What Does this Look Like 10 Years From Now?

by Simon Black via Sovereign Research

On March 2, 1629, after years of escalating tensions with his own government, King Charles I of England dissolved parliament and ordered all the politicians to go home.

He was only in the fourth year of his reign, but Charles was already a very unpopular king. One of his worst habits was frequently abusing his power and taking unilateral executive actions– raising taxes or passing new regulations– which would ordinarily require the approval of parliament.

But Charles hated going through parliament, and he routinely found ways to bypass them; often he would creatively interpret obscure passages of ancient laws as justification to do whatever he wanted.

In one instance, Charles decided that a 400+ year old law, which had first been decreed under Henry III in the early 1200s, gave him the authority to demand payment from everyone in the country making more than 40 pounds per year. It did not.

In another example, he claimed that ‘tradition’ entitled him to collect customs and duties on various imports, even though English law clearly required parliamentary approval on all imposts.

Charles also famously demanded money from wealthy merchants and banks, calling them “forced loans”. He even seized literally TONS of silver from the Royal Mint that was being stored on behalf of wealthy individuals and foreign governments.

Parliament made attempts to block Charles; when he asked for money to raise an army and go fight in the Thirty Years War (which had been raging in Europe since 1618), parliament refused. When he wanted funds to bail out a close relative in Denmark, parliament again refused him.

Sometimes their disputes even spilled into the courts, where judges had to determine the legality of the king’s taxes and regulations.

But nothing was ever settled, and no compromises reached. In fact the conflict continued to escalate, until Charles finally dissolved parliament in 1629… effectively shutting down the government.

This is an often-repeated story throughout 5,000+ years of human history; there have been countless examples of dysfunctional governments and terrible leadership that fail to reach a rational compromise over the nation’s finances.

And such examples tend to be a hallmark of a nation in decline.

In the case of Charles, he would go on to be arrested, tried, and executed, and England plunged into a civil war.

Louis XV of France, and his successor Louis XVI, also routinely fought with their parliaments over royal finances. France would soon go bankrupt and dive head-first into revolution.

These are lessons worth noting, given that the United States government is once again at the precipice of default.

The national debt now stands at nearly $31.5 trillion. This is the current statutory ‘debt ceiling’,

meaning that the Treasury Department no longer has the legal authority to borrow more money.

This means that yet another government shutdown is potentially on the table, as is a default on the national debt.

If this story sounds familiar it’s because this has already happened in recent history– in 2011. And 2013. And 2018. And 2019.

Now it’s happening again. And unsurprisingly, both sides have dug in and claim they are unwilling to negotiate their demands.

To say this is yet another humiliation for the United States is a massive understatement. The entire world can see that, not only is the US government incapable of managing its finances… but also that its politicians cannot rationally solve problems. It’s pitiful.

What I really want to focus on today, however, is the future: what do you think this problem will look like 10 years from now?

Today it’s already a terrible embarrassment… and a major problem.

The national debt is so big that, this fiscal year, the Treasury Department will spend close to $1 TRILLION just to pay INTEREST.

This is happening at a time when:

1) Interest rates are rising (which means that the government’s annual interest bill will increase)

2) The economy is slowing (so tax revenues will decrease)

3) Government spending is still outrageous, with a $1+ trillion deficit expected this fiscal year

This is a pretty disastrous scenario. And if you plot this trend line starting from where we are today, it’s easy to imagine what might happen over the next decade.

If deficits are already $1 trillion per year right now, how high will they be in a decade? If the national debt is $31.5 trillion today– roughly 120% of US GDP– how high will it be a decade from now?

It’s silly to assume that the United States can simply keep growing the national debt forever without consequence. It’s silly to assume they can run trillion dollar deficits every year without consequence.

Today those consequences are just embarrassments and minor inconveniences. Ten years from now they may be major catastrophes.

This is the entire point of having a Plan B. The future is far from certain– and it’s possible that voters finally elect competent leadership who act responsibly and arrest the nation’s decline.

And that’s a nice hope, and it would be great if it happens.

