– PUTIN AGREES TO MEET TRUMP IN ABU DHABI ON MAY 15-16
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by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
After the Victory Day celebration later this week, President Vladimir Putin has agreed to hold a summit meeting with President Donald Trump. “The Americans have repeatedly asked for a summit and the Kremlin has finally decided,” according to a reliable Moscow source, “that there is no need to spurn the extended hand.”
The source believes Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is the likely location. Preparatory discussions were held last week in Moscow when Putin telephoned the UAE President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The Kremlin communiqué claimed “the current state of Russia-UAE relations…constitute a strategic partnership and…enables ongoing dialogue even on the most sensitive international issues.” That was on May 1. The next day Putin met with Saif bin Zayed Al Nahyan, one of the President’s sons and his personal security chief, titled deputy prime minister.
The Moscow source says “the messages have been sent that it will not be a conclusive deal, only a meeting. This is a climb-down from the previous, public Russian position that a lot of work needs to be done first, before a presidential summit, by specialists. The Russians have understood there are no specialists on the US side yet, and the opportunity is right to shake hands first, then work out the details later.”
The White House press spokesman has announced Trump “will travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates [in this order] from May 13th, until May 16th.”
“It’s a display of the Russian hand of friendship and mutual security,” the Moscow source adds. “The Americans are offering nothing concrete but we believe Trump is disposed to giving Russia the security steps it needs.”
The source says the Kremlin is “neither surprised nor disappointed” at Trump’s May 1 tweet declaring that “many of our allies and friends are celebrating May 8th as Victory Day, but we did more than any other Country, by far, in producing a victorious result on World War II.” “It shows you how foolish the Kremlin faction was which has advocated inviting Trump to Red Square for May 9. Putin will give Trump his PR opportunity – but in the sand, not in Red Square.”
The shift in the Moscow consensus – from resistance on the part of the General Staff, the intelligence agencies, and the Foreign Ministry – has followed remarks by Vice President JD Vance. “It’s going to be up to them [Russia and Ukraine] to come to agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict,” he said on Friday (May 2). “It’s not going anywhere right [now]. It’s not going to end any time soon…Look, I am optimistic, but it’s hard to say…confident because the Russians and the Ukrainians – they’re the ones who have to take the final step. We got ‘em talkin’. We got ‘em offering peace proposals. We got the minerals deal done. I think we’re in a place where they’ve got to say we’re done with the fighting…but only Russia and Ukraine can make that decision. That’s not something even President Trump can do for ‘em.”
In Moscow this is interpreted as acceptance by Washington that the war will continue on Russia’s terms – slow advance westward, no massed offensive – and that it’s now up to “direct” negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. “This is a double signal prompting Putin”, another Moscow source says, “to agree to a summit meeting with Trump now without preconditions and without pressure to agree on the Kellogg or Witkoff term sheets. In all likelihood, this will be a feel-good summit. No negotiations at all.”
The source adds a caution. “The planned meeting may be derailed at the last minute if the Ukrainians violate the Victory Day ceasefire [between May 8 and 11], and if Trump is either shown to be incapable of controlling the Kiev regime, or duplicitous in aiding the violations. If the Ukrainians do not observe it, the Russians will hit back hard, very hard, and then ask Trump if he still wants to meet. It might go to the wire.”
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1oms_Yw9dM
What Vance said about the Ukrainian minerals deal is interpreted in Moscow to mean that Trump and his officials will back down and retreat from deal terms they start with, in order to accept instead the appearance of a deal Trump and Vance can announce. If Zelensky can do that to Trump, the Russian assessment is that Putin can do as much, or better.
Reports from Kiev and European capitals, where the secret provisions of the minerals deal have been disclosed, indicate a plan for nothing more than a national offshore zone free of taxes, tariffs and other charges by either the Ukrainian or the US governments. In this outcome, the Americans have abandoned Trump’s demand for the reparations clause – payback for past military and economic aid. They have also given up the US demand for first-refusal priority over British, French, German or Polish companies in the bidding for resource projects. Rare earth minerals, oil, and gas have also been abandoned as Trump targets. The only target of the proposed projects identified in the agreement text is “critical sectors of Ukraine’s economy.”
