. The next step, when they enter Berkhovka, that will mean the gradual surrounding of Bakhmut—exactly what I have been talking about for a long time.
So the Defense Minister and the Head of the General Staff, through their actions, have managed to first reduce the headcount of PMC Wagner, so that we couldn’t hold the flanks; then they decided that their “brave” servicemen will hold the flanks, but they fled; we are still not supplied with ammo, we are given, at maximum, 10% of what we need, and so we can’t cover the servicemen with fire; they won’t give us arms and armor, hoping that PMC Wagner finally collapses. We continue to storm “Gnezdo” [“the Nest”] in Bakhmut, this night we have taken another building, this morning we have taken several further entrances, we have to take about 20 buildings and Bakhmut will be completely taken—about 20 high-rise buildings, not counting bits and pieces like the individual houses. However! The taking of Bakhmut won’t give Russian Federation anything, because the flanks are crumbling, the front is crumbling. And MoD’s attempt to somehow soften the situation in the information space is leading—and will lead—to a global tragedy for Russia. That’s why the lying must stop immediately! If you have fled, you should build new lines of defense, but what you have prepared for this defense is not what can hold this defense, it’s simply nothing. And so what has been happening lately and what I have been warning about for a long time, it beginning to transpire, in a great tragedy for our country.
(video cut)
And another thing in particular. When we have received the combat order on May 7, as I have already said, there were four points in that combat order. The first point: if PMC Wagner leaves Bakhmut without the sanction of the Head of the General Staff, it will be considered a state treason. The second one: we will be given as much ammo as we request. The third one: we will be given General of the Army Surovikin as a liaison. And the fourth one: the MoD takes all the flanks.
So, regarding the four points. They gave us Surovikin. The flanks were “taken” in such a way that it would have been better if they didn’t attempt to do that. They haven’t given us the ammo. And the last point remains, the one which I mentioned the first, about the “state treason”. Does this rule only extend to PMC Wagner, or [also] to the military command, whose actions led to those flanks being abandoned? Who will be held accountable for state treason? A question, please. For the court, we have a copy of the combat order.
Thank you.