But it’s a lot more rational to focus your energy on things that you can control. And that’s a Plan B.

If your government is on a clear path to more humiliation and fiscal ruin, it makes sense to ensure you don’t have all of your eggs in one basket.

Wagner Founder Explains US Hostility

The Wagner Group scares the US because it is willing to oppose American atrocities around the world, the private military company’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on Monday, answering a question from RT.

Washington said last week that it would designate the Russian PMC as an international criminal organization, accusing it of “widespread atrocities and human rights abuses.”

“Unlike American paramilitary structures,” Prigozhin said in a written response to RT, “Wagner PMC only goes after the enemies of peace, and does not commit crimes. Of course, if you’re doing a reversal of concepts, you can make anyone look bad.”

The US is the only country to use nuclear weapons in history, and “organized wars and revolutions” in “Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Mozambique, Central Africa and so on,” Prigozhin noted, adding that in some of those countries Wagner came in and “stopped the wars with an iron fist.”

Calling the US “a powerful criminal syndicate subsisting on the money of the entire world,” Prigozhin said Wagner was “more like the vice police” in relation.

Washington “trained bandits and terrorists all over the world so that there would be unrest everywhere,” while the “fantasy island called the USA” lives in peace, he added. Used to people not fighting back or getting intimidated by name-calling, the Americans don’t know what to do with Wagner, who “looks into the eyes of the personification of world evil without fear.”

Prigozhin said the US objective is to break up Russia just as it did to the USSR, then take on China, in order to maintain its global hegemony.

The Wagner Group was originally established in 2014. Over the past year, its fighters have taken part in battles against the Ukrainian military in the Donbass. Earlier this month, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged Wagner’s role in capturing the key town of Soledar.

US authorities have accused the PMC of unspecified “human rights violations” in Syria and the Central African Republic, where Wagner helped the government against jihadist insurgents. Last month, the State Department declared Wagner an “entity of particular concern” for religious freedom in Africa, in the same category as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS).

via RT

Violent Collection of Cannon Fodder

Violent collection of cannon fodder in the Kirovograd region. Volunteers have long ended, there are only such ways to replenish the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The increasing pace and depth of conscription intakes (l iterally old men and cripples now) combined with the collapsing situation on the front lends credence to all the reports since December of just how bad casualty rates have become for the AFU. This shouldn’t be a surprise though for those who have being keeping a keen eye on the situation.

It was recently reported in the Wall Street Journal that the AFU now fires just 40,000 shells a month. This is a stunning admission because the rate was previously 5,000-6,000 shells a day, or 150,000 a month; they changed the metric to attempt to hide this fact. The RuF meanwhile has stayed consistent at around 20,000 shells a day since late Summer.

This means the Russian firepower advantage has increased from around 3:1 to an almost 19:1 rate. Add in the mobilization resolving manpower difficulties, and it’s clear why Russian successes have been developing in quick succession lately.

The battle on the Svatovo-Kremennaya front does not subside: APU officers are being taken in droves to hospitals and in black bags to morgues.

Ukraine, Forced “Mobilization” Heats Up

Forced mobilization in Ukraine: people of all ages are grabbed on the streets, without a summons, to be thrown to the slaughter under the tanks of the Russian army

Kyiv is trying to collect as much cannon fodder as possible against the backdrop of the success of the Russian army, leading the offensive on half the front.


France, Doubling the Military Financing Plan for 2024–2030

France is doubling the military financing plan for 2024–2030 to be paid by the savings from pension reform. No wonder why the French are taking to the streets in mass protest.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced the allocation of €400 billion, an astronomical amount by the standards of the country, for military spending. In fact, the situation with the distribution of funds is much more multifaceted. Moreover, an analysis of the plans of the French army shows that a sharp increase in spending was planned for a long time but was not advertised.

€400 billion is not a one-time allocation but Macron’s personal demands to parliament about the draconian military budget for 2024–2030, which will be published in the summer of 2023. The previous army funding program was adopted for the period 2019–2025.