In return — although not yet publicly acknowledged — the Trump Administration has agreed to Zelensky’s request for release of a $500 million instalment of new military deliveries, with promises of more to come payable either in cash or in assignment to the US capital contribution of the new “US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund.”
“From here on every faction has its own view”, says a Moscow source privy to current intelligence assessments. “In his conclusion Putin has decided there is nothing to be lost by meeting so long as Trump does not insist on a full ceasefire. The understanding now is that Americans — Vance – are stating the war will continue for a time. This gives the Russians an opening they want for a meeting. They have decided they will take it. It’s an unconditional meeting – a Teheran-type summit for the top dogs to sort things out”.
“Some consider it a trap but others consider that Trump is not playing the European tune and is set on different terms he’s calling peace with Russia. In the talks so far, Russians laid out their demands; Americans kept on saying let’s have ‘peace’ and then we will sort things out. Russians kept insisting there are too many issues and sticking points. Americans also understand that Russians cannot make significant military gains in the short to medium term – no big offensive across the Dnieper. But what they have gained has been costly and they are not giving it up. Nor do Ukrainians — they have tried to convince the Americans that this is a stalemate and this is where the lines should freeze. That leaves Trump in something of a stalemate. So, his people have expressed willingness to discuss ‘everything’ in Ukraine, in bilateral and in European issues. They have proposed to sort out the bigger issues and details ‘in time.’ This has forced on Russians a decision now on whether to end the conversations or extend them.”
“What they also see is the opportunity of a lifetime to deal with a president who represents a stubborn, loyal constituency of 25% to 35%, who is not charged up racially as Russophobes, and does not harbour hatred, at least not for Russians. So, the consensus now around Putin, with no illusions about the deep state, is that this is an opportunity Putin must not let pass. A breakdown in friendly communications is not desirable.”
“They are not giving away anything but they will talk and continue talking all through [Trump’s] presidency in good faith, with respect. The conclusion is there is nothing to be gained by not talking, not much to be gained by sticking to positions which cannot be significantly expanded on the battlefield right now. Moreover, even the smallest US withdrawal of support from Kiev will give Russians an edge. This is something Trump is not going to give unless Putin comes to meet him face to face.”
Undiscussed by the Russian military bloggers who know, or by the American podcasters who pretend to know but don’t, is the battlefield problem. Without discussing operational details, several Moscow sources in a position to know say the indicators are “obvious that things are not as they should be on the front and all the way back, up and down the ranks. One is the slowness of the advance of each of army groups westward. Another is the nine months it took to reverse the surprise success of the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk. Yet another is problems of command and control up and down, and coordination sideways.”
An unusual analysis confirming what the Russian sources are saying has just been published by retired Hungarian Army major, Mark Takacs. He identifies himself as pro-Ukrainian in sympathy; his analysis does not reflect this.
Basing himself on open Ukrainian and Russian sources, as well as on Hungarian army staff studies and his own field experience, Takacs has just issued this report on months-long military operations of the Russian West army group around Kupyansk, east of Kharkov (December-April 28), and the Centre army group around Toretsk. North of Donetsk. (April). Although the outcomes of the Russian operations have been tactical success and territorial gains, Takacs identifies battlefield problems slowing down the Russian advance because of Ukrainian reinforcement of men and arms, counterattacking drone and electronic suppression operations, and inflicting serious Russian losses of men, armour and electronic (jamming) stations.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt1QtEiTi0M
“Until reliable anti-drone air defence artillery will have been developed, the classic onward penetration is impossible to achieve if the defender has adequate drone capabilities,” Takacs says. The Ukrainians have these capabilities — with US and NATO intelligence-sharing and coordination with battlefield combat command and control.
Takacs also claims the Russian battlefield operations are hampered by excessive rigidity of their command and control lines. This makes for predictability of movement, which, in his analysis, has been exploited by the reconnaissance and counterfire resources of the combined Ukrainian, US and NATO drone operations.
