Аргументы и Факты

https://aif.ru/politics/world/rossiyu_hotyat_prevratit_v_moskoviyu_nikolay_patrushev_o_zapade_i_ukraine

Machine translation

What actions of the West are Moscow preparing for and what policy can be countered? This was aif.ru told by the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev .

Turbulent environment

Vitaly Tseplyaev, aif.ru: Nikolai Platonovich, how do you assess the situation in the world that has developed by the beginning of the coming year?

Nikolai Patrushev : The situation in the world is extremely complicated and has a turbulent character. Many countries of different regions are simultaneously in a military-political, economic, social and spiritual crisis. Let’s hope that this year there will be positive changes.

• You once said that the leadership of Western countries does nothing to improve the situation not only in the world, but even in their own countries. Can you explain what you’re talking about?

Western politicians do not have the strength and opportunity to change life in their states for the better, since they have not been independent figures for a long time. Everyone has connections with big business, lobbyists, foundations. They don’t even hide these facts. There are very recent examples. As it turned out, dozens of deputies of the European Parliament were controlled by the structures of JS Miller. Soros, and the European Commission, at the behest of one of the world’s largest American pharmaceutical companies, has created a number of corruption schemes for the purchase of vaccines worth tens of billions of euros. Clearly, the real power in the West lies in the hands of resourced clans and transnational corporations.

• Aren’t you referring to rockefellers and Rothschilds?

• In fact, there are many more such corporations and clans. Thus, the total income of the 500 largest companies in the world, according to unofficial data, reached almost $ 38 trillion in 2021. The bulk of multinational companies are corporations headquartered in the United States. Their revenues brought about 16 trillion dollars with a net profit of 1.8 trillion.

The capital of a number of transnational companies exceeds the GDP of most of the world’s economies, and the funds created by them for further enrichment claim to be a supranational mechanism for managing humanity. The same Soros Foundation has become almost the main world center for planning and implementing “color revolutions.”

Two actors in one play

• Do you want to say that even the US authorities do not pursue an independent policy?

In fact, the American state is only a shell for a conglomerate of huge corporations that rule the country and try to rule the world. For TNCs, even US presidents are just extras who can cover their mouths like Trump . All four assassinations of American leaders are linked to a corporate trail. It is no coincidence that a growing number of Americans claim that Republicans and Democrats are just two actors in the same play, which has nothing to do with democracy.

The American authorities, fused with big business, serve the interests of transnational corporations, including the military-industrial complex. The assertive foreign policy of the White House, the unbridled aggressiveness of NATO, the emergence of the AUCUS military bloc and others are also a consequence of corporate influence. The draft US budget for 2023 is the best proof of Washington’s plans to unleash new wars to the detriment of the well-being of its own citizens. Of the total planned federal government spending of $1.7 trillion, half is allocated to defense — more than $850 billion. Only for the continuation of hostilities in Ukraine and the prolongation of the conflict, it is planned to allocate $45 billion.

This is despite the fact that the United States itself and its henchmen are irrevocably sliding into a debt pit. For Americans, the national debt has reached more than thirty-one trillion dollars. England’s debt – 2.4 trillion pounds – was the highest since the Second World War and exceeded 101% of gross domestic product. The world record for the ratio of debt to GDP – more than 2.6 times – was set by Japan with a national debt of almost ten trillion dollars. But the countries that consider themselves the masters of the world are not going to be able to repay these debts.

Earlier, the West had prospered and achieved world domination through colonial conquests. This is how transnational companies behave today, preferring to increase their capital by pumping resources from other countries. At the same time, they use the system of dumbing down the masses to impose on the population of the planet the idea of ​​certain rules that they themselves invented and which do not comply with international law.

— So you really believe that when carrying out activities in various countries of the world, TNCs seriously affect local political and socio-economic processes?

• Right. On the one hand, through foreign direct investment, they introduce new technologies and increase labor productivity. Only that the population cannot take advantage of these results, since companies always displace the local producer, becoming monopolists. By withdrawing the main volumes of profits from abroad, they deprive countries of the opportunity to increase their national welfare.

To solve this problem, national legal regulation is not enough. The current international legal regulation of the economic activities of TNCs is formed in the interests of the corporations themselves and with their direct participation. Its change in favor of the national interests of countries is torpedoed.

In the context of fundamental changes in the world, the goal of corporations is to preserve the system of global exploitation. At its head is the elite of businessmen who do not associate themselves with any state. Under it are the so-called developed countries of the world, as well as the “golden billion”. And then there is the rest of humanity, contemptuously referred to as the “third world.”