From 2019 to 2022, Paris annually increased military spending by the same amount of €1.7 billion. And only in 2023 began a sharp increase in spending ,which is around $ 3 billion. The bottom line is that the military program for 2019–2025 initially assumed an allocation of € 295 billion, which means that a sharp increase in spending in 2024 and 2025 was planned. That is, back in 2018, France intended to build up its armed forces by the beginning of the 2020s.

Calculations show that in 2024–2030, the country will progressively increase military spending by equal amounts, as in 2019–2022.But this time we will be talking about an annual increase of €3 billion, not €1.7 billion. Thus, Macron will fulfil his promise to increase France’s military allocations by two times by 2030 compared to 2017—from €32.3 billion to €66 billion.

Such serious cost estimates require funding sources. The Macron administration followed a simple path and announced an increase in the retirement age in the country, which caused outrage and unrest among the population. The Montaigne think tank estimates that the government’s cumulative savings from raising the retirement age from 62 to 65 will amount to €18 billion by 2032. If in 2023 Russia chose the “social spending is paramount” approach, then the opposite situation turned out with France—the appetites of the military-industrial complex and generals are above all.

War Update: Russian Offensive and Western Tanks

by Aleks via bmanalysis

Strategic planning

Basics

In the following I will try to point out my predictions, how the Russian strategic planning could potentially look like. Of course, we need to keep in mind that these are ONLY ASSUMPTIONS. It could turn out totally different as well.

Well, as I wrote in most of my analysis, the Russian goal is to trigger a collapse of Ukrainian logistics, manpower supply and thereby of the armed resistance. Keep in mind. The goal is the collapse. Not to conquer every single village throughout Ukraine with frontal assaults.

Due to the gift, that Ukraine is making Russia, to not only fighting to defend every inch in Donbass, but also trying to recapture territories, Russia can fulfill its task on a huge degree solely in the eastern regions.

The Ukrainian manpower reserves are not unlimited and they are slowly but steadily reaching their end. By forcing the enemy to fight in the Donbass, Russia makes sure, that the enemy manpower gets drawn out of all the other important big cities. Like Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Nikolayev, Kherson, Odessa etc. etc.

In turn, this means, that there is a high probability, that the Russians won’t need to fight in these cities as soon as the Ukrainian army collapses.

Map

In the following I’ve created a map with five potential war theaters. I will go through all five and describe my thoughts about them.

 

Theatre 1: Artemovsk-Soledar-Seversk

Hence, Surovikin’s withdrawals, evening-out of the frontlines and the creation of a perfect firebag to destroy the enemy manpower. Artemovsk (Bakhmut). It is the most unfavourable place for Ukraine to fight. And still, Ukraine tries to defend it with everything it has, for political reasons. Otherwise, the Western public support break. Russia has short supply lines, air superiority, a friendly population and favourable positions for shelling there. One could say that the Ukrainian army is being buried in Artemovsk. There are already tens of thousands of dead and perhaps the double number of wounded. One needs to keep in mind that wounded soldiers are an even larger burden to a nation then the dead, during the time of war.

From my point of view, and as described in former analysis, Russia could have taken Artemovsk before. But there is a certain time, when it needs to be taken, to keep the stone rolling. The Russian reserves are being currently prepared for the offensive. Artemovsk mustn’t fall, before they are ready. Moreover, Artemovsk needs to kill as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible before the offensive starts. Which means in turn, that it doesn’t make any sense to take it, as long as the enemy is able to feed in troops. When the enemy starts having problems to feed in further troops, by drawing them from other important frontlines, then Ukraine is ready for the other offensive operations.

So, the requirements, that are needed to trigger the storming of Artemovsk are:

  1. Waiting for the stream pushed in troops to end.
  2. The other offensive formations of the Russian army need to be in place.

I assume this moment could be reached in February. When exactly? I don’t know. We will see.

