Ukraine and the Ukrainian leadership have made a very big mistake in moving the war to the cities.

This was stated by retired Greek Air Force Major General Pavlos Christou.

“Wars should only be fought between armies in an open space. Ukraine with its military dogma has moved the war into the cities without withdrawing the inhabitants, so there are heavy casualties on both sides. Civilians are being killed. It is a war crime when you bomb and fight and keep the population in the middle of the fighting, when you set up military bases in the city, in the hospitals. This is forbidden by international laws of warfare. The president of Ukraine is committing a crime against the people of Ukraine with thousands of civilian casualties. Yet the international community did not rise up when Ukrainian troops bombed cities for eight years. Did it not know what was going on? No one is talking about those bombings.”

The Washington Post releases new documents from US intelligence leaks. They concern the conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense, which escalated again.

The leaks date back to February when Wagner’s handler had already started blaming the military for a shortage of ammunition for his PMC. Data was obtained through wiretapping and message interception.

The documents show that “the Russian military leadership was frustrated by Prigozhin’s harsh public attacks and discussed how to suppress his criticism.”

Also, officials of the Russian Defense Ministry “were not sure that it was possible to successfully wage an information war against Prigozhin if the government did not prohibit him from making public statements.”

CIA military sources in Russia “couldn’t say unequivocally” whether Wagner received ammunition because it was not distributed directly from the ministry but through a task force in Bakhmut. At the same time, the sources admitted that “Prigozhin’s statements may be true.”

One of the documents for February 12 stated that the head of the General Staff Gerasimov “ordered to stop the supply of ammunition, as well as military transport flights intended for the transport of ammunition” to the Rostov headquarters of the PMC (we note that on February 23, Prigozhin announced that the problem had been resolved and the shipment of shells for Wagner resumed).

After Prigozhin’s public claims, he was summoned to a meeting with Putin and Shoigu on February 22. The day before, the curator of the PMC asked the President of Russia to allow him to continue recruiting from prisons, to train the mobilized and recruit foreigners, in particular, Afghans, into Wagner.

But Putin essentially refused. “The document, citing FSB interceptions, says that Putin ordered Prigozhin to resolve these issues with the Ministry of Defense taking the side of his generals and not Chief Wagner,” the publication reports.

*

Meanwhile, after Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw Wagner units from Bakhmut, additional Wagner units were transferred to Bakhmut and even more fierce fighting began.
The UAF, in desperation, trying to stop Wagner, transfers reinforcements to Bakhmut, but most of them are destroyed by artillery on the way, because the ways of the APU approach to Bakhmut are under fire.
Bakhmut is now turning into the grave of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fights are non-stop. The telegram audience is fascinated by the fire-bombed quarters of the tiny patch of Bakhmut, where the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still hiding, who are dying en masse at the whim of the war criminal Zelensky, who does not allow them to leave Bakhmut and throws thousands more lives of unfortunate Ukrainians into the furnace of Bakhmut.

There are some very significant developments within the Russian Army taking place these days. And that is: a mutiny within the volunteer army, which is Wagner, against the incompetent, corrupt 5th column represented by the big wigs Defense Minister Shoigu and Army Chief of Staff Gherasimov.

On the public channels, the complaint is about ammunition or, rather the lack of it, that was/is allocated to the Wagner group. But it might be rather about the direction of the overall strategy of Russia and a possible change of guard at the top.

Here is Prigozhin giving the ultimatum, not to  the Ukrainian army but to the Russian army. “We will leave the theater of operation in Bakhmut on May 10.” : https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/60473.