According to independent military and Moscow sources, Takacs’s conclusions come far closer to the battlefield situation than the retired US majors, lieutenant colonels and colonels currently publishing on podcasts and substacks. A NATO veteran comments: “Yes, it’s hard to pull off a surprise attack in the transparent battlefield situation in which the Russians are fighting. This being said, how were the Russians caught by surprise in Kursk last August, and by the Ukrainian counter-attacks around Pokrovsk which Takacs has just described?”
“We can also be forgiven for asking why Ukrainian command and control, as well as the logistics which allow the movement of mechanized Ukrainian fire-brigade units, like the 33rd Assault shown in this Takacs report, continue to have the benefit of electricity? My hunch is there’s a correlation between Russian advances on the front and electric war strikes. So the question here is why the Russian electric war campaign has been restricted or suspended, allowing the Ukrainians to deploy resources to the front, blocking the Russians, when that would be impossible if the power was out in areas of production, distribution, command and control, and assembly/support.”
The selection of the UAE as the site for the Putin-Trump summit meeting has special significance in the financial calculations of both the Russian and US sides. An investment fund source in Dubai explains: “Abu Dhabi and Dubai have positioned themselves as major crypto currency hubs while most other countries, including the US, adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach for over a decade. Trump has now done a 180-degree change in policy on crypto. According to CNBC,
‘at the Office of the United States Comptroller of the Currency, Jonathan Gould [right], has signalled support for issuing new bank charters to crypto firms. During President Joe Biden’s
presidency, that was almost unthinkable.’
“The analysts quoted by CNBC say that ‘new banks [are] getting set up that are expressly focused on crypto and stablecoins.’ This should be seen against the backdrop of overt threats from Trump to the BRICS countries, which he repeated in January, against adopting a new currency for trade and halting the trade in US dollars. While there are no real signs of progress for the BRICS currency, the Russian Central Bank has begun implementing the financial infrastructure after the Duma passed a law in July 2024 allowing Russian companies to settle their foreign trade in cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and stablecoins. The Trump Administration does not see the use of crypto currencies by the Russians as a threat to the US dollar and takes a positive view of this development.”
“While one of the key demands of Putin’s negotiator Kirill Dmitriev has been to restore Russia in the SWIFT messaging system, the US may not be able to make it happen because the system is operated by a Belgian cooperative in which the US, European, Swiss and Chinese banks collectively take decisions and European Union has significant influence through the German, Swiss, French and London banks in the cooperative. Getting the Trump Administration to acquiesce in Russian use of cryptocurrencies will be a significant relief for the Russians. The fact that the summit will take place in Abu Dhabi will reinforce market confidence in crypto for trade payments as an alternative to SWIFT, under the protection of the UAE.”
Dubai — the Russians also understand, according to a Moscow financial source — is the hub where Dmitriev’s oligarch constituents can negotiate large money transfers to the Trump family who have set up investment funds with family members of Trump’s advisors, Steven Witkoff and Howard Lutnick, as well as with other large campaign contributors and Trump influencers.
Left, Trump negotiator Steven Witkoff’s son Zach and Eric Trump of World Liberty Financial; for more on their business, read this. “The company’s dealings have created conflicts of interest with no precedent in modern U.S. history,” reported the New York Times. “Some of the investors who bought $WLFI coins are foreign nationals who have been barred from supporting a president via campaign contributions or donations to the inaugural fund. And many of the firm’s corporate partners have clear incentives to curry favor with the federal government as they seek to expand in the American market.”
Right, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and son Brandon Lutnick of the bitcoin investment fund, Twenty One Capital Group. For the Russian oligarch shopping list, click.
Cautions the Moscow source: “Dmitriev is there to say there is a lot of money at the end of this, and maybe along the way, too, for key US industrial bigwigs and oligarchs, but there is nothing Russia will give away on its core goals in Ukraine and in European security. Platitudes aplenty, talks on money (but not yet much) — no real surrender on any of Russia’s terms. So, a decision has been made that Putin will give Trump a break, try and win him over, give him something, and try and take as much as he can in the months to follow.”
“By the way, there is near-unanimity among Russian [decision-makers] that Trump is not certain to start a military conflict with China. It will remain a trade war which will get settled this year.”