Theatre 2: Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk

As soon as these offensive starts, I assume, that the Ukrainian defences will start to collapse, since most Ukrainian troops will be already dead or wounded. At this point the Russian army will most likely move in from Kupiansk to Izyum from the north and occupy favourable positions north and maybe even west of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

Depending on the state of resistance of the Ukrainian army there will either be a direct storming from the Artemovsk and Slovyansk grouping of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk or there will be a siege. There is no need to sacrifice troops for quick wins, since there will be more fronts, to trigger the Ukrainian collapse.

Theatre 3

Maybe simultaneously there will be a push to Ugledar and the surrounding villages from the south, to put additional pressure on the Ukrainian supply lines. Both, in material and people.

Theatre 4

As you see in my map, the theater “4” is a pretty long one.

For the time being, as I write this article, I don’t see any physical possibility, to conduct any large-scale offensive from Belarus into Ukraine. There are neither enough equipment nor the needed logistics in place. So, big arrows from Belarus are currently physically impossible.

What I assume indeed, is the following. We will see locally, not everywhere where I put a number 4 on it, but at certain places (I don’t know where) small incursions, to pin and bind the enemy at the close proximity of the border. To engage as many as possible troops, equipment and logistical effort in the north. At the same time, I assume, that we could start experiencing the start of a Russian air campaign on targets across the northern border of Ukraine. Since most air defences are currently concentrated around the critical infrastructure or already depleted, we will most likely see the new role of General Surovikin. Hammering and degrading Ukrainian resources in the north. And Ukraine will need to replace them constantly, to not open the door to Kiev.

At the same time, we could maybe see the accumulation of troops and equipment in Belarus.

This could go on maybe until the start of the summer 2023.

Here we have the same situation as in Artemovsk. As soon as the supply of troops and equipment starts ebbing down in the north, Russia can assume, that the time can be right to secure Kiev.

Requirements for a move on Kiev:

  • Complete collapse of the Donbass front.
  • Complete Collapse of the northern front.

Depending on how the political situation will be then, we could see here already a full surrender or only the moving in of Russian troops to a close proximity of Kiev. Maybe even already the start of the surrounding of Kiev.

Theatre 5

Either simultaneously with Theatre 4 or after the moving on Kiev (surrounding or prepositioning north, west and east of Kiev), we could see the opening of a fifth frontline in the south. The target would be to reach Zaporozhye city. Again, with the goal, to overstretch the Ukrainian resources and logistics.

Outlook

Again, I’m sure, Russia’s goal is to trigger a collapse, to not being forced to fight for every village up to Lvov. After these five “phases” or theaters, I assume, that we will see the collapse of Ukraine. Which will either result in a surrender, or we could simply see a drive-through of Russian forces to their desired future borders by bypassing last resistance nests. Which will need to surrender anyways after a certain time, when they get encircled far behind NATO borders.

By applying this strategy, Russia can inflict maximum damage to the Ukrainian army while sparing the own soldiers lives and the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure of big Russian cities (Odessa etc.). Which the ultimate Russian goal is.

Depending on the degree of resistance and Western escalation, we could see a surrender of Kiev the earliest in Summer 2023. The latest? This is impossible to say. If Russia needs to drive through Ukraine, encircling big cities and force them without violence to surrender, this could drag on for another two years. Who knows? And of course, there is still the question of manpower. As in my analysis of phase 3 described, Russia would need to mobilise further troops, if being forced to take Ukraine without their surrender. Not for the fighting itself, but simply for occupation and securing rear areas (counter insurgency etc.), of this large country.

Arms deliveries and Scorched Earth

There are ever more reports of deliveries of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as artillery to Ukraine by NATO. Of course, there are.

Of course, we will go through all escalation steps in terms of arms deliveries, until this war concludes.

The West is following a strategy of scorched earth in Ukraine. It is absolutely clear to everyone, that it is only a question of time, when Ukraine will fall as a whole. All are aware that this will most likely happen this year. So, the task is, to inflict as much comprehensive and sustainable damage to Russia as possible during the process. With a huge success of course. See my article about that here.