And here is the same Prigozhin explaining why: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/60594 

To speak out against Wagner today is political suicide. Because of the popularity of Wagner and because of the irritation of society against the military and political bureaucracy, because of the mistakes and inactivity of the NWO. Because, as it seems to society, the bureaucracy is afraid to defeat the West in Ukraine, afraid to fight for real.
For example, the very popular TG channel “Ridovka explains” today called Prigozhin’s actions blackmail, so after that he was told such a thing that after half an hour “Ridovka explains” apologized.
Many are afraid to criticize the Ministry of Defense. But no one has yet dared to seriously criticize Wagner. The Ministry of Defense is also silent.It thinks. (Markov)

We publish a request from the editors of RuNews24 and the answer:

Dear Yevgeny Viktorovich, the controversy around Bakhmut does not subside in the media. The United States demands that the President of Ukraine leave the city, while Volodymyr Zelensky himself, despite heavy losses, says that Bakhmut must be kept. In addition, in his interview with Al Arabiya TV channel, Zelensky said that now all the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being thrown into preparations for a large-scale counteroffensive by Ukraine. Tell us, please, how do you see the near future at the front?

We publish a comment by Evgeny Prigozhin:

Let’s break this question down into its components. The first is Bakhmut, the Bakhmut meat grinder. Our task is to grind the Ukrainian army, not to give them the opportunity to gather in a counteroffensive. We are doing this more than successfully, and I can rate the actions of my guys “five points”.

And for myself “three with a minus”, because it was necessary to grind more so that not a single living Ukrainian soldier was left.

But as soon as we finish taking Bakhmut, as soon as we drive the last soldier out of it or destroy them on the territory of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin that day. I figuratively say “on this day”, it can be plus a few days, plus a week. But very close, because the Ukrainians will put up a huge number of troops.

Regarding our offensive after the capture of Bakhmut, which was announced a month ago by the Ministry of Defense, I can say that today we can do it, and today no one is preventing us from entering the operational space, because the situation around Bakhmut within a radius of 10 kilometers will not change after taking it. It will be exactly the same. Those groups of Ukrainian troops that are now inside Bakhmut and are being attacked by us occupy an area of actually two kilometers.

Therefore, they in no way interfere with anyone around now, and the operational space right up to Warsaw is already completely open, if we assume that it will be after the capture of Bakhmut. After we take Bakhmut, of course, the Ukrainian army will take advantage of the fact that the Wagner PMC is drawn into the city, will cut us from both sides from the flanks. And so I squeal about the flanks. Further, as soon as Bakhmut is taken, Zelensky will need the greatest victory. And for this he will launch the very counteroffensive.

Why hasn’t it started yet? The first is because it rains, and absolutely everything gets stuck in the fields, you can only use roads exclusively. Even “pickup trucks” will stick, not to mention tanks.

The second factor is May 9th. Zelensky’s task is to crap the holiday for us, because we have a mental dependence on holidays. We need to take Palmyra on March 8, another city on February 23. And all events should be done by May 9, because we ourselves cannot do anything, and we are constantly trying to cling to the memory of our ancestors, and this has been the case for many decades. Therefore, May 9 is also a serious date for Zelensky. Or he will put one more reference in the list of intelligence information.

Every time he talks about the need to advance, we take certain steps and tighten our muscles as much as we can. He fixes it and clearly understands our defense. I have already said that this is the principle of a boy who shouted “Help!” all the time in the water.

So the vectors converge: the capture of Bakhmut, the counteroffensive, the supply of foreign equipment, our complete carelessness – everything converges into one point. Zelensky needs to strike without a miss, and no matter how he is criticized, he does it in a highly professional manner. And we need to do the same. And while we go around measuring our penises, we chew snot and celebrate holidays.

Komsomolskaya Pravda has a big article on the ‘Dagger’ attack in March on a NATO bunker in Lvov, where 200 NATO officers got killed. There are no videos or photos added.
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27490.5/4748875/

“The catastrophe of NATO forces in Ukraine”: Russia pushed back the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with one blow of the “Dagger” on a secret bunker. Russian hypersonic missiles “Dagger” destroyed a secret bunker with 200 officers of NATO and the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The military departments of the USA, Great Britain, Poland and some other NATO countries prefer not to stutter even a word about what happened in early March near Lvov. And when corrosive journalists, who got wind of the terrible state of emergency , ask generals and politicians questions about it, they receive either “know comments” or crafty references to “ignorance” about what happened in response. But nevertheless, the “awl from the bag” still begins to crawl out. Information is increasingly leaking into the Western and Ukrainian press, as well as into social networks from various sources, which are very well matched in detail and allow us to present a reliable scenario for an extremely painful drama (even tragedy) for NATO and its allies.

