Updated
Russian forces have taken complete control of Artyomovsk-Bakhmut, Donetsk Republic (ex-Ukraine) – Wagner PMC Chief Prigozhin.

Prigozhin asks Zelensky to give Biden kiss on the forehead when he meets him (00:15), as well as to shake hands with top Ukrainian commander Zaluzhny “if he’s in good health” – fueling rumors Zaluzhny’s dead and buried.

Bakhmut results. 

1..destroyed 6.5 thousand foreign mercenaries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
2. Destroyed 10 thousand units of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
3. Taken as trophies 35 thousand units of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
4. Destroyed more than 50 aircraft and helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
5. Killed 57 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
6. 85 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were wounded.
7. Such a large percentage of the dead was due to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were almost surrounded and did not have time to take out the wounded.
8. The losses of PMC Wagner are also large, but several times less.
9. Completely defeated and deprived of combat capability of 10 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
10. 21 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated and withdrawn to the rear for reorganization.
11. All these brigades were preparing for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But instead of an offensive, they were defeated in Bakhmut.
12. These are the results of the “Bakhmut meat grinder” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

These data were calculated by PMC Wagner.

By @Polk105

It seems that Zaluzhny was really killed – the Kiev regime has not been able to find the missing commander for 10 days.

The loss of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can no longer be justified by the “tense situation at the front.”

Recall the chronology of this disappearance. The first rumors about the elimination of Zaluzhny appeared after reports of the destruction of the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Pavlograd, against which the Russian Armed Forces delivered massive strikes for two days in a row – on May 7 and 8.

Indirect confirmation of this theory was Zaluzhny’s refusal to participate in a videoconference with the NATO command on May 10, allegedly due to a “heavy workload.” But before, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief never denied himself the pleasure of “shining his face” at such events.

In Kiev, they understand that the death of a media-hyped military leader can disrupt a long-planned offensive, and they are trying with all their might to fend off rumors that have spread.

First, a series of shots were thrown in, in which the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in uniform and sneakers posed for photographers at a wedding – this, apparently, is his “heavy workload”, which prevented him from speaking at a video conference with NATO.

But almost immediately it became known that the photos were old. Zelensky also denied the deaths of Zaluzhny and Syrsky. He repeatedly stated that he had communicated with them, but did not provide any specifics or evidence.

On May 12, a large interview with Zaluzhny was posted, but, as a rule, such materials are prepared much in advance.

For example, Budanov’s interview with Yahoo News was recorded two weeks before the release.

No more new photos of Zaluzhny have been published since then, and the photographs of the head of the ukrovermacht bathing in the Mediterranean Sea that are now circulating have not yet been accurately verified.

For Kiev, the “disappearance” of Zaluzhny is a problem. Even in the most difficult moments, the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly demonstrated that he was alive and controlled the course of hostilities.

While the public can be reassured by old photos and videos, as well as Zelensky’s “honest word”, but sooner or later even the most zombified Ukrainians will have questions.

A cloud of radioactive dust is now moving over Western Europe.

The British Defense Minister announced the threat of direct war with Russia and China by 2030 – Financial Times.

Speaking to the Financial Times on Friday, the official claimed that the world will be “a more dangerous, unstable place” by the end of the decade and that “defense will be more critical in our lives.” He explained that the world is seeing “the end of the abnormal period [of peace] post-cold war” and that “a conflict is coming with a range of adversaries around the world.”

London believes that the West may face the threat of a direct full-scale war with Russia and China by 2030, so preparing for defense is a primary state task for many Western countries, said UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace.

“By the end of the decade, the world will become a more dangerous and unstable place, and defense will be more important to our lives. I think a conflict is coming with a number of opponents around the world <…> We all need to be ready for this,” he said, justifying the need to increase London’s annual military spending to 2.5% of GDP.

The minister also added that the upcoming “Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian positions will not be another breakthrough that would necessarily lead to the end of the conflict,” but London will be in a state of full readiness to respond to any use of weapons of mass destruction.

by Staff Members via Military Watch Magazine

On May 16 as part of a complex series of strikes on the Ukrainian capital Kiev the Russian Air Force employed the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missile to neutralise a unit from an American Patriot air defence system, destroying its a radar and a control centre and reportedly at least one of its launchers. According to Russian sources, the Ukrainian crew operating the Patriot were aware a strike was incoming, but had only a limited warning time due to the Kinzhal missile’s very high speed – limiting opportunities for the missile system to change position or reload. The Patriot system targeted was one of two delivered, with Germany and the United States having each supplied a single unit. The unit reportedly fired 32 surface to air missiles at the Kinzhal on approach, which at approximately $3 million each amounted to a $96 million barrage to attempt to destroy a missile with an estimated cost of under $2 million. The very high cost and limited number of the Patriot’s interceptors was a key argument for not sending the systems to Ukraine, with their effectiveness also having been brought to question not only due to the system’s highly troubled combat record, but also to the advanced capabilities of new Russian missiles such as the Kinzhal, Iskander and Zicron. These are considered nearly impossible to intercept particularly in their terminal stages. The delivery of Patriots was nevertheless seen as necessary due to the near collapse of Ukrainian air defences, as warnings have been given with growing frequency by both Western and Ukrainian sources that the arsenal of S-300 and BuK missile systems protecting the country has become critically depleted.

Missile Batteries From Patriot Air Defence System

Destruction of the Patriot systems comes less than a month after the first systems were delivered in April, and follows a warning in December from Russian President Vladimir Putin that the destruction of the systems was an absolute certainty should they be deployed in Ukraine. He assured that with Washington “now saying that they can put a Patriot [in Ukraine]. Okay, let them do it. We will crack the Patriot [like a nut] too, and something will need to be installed in its place, new systems need to be developed – this is a complex and lengthy process” – indicating that NATO had no newer generations of long range air defence systems available to replace the Patriot once its vulnerability was demonstrated. “Our adversaries proceed from the idea that this is supposedly a defensive weapon. All right, we’ll keep that in mind. And an antidote can always be found,” Putin added. The United States notably reassured Russia in December that Patriot systems would not be manned by American personnel, which was interpreted by some sources as an effective green light to proceed with strikes. With Ukrainian personnel expected to take until 2024 to learn to operate Patriots, they are thought to have been manned by contractors from NATO member states who are already acquainted with the systems.

Russian MiG-31K Strike Fighter with Kinzhal Ballistic Missile

The Kizhal missile used to neutralise the Patriot battery entered service in the Russian Military in late 2017, and was first employed in the Russian-Ukrainian War on March 18 2022 to strike a large underground warehouse in Western Ukraine housing armaments recently delivered through Poland. The missile has been a weapon of choice for striking high priority targets far behind Ukrainian lines due to its combination of a very long range and a high performance, where surface launched Iskander missiles with some similar capabilities were designed with only a 500km range due to the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty which both Moscow and Washington were parties to until 2019. The Kinzhal has been widely deployed since 2017 in newly created squadrons of MiG-31K and MiG-31I strike fighters, which have consistently been stationed in areas of high tensions with NATO including Syria, Belarus, Kaliningrad and the Arctic. The MiG-31 has emerged as a star performer in the Russian-Ukrainian War not only due to its contributions to strike missions, but also to the performance of MiG-31BM/BSM interceptor variants which a number of Western sources have reported to be a strongly felt presence in the air which has caused serious losses for Ukrainian aviation. The possibility remains that the sole remaining Patriot battery will be a priority target either for MiG-31K/I strike fighters or for other Russian assets.

After, Kiev: the remains of American PAC-3 CRI interceptor missiles from the MIM-104F Patriot PAC-3 air defense system continue to be found.

About the destruction of the Patriot air defense system in Kyiv

Last night, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed at least one launcher of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system in Kyiv. Rybar’s team managed to establish the exact location of the anti-aircraft battery. At least two launchers were located at the Zhuliany airport, where the Kinzhal [‘Dagger’] hit.

Coordinates: 50.404161, 30.443186

Another place where the work of the Ukrainian air defense was noticed was the vicinity of the Kyiv zoo, where the fragments of the fired missiles fell. The complex itself worked in close proximity to the Kyiv Polytechnic University named after Sikorsky.

Coordinates: 50.452699, 30.459805

As for the airfield “Zhulyany”, footage from the surveillance camera got into the Network. In the video, you can clearly see the launches of 32 missiles (a total of 16 for each launcher), as well as the work of barreled anti-aircraft artillery – apparently, the Patriots covered the Gepard ZSU.

After the ammunition load was used up, an explosion was heard: the Russian “Dagger” managed to hit the positional area, despite two “Patriots” and one “Gepard”.