Ukraine, or the biggest parts of it, will be part of Russia again. Some parts might go to Poland, Hungary and Romania by agreement with Russia. And some part will maybe be released into pseudo independence after being denazifyed and demilitarised. But in fact, Russia is killing currently “en mass” its future citizens and the base for further development. Of course, the Ukrainian soldiers of today will be Russian soldiers of tomorrow, as well. And as more infrastructure is damaged as more Russia will need to invest to rebuild. At least in parts, that will go to Russia.

Therefore, it needs to be ensured, by NATO, that the whole male able-bodied potential will be used, to fight Russia. In the best case everyone dies. Remember, these are future Russian citizens and soldiers. That’s why the West will never ever negotiate an end. Russia by the way won’t do it as well, since all of Ukraine will be captured, denazifyed and demilitarised. Except maybe the parts, that will go to other states under a mutual agreement.

Well, as far as I am aware off, Ukraine ran out of heavy weapons. And it won’t be able to further keep up the fight, without heavy weapons. First, physically, second morally. If the Ukrainians could only throw their bodies against Russian tanks, then there would be a mass surrender.

One would think, these western supplied tanks will be needed for offensive operations. But no-one thinks about offensives anymore. It is more, to preposition these tanks etc. on positions, where Russian offensives will be expected. To prepare ambushes and fire traps for the incoming Russian troops. Similar to what happened in phase 1. The West will supply in any phase, as long as human potential exists, to react to the challenges of the given time/phase/theater.

Conclusion

As of now, Ukraine lost the war. I would say, the day the defensive line in Soledar breached and the new command structure was announced, is the day, Ukraine lost the war officially. Now we need to go through the mop up, which will bring, unfortunately for both sides, horrendous losses in human lives and equipment.

Unfortunately, fascist regimes, or their non-fascist backers tend to sacrifice their whole population before the world can back peace. It was like that in World War 2, and now we have the same shit over again.

FAA Quietly Indicates that US Pilots’ Hearts Are Damaged After Taking Vaccines

via Steve Kirsch

A report from the FAA admits that the EKG’s of Pilots are no longer normal. This report has been hidden by the FAA.

Steve Kirsh released a report today where he shares some very, very disturbing information about the health of Americans and pilots flying us all around the world.

According to Kirsch:

After the vaccine rolled out, the FAA secretly widened the EKG parameter range for pilots so they wouldn’t be grounded. It looks like the vax gave at least 50M Americans heart damage.

Kirsch shares:

In the October 2022 version of the FAA Guide for Aviation Medical Examiners, the FAA quietly widened the EKG parameters beyond the normal range (from a PR max of .2 to unlimited). And they didn’t widen the range by a little. They widened it by a lot. It was done after the vaccine rollout.

This is extraordinary. They did it hoping nobody would notice. It worked for a while. Nobody caught it.

But you can’t hide these things for long.

This is a tacit admission from the US government that the COVID vaccine has damaged the hearts of our pilots. Not just a few pilots. A lot of pilots and a lot of damage.

The cardiac harm of course is not limited to pilots.

My best guess right now is that over 50M Americans sustained some amount of heart damage from the shot.

That’s a lot of people who will be very upset when they realize the vaccine they took to reduce their chance of dying from COVID actually worked in reverse making it:
More likely that people will get COVID
Be hospitalized from COVID and other diseases
Die from COVID (and other diseases)
You also have an excellent chance of getting a lifetime of heart damage for no extra charge.

But don’t worry; you can’t sue them. They fixed the law so none of them aren’t liable (the doctors, the drug companies, the government). After all, you took the vaccine of your own free will. It’s not like you were forced (or coerced) to take it or anything like that! And there were plenty of people warning you not to take the shots (even though they censored most of them).

Is this why so many great athletes who are in incredible good shape are suddenly dropping during games around the world?

Medvedev Warns Russia’s Defeat In Ukraine Would Mean Nuclear War

via Zero Hedge

Outspoken former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the security council Dmitry Medvedev has issued his latest stark warning to the West on Thursday, saying that if Russia is on the brink of defeat, nuclear war is likely to follow. He made the comments in a post on the Telegram messaging app. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,” he began.

“Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends,” the former president, who in prior years had actually been seen as more dovish when compared to Putin, added. Medvedev’s comments came in reaction to news of a major meeting of Western defense leaders set for Friday at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

Image via AP

“Tomorrow, at NATO’s Ramstein base, the great military leaders will discuss new tactics and strategies, as well as the supply of new heavy weapons and strike systems to Ukraine,” he wrote.

The meeting in Germany is expected to involve military commanders and officials from some 50 countries, the bulk of them being from NATO, and will seek to gain consensus on moving forward in terms of military and strategic support for Ukraine.

Central to the discussion will be whether or not to provide heavy tanks and longer range missile systems, and there’s also the question of aircraft, given Zelensky’s persistent request to help “close the skies”.

According to at least one prominent international outlet, the Kremlin has backed Medvedev’s ultra-provocative nuclear remarks as Western allies gear up for the Friday meeting:

The Kremlin was quick to endorse Medvedev’s remarks, saying they were in full accordance with Moscow’s principles.

Moscow’s doctrine allows for a nuclear attack after “aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened”.

Medvedev hasn’t been shy about raising the specter of nuclear Armageddon throughout much of the 11-month conflict. He typically gives voice to the Kremlin’s ‘worst case’ – or most escalatory – way of thinking in response to the West escalation. His words often represent the ‘big stick’ approach from Moscow’s point of view.

Backward political good-timers in Davos reiterated: “To achieve peace, Russia must lose”. None of them gets it that a nuclear power’s loss of a conventional war can lead to a nuclear one. Nuclear powers haven’t been defeated in major conflicts crucial for their destiny

— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) January 19, 2023

Regardless of these fresh severe warnings, there’s growing consensus among Western powers that Ukraine needs heavy tanks. At the moment, all eyes are on Washington and Berlin, also while new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius takes his post:

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has said Berlin remains one of Washington’s most important allies at his first meeting with his new German counterpart before crunch talks on supplying German-made tanks to Ukraine.

“I’d like to thank the German government for all that it has done to strengthen Ukraine’s self-defense,” Austin said at the start of his talks with Boris Pistorius.

Additionally NATO’s Jen Stoltenberg said Thursday when speaking about the Ukraine war, “weapons are the way to peace.”

Calling things “Orwellian” is a bit of a cliche. But come on. This is like “Orwell for Dummies” https://t.co/dJvsgNRrQN

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) January 19, 2023

It’s increasingly looking like whatever comes out of the Ramstein meeting on Friday will determine the future course of the war – and whether de-escalation is at all possible at this point, given the mood among NATO allies definitely suggests they are gearing up for a bigger fight.

Meanwhile, the mood in Moscow

⚡️Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems being placed on the roof of building in Moscow.

Is this the plan? pic.twitter.com/FLA96HXxrP

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) January 19, 2023

Seems the Kremlin is getting nervous.
In Moscow a Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile system was put on the roof of 8 Teterynskyi Lane. pic.twitter.com/JasZ2WpYh7

— Robert van der Noordaa (@g900ap) January 19, 2023

80 Years Ago: How Leningrad Survived

By Anatoliy Brusnikin, Russian historian and journalist

Saint Petersburg, then Leningrad, was the scene of one of the bloodiest and most tragic episodes of the Second World War.

Nazi Germany’s siege of Russia’s former capital lasted 872 days, claiming the lives up to a million civilians and about half-a-million soldiers. Eighty years ago, in a colossal military effort, a breach was made in the blockade of the city: Operation Iskra opened a narrow, bare, exposed, but nevertheless operational land corridor from the ‘mainland.’

This was the first relatively successful attempt to break through the Nazi lines after four catastrophic failures over the previous years. The success of the operation was incredibly important, but the victory took such a toll and is associated with so much indescribable grief and destruction that, even in Russia, it is recalled very rarely.