NATO officers’ bunker

And the scenario looks like this. Near Lviv, at a depth of a hundred meters, there was a reserve command post of the former Carpathian military district. This secret facility, well protected and equipped with modern communication systems, was chosen by NATO generals and colonels when, with the outbreak of hostilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass (2014), they decided to move to the Ukrainian rear, where it was more convenient to advise the Kiev allies and develop plans of operations together with them. The secret underground point also instilled a sense of security in the “consultants” even after Moscow, with the start of its special military operation, promised to strike at decision-making points. In fact, it was a joint command and control headquarters, consisting of NATO representatives, as well as officers of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of its armed forces. In addition, this headquarters was very tightly covered by air defense systems, which further added to its “inhabitants” confidence in their safety.

Probably for this reason, the sense of vigilance was also lost – sometimes dozens of cars gathered at the entrance to the headquarters even in broad daylight, which did not go unnoticed by our space, aviation and undercover intelligence. And by the beginning of March, the Russian General Staff already knew that both in the “dungeon” and in Kyiv, the development of an offensive plan for the Armed Forces of Ukraine was in full swing. It only remained to determine the most advantageous moment to strike at the lair of the NATO “branch” in the Lviv region and carefully work out the flight tasks of our hypersonic “Daggers”. And, of course, to thoroughly (up to a minute) calculate the take-off time of the Kinzhal carriers (MiG-31 fighters), the launch line of these missiles (without entering the enemy’s air defense zone) and the “instant” of hitting the target.

“Daggers” completed the task

Why were the “Daggers” chosen? Yes, because such a bunker is invulnerable to conventional missiles. And there was no point in sending bombers for strikes even with 1.5-ton or five-ton bombs: the Ukrainians could shoot down the planes, and hitting the “peg” would hardly have happened. And launched even from a distance of 2 thousand kilometers, the “Dagger” (warhead – 500 kg!) Goes to the target at a crazy speed (10 or even 15 times faster than sound!) – while there are no such air defense systems in the world that could intercept it . And also the “Dagger” is a high-precision, sniper weapon – it has a deviation from the center of the target – only 1 meter! He jumped into the “well” of the entrance group for many tens of meters, and after him another … And this, consider, a ton of explosives!

“The catastrophe of NATO forces in Ukraine”

Of the “teachers and students” who were in the dungeon, no one survived . And there were more than 200 of them. Including, say some “informed” Western journalists, several American generals and senior officers. And also – British, Polish, Ukrainian.

And here is the very “awl from the bag”, which I already mentioned. The Greek portal Pronews , which is close to the Ministry of Defense of its country , claimed that “dozens of foreign officers were killed when the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles hit the joint Ukrainian-NATO command and communications center. This was “a disaster for NATO forces in Ukraine.”

And that is not all. Some Kiev sites have also blabbed: after the emergency, representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were called to the carpet at the US Embassy , ​​where they were reprimanded “for the poor security of the control center”, and at the same time handed over a list of the dead senior and senior American officers and ordered “to get them at least from underground.” The corpses of those who died from explosions and suffocated in a frenzy are still being dug up …

So far, according to the “leaks” in Ukrainian social networks, it can be judged that only 40 bodies have been recovered from under the ruins of the destroyed center. The rest of the dead are still buried under the rubble.

Officially

And here it is impossible not to recall that on March 9, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a modest message on its official Telegram channel stating that in response to the terrorist actions organized by the Kiev regime in the Bryansk region on March 2, the Russian army launched a massive “retaliation strike.” The ministry emphasized that the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system was used.

By the way, this “retribution strike”, according to the director of the Institute for the Study of National Crises Nikolai Sorokin , had other consequences. He believes that the destruction of the “think tank” of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive could well slow it down. This version has its own reason. The offensive is still delayed. Maybe, according to ritual custom, they wait 40 days from the date of death? …

But why are the capitals of the NATO countries keeping quiet about the terrible state of emergency? Most likely because they are “ashamed” to admit a biting slap from Moscow . Or because it could be an open recognition of the active participation of NATO troops in the hostilities against Russia.