• According to this logic, apparently, Russia is not provided with the most enviable place in this hierarchy.

• In the West, there is no place for our country. Russia irritates a handful of world rulers by the fact that it has rich resources, a huge territory, intelligent and self-sufficient people who love their country, its traditions and history.

Transnational corporations are unnerved by Russia’s ideological and ideological divergence from countries under the control of Western capital. Corporations are aimed at enriching and developing the consumer society. Russia, on the other hand, defends a reasonable correlation between spiritual and moral values ​​and socio-economic development.

In this regard, Westerners seek to weaken our country, to dismember it, to destroy the Russian language and the Russian world. They have long worked out the technology of undermining their rivals from within and splitting them into small states. This was done before, when, for example, London at the end of the First World War collapsed empires and stamped dozens of countries out of them. That’s how they work today. A prime example is Yugoslavia. A state that had an independent voice in the international arena is divided into six.

What do the events in Ukraine mean?

• At the end of December, the 100th anniversary of the formation of the USSR was celebrated. In your opinion, how did the collapse of the Union in 1991 affect the policy of the United States and its allies?

“He inspired them. In the space of the former Union, 15 new subjects of international law have emerged. Of course, none of them in terms of their level of influence can be compared with the USSR, with the exception of the Russian Federation, which, having retained its long-deserved international authority, is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, plays a crucial role in the world, defending national interests. Today, they still shout out loud that Russia should not remain united, it should be driven into the framework of Muscovy of the 15th century. To do this, they do not shy away from anything, including inventing a thoroughly false history of our country, shifting to it their responsibility for the oppression of other peoples, which Russia has never done.

The whole story with Ukraine was started in Washington in order to work out the technologies of demarcation and pitting a single people against each other. Millions of people are forbidden to speak their native language from birth. Russian language is forced to forget their origins. The West, for the sake of its ambitions, practically destroys the Ukrainian people, forcing the active generation to die on the battlefield and driving the rest of the population into poverty.

The events in Ukraine are not a clash between Moscow and Kiev, it is a military confrontation between NATO, and above all the United States and England, with Russia. Fearing direct contact, NATO instructors drive Ukrainian guys to certain death. With the help of a special military operation, Russia liberates its regions from occupation and must put an end to the bloody experiment of the West to destroy the fraternal Ukrainian people.

• “But in the world, on the contrary, Russia is accused of seizing the territory of Ukraine, attacks on its infrastructure …

“We are not at war with Ukraine, because by definition we cannot have hatred for ordinary Ukrainians. Ukrainian traditions are close to the inhabitants of Russia, just as the heritage of the Russian people is inseparable from the culture of Ukrainians. Please note that in Crimea the Ukrainian language is preserved as one of the state languages. In many cities, Ukrainian cultural centers, ensembles of Ukrainian song and dance continue to operate. In the south of the Far East, given the large proportion of immigrants since the time of Stolypin, a significant number of residents consider their native culture as being that of the Ukrainian people.

And the sooner the citizens of Ukraine realize that the West is fighting against Russia with their hands, the more lives will be saved. Many have long realized this, but are afraid to declare it, fearing reprisals. It is not the West’s plan to save anyone’s life at the expense of its enrichment and other ambitions. At the same time, Americans, British and other Europeans often create the illusion that they are protecting civilization from barbarism.

• Do you hint at the events in Afghanistan, where the United States declared a fight against terrorism, and then rather ingloriously left there?

• Not only in Afghanistan, but also in other regions. They created terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda, the Taliban movement *, to achieve their goals, and they themselves then fight them. While arranging a demonstrative elimination of terrorist leaders, like Osama bin Laden, a hundred new ones were trained and armed.

The US presence in Afghanistan turned out not to be a fight against terrorism, but the creation of multimillion-dollar corruption schemes and a multiple increase in drug production. The sudden withdrawal of the Americans from this country, as it turned out, was largely due to focusing on Ukraine, where, according to their estimates, the preparation of the Kiev puppet regime for offensive anti-Russian actions was successful. By the way, this was confirmed by US Secretary of State Blinken, who said that if the US military had not left Afghanistan, Washington would not have been able to allocate so much money to Ukraine.In addition, part of the equipment removed from the Afghan land was transferred to Europe, mainly to Poland, allowing the Europeans to militarize the Kiev regime.

• On February 24 last year, Russia called the goals of the SVO just the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine. Are you still confident that these goals will be achieved?

“Neo-Nazi criminals who have been rampant in recent years in Ukraine will inevitably be punished. However, it is possible that the most odious will try to save their curators for use in other countries, including for organizing coups d’état and performing sabotage tasks.

Such a scheme was worked out during the defeat of Nazi Germany. After 1945, the Americans, the British and the West German authorities under their control reported on the denazification of their zone of occupation of Germany, while the Nazis rescued from punishment were used to create the armed forces of the Federal Republic of Germany, as well as an agent network of American and British intelligence, including for covert operations against the countries of the socialist camp.

The CIA, which until 1948 was called the Office of Strategic Services of the United States, actively used former employees of the Abwehr and the Reich Security Directorate of Hitler’s Reich to create new German special services.

In the postwar years, the Americans actively involved Nazi criminals in the development of new types of weapons, including weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. The same applies to the use by the Americans and Japanese war criminals who developed and used chemical and bacteriological weapons.

“The potential of mankind is far from being exhausted”

• Let’s return to the topic of the influence of transnational corporations on the policies of different countries. You claim that it is almost limitless. And what methods do you think there are in the arsenal of TNCs?

• These methods are the most cynic. One of them is experiments with dangerous pathogens and viruses in military biological laboratories under the supervision of the Pentagon. Unceremoniously engage in the moral and ethical decay of society. The West has mastered the zombification of people with the help of mass propaganda, and now seeks to use cognitive weapons, influencing each person pointwise with the help of information technologies and methods of neuropsychology. It imposes neoliberal and other values, some of which are inherently directly opposite to human nature.They act consciously and do not hide in their circle that the LGBT agenda is a tool for gradually reducing the number of “extra people” who do not fit into the framework of the notorious “golden billion”. Yesterday, GMOs were advertised, not caring about what the health consequences of such products will have, and today they urge women not to have children in order to combat climate change. Overseas science proposes to evaluate people by the amount of carbon they leave behind. They measure and count humanity in the same way that Nazi scientists once measured skulls in search of criteria for separating “higher” and “lower races”.

• It’s a pretty grim picture. As if the end of humanity is just around the corner…

The potential of mankind is far from exhausted. There are structures that are designed to influence this situation in a positive way. These are the UN and the UN Security Council. Such associations as the SCO, BRICS, ASEAN and others are becoming increasingly popular. However, the West is not interested in the effectiveness of their work. The Anglo-Saxons are obsessively trying to push the world community to the idea that these institutions have generally outlived their usefulness, and it is necessary to live by their invented rules. Those who disagree with their hegemony are labeled “rogue states,” “terrorist countries,” or states that pose a threat to national security.At the same time, Western countries do not notice that they themselves are gradually remaining in the minority, since the world is already tired of the strategy of force and threats they use.

Power in people

— How is the Russian leadership going to build its strategy taking into account the above problems?

“Our country is on the path of creating a strong, modern, independent economy in order to achieve economic sovereignty. Russia has all the resources for this. We need a culture of their use, a careful and masterly attitude to our treasures – not only natural, but also intangible.Russian business should be nationally oriented. Private capital, as well as the authorities, should think about the long-term development of the country.

Russia’s financial independence is important, as well as technological sovereignty. We have plenty of our own Lomonosov and Kulibin. The problem is to notice them in time. It is necessary not only to develop science and education, but to revive the real cult of the scientist, engineer, worker. The younger generation should be inspired by the ideas of creative work for the benefit of our Motherland, and not sit in the offices of Western corporations.

The invincible strength of Russia lies in our hardworking people, whose advantage lies, among other things, in different views on life, in their multinationality and multi-confessionality. It is important to understand that we have a unique and distinctive culture, that Russia is not Europe, not Asia and certainly not an “anti-West”. This, by the way, is our fundamental difference. For a Russian person, hatred, by definition, cannot be a unifying principle. Only Westerners, who openly call us adversaries, are full of hatred. But they need to be reminded of their unsuccessful military operations in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and other countries. In the context of the emergence of new military threats, it is important for us to have such armed and special services so that Russia’s opponents do not even think that they can fight with us.

by Egon Von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history.

These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades.

The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.

The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.

If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.

More about these risks later in the article.

There is also a summary of my market views for 2023 and onwards at the end of the article.

CURIOSITY AND RISK

With a business life of over 52 years in banking, commerce and investments, I am fortunate to still learn every day and learning is really the joy of life. But the more you learn, the more you realise how little you really know.

Being a constant and curious learner means that life is never dull.

As Einstein said:

“The important thing is not to stop questioning.

Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”

There has been another important constancy in my life which is understanding and protecting RISK.

I learnt early on in my commercial life that it is critical to identify risk and endeavour to protect the downside. If you can achieve that, the upside normally takes care of itself.

Sometimes the risk is so clear that you want to stand on the barricades and shout. But sadly most investors are driven by greed and seldom see when markets become high risk.

The end of the 1980s was such an obvious period, especially in the property market. Stocks crashed in 1987 but if you are not leveraged, stock crashes normally don’t wipe you out. But in commercial property the leverage can kill a lot of investors and sadly did in the early 1990s.

The end of the 1990s was another period of very high risk in the tech sector. I was involved with a tech business in the UK and told the founder in late 1999 that we must sell the business for cash. This was the time when tech businesses were valued at 10x sales. Virtually none of them made a profit. So we managed to sell the business in 2000. We actually got shares as payment but were allowed to sell them immediately which we did. Thereafter the Nasdaq crashed by 80% and many businesses went bankrupt.

At those particular moments of extreme overvaluation, you do not have to be clever in order to get out and take profit. Super profits should always be realised when the valuation of businesses doesn’t make sense and the prospects don’t look good.

RISK OF MAJOR ESCALATION OF WAR

So let’s get back to the massive risks that are hanging over the world currently.

In my estimation this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine but between the US and Russia. Russia found it unacceptable that the Minsk agreement of 2014 was not kept to. Instead, the bombing of the Donbas area continued, allegedly encouraged by the US. As Ukraine intensified the bombing, Russia invaded in Feb 2022.

I won’t go into the details here of who is at fault etc. But what is clear is that the US Neocons have a major interest for this war to escalate. For them Ukraine is just a pawn and the real enemy is Russia. Why would the US otherwise lead the initiative to sanction Russia and send weapons and money to Ukraine but send no peace keepers to Russia?

Let us just remind ourselves that ordinary people never want war. The American people doesn’t want war, nor do the Russians or Ukrainians. It is without fail always the leaders who want war. And in most countries, even in the so called democratic USA, the leaders have total power when it comes to starting a war.

Most of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. Still Europe is shooting itself in the foot by agreeing to the sanctions initiated by the US. The consequences are disastrous for Europe and especially Germany which was the economic engine of Europe. Germany is now finished as an economic power. Time will prove this.

The global economic downturn started before the Ukrainian war butthe situation has now severely deteriorated with the European economy weakening rapidly. Still, Europe is digging its own grave by sending more weapons and more money to Ukraine much of which being reported to end up in the wrong hands.

The Ukrainian leader Zelensky is skilfully inciting the West to escalate the war in order to achieve total NATO involvement.

The risk of a major escalation of the war is considerable. Russia’s main aim is for the Minsk agreement to be honoured whilst the US Neocons want to weaken Russia in a direct conflict. Major wars are often triggered by a minor event or a false flag.

The Neocons know that a defeat for the US in this conflict would be the end of the US dollar, hegemony and economy. At the same time, Russia is determined not to lose the war, whatever it takes. This is the kind of background that has a high risk of ending badly.

THE CONSEQUENCES ARE UNTHINKABLE

Since there is not a single Statesman in the West, dark forces behind the scenes are pulling the strings. This makes the situation particularly dangerous.

The risk of a nuclear war in such a situation is incalculable but still very real.

There are 13,000 nuclear warheads in the world and less than a handful of these would wipe out most of the West and a dozen, a major part of the world.

Let’s hope that the West comes to its senses. If not, the consequences are unthinkable.

FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

The other nuclear cloud which is financial will fortunately not end the world if it detonates but inflict a major global setback that could last many years, maybe decades.

I have in numerable articles and interviews outlined that the global debt expansion will end badly.

This can be illustrated in a number of pictures so let us look at two self explanatory graphs.

The first one shows how global debt has grown 75X from $4 trillion to $300T since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

The graph also shows that the world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. That sounds like a sensational figure but the explanation is simple. Derivatives were around $1.4 quadrillion over 10 years ago as reported by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) in Basel. But with some hocus-pocus they reduced the figure to $600 trillion to make it look better cosmetically. The BIS decided just to take just one side of a contract as the outstanding risk. But we all know, it is the gross risk that counts. When a counterparty fails, gross risk remains gross. So as far as I am concerned, the old base figure was still $1.4Q.