Superfluous city

According to Germany’s plan for the Eastern Front, the initial task of Army Group North was to capture Leningrad by mid-September 1941. This turned out to be impossible. The mobilization of the civilian population to build defensive lines to the south of the city (mostly women, as men were either employed in factories or went to the front) and the stubborn resistance put up by the Red Army prevented the Germans from taking it by storm. Not wanting to waste time and effort on the ‘doomed’ city, as it seemed at the time, Franz Halder, chief of staff of the Nazi ground forces, convinced Adolf Hitler to move tanks and mechanized units towards Moscow, and leave Leningrad under blockade.

It was assumed that, after a hungry and cold winter, its defenders would no longer have the strength to resist. The city would be captured and razed to the ground, and all the lands to the north of the Neva River, which flows through the city into the Baltic Sea, would be given to the Germans’ Finnish allies, who were securing their blockade sector. In encircling the city, the last railway line was cut near the Mga station on August 29, 1941, just two months and one week after the war began. September 8 saw the capture of Shlisselburg, 12km to the north on Lake Ladoga at the source of the Neva River. Supplies could potentially have been transported from here to Leningrad. The blockade of the northern capital is counted from this date.

Almost immediately after it was founded by Emperor Peter I in 1703, Saint Petersburg became Russia’s main commercial port and naval base. Wide avenues, cathedrals, the stunning beauty of the palaces of the imperial family and other nobles, as well as drawbridges over the wide Neva River, still remain a reminder of Russia’s grand history. But by the end of the 19th century, the city had also become the country’s main manufacturing center, retaining its industrial significance even after the Bolsheviks, who came to power in 1918, moved the capital to Moscow. In addition, both Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin recognized the city’s ideological importance, since it was here that the first socialist revolution had taken place, and the city itself had been renamed in honor of the leader of the global proletariat, Vladimir Lenin.

FILE PHOTO. Vladimir Lenin delivers a speech during a rally marking the opening of the Second Congress of the Communist International. Petrograd, July 19, 1920. Photographed by V.K. Bulla. A reproduction. © Sputnik

Thus, by wiping Leningrad off the face of the Earth, Hitler would be able to destroy large Soviet industrial and military plants (there were over 300 in the city), make the Baltic Sea safe for German shipping, capture a powerful merchant fleet, and move further towards Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, thus paralyzing supplies coming in via the Lend-Lease scheme, agreed with the US. Finally, and most importantly, Hitler was going to expel the ‘Asians’ from Europe and demoralize his communist opponent, depriving them of the cradle of their revolution.

Hell on ice

Due to the Red Army’s disastrous start to the war and the general chaos in the country’s administration, Leningrad was absolutely unprepared for the siege. It was impossible to carry out a fully fledged evacuation of the city’s three million residents along just two railway lines in a relatively short time, and military enterprises were evacuated first.

Children were also sent away to protect them from bombing and artillery shelling. However, Leningrad’s youngest residents were not taken inland, but to suburbs and villages near the city, from which most of them soon returned.

No significant stocks of food had been created, and warehouses had been destroyed by German aircraft on September 8-10, when the blockade was established. By October, rations for residents who neither worked in factories nor fought in trenches had already been reduced to a catastrophic 125 grams of bread per day, and real famine set in as early as November. Cases of cannibalism were recorded and investigated in the city during the entire period of the siege, their number entering the hundreds. However, given the inhuman conditions in which millions of Leningraders found themselves, this is not as unconscionable as it may seem.

Of course, the situation was aggravated by the cold. The winter of 1941 turned out to be the chilliest in recorded history. The average daily temperature had already dropped to 0°C by October 11 and did not rise above freezing until April 7. Fuel reserves in the northern capital quickly ran out, and the electricity supply fell to 15% of the pre-war level. The central heating was turned off, and sewage and water supply systems froze. People put small cast-iron stoves in their apartments and heated them with everything they had, including furniture, flooring, wallpaper, and books.