Neofeudalfuture says:

Prigozhin is now saying that ending the war here counts as a victory -.

As strange as it sounded earlier – when China said there’d be peace by summer – I was skeptical.

But the leaks and direct allegations of corruption show that strong factions in the US want to get back to normal.

Prigozhin‘s statement shows strong factions in Russia’s deep state want the same thing.

China certainly does, it hates all this self-determination stuff as much as ukraine does (or did?)

It’s looking like the war will grind to a halt. Without a treaty though, for territory changes, there will be another one, but maybe not for a while.

Maybe everyone will just declare themselves winners? Unless Ukraine has a couple secret NATO divisions in their back pocket, their 12 brigades are just enough to make a mess, but it won’t cut the land bridge.

Russians aren’t necessarily the brightest but they can see that if they retreat again there might be a revolution. Even if their deep state wants to betray Russia they can’t enjoy the fruits of it if they’re getting executed by peasants.

Here is what Prigozhin said about the battle for Artemovsk. There are a lot of interesting things in it.

1. The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Chasiv Yar: settlements included in the so-called “Donbass ring” and forming a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a fleeting victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbass.

2. The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces. About 200 000 already sufficiently trained fighters, who have passed two or three months of training and coordination, are ready to perform combat tasks. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200 000 to go on the offensive in various directions. The troops ready for a counteroffensive are in the areas of concentration – they have enough of everything. In those tank wedges, which they try to hammer into the defense of the Wagner PMCs by the dozens every day, the AFU loses from 30 to 50 pieces of equipment daily, and they do not experience problems with it. And they have unlimited people, as they say at the front.

3. Every strike on Bakhmut, every captured soldier, every hundred killed hits Zelensky and the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine much harder than the advantages they get from holding the remnants of this city.

At the same time, the long battle for Bakhmut is extremely beneficial to the Russian troops, because they already squeezed a large chunk of the territory out of Ukraine in 2022. If the special operation remains within these borders, plus or minus a couple of tens of kilometers, then this will solve many of its tasks. Bakhmut makes it possible for the Russian army to accumulate forces, occupy advantageous defense lines, deal with internal problems, prepare mobilized and fully armed to meet any number of counter-attacking AFU soldiers. Bakhmut is extremely profitable for us, we grind the Ukrainian army there and restrain their maneuvers.

1. The collapse of Russia by military means cannot happen. Forests, swamps, vast territories, climatic specifics reliably protect the territory of the country, making it a huge fortified area. Always in history, the enemy who reached Moscow, as a result, shamefully fled, turning the “victory road” into the “road of death” on the way back. Why do the Anglo-Saxons restrain Zelensky by arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to break the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US does not need a quick war. They need a war that will lead to the re-persuasion of the “deep state” and its victory.

2. Ukrainians are ready to attack. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for the healing of Russia in order for it to come together and become the Strongest State is the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which no handouts and negotiations will be impossible. And either the AFU will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, accumulate muscles and tear up rivals again in a fair fight. Therefore, I believe that the option of contractual arrangements is impossible for the future of Russia.

And a few direct quotes:

“Why do the Anglo-Saxons restrain Zelensky, arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to hit the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US doesn’t need a quick war. They need a war that will convince the ‘deep state’ and lead to its victory.

The ‘deep State’ is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing authorities, some for those who have been on the run for a long time, but, thanks to their connections, they remain in their places after the elder one has fled. A typical example of the “deep state” is the opposition of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich, and so on. Dvorkovich, whom I have mentioned many times, who fled abroad, left behind a whole tail of scum who were under him and above him, and who are elements of this ‘deep state’. The ‘deep State’ endlessly leaks information and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for the sake of its own interests. It is easy to find an approach to the deep state, because it is a sponge inside the country, which, on the one hand, is red, on the other — black, on the third — white, and on the fourth — green. And from each side, having a connection to a part of the “deep state”, you can get to its center. The Russian deep state is currently experiencing a serious crisis.

Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are now in doubt or categorically against what is happening. Representatives of the deep state urgently want to return to their normal life, old habits and comfort. The ‘Deep State’ is tricky and quirky, the conversation of Joseph Prigozhin is a vivid example of this. They are ready to mimic anyone. This is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon.

At meetings, they are silent, express their doubts. And when making decisions based on bureaucratic procedures, certain actions aimed at winning this war are hindered. Since the bureaucracy in Russia today is at an exorbitant level, it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top management aimed at winning within the framework of the ‘legitimate bureaucracy’. These are the internal enemies. In the theory of Alexander Beglov, this is called a ‘bureaucratic sieve’ – a sieve that you can get into, but it is impossible to get out of there.”

Makarov says:

What is the leadership of Russia doing and why is there no offensive of the Russian army? Russia is now building a mass army for mass warfare. Prior to the SVO, Putin recreated two types of modern army. 1. Fully modern modernized strategic forces for nuclear confrontation.
2. Troops for wars in the style of a special operation. They showed themselves superbly in the Crimea and Syria.
3. But it turned out that in Ukraine the war is going on in the form of a mass war, like in the Second World War. Russia did not have such an army.
4. Yes, and no one had, except for the artificially over-militarized Ukraine. Those due to the constant civil war with the Donbass created such a massive army.
5. In 2022, they wanted to carry out the NWO as a special operation. It didn’t work out.
6. Now Putin and the Ministry of Defense are building such a massive army that Russia did not have in 2022.
7. It requires significantly more military. They are now being recruited both under contract and mobilization. And it requires massive deliveries of weapons and equipment. For this, the military-industrial complex of Russia is now being launched.
8. The timing of the implementation of the construction of this army of the third type? And the timing plans and their implementation is a strict military secret. But the building machine of this third army is running at full speed.

Also, Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia needs all of Ukraine. Otherwise, the rest of Ukraine will rot endlessly. Well, everyone knows this, even the unfortunate inhabitants of Ukraine. But Medvedev’s announcement means Russia has no plans to stop at the Dnieper.

by Peter Carroll via DC Weekly

Insiders at the United States Department of Defense have told DCW staff they are worried about Russian Paramilitary Contractor (PMC) “Wagner.” An unnamed official says Wagner is the most Highly Organized and combat-ready private military company in the world, surpassing even that of American PMC Blackwater (also known as Academi), the British PMC Aegis Defense Service, the French PMC Salamandre.

According to the source, there is good reason for such worry; Various independent international institutions and analytical groups have recognized that the PMC Wagner as being the most effective Russian military unit, with the Military Company simultaneously performing combat missions on three continents – in Africa, Asia and Europe. This is absolutely unprecedented both in terms of geographical coverage and quality as well as quantity of missions assigned to the PMCs. One of the factors behind the success of the PMC Wagner is their ability to quickly mobilize and deploy forces anywhere in the world, responding to the changing situation on the spot. In addition, the soldiers of the armed forces are highly skilled and specialized. This allows Wagner to effectively carry out various types of tasks.

Compared with the aforementioned private military companies, (Blackwater, Aegis Defense Service and Salamandre), the operations and functions of the PMC Wagner are much more extensive and complex. Russian private fighters are not only helping leaders and governments of foreign countries in need of security. The highest level of training and equipment allows Wagner to provide security services at a level previously unattainable for private military units.

As the Russian war in Ukraine has shown, PMC Wagner is able to act in the interests of their country and maintain a high level of combat effectiveness despite obvious difficulties. Well-coordinated cooperative work of the headquarters allows their soldiers to perform the tasks set by Russia without the help or support of other units. One DOD official who acts as a liaison for American PMCs to whom we spoke, involved in these types of operations in Afghanistan said, “It’s absolutely mind boggling at their effectiveness. If we had employed similar strategies in Afghanistan, we wouldn’t have created the mess we left behind in the middle east.”