Given the appearance on CNN of information about the damage to the complex – if not destruction, then at least a partial decommissioning of American air defense systems can be considered a fait accompli. There is another interesting detail: the appearance of a persistent rumor that the SAM operators could have deliberately released the entire ammunition load in order to reduce the radius of the explosion. That is, according to this version, they knew about the flying “Dagger” and deliberately used up ammunition in order to reduce the force of the subsequent detonation. Alas, we do not know how it really happened.

But we clearly see that the “Patriot” is not a superweapon, and it can and should be beaten. As well as the Gepard ZSU, which for the second time failed to cope with the task of covering the air defense position area from Russian weapons.

@rybar

by Pepe Escobar
via Strategic-Culture

Remember Putin: “We haven’t even started anything yet.”

“Whispers of an ‘evil power’ were heard in lines at dairy shops, in streetcars, stores, apartments, kitchens, suburban and long-distance trains, at stations large and small, in dachas, and on beaches. Needless to say, truly mature and cultured people did not tell these stories about an evil power’s visit to the capital. In fact they even made fun of them and tried to talk sense into those who told them.”

Mikhail Bulgakov, The Master and Margarita

To quote Dylan, who might have been a Bulgakov epigone: “So let us stop talking falsely now/the hour’s getting late.” By now it’s quite clear the delusion of a “peace” deal in Ukraine is the latest wet dream of the “non-agreement capable” usual suspects, always hooked on lies and plunder while deftly manipulating selected liberals among the Russian elite.

The goal would be to appease Moscow with a few concessions, while crucially keeping Odessa, Nikolaev and Dnipro, and safeguarding what would be NATO’s access to the Black Sea.

All that while investing in rabid, resentful Poland to become an armed to the teeth EU military militia.

So any “negotiations” towards “peace” in fact mask a drive to postpone – just for a little while – the original masterplan: dismembering and destroying Russia.

There are very serious discussions in Moscow, even at the highest levels, on how the elite is really positioned. Rougly three groups can be identified: the Victory party; the “Peace” party – which Victory would describe as surrenders; and the Neutral/Undecided.

Victory certainly includes crucial actors such as Dmitry Medvedev; Rosneft’s Igor Sechin; Foreign Minister Lavrov; Nikolai Patrushev; head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Aleksandr Bastrykin; and – even under fire – certainly Defense Minister Shoigu.

“Peace” would include, among others, the head of Telegram, Pavel Durov; billionaire entrepreneur Andrey Melnichenko; metal/mining czar Alisher Usmanov (born in Uzbekistan); and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Neutral/Undecided would include Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin; mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin; Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, Anton Vaino; First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential administration and media czar, Alexey Gromov; Sberbank’s CEO Herman Gref; Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller; and – special bone of contention – perhaps FSB supremo Alexander Bortnikov.

It’s fair to argue the third group represents the elite majority. This means they heavily influence the entire course of the Special Military Operation (SMO), which by now has metastasized into an Anti-Terror Operation (ATO).

The “counter-offensive” fog of war

These different Russian views at the very top predictably elicit frantic speculation among US and NATO Think Tankland. Hostages of their own excitement, they even forget what anyone with an IQ over room temperature is aware of: Kiev – stuffed with $30 billion in NATO weaponry – may come up with less than zero effects out of its much lauded “counter-offensive”. Russian forces are more than prepared, and Ukraine lacks the surprise element.

Collective West hacks, after feverish head scratching, finally discovered that Kiev needs to go for a “combined arms operation” to get something out of its new deluge of NATO toys.

John Cleese has noted how the coronation of Charles The Tampax King looked like a Monty Python sketch. Now try this one as a sequel: the Hegemon cannot even pay its trillions in debt while Kiev P.R. goons complain that the $30 billion they got is peanuts.

On the Russian front, the indispensable Andrei Martyanov – a maelstrom of wit – has observed how most alarmed Russian military correspondents simply have no idea “what type and volume of combat information is pouring to the command posts in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don or staffs of frontline formations.”

He stresses that “no serious operational level officer” will even talk to these guys, joyfully described as “voenkurva” (roughly, “military bitches”), and simply will not “divulge any kind of operational data which is highly classified.”

So, as it stands, all the sound and fury about the “counter-offensive” is shrouded by a thick fog of war.

And that only serves to add more fuel to the fire of US Think Tankland wishful thinking. The new dominant narrative in the Beltway is that the leadership in Moscow is “fragmented and unpredictable”. And that may be leading to “a conventional defeat of a major nuclear power” whose “command-and-control system broke down.”

Yes: they actually believe in their own silly (copyright John Cleese) propaganda. They are the American equivalent of the Ministry of Silly Walks. Incapable of analyzing why and how the Russian elite holds different views on the method and the extent of the SMO/ATO, the best they can come up with is “protecting Ukraine is a strategic necessity, since the Russian threat increases if Moscow wins in Ukraine.”

What’s behind Prighozin’s sound and fury

Trademark American arrogance/ignorance does not erase the fact there seems to be a serious power struggle among the siloviki. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a siloviki, in fact denounced Shoigu and Gerasimov as incompetent, implying they only keep their posts out of loyalty to President Putin.

This is as serious as it gets. Because it’s linked to a key question posed across several educated silos in Moscow: if Russia is widely known to be the strongest military power in the world with the most advanced defensive and offensive missiles, how come they have not wrapped up the whole deal in the Ukrainian battlefield?

A plausible answer is that only 200,000 members of the Russian army are currently fighting, and about 400,000 to 600,000 are waiting in reserve for the Ukraine attack. While they wait they are in constant training; so waiting works to Russia’s advantage.

Once the famous “counter-offensive” peters out, Ukraine will be hit with massive force. There will be no negotiated settlement. Only unconditional surrender.

What goin’ on right now – the Prigozhin drama – is subordinated to this logic, running in parallel to a quite sophisticated media operation.

Yes, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) made several serious mistakes, as well as other Russian institutions, since the start of the SMO. To criticize them in public, constructively, is a salutary exercise.

Prighozin’s tactics are a gem; he manipulates a degree of public outrage/indignation to put pressure on the MoD bureaucracy by essentially telling the truth. He could even go as far as naming names: officers who are abandoning different sectors of the frontlines. In contrast, his Wagner “musicians” are pictured as true heroes.

Whether Prigozhin’s sound and fury will be enough to fine tune the MoD’s entrenched bureaucracy is an open question. Still, media coverage of the whole drama is essential; now that these problems are in the public domain, people will expect the MoD to act.

And by the way, this is the essential fact: Prighozin has been allowed (italics mine) to go as far as he wants by the Higher Power (the St. Petersburg connection). Otherwise he would be in a revamped-gulag by now.

So the next few weeks are absolutely crucial. Putin and the Security Council certainly know what everyone else doesn’t – including Prighozin. The key take away is that the ground will start to be laid for US/NATO to eventually turn rump Ukraine, the Baltic lap dogs, rabid Poland and a few other extras into a sort of Fortress Eastern Europe engaged in a war of attrition against Russia with the potential to last decades.

That may be the ultimate argument for Russia to finally go for the jugular, as soon as possible. Otherwise the future will be bleak. Well, not so bleak. Remember Putin: “We haven’t even started anything yet.”

by Mike Ryan

Asking the question, “Why is Vladimir Putin backing Russian General Valery Gerasimov after four key setbacks during the war in Ukraine?” Major General Mick Ryan (Australia), expert analyst at the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, argues as follows:

(a) In any war, the general staff of the enemy and his leadership is the most desirable target. The elimination of the head of the General Staff leads to random planning and other unpleasant things. This is very effective, “especially given that modern military forces rely on communications and decision support tools based on AI.” However, a particular Russian commander does not seem to be the target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “This particular senior officer has been ineffective since the start of the war, so much so that it sometimes looks like he’s working for the other side.”

(b) We are talking about General Valery Gerasimov, “a four-time loser.” He made a fatal mistake when planning the actions of the RF Armed Forces at the first stage of the war, he had no alternative plans. He completely failed the start of mobilization, when it became clear that without it there was no way – he did not even foresee such a possibility – and moreover, apparently, he simply did not know about the old Soviet system of mobilization. He (even before the war), together with Sergei Shoigu, was responsible for the modernization program of the Russian Federation, and completely failed it. And finally, it was he who, leading the “January offensive”, achieved nothing.

(c) Given this record of poor performance, one might have thought that Gerasimov’s days might be numbered. But no. Of course, he is incompetent, but on the other hand “he is very well versed in palace politics and is very loyal to Putin.” The Kremlin values loyalty above competence. And besides, losers, “as Gerasimov may find out in the future, make excellent scapegoats.”

(d) The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected in the near future. In a situation where “Gerasimov’s sluggish and ineffective actions this year have consumed a large amount of ammunition, equipment and manpower. This will limit the ability of Gerasimov to effectively respond to Ukrainian offensives. Regardless of the number of obstacles that his troops erect for defense, the Russians will have to defend huge front line. This is a task that will challenge the best of armies, and the Russians can hardly be called such.”

Summary. “There is an old saying: ‘When your enemy is wrong, don’t stand in his way.’ In this war so far, Gerasimov has shown great talent for strategic mistakes. Therefore, the Ukrainians will not only avoid targeting Gerasimov, but they will probably do everything possible for Gerasimov to stay in power because, given his track record and the upcoming Ukrainian offensives, Gerasimov is likely to go from a four-time loser to a five-time loser in the coming months.”

Prigozhin has published a new video (a reupload of the video which does not require the Telegram app for viewing is available, for example, here). Here’s the translation:

Let’s talk about what’s going on. PMC Wagner has been surrounding Bakhmut for a long them, then began to enter Bakhmut. The whole operation to enter Bakhmut continued since October 8, for seven months. During that period, we have taken the Berkhovka Reservoir, Berkhovka and have been advancing along the Bakhmut–Slavyansk road in the direction of Slavyansk.

Now a reverse process is occuring. After we have transferred the flanks, what happened was not a “tactical retreat”—so comrade Konashenkov, to put it mildly, hasn’t been honest—it was simply a flight of MoD units from the flanks. And so [the Ukraine] reaching the Berkhovka Reservoir, if someone looks at the map—I won’t show my own, because there’s a lot of extra information here—but if you look at what is going on in Berkhovka, it means that the enemy will approach Bakhmut and will be located 500 m from Bakhmut, taking all tactical heights. With the loss of the Berkhovka Reservoir, so to speak, with [the Ukraine] reaching [it], with the loss of these territories that were left—and it’s 5 km² just today—the enemy has completely opened the Chasov Yar–Bakhmut road, which we were blocking, which was known as “the surrounding of Bakhmut”, and the enemy will be able to use that road, that’s the first thing, and the second thing is that it has taken the tactical heights, from which the entire Bakhmut is [visible] at a glance. The next step, when they enter Berkhovka, that will mean the gradual surrounding of Bakhmut—exactly what I have been talking about for a long time.

So the Defense Minister and the Head of the General Staff, through their actions, have managed to first reduce the headcount of PMC Wagner, so that we couldn’t hold the flanks; then they decided that their “brave” servicemen will hold the flanks, but they fled; we are still not supplied with ammo, we are given, at maximum, 10% of what we need, and so we can’t cover the servicemen with fire; they won’t give us arms and armor, hoping that PMC Wagner finally collapses. We continue to storm “Gnezdo” [“the Nest”] in Bakhmut, this night we have taken another building, this morning we have taken several further entrances, we have to take about 20 buildings and Bakhmut will be completely taken—about 20 high-rise buildings, not counting bits and pieces like the individual houses. However! The taking of Bakhmut won’t give Russian Federation anything, because the flanks are crumbling, the front is crumbling. And MoD’s attempt to somehow soften the situation in the information space is leading—and will lead—to a global tragedy for Russia. That’s why the lying must stop immediately! If you have fled, you should build new lines of defense, but what you have prepared for this defense is not what can hold this defense, it’s simply nothing. And so what has been happening lately and what I have been warning about for a long time, it beginning to transpire, in a great tragedy for our country.

(video cut)

And another thing in particular. When we have received the combat order on May 7, as I have already said, there were four points in that combat order. The first point: if PMC Wagner leaves Bakhmut without the sanction of the Head of the General Staff, it will be considered a state treason. The second one: we will be given as much ammo as we request. The third one: we will be given General of the Army Surovikin as a liaison. And the fourth one: the MoD takes all the flanks.

So, regarding the four points. They gave us Surovikin. The flanks were “taken” in such a way that it would have been better if they didn’t attempt to do that. They haven’t given us the ammo. And the last point remains, the one which I mentioned the first, about the “state treason”. Does this rule only extend to PMC Wagner, or [also] to the military command, whose actions led to those flanks being abandoned? Who will be held accountable for state treason? A question, please. For the court, we have a copy of the combat order.

Thank you.