FILE PHOTO. Besieged Leningrad townsfolk leave the bomb shelter after attack over, 10.12.1942. Leningrad, Russia. © Sputnik/Boris Kudoyarov

The months of the first winter were the bleakest. People died from cold and exhaustion at home, at work, and on the streets. Many just sat down to rest and never got up again. In February, special teams removed over 1,000 bodies a day from the streets. According to official statistics presented at the Nuremberg trials, bombing and shelling killed a total of 17,000 people, while the famine planned by the Germans (their commanders were forbidden to accept refugees from the city), along with the cold, took the lives of another 632,000. Meanwhile, 332,000 soldiers perished. However, modern researchers tend to believe that these statistics are underestimated, partly due to the fact that Stalin probably didn’t want to take responsibility for a catastrophe of this magnitude or show weakness in front of former allies with whom the Cold War was already brewing.

Survivors of genocide

Imagine: You wake up in the only warm room of a huge Leningrad apartment. All movement is difficult; your head is foggy due to hunger. You don’t need to get dressed, as you’ve slept in a padded jacket. You drink leftover water from a bucket taken from the well yesterday. You wrap yourself up more tightly and set off for your factory halfway across the city – public transport stopped working long ago. Supplementary nutrition is organized at the factory; it gives you a chance to survive. In the hallway, a smell hits your nose – a corpse lies under the stairs, for the third day – you don’t want to look. On the way to work, you meet people hauling sleds laden with the bodies of their relatives. They weave their way between snowdrifts and stationary trolleybuses so they can bury the dead. But none of this evokes any emotion anymore – during the endless months of this winter, about a million people have perished around you. You have already lost all hope – you live on autopilot and know this fate could soon befall you as well. Hundreds of thousands of people went through this and kept the trauma in their memory, although they preferred not to voice their recollection of all the horrors.

In terms of brutality, scale, and planning, the siege of Leningrad is quite comparable to the most infamous acts of genocide, including the ‘final solution of the Jewish question,’ as the Germans were fully aware of the consequences of their actions. And while, for a number of reasons, the Soviet leadership failed to draw attention to this, including in the international arena, in October of 2022, the Saint Petersburg City Court finally called a spade a spade and recognized the siege as genocide.

“Just recently, the blockade of Leningrad was also recognized as an act of genocide. It was high time to do it. By organizing the blockade, the Nazis purposefully sought to destroy the Leningraders – everyone from children to the elderly. This is also confirmed, as I have already said, by their own documents,” Vladimir Putin noted in November 2022. Though Russia’s current president was born ten years after the Leningrad blockade was finally broken, his family was directly affected by this tragedy.

FILE PHOTO. A woman standing by corpses and coffins , 01.02.1943, in Leningrad, Russia. © Sputnik

At the beginning of the blockade, the one-and-a-half-year-old son of Vladimir Putin’s mother, Maria Ivanovna, was taken away for evacuation, but he never made it out of the city. According to the official account, the child, Viktor, died of an illness. The only notification his mother received about this was a death certificate. As the Russian leader himself said, she only managed to survive due to the fact that her husband, Putin’s father, had been wounded at the front and received augmented rations, which he passed on to his wife during her daily visits to the hospital. This continued until he fainted from hunger, and the doctors, who understood what was happening, forbade further visits. After leaving the hospital on crutches with a shattered leg, he nursed his wife, who had stopped walking from weakness. Vladimir Spiridonovich had fought on the Neva Bridgehead.

Attacking over comrades’ corpses

According to the memoirs of Georgy Zhukov, who repulsed an attempt to storm Leningrad in September-October 1941, Stalin initially considered the city’s situation nearly hopeless and was more focused on saving Moscow. But the desperate resistance of the city’s defenders, the steadfast perseverance of its inhabitants, and later the heroism of the brigades that transported scarce food supplies to Leningrad in trucks and carts along the city’s sole lifeline – the ‘Road of Life’ established on the ice of Lake Ladoga – forced the Bolshevik leader to change his mind. At that point, he began to demand that his military leaders break through the defense by any means and as soon as possible. The impatience of the Georgian, who had had the leadership of the Western Front shot just two months before, led to a number of hasty and ill-prepared attempted to break the blockade.

What was the German ‘wedge’ that penetrated to Lake Ladoga and cut Leningrