Dmitry Medvedev’s Predictions? or Wishful Thinking?

Predictions of Dmitry Medvedev given today (translated from his Telegram channel)

What could happen in 2023:

1. Increase in oil prices to $ 150 per barrel and gas prices to $ 5,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.

2. The return of the UK to the European Union.

3. The collapse of the European Union after the return of the UK and the abolition of the euro as the currency of the former EU.

4. The seizure by Poland and Hungary of the western regions of the former Ukraine.

5. The creation of the Fourth Reich on the basis of Germany and the satellites that joined it (Poland, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, the Kiev Republic, etc. marginals).

6. The war between France and the Fourth Reich. The partition of Europe, including the new partition of Poland.

7. Separation of Northern Ireland from the Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and accession to the Republic of Ireland.

8. The Civil War in the USA, the separation of California and Texas into independent states. Creation of the union State of Texas and Mexico. The subsequent victory of Elon Musk during the US presidential election in some of the states assigned to the Republicans after the Civil War.

9. Transfer of all major stock exchanges and financial activity from the USA and Europe to Asia.

10. The collapse of the Bretton Woods financial system, including the collapse of the IMF and the World Bank. Abandoning the euro and the dollar as world reserve currencies. The return of the gold standard. Transition to the active use of digital fiat currencies

Ex-Russian President, No Peace Before NATO Rolls-Back to Before 1997


In a lengthy article in the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper, f
ormer Russian president Dmitry Medvedev summarized his thoughts on how the year 2022 has changed the world order forever. Dmitri Medvedev long end-of-year article, all in Russian, “‘Our people, our land, our truth’: Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev – on the results of 2022, which changed the world order”. “I will express my own position on current events. I do not pretend to be impartially detached, since I am a direct participant in them. Yes, it is impossible when it comes to the fate of your Motherland, our people and the whole world.”

He has accused Western powers of lying, causing a rift that will remain for decades to come, and convincing Moscow that there is no sense in trying to reach an agreement with them.
Medevedev, who serves as deputy chair of the national Security Council, wrote in a keynote article on Sunday that the year 2022 has shattered illusions about the West, proving that its promises and principles cannot taken at face value.

“Alas, there is nobody in the West we could deal with about anything for any reason,” he wrote.

Medvedev went on to say that nations that claim global leadership deceived Russia when they claimed NATO expansion in Europe posed no threat to it. They again lied when they backed a peace roadmap for Ukraine, which in reality was meant to give Kiev time to prepare for an eventual armed conflict with Russia, he added. The conflict in Ukraine is a war against Russia by a proxy, which was long in the making, Medvedev claimed.
The behavior of Washington and others this year “is the last warning to all nations: there can be no business with the Anglo-Saxon world [because] it is a thief, a swindler, a cardsharp (n.ed. trickster) that could do anything.”
For Russia, there will be no restoration of normal relations with the West for years or even decades to come, Medvedev predicted.

“From now on we will do without them until a new generation of sensible politicians comes to power there. We will be careful and alert. We will develop relations with the rest of the world,” he wrote.

However, Medvedev argued that the loss of Western leadership could be a net positive, considering what he called the moral bankruptcy of the US-led neo-colonial order. Elites that caused the financial meltdown of 2008 and the ongoing global crisis are unable to claim global leadership, he wrote.
“The West is incapable of offering to the world any new ideas, which would take humanity forward, solve global problems, or provide collective security,” the former president insisted.
Medvedev expects that several regional blocs will emerge in the near future, each with its own values and rules, and that Russia will have its place in the new order.

“The only thing that stops our enemies today is the understanding that Russia will be guided by [the doctrine] on nuclear deterrence. And if there is a real threat, we will act,”Medvedev wrote in the article published on Sunday night. In such a grim scenario there will be nobody left to argue about whether that was “a retaliatory strike or a preventive one.”
“Therefore, the Western world is balancing between a burning desire to maximally humiliate, dismember and destroy Russia, on the one hand, and the desire to avoid a nuclear apocalypse, on the other,” he explained.

Until Russia receives the security guarantees it has demanded, the world “will continue to teeter on the brink of World War III and nuclear catastrophe,” Medvedev wrote, noting that Moscow is doing “everything we can to prevent it.”

Is the West ready, through Kiev proxies, to unleash a full-fledged war against us, including a nuclear war?

Russia presented a list of security proposals to the US and NATO last December, including urging the West to impose a ban on Ukraine entering the military bloc, while insisting that NATO should retreat to its borders of 1997.
After the US and NATO flatly refused, saying they would only be interested in limited strategic arms control talks, it became obvious that Moscow had “no one to talk and nothing to negotiate about” Medvedev argued.
And when in February “Ukrainian junkies announced their desire to revive their nuclear arsenal,” Moscow had no other choice but to act, he claimed.

“Our world has changed, forever. And the main question remains… what kind of future begins today?” he wrote.

“New disarmament agreements are currently unrealistic and unnecessary,” Medvedev reiterated. “The sooner the guarantees of maximum security that suit our country are received, the sooner the situation will normalize.”
via RT

What’s Ahead in the War in Ukraine

by U. S. Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin via Russia Matters

The war in Ukraine has dragged on for nearly 10 months. After an initial Russian cavalry dash seized over 20% of Ukraine, Russian forces then smashed into determined Ukrainian resistance, ending in an embarrassing retreat from Kyiv. From then, the war became an attritional contest between Russia on one side and Ukraine fighting at the head of a Western coalition on the other. During the summer, Russian offensives captured Lyman, Lisichansk and Severo Donetsk. In the fall, Ukrainian offensives recaptured Kharkiv province and Kherson city, shrinking Russian control to roughly 50% of the territories they had captured since Feb. 24, according to one estimate. The opposing sides have adopted two opposing strategies: Russians are fighting a traditional firepower-centric war of attrition; Ukraine is pursuing a terrain-focused war of maneuver. These opposing strategies are as much a product of national resource availability as a deliberate choice. As freezing ground ushers in the winter campaign season, both sides will follow their strategies into limited offensives.

So far both strategies appear to work. Ukraine has recaptured large swaths of territory but exhausted itself during the fall offensive. It suffered frightful losses and depleted key stockpiles of equipment and ammunition. There is still capacity to replace losses and establish new combat formations, but those are rapidly withering.

I believe that neither side will achieve spectacular territorial gain, but the Russian side is more likely to achieve its goals of draining Ukrainian resources while preserving its own.

The Ukrainian Strategy

The Ukrainians’ terrain-focused war of maneuver is constrained by two factors: limited artillery ammunition and equipment production, and coalition considerations. Ukraine started the war with 1,800 artillery pieces of Soviet caliber. These allowed firing rates of 6,000 to 7,000 rounds a day against 40,000 to 50,000 Russian daily rounds. By now this artillery is mostly out of ammunition, and in its place Ukraine is using 350 Western caliber artillery pieces, many of which are destroyed or breaking down from overuse. Meanwhile, Western nations are themselves running out of ammunition; the U.S. is estimated to produce only 15,000 155mm shells a month. This constraint has forced Ukraine to adopt mass infantry formations focused on regaining territory at any cost. Ukraine simply cannot go toe to toe with Russia in artillery battles. Unless Ukrainian troops close to direct fire fights with Russian troops, there is a significant chance that they will be destroyed at a distance by Russian artillery.

Ukraine’s second constraint is the coalition nature of its warfare. Since running out of its own stocks, Ukraine is increasingly reliant on Western weaponry. Maintaining the Western coalition is crucial to the Ukrainian war effort. Without a constant string of victories, domestic economic concern may cause coalition members to defect. If Western support dries up due to depletion of stock or of political will, Ukraine’s war effort collapses for lack of supplies. In some ways, Ukraine has no choice but to launch attacks no matter the human and material cost.

Ukraine built an infantry-centric army of highly motivated conscripted troops with limited to no training. They support the core fighting force of the prewar professional army and about 14 new brigades equipped with Western-donated weapons and vehicles. On the battlefield, strike groups attack quickly, penetrating deep and fast, then hand over captured areas to draftees to defend. This tactic worked well in areas where the shortage of Russian manpower prevented a solid front, such as in the Kharkiv region. In the Kherson region, where Russia had sufficient density of forces, this tactic resulted in large casualties and little progress, until logistic issues caused Russia to retreat.

The Achilles heel of this strategy is manpower. Ukraine started the war with 43 million citizens and 5 million military-aged males, but according to the U.N., 14.3 million Ukrainians have fled the war, and a further 9 million are in Crimea or other Russian-occupied territories. This means Ukraine is down to about 20 to 27 million people. At this ratio, it has less than 3 million draftable men.A million have been drafted already, and many of the rest are either not physically fit to serve or occupy a vital position in the nation’s economy. In short, Ukraine might be running out of men, in my view.

The Russian Strategy

The Russian forces are limited by manpower but strengthened by massive artillery and equipment stockpiles enabled by a robust military industrial complex. While there have been numerous reports in Western media that the Russian army is running out of artillery ammunition, so far there’s been no visible slacking of Russian artillery fire on any front. Based on these factors, the Russian side has relied on a traditional firepower-centric war of attrition. The goal is to force an unsustainable casualty rate, destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment, while preserving Russia’s own forces. Territory is not important; its loss is acceptable to preserve combat power. At Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, the Russian army refused to fight under unfavorable conditions and withdrew, accepting the political cost to preserve its forces.

To execute this strategy, the Russian army relies on firepower, particularly its artillery. Each Russian brigade has three artillery battalions compared to just one in each Western brigade. Paired with correction by massed quantities of UAVs and quadcopters, Russian artillery pulverizes Ukrainian forces before infantry mops up survivors. It is a slow, grinding war, but with a casualty ratio that is significantly in Russia’s favor. Russia couldn’t attack because it lacked the manpower to secure the flanks of advancing troops. Up to now, Russians could only advance in Donbas, where advance did not extend the frontline. Even here the intent was more to draw in Ukrainian forces and destroy themrather than capture the city of Bakhmut. Mobilization has the potential to overcome Russia’s manpower shortages and enable offensive operations, while equipping its forces is possible due to the mobilization of industry. Precision munition production is also up, despite consistent doubt in Western press. Video of strikes by Russian “Lancet 3” loitering kamikaze drones is up up by 1,000% since Oct. 13, according to one estimate, indicating a major increase in production.

The Coming Winter

If the Ukrainians decide to launch a major offensive, they could do so in two places, in my view. The first is in the north, in the Kharkiv region, but limited crossing over the Oskil River generates the same logistical challenges the Russians faced at Kherson. The second is in the south, to cut off the Russian land bridge to Crimea,eventually capturing the peninsula. This is unlikely to succeed. The Ukrainian army would be attacking in terrain ideal for Russian artillery. It could become a repeat of the battle at Kherson, but without Russian logistics difficulties, stemming from a limited number of crossings over the Dnipro River, with just as little gain and the same heavy losses marked by whole mechanized companies wiped out, endless scenes of ambulance convoys and new cemeteries all over Ukraine. The levels of attrition would play right into Russian hands. The political pressure on the Ukrainian government to justify the losses taken from Russian artillery in Donbas by retaking territory elsewhere, as well as the pressure from the Western coalition, may drive Ukraine to attack regardless.

For the Russian leadership the question is: When and where to attack? The timing depends on Russian artillery ammunition stocks. If they are high, Russia may attack in winter, otherwise it may stockpile and attack in spring after the mud season. Timing is also driven by the training requirements for the mobilized reservists. Longer training increases the effectiveness of the reservists and reduces casualties, thus lowering political risk for the Kremlin. Ultimately, the pressures that the Russian leadership views as most important will decide the outcome. Will the pressure from domestic politics for a quick victory win out, or will military considerations favor delaying until the end of spring mud season in March/April? So far, the Kremlin has gone with military considerations ahead of political ones, suggesting that Russia will launch only a limited offensive this winter.

Location is another factor. The Kharkiv front is heavily wooded, restricting the effectiveness of firepower, and it is strategically meaningless without attacking the city of Kharkiv. This major urban center would take months to capture at very high cost. A limited attack to regain the Oskil River line would improve Russia’s defensive line but present no strategic gain. In Donbas, the Russian army is already maintaining pressure. Extra manpower and artillery units won’t speed up that offensive much. For the Russian army, the Zaporizhzhia front holds the most promise. The Pologi-Gulai Polie-Pokrovskoye railroad is ideally placed to supply a Russian offensive driving north from Pologi. Eventually capturing Pavlograd would allow the capture of Donbas by cutting off two main railroads and highways supplying the Ukrainian army in Donbas and attacking the Ukrainian army there from the rear. The open terrain is ideal for the Russian firepower-centric strategy, and a chance to draw in and destroy the last of the Ukrainian operational reserves and further attrite its manpower is directly in line with Russian objectives. Lastly, the hard frozen ground would make new defensive positions hard to dig without heavy equipment. The limited attack vicinity of Ugledar could be a shaping operation to secure the eastern flank of the future offensive.

Conclusion

Wars of attrition are won through careful husbandry of one’s own resources while destroying the enemy’s. Russia entered the war with vast materiel superiority and a greater industrial base to sustain and replace losses. They have carefully preserved their resources, withdrawing every time the tactical situation turned against them. Ukraine started the war with a smaller resource pool and relied on the Western coalition to sustain its war effort. This dependency pressured Ukraine into a series of tactically successful offensives, which consumed strategic resources that Ukraine will struggle to replace in full, in my view. The real question isn’t whether Ukraine can regain all its territory, but whether it can inflict sufficient losses on Russian mobilized reservists to undermine Russia’s domestic unity, forcing it to the negotiation table on Ukrainian terms, or will Russian’ attrition strategy work to annex an even larger portion of Ukraine.

AUTHOR: Alex Vershinin

United States Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin retired after 20 years of service, including eight years as an armor officer with four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and 12 years working as a modeling and simulations officer in NATO and U.S. Army concept development and experimentation. This included a tour with the U.S. Army Sustainment Battle Lab, where he led the experimentation scenario team.

After the Zelensky Spectacle – Let the Partition Begin!

by David Stockman via Antiwar.com

The spectacle in the US Capitol Building last night was downright retch-worthy. And we are not actually referring to the detestable little warmongering clown who preened at the podium in a sweatshirt and cargo pants, offering endless lies and hideously false promises about why American taxpayers and consumers are being bled to death in a pointless and unnecessary war.

No, we are referring to the pathetic gaggle of Representatives and Senators who applauded relentlessly and uproariously in response to the casuistry of the tinny poseur who stood before them, albeit one who should have never been granted that august platform in the first place.

After all, the mountebank who leads the rapidly decaying remnant of a nation that was never built to last anyway has been able to bring the world to the brink of economic catastrophe and even nuclear war for one reason alone: Namely, because the bipartisan duopoly on Capitol Hill has shoveled gargantuan sums of money into Ukraine and Washington’s proxy war on Russia with mindless negligence.

And on that score the numbers tell you all you need to know. To date, Washington has authorized $65 billion of economic and military aid, with other NATO nation’s throwing-in $32 billion additional. On top of that, the pending Omnibus Abomination will authorize $45 billion more, which Zelensky has already implied is not nearly enough.

Still, that’s $142 billion and counting, which in turn has no possibility of enabling the Ukrainian victory that Zelensky promised. And that’s also 91% of Ukraine’s 2020 prewar GDP of $156 billion, and an order of magnitude more than the under $100 billion GDP that is left before Russia’s impending winter offensive finishes it off completely.

Stated differently, these war-besotted fools are enabling the absolute destruction of the cities, towns, villages, countryside and economy of what was the world’s 30th largest polity, even as its soldiers and citizens on both sides of the front lines are being slaughtered in their hundreds of thousands.

Yet contrary to Zelensky’s deceitful rhetoric there is nothing at stake of importance to either humanity or the security of the “free world” or most especially the safety and liberty of the American homeland. Absolutely nothing at all – -and that includes all of the War Party’s cant, robotically repeated by Zelensky last night, about the rule of law, the sovereignty of borders and the freedom of the peoples of Ukraine and their neighbors.

As we have repeatedly documented, this is not a Russian invasion but a civil war in the “borderlands” territory (i.e. “Ukraine” in Russian) that prior to the communist tyranny of the Soviet Union was always a vassal and sometimes integral part of greater Russia. The present civil war, in fact, was instigated in 2014 by the illegitimate government installed in Kiev after Washington’s coup d’ tat against the duly elected and Russian-friendly president.

This Washington managed “regime change”, in turn, set the regions of the artificial state of Ukraine against each other based on long-standing differences of language, religion, ethnicity and economics, among others. And when the Russian speaking populations of Crimea, the Donbas and the Black Sea coastal areas sought separation owing to fears of repression by the Ukrainian nationalist and neo-Nazi politicians who took control of the government in Kiev, the latter brought the bloody violence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including the overtly neo-Nazi Azov Brigade, down upon them.

That is to say, the Kiev instigated civil war against the Russian speaking populations of the east and south had been raging for eight years before Putin finally responded to their pleas for overt military assistance; and also after upwards of 14,000 separatist military and civilian personal had been killed by Kiev’s violent onslaught against what was purported to be its own population.

It also came 14 years after Putin had insisted (at the 2007 Munich Security Conference) that Ukrainian ascension to NATO and the emplacement of nuclear missiles within minutes from Moscow was a red line that could not be crossed, yet which action was virtually certain by February 2020.

Finally, the “invasion” also came after 10 days of massively stepped-up Ukrainian artillery attacks on the Donbas, which by every signal of military action and logistics implied that a Kiev “invasion” of the separatist republics was imminent.

In short, “partition” of what had been the tyrannical Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine, an entity that had never existed until it was brought to life at the end of gun barrels by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev, had always been the end game. It was the clumsy hegemonist neocons of Washington who finally catalyzed the split-up after 2014 owing to their own profound ignorance of the region’s history.

Indeed, the die was cast during the last legitimate election in 2010, when the Russian-friendly candidate, Yanukovych, won the national election by a hair, on the back of 60-90% margins in the east and south (blue areas of the map) against the Ukrainian nationalist candidate, Tymoshenko, who won the less economically prosperous areas of the center and west by similar 60-90% margins (red areas).

Indeed, one merely needs to note the city names in the blue areas of the map to understand that the war in Ukraine is about partition, not “freedom”, as Zelensky so risibly suggested last night: Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol, Zaporizhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Odessa all voted blue big time in 2010, have been at the front lines of the civil war since 2014 and mostly voted to leave Ukraine and join Russia during the September referendums.

To be sure, the Washington hegemonists, neocons and warmongers will insist that these referendums were invalid, but that doesn’t explain the dog which is not barking. To wit, in the Russian-speaking blue areas of the map, there have been virtually no reports of a “resistance” movement among the local populations in opposition to the Russian “occupiers” and the purported quislings who run their separatist governments and militias. If anything, they believe they have been “liberated”, not “occupied”.

So here’s the ultimate insanity of last night’s spectacle and the $141 billion that the US/NATO will have poured into what amounts to a de facto genocide upon the peoples of what is now this wretched stretch of black earth. That is to say, the clear outlines of a diplomatic solution and the potential armistice borders were drawn by the people themselves in the 2010 election.

In fact, with Putin’s referendums already have been completed in most of the blue areas, what remains is to silence the guns, ratify the territorial status quo and enable an international peace conference to carry to its logical conclusion the partition of post-communist Ukraine that was implicit in the 2010 election results.

As it has happened, post-communist Yugoslavia did it and Czechoslovakia did it and all the effected populations are far better off. It’s now time for the borders created by Lenin from “New Russia” and from parts and pieces of the Czarist empire and post WWI Galicia, by Stalin from WWII era Poland, Hungary and Romania, and by Khrushchev from Russian Crimea to be assigned to the dust bin of history. That the world may draw back from the dangerous precipice on which it is now precariously perched, therefore, depends only upon revocation of the dead-hand of the Soviet butchers and tyrants.

The irony is that Putin would buy this solution in a heartbeat because he doesn’t want to rule (and heavily subsidize) the rump of Ukraine depicted by the red areas above, anyway. We doubt that he is as evil as Washington claims, but we are quite sure he is way too smart to want to rule what would be the hostile populations of Kiev and Lviv – to say nothing of the even more hostile peoples of Poland, the Baltics and western Europe.

Of course, Zelensky and his claque of bloodthirsty destroyers would scream to high heaven. Well, unless they were given safe passage to transport themselves and the billions they have stolen from American taxpayers and socked-away in secret bank accounts to safe havens far from the homelands they have destroyed by their obstinate promulgation of gigantic lies.

That is, this misbegotten war is not about freedom and democracy in the slightest. Ukraine is every bit as authoritarian and corrupt as Russia, and likely now more so. All of the opposition press has been shutdown or taken over by the state; most of Zelensky’s opponents have been arrested or killed; there are no longer any true opposition parties; the national security apparatus has been largely purged of dissenters; and Zelensky has lately even attacked the Russian Orthodox Church.

Still, there can be little doubt that the creepy little con man who last night recited the lines written by this neocon/NATO puppet-masters with just the right amount of Ukrainian accent could be bought off for even a small part of the billions he has already stolen. Surely, a man as small and unaccomplished as Zelensky would have a price equally modest.

No, the problem lies in last night’s audience, not the poseur at the podium. The neocon infested Republicans are trying to break the habit of embracing the Deep State’s Forever Wars, but the progress is painfully slow and limited to a few stalwarts like Rand Paul.

But there is hope for the GOP, even as the Dems remain steadfastly beyond rescue from the grips of the war fevers so pathetically on display in the House chamber last night.

You could see it as they continuously leapt to their feet and energetically slapped their hands together upon the slightest inanity emanating form the well of the House. That’s because not only is this war not about freedom and human rights, nor even the rule of law, border integrity or the rules of a peaceful, stable international order.

Actually, they were yelping in schoolboy fashion against the demonized President of the Russia who purportedly put Donald Trump in the White House and badly loosened their grip on political power for a longtime to come.

At the end of the day, the motive power of this deadly, despicable adventure is the Trump Derangement Syndrome. And given the everlasting damage it will thrust upon American taxpayers, workers and consumers – to say nothing of the global economy – that’s about as sick as it gets. The minor ruckus of January 6th doesn’t hold a candle.

David Stockman was a two-term Congressman from Michigan. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street. He’s the author of three books, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America and TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back. He also is founder of David Stockman’s Contra Corner and David Stockman’s Bubble Finance Trader.

Russia’s Major Offensive in April?

Analysts of the German Ministry of Defense believe that Russia will launch a new offensive in Ukraine in April 2023.

According to the German defense ministry, there are two possible scenarios for the future campaign:

  1. In April, a massive offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will begin with the aim of reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. At the same time, Belarus is concentrating about 10,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, forcing the Ukrainian command to transfer part of its forces to the north of the country.

Further, Russian troops are entrenched in the recaptured territories, in order to maximize the complexity of Kiev’s counter-offensive actions, in parallel, the Kremlin offers the West a new round of negotiations.

  1. Russian troops together with the Armed Forces of Belarus will launch an offensive on two fronts: the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Donbas, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the Kiev direction. If the operation is successful, the next task will be to reach the western borders of Ukraine in order to block the supply channels of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from the outside, as well as Russian troops will enter Transnistria.

It should be noted that for the Western think tank and military analysts of the Ministries of Defense, the date “April 2023” appears for the first time.

The Clash Between Russia and NATO: A Matter of Weeks (Days)?

There is an interesting article at a Russian site that claims NATO has taken the decision to enter the war when Russia begins its winter offensive, and perhaps even before that. This has apparently been reported by a number of high level (but anonymous) sources. The article claims that the U.S. will not accept defeat in Ukraine and it looks like its EU vassals in NATO will go along with the plan to enter the war.

 

via Rusre Info (Machine Translation)

According to several high-level sources (1), NATO has taken the decision to officially enter the conflict alongside Ukraine in the weeks or even days to come.

The main reason for this would be the very next general Russian offensive planned, according to NATO, and which, according to it, would decimate the Ukrainian army not only in the Donbass but also on the side of Kyiv (many Russian units are in a combat situation in Belarus on the borders with Ukraine).

But NATO has always been very clear: Ukraine CANNOT LOSE. For Washington, the only solution would therefore be for NATO forces to enter Ukraine, hoping that this would put an end to the Russian offensive. The calculation is that Vladimir Putin will not want to directly confront NATO with the possible (nuclear) consequences, and therefore will then back down.

But going to war may seem impossible in view of several things: On the one hand NATO itself speaks of the current shortage of ammunition and equipment following its massive deliveries to Ukraine. On the other hand the peoples of Europe are probably not ready to support a war, being currently more concerned about their winter survival.

We were able to interview, under various hats, several senior officers active in the French army:

1- “Currently, the French army is divided into three groups: the warmongers who are often office officers who have never seen a war near or far; those who want to be neutral because they consider that the army would do better to defend French interests; and those who have done the “field” in Africa or elsewhere who do not want to hear about it because for them this conflict does not concern us and we do not have to get involved in it.
The exercises to prepare for a “high-intensity war” have been going on since March. They first took place in central France on military bases in sparsely populated departments. The exercises consist mainly of urban guerrilla warfare and attacks!
If Macron wants a “truce” it is to replay it upside down to Putin. A truce will only serve to replenish the arms stocks of the USA and the EU which are almost bloodless and they need time to replenish them. This is the mistake not to commit because it will strengthen NATO. ”
According to him, if “Putin is smart” (and he has no doubt about it), he will strike massively now to prevent NATO from having time to turn around.
According to him, Macron sent 10 unfortunate Leclerc tanks to NATO. It seems to be the best (???)! Problem, spare parts come from China. So, if the Chinese play the game with Putin, we cannot fix them.
On the subject of ammunition: “Ammunition stocks being what they are, what are we going to fight with? »
In addition, the winter break would have been used to transfer Patriot and other systems that are not yet on the road.
2- According to other sources (French air base), Air Force officers receive intensive Russian language courses.
3 – According to other sources, (army) orders for ammunition for African countries have been canceled by the French authorities, instead ammunition was sent to Romania where French forces are stationed.
4- According to another senior officer in activity “There are 60 Rafale fighter planes left in France, of which at least 30 are no longer operational because we no longer have the financial means to maintain them. In fact, during the parade on July 14, all the airworthy planes gave their little demonstration to give the image of a country with a “strong” army, whereas we are completely exhausted. The American F35s have huge technical problems and are unusable. The 200 tanks in our possession are also not operational because they have been stored for a very long time in poor conditions and in addition, for lack of money, we cannot restore them”

The least we can say is that the French army is not very inclined to confront us. That said, the European and American governments have an agenda to follow, made urgent on the one hand by the predicted crash of the dollar and on the other hand by the current economic meltdown which will only worsen in Western countries. A state of war would trigger martial law and global population control as it has been developed in recent years under the pretext of “covid”. They may also think that a state of war would unite the citizens behind them.

We see today that Europe and the United States talk almost every daily about negotiations and the “Christmas truce”. This is of course a scam, such a truce would allow the Ukrainian forces to be refloated with new ammunition. In the United States the armament factories work day and night. Russia has repeatedly replied “no truce” and “there is nothing to negotiate as long as Ukraine remains on its positions”.

One hypothesis is that NATO imagines that its entry into the war will immediately make Russia capitulate out of “fear”. In this hypothesis, the Western countries will then take control of Russia and its resources, Putin having disappeared from the scene. A gigantic blow of bluff in short.

Another hypothesis is that all this is part of a NATO intoxication aimed at canceling the next general offensive of the Russian forces which already seems to be “terrorizing” the NATO forces.

In any case, this is a very bad calculation since it is clear that Russia will go through with the mission assigned by Vladimir Putin. Counting that our forces will retreat in the face of a few NATO regiments whose armament problems Russia knows is a ridiculous calculation… and which will very quickly prove to be extremely deadly.

On the ground, apart from the territories passed under Russian control, we are in fact in the same situation as at the beginning of 2022: Ukraine was heavily bombarding Donetsk and we knew that Ukraine was going to attack in March 2022; we therefore attacked the first, at the end of February. Today Ukraine is heavily bombing Donetsk and it seems possible that NATO is planning an all-out attack or trying to buy time while its stocks are replenished. What do you think we’ll do…?

We will be fixed very quickly and here is a small end-of-year gift which, I have no doubt, will interest the French authorities who read this article. Image extracted from a very complete file provided by French friends of Russia whom we warmly thank. This is just one example among many others and the French authorities will understand the situation of what will happen if (or when…) NATO enters the fray. French friends who live in the region should take a vacation…

I thank Valerya B. for her help in writing this article.

Boris Gennadevich Karpov
https://boriskarpov.tvs24.ru

(1) Sources: Senior active officer(s) in the French army Senior
managers of major French industrial groups
NATO General Staff
Polish
Ministry Ukrainian Ministry

Gangsters and Philanthropists – Remember the Covid Lies?

Remember the promises, the lies, the scare mongering, the hysterics? 

Straight from the Mouth of the Cabal

by Karl HAEMERS via Unz Review

In a recent The Occidental Observer essay titled “Life Without Jews: The Amazing Adventures of Israeli Trans-Pedophile and Tampon-Fetishist Jonathan Yaniv,” author Tobias Langdon recounts the grotesque and perverted—and typically Israeli Jewish—behavior of this being who had the “attention of millions of people around the world” for just one of his/her vile acts.

Inspired by the topic, here we will examine the outrageous behavior of another Israeli Jew who has attracted the attention of many millions around the world. Yuval Noah Harari is described as an “advisor” to the globalist transhumanist cult of power known as the World Economic Forum, whose Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab has openly stated it is developing “a fusion of our physical, biological and digital identities” for all humankind. Amazingly, Harari’s public statements, many of them made from the main stage at the annual World Economic Forum conference where he has become a favorite keynote speaker, are far more outrageous and outraging than even Schwab’s. Almost half the age of Schwab, Harari at 46 is less likely to be an “advisor” than a spokesman for the sociopathic transhumanist futurology the World Economic Forum is not only envisioning, but increasingly imposing over today’s world through its many partners.

Harari’s popularity and influence is immense. From his About website:

Prof. Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, philosopher, and the bestselling author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, and the series Sapiens: A Graphic History and Unstoppable Us. His books have sold 40 Million copies in 65 languages, and he is considered one of the world’s most influential public intellectuals today.

The World Economic Forum’s bio on Harari further boasts that he has published with the Guardian, Financial Times, the New York Times, the Atlantic, the Economist and Nature magazine. New York Times is of course by the Jewish Sulzberger family, the Economist is still 21% owned by the Rothschilds with Evelyn de Rothschild Chairman for over fifteen years until the late 80s, Nature magazine was co-founded by the early transhumanist Thomas Huxley (grandfather of Aldous Huxley, author of Brave New World), the Guardian “has continued its long-standing tradition of liberal [i.e., radical] politics” (primarily globalist), and the Atlantic is currently majority-owned by the Emerson Collective which promotes non-White immigration, works to “combat the achievement gap among students of color,” and engages in “philanthrocapitalism.” Harari has found suitable outlets for his transhumanist ranting, and/or they have found him.

Harari’s first popular book Sapiens is derived from lectures he gave to his undergraduate world history classes. He began his academic career in the program of the Israeli Defense Forces known as Atuda, which allows high school graduates to defer their mandatory conscription in the IDF to attend university, provided they study topics applicable to the military. Harari published such works as “Strategy and Supply in Fourteenth-Century Western European Invasion Campaigns” in the Journal of Military History, and “The Concept of ‘Decisive Battles’ in World History”, among many others. He was exempted from IDF service due to “an undisclosed health problem” but nothing “catastrophic.”

He lives with his husband on a moshav, an agricultural co-operative, outside Jerusalem. Being gay, he says, helped him to question received opinions. “Nothing should be taken for granted,” he has said, “even if everybody believes it.”

Harari’s husband is also his agent and manager, Itzik Yahav. “He likes to say, ‘You don’t understand—Yuval works for me!’” Yahav declined an invitation to have Harari participate in the World Economic Forum, at Davos, in 2017, because the proposed panels were “not good enough.” A year later, when Harari was offered the main stage, in a slot between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, Yahav accepted.

At his 2018 addresses at the World Economic Forum, Harari’s outrageous statements found their greatest reach. He participated in four speaking events that year, including two panels titled “Questioning Our Human Future” and “Putting Jobs Out of Work.” It was Harari’s keynote lecture “Will the Future Be Human?” that should concern the rest of humanity most. This is Harari’s opening statement:

We are probably one of the last generations of homo sapiens. Within a century or two, Earth will be dominated by entities that are more different from us than we are different from neanderthals or from chimpanzees. Because in the coming generations, we will learn how to engineer bodies and brains and minds.

Harari speaks with certainty and even excitement about processes for which humanity should have a choice. In his view however, this transhumanist future is inevitable.