Since then derivatives have grown exponentially. Major amounts of debt are now created in the derivatives market rather then in the cash market. Also, the shadow banking system of hedge funds, insurance companies and other financial business are also major issuers of derivatives. Many of these transactions are not in the BIS figures. Thus I believe it is realistic to assume that the derivatives market has grown at least in line with debt but probably a lot faster in the last 10+ years. So the gross figure is easily in excess of $2 quadrillion today.

When the debt crisis starts in earnest which could be today or in the next 2-3 years, major defaults in derivatives will become debt as central banks print money on an unprecedented scale in a futile attempt to save the financial system. This is how debt can grow to $3Q by 2030 as the graph illustrates.

US GDP GROWTH IS ILLUSORY

The second graph shows that the US, the world’s biggest economy, is living on both borrowed time and money.

In 1970 total US debt was 1.5X GDP. Today is is 3.6X. This means that in order to achieve a nominal growth in GDP, debt had to grow 2.5X as fast as GDP.

The conclusion is simple. Without credit and printed money there would be no real GDP growth. So the growth of the US economy is an illusion manufactured by bankers and led by the private Federal Reserve Bank. As the graph above shows, GDP can only grow if debt grows at an exponential rate.

The gap between debt and GDP growth is clearly unsustainable. Still with hysterical money printing in the next few years, in an attempt to save the US financial system, the gap is likely to widen even further before it is eroded.

There is only one way for the gap to narrow which is an implosion of the debt through default, both sovereign and private. Such an implosion will also lead to all assets inflated by the debt – including bonds, stocks and property – also imploding.

Temporarily the US has achieved this illusory wealth but sadly the time is now coming when the Piper must be paid.

THE END OF THE DOLLAR

The days of the dollar as reserve currency are counted. A currency that has lost 98% in the last 50 years hardly deserves the status of a reserve currency. A combination of military might, petrodollar payments and history has kept the dollar far too strong for much too long. Since there is no immediate alternative, it is possible that the dollar temporarily will remain strong for a while as the Ukrainian conflict continues. The economies of other currencies (Euro, Pound, Yen) are clearly too weak currently to be realistic reserve currency contenders.

The days of the Petrodollar are also counted.

Major moves are now taking place between the world’s biggest energy producers (excluding the US) which will gradually end the Petrodollar system.

A GLOBAL RECIPE FOR DISASTER

But firstly let’s understand that in spite of the climate zealots, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades. Fossil fuels account for 83% of global energy.

Global growth can only be achieved with energy. Since renewables today only account for 6% and are growing very slowly, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades.

In spite of that, Western governments in Europe and the US have not only stopped investing in fossil fuels, but also closed down pipe lines, coal mines and nuclear power plants. This is of course sheer political and economic lunacy and a very rapid method to achieve a collapse of the world economy. Add to that the Russian sanctions and we have a global recipe for disaster.

Without fossil fuels, the world economy will collapse. In spite of that, political pressure has slowed down fossil fuel production substantially. As the graph shows, fossil fuel production is likely to decline by 26% by 2048. Increases in nuclear and, hydro and renewables will not compensate for that fall. The effect will be a fall in global GDP and trade. But more about the energy side in another article.

Few people understand the importance of global trade. Rome conquered many countries from Europe to Asia and Africa. But during the Roman Empire, the various economies prospered due to free trade. The Romans were clearly superior thinkers compared to current Western leaders.

MAJOR SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST

The GCC countries (Gulf Corporation Council) consist of Saudi Arabia, UAE plus a number of Gulf countries have 40% of the oil reserves in the world.

Another 40% of oil reserves belong to Russia, Iran and Venezuela all selling oil to China at a discount currently.

In addition there are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Saudi Arabia also want to join the BRICS which represents 41% of the global population and 26% of global GDP.

Finally there is the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This is a Eurasian political, economic and security organisation headquartered in China. It covers 60% of the area of Eurasia and over 30% of global GDP.

All of these organisations and countries (BRICS, GCC, SCO) are gradually going to gain global importance as the US, and Europe decline. They will cooperate both politically, commercially and financially. As energy and oil is a common denominator for these countries, they will most likely operate with the Petroyuan as their common currency for trading.

With such a powerful constellation, minor hobbyist groups like Schwab’s WEF will dwarf in significance and finally disappear as the WEF members including the political leaders lose their power and the billionaires their wealth.