Asked why he thought they were so effective, he stated, “Well-coordinated work of all parts of the Wagner organization proves their effectiveness time after time. This factor makes it possible for Wagner soldiers to storm fortified objects without civilian casualties. In combat zones, PMC members carry out security and personnel protection tasks, as well as supporting a wide range of humanitarian operations, escorting convoys and guarding military objects.”

Obviously, with the significant volume of military missions and their geographic dispersion, a high level of organization of logistics chains and military-tactical communications are required. This is necessary to ensure the efficiency and safety of operations and includes all processes and operations related to the transportation and delivery of military vehicles, equipment, personnel, as well as various resources necessary for the successful achievement of the assigned goals. Logistics also takes into account all the conditions and specifics of a particular mission, such as the geographic, climatic and cultural aspects of the deployment location. Even the military units of the best world armies do not always manage to build a system of communications in such a way as to perform a range of combat tasks. Given the complexity and ramification of the goals of the PMC Wagner, its management is perfectly performing the assigned tasks.

According to many expert estimates, the fighters of the Wagner perform a number of tasks of increased complexity and risk. It’s not only a traditional for all PMCs missions such as protecting diplomatic missions, corteges, industrial and technological facilities such as factories, deposits of natural resources and laboratories. It is mainly the most difficult by its implementation combat operations: ground attacks, control of artillery, air weapons and air defense systems usage. Fighters of the PMC Wagner perform the tasks of intelligence, information gathering and data analysis, which later used to make strategic decisions during the missions.

The Private Military Company Wagner is one of the most discussed organizations in today’s world politics. Their effectiveness is widely recognized and beyond any doubt. The organization’s contribution to ensuring national security and protection of national interests has been the object of scrutiny of dozens of military experts around the world. War analysts are already trying to figure out the causes and factors of success of the Wagner PMCs for a long time. It should be clear that neither in today’s world nor ever before there was a structure similar to Wagner. The unique experience of Wagner will be studied by military analysts and international institutions in the field of security for years to come.

by ‘Military Chronicle’

On Friday, photos appeared of a document allegedly containing details on a planned imminent Ukrainian offensive on territories controlled by Russia. The ‘leak’ coincided with suggestions that the NATO Defender 2023 exercises – planned for the end of this month – could be a cover for an operation to supply and support Ukrainian units. However, upon closer examination, doubts arise concerning the document’s authenticity.

When did it appear?

The supposed secret plans to support an offensive by Kiev’s forces hit the internet the day before Anthony Blinken made a statement on the subject. The US Secretary of State said the operation will begin “within a few weeks.”

What information does it contain?

There hasn’t been a leak of this nature since Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine began, over 13 months ago. It is noteworthy that the published plans contain not only a schedule for supplying Ukrainian units with NATO weapons and ammunition, but also information about the structure of the brigades and battalions allegedly preparing for the offensive.

The document, dated March 1, says Kiev’s brigades need 253 tanks, more than 380 infantry fighting vehicles and APCs, 480 vehicles, 147 artillery pieces, and 571 HMMWV armored vehicles to carry out the offensive.

Which information is most suspect?

The probable locations of Russian units, indicated on the combat map in red, appear to have been collected from open sources. Several pro-Kiev resources that track military operations contain almost identical information.

Also, the ratios of killed and wounded for the Ukrainian and Russian Armed Forces which initially appeared in these ‘secret plans’ have since been changed. When first posted, the losses for the Ukrainian side were underestimated at about 16,500 –17,000 people. Then (probably to be more realistic), they increased almost fivefold, up to 65,000 – 75,000. At the same time, the numbers given for Russia’s purported losses of vehicles and equipment coincide with data published by Kiev’s Ministry of Defense.

What else is wrong with the published AFU offensive plans?

The blatant falsification of data on the readiness of Ukrainian military formations catches the eye. The document states that, of the nine supposedly to be trained up to US and NATO standards by March 31 and April 30, five of Kiev’s brigades have had zero training: these are the 82nd Airborne, the 32nd, 117th, and 118th Territorial Defense, as well as the 21st separate mechanized.

Even if only two or three companies in these brigades were trained, and self-preparation wasn’t completed, their level of training couldn’t be zero. At the same time, the highest percentage of readiness was recorded only in the 47th mechanized(40%) and the 46th airborne assault (60%).

What’s the upshot?

The plan also gives perplexing figures for military equipment.

For example, out of 109 M2 Bradley BMPs sent to armed forces, for some reason only 99 are to participate in the offensive. Moreover, the vehicles are not distributed among the brigades and only assigned to one formation – Kiev’s 47th mechanized brigade, which doesn’t have heavy tanks.

Rather than Soviet T-72s or T-64BVs, this grouping has only Slovak T-55Ss with 105mm guns, which are difficult to use in a large-scale offensive.

The small, but important, errors and inaccuracies in the calculations of equipment, the adjusted accounting of losses, as well as the presence of units with ‘zero’ readiness, indicate that this document, which was issued as a ‘secret plan,’ was probably prepared and distributed not by the military but by a group of civilians, probably pro-Kiev analysts.

The purpose of this planted misinformation may be to underreport the actual number of combat-ready Ukrainian units to be deployed for the offensive or to distract attention from other events related to the real operation.

Expert opinion. Director of the Institute for Political Studies Sergey Markov, author of the Markov Logic telegram channel, on the reasons for the lack of a Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Information resources write about Bakhmut, but in Bakhmut, according to Yevgeny Prigozhin, practically only the Wagner PMC is fighting. And where is the huge Russian army? This is a grouping of up to half a million people, taking into account the 300,000 previously mobilized. Where is she? Is it broken into platoons and is fighting local battles along the entire vast section of the 1,000-kilometer front?
No, it is believed that this army, including 300 thousand mobilized, was created in order to attack, to conduct a large strategic offensive in Ukraine. But this offensive was expected in December, January, February. Winter passed, but the Russian big offensive never happened. Why?
There are several versions, explanations of this main riddle. The first version is the weather. The thaw continued throughout the winter, there was no solid ground, so the possibilities of an offensive were noticeably hampered by weather conditions. Now everyone will be waiting for the start of summer weather and solid ground?
The second version is the unpreparedness of the Russian army. This has its own logic, because one of the main reasons for the failure of the Russian army was the lag of our army behind the Ukrainian one in the number of soldiers, weapons, and shells. It is logical that, having failed because of this shortcoming, the leadership of the Russian army wants to accumulate huge reserves. However, apparently, the Russian economy was unable to fulfill these orders of the Russian army, failed to arm 300,000 people for a major offensive operation.
The third reason is that attempts are being made to militarily secure the conditions for an offensive. Air support is very important for the offensive. So far, however, Russian aviation has no dominance. The Ukrainian air defense system does not allow aviation to turn around, probing and preparations are underway to suppress the Ukrainian air defense system. It takes a long time.
The fourth possible reason is some strategic dangers. At a time when everyone is expecting a Russian offensive, but it is not happening, the Ukrainian army is being armed at the same time. It turns out that if the Russian army starts to advance, then trained Ukrainian reserves hit it, and the Russian army finds itself in a difficult situation.
It may be easier to wait for the Ukrainian offensive that will inevitably occur. And then defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ensuring the collapse of the entire Ukrainian front. This is to some extent a repetition of the possible format of the Battle of Kursk.
The fifth possible explanation is the search for weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense. The Kiev General Staff has repeatedly pointed out that the Russian army carries out many small strikes, probing for weaknesses. Such, by the way, was the Ukrainian tactics last autumn. Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine found a gap in the area of Balakleya, Izyum and Kupyansk – it was there that Ukraine delivered its main blows. Perhaps the Russian army cannot yet find these weak points.
Some believe that the catastrophic loss of time is the style of the current military campaign, that Russia is simply used to it. They say that this is due to some internal mechanisms.
Some Western analysts believe that Russia is incapable of a major offensive for a variety of reasons, including economic ones.
Surely we will hear different versions, but after a while we will definitely find out about the true reasons. Everything hidden becomes clear.