  • “This will be decided by the people who own the data. Those that control the data control not just the future of humanity, but the future of life itself.”
  • “We have reached the point where we can hack… human beings and other organisms.”
  • “…the rise of machine learning and AI are giving us the necessary computing power. And at the same time, advances in … brain science are giving us the necessary biological understanding.”
  • “You can really summarize 150 years of biological research since Charles Darwin in three words: Organisms are algorithms.”
  • “When the infotech revolution merges with the biotech revolution, what you get is the ability to hack human beings.”
  • “You will not be able to hide from Amazon, Ali Baba and the Social Police.”
  • “Once we have algorithms that understand me better than I understand myself, they could predict my desires, manipulate my emotions, and even take decisions on my behalf. And if we are not careful, the outcome could be the rise of digital dictatorships.”
  • “If democracy cannot adapt to these new conditions, then humans will come to live under the rule of digital dictatorships. Already at present, we are seeing the formation of more and more sophisticated surveillance regimes throughout the world.”
  • “By hacking organisms, elites may gain the power to re-engineer the future of life itself. … This will be the greatest revolution in biology since the beginning of life four billion years ago.”
  • “Science is replacing evolution by natural selection with evolution by intelligent design. Not the intelligent design of some god above the clouds, but our intelligent design. … These are the new driving forces of evolution.”
  • “If we don’t’ regulate (data), a tiny elite may come to control not just the future of human societies, but the shape of life forms in the future.”
  • “As a historian I can tell you two things about the past: … it wasn’t fun … and it’s not coming back. So nostalgic fantasies are really not a solution.”
  • “We had better call upon our scientists, our philosophers, our lawyers and even our poets—or especially our poets—to turn their attention to this big question: how do you regulate the ownership of data? The future not just of humanity but the future of life itself, may depend on the answer to this question.”

Thus Harari ends his address to the WEF in 2018 with a big question. But there can be little question that the answer of who will regulate the data is those “elites” he appears to warn us about. They are the partners in the WEF, which include the world’s most powerful corporations, the governments of most current nations of the globe, globalist “think tanks” and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), the world’s military and intelligence agencies, and above all, the most wealthy and powerful Jewish banking family dynasties that top the pyramid of power. These are the “elites” who will own and control the data, and from that, everything else. Harari must know this, since he is their spokesman. Knowing his people will dominate the elite, a digital dictatorship is a future he is looking forward to.

Looking through these key statements, we see that Harari dismisses God more thoroughly than Nietzsche, and replaces Him with the technocratic “elites” which include Harari himself. This is a distinctly Judaic concept. He impresses the inevitability of his technocratic future, and asserts that we cannot return to an unpleasant past to avoid the challenge. He ascribes an omnipotence in the future to those who own the data, and conveys a helplessness among the rest of humanity before this ultimate power over all of life. The god-like “elites” are watching, and there will be no escape.

Harari allows for no glitches in the programs, no side effects from the technologic hacking of humanity, no machine failures, no problems except “digital dictatorships.” Critiques of his books however are more scathing. Canadian Professor of Anthropology Christopher Robert Hallpike stated in a review of Sapiens that:

…one has often had to point out how surprisingly little he seems to have read on quite a number of essential topics. It would be fair to say that whenever his facts are broadly correct they are not new, and whenever he tries to strike out on his own he often gets things wrong, sometimes seriously. … [W]e should not judge Sapiens as a serious contribution to knowledge but as ‘infotainment’, a publishing event to titillate its readers by a wild intellectual ride across the landscape of history, dotted with sensational displays of speculation, and ending with blood-curdling predictions about human destiny.

This past summer, Current Affairs magazine published “The Dangerous Populist Science of Yuval Noah Harari,” which stated: “The best-selling author is a gifted storyteller and popular speaker. But he sacrifices science for sensationalism, and his work is riddled with errors.”

Last month the German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung called Harari a “brand” created by his partner to sell everything from comic books and children’s stories to videos (a distinctly Jewish approach), and that his fans treat Harari like a “pop star” despite his grim message that humans are obsolete and machines will replace us.

Harari was back as a featured speaker at the World Economic Forum in 2020. He was introduced by the IDF-trained Israeli Jew Orit Gadiesh, who calls herself the “chairman” of Bain Capital (once headed by Mitt Romney), and as I reported in this TOO essay, is on the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum. Harari spoke along with the long-time Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte, on the topic “How to Survive the 21st Century.” He may have surpassed his 2018 address in outrageous quotes.

  • “…three problems pose existential challenges to our species … nuclear war, ecological collapse and technological disruption.”
  • “…technology may also disrupt human society and the very meaning of human life in numerous ways, ranging from the creation of the global useless class to the rise of data colonialism and of digital dictatorships.”
  • “…automation will eliminate millions upon millions of jobs.”
  • “…the automation revolution … will be a cascade of ever bigger disruptions.”
  • “In the past, humans had to struggle against exploitation. In the 21st century, the really big struggle will be against irrelevance. And it’s much worse to be irrelevant than to be exploited. Those who fail in the struggle against irrelevance will constitute a new useless class. People who are useless, not from the viewpoint of their friends and family of course, but useless from the viewpoint of the economic and political system (sic). And this useless class will be separated by an ever growing gap from the ever more powerful elite.”
  • “…AI will likely create immense wealth in a few high tech hubs, while other countries will either go bankrupt, or become exploited data colonies.”
  • “…the other major danger we face is the rise of digital dictatorships, which will monitor everybody, all the time.”
  • “We humans should get used to the idea that we are no longer mysterious souls. We are now hackable animals.”
  • “If this power (to hack human beings) falls into the hands of a 21st century Stalin, the result will be the worst totalitarian regime in human history.”
  • “If we allow the emergence of such total surveillance regimes, don’t think that the rich and powerful in places like Davos will be safe.”
  • “…the ability to hack humans might still undermine the very meaning of human freedom.”
  • “…humans will simply not be able to understand the computers’ decisions … [H]umans are likely to lose control over our own lives, and also lose the ability to understand public policy.”
  • “What will be the meaning of human life when most decisions are taken by algorithms?”
  • “If we fail to conceptualize the new hell quickly enough, we might find ourselves entrapped there with no way out.”
  • “…AI and biotechnology will give us god-like abilities to re-engineer life, and even to create completely new life forms.”
  • “Our intelligent design is going to be the new driving force of the evolution of life. In using our new divine powers of creation, we might make mistakes on a cosmic scale. ”
  • “Of course this is not a prophecy. These are just possibilities. Technology is never deterministic.”
  • “To do something effective, we need global cooperation. All the three existential challenges [nuclear war, ecological collapse and technological disruption] that we face are global challenges that demand global solutions.”
  • “If we allow such an arms race to develop in fields like AI and bio-engineering, it doesn’t really matter who wins the arms race. The loser will be humanity.”
  • “In the 21st century, good nationalists must also be globalists.”
  • “If we return there now (the jungle of constant war), our species will probably annihilate itself.”
  • “I very much hope that we can rely on the leaders assembled here, and not on the rats.”

Some of this—even quite a bit of it—may come to be true. We are already seeing increasing gaps between elites and everyone else, surveillance is continually being refined, and already there are powerful forces that seek a dictatorship, digital or otherwise and are eager to rid the public square of traditional freedoms such as free speech. But Harari’s is certainly a dystopian vision that should be resisted at all costs.

The main pattern of Harari’s discourse is fear requiring globalism as a solution. This is the old Hegelian dialectic we have seen many times before, most recently with the Covid pandemic virus as the fear (another invisible menace), and lockdowns and vaccines as the solutions. Harari here admits the possibility of mistakes, but never suggests that his technocratic near future is anything but inevitable. Machines will take over human jobs, and the “useless class” will grow. This is by no means inevitable however, as National Socialist Germany showed with its program of restricting mechanical labor and promoting manual labor in the building of the Autobahn, in order to improve and eventually all but eliminate unemployment. Harari’s techno-future could be heaven, or it could be hell, and even the “rich and powerful” and the “leaders” in Davos could be subject to the hellscape. The closer they are to the peak of the global hierarchy, the more closely they will be watched. That’s how Stalin did it.

Stalin (Dzhugashvili) also had his Jewish “advisors,” and, as the Darling of Davos, Harari will excel among the technocratic elites beside Klaus Schwab, who also was mentored by Jews such as Henry Kissinger and Hermann Kahn, and who also incited fears of global catastrophe. Schwab cites Jewish author Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, who wrote The American Challenge, as a great influence, and Harari cites Jewish author Jared Diamond of Guns, Germs and Steel as his literary influence. As a spokesman for instilling and normalizing the 4th Industrial Revolution that will make humans “hackable animals,” Harari will never become useless like so many of the rest of us. His mad ravings are worshiped among the WEF power elites as revelations straight from the master Machine. But among the rest of us normal humans, Harari must appear a sickly vegan degenerate homosexual Israeli Jew holding dangerous sociopathic delusions of dystopian grandeur.

(Republished from The Occidental Observer by permission of author or representative)

Kiev’s Needs Has Outstripped the Available Supply

via RT

The fighting in Ukraine has “exposed flaws in US strategic planning” and “revealed significant gaps” in the US and NATO military industrial base, the Washington Post reported on Friday. As Kiev’s forces consume more ammunition than the West can produce, the Pentagon seeks to cope by training them to fight more like Americans.

“Stocks of many key weapons and munitions are near exhaustion, and wait times for new production of missiles stretches for months and, in some cases, years,” the Post noted, as part of a narrative about how the US has funneled some $20 billion in military aid to Kiev just this year. Only $6 billion of that has been in new weapons contracts, while the rest came from the Pentagon stockpiles.

The US military-industrial complex can make about 14,000 rounds of ammunition for the 155-mm howitzers, the Post quoted US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, while Ukrainian forces go through about 6,000 a day during heavy fighting.

The US military-industrial complex is “in pretty poor shape right now,” Seth Jones of the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told the Post.

“We are really low… and we’re not even fighting,” Jones said, adding that in scenarios where the US is facing China or Russia in a conventional conflict, “we don’t make it past four or five days in a war game before we run out of precision missiles.”

Washington’s allies in Europe are in similar shape, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. Michal Strnad, owner of a Czech ammunition conglomerate, said Ukraine chews through 40,000 rounds a month, while all of the European NATO members put together can produce 300,000 a year.

“European production capacity is grossly inadequate,” Strnad said, adding that it would take up to 15 years to restock at current production rates, if the conflict were to somehow end tomorrow.

Moscow has repeatedly warned the US and its allies that shipments of increasingly modern and long-range weapons could lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, and accused the West of prolonging the conflict and causing civilian deaths in Ukraine.

While Western officials have demanded a ramp-up of production for months, recent EU legislation blocked many investments into weapons manufacturing by designating it “not sustainable,” according to the Journal. Germany is now in the process of funding a factory in Romania that could produce both NATO and Soviet-caliber ammunition for Ukraine.

The Pentagon is trying to deal with the problem by training Ukrainian troops to “fight more like Americans” and use different tactics, according to the Post.

“I think if we can train larger formations — companies, battalions — on how to employ fires, create conditions for maneuver, and then be able to maneuver like you’ve seen [the US military] maneuver on the battlefield, then I think we’re in a different place. Then you don’t need a million rounds” of artillery, a senior US official – who did not wish to be named – told the outlet.

De-Dollarization Accelerates


De-dollarization and the New Economic Order

The Biden administration’s idea of transforming the dollar and the global payment system into weapons has caused many countries and investors to actively diversify their assets away from the dollar system.

As Bloomberg reports, countries such as Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, and Laos are in talks with China to increase their use of the yuan, while Beijing and Moscow are developing joint mechanisms for mutual settlement without using the dollar, and India is promoting its rupee as a regional currency by starting to provide a bilateral payment mechanism with the United Arab Emirates.

Another reason for the flight from the dollar is its potential strengthening in the coming years due to a change in the course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Corporations around the world are selling an unprecedented amount of their debt in local currencies, fearing a further strengthening of the dollar.

As Bloomberg columnist Michel Jamrisco writes, there are increasing voices saying that the dollar is being used to “intimidate small countries.” Southeast Asian countries are therefore using this reason to trade more in local currencies, moving away from the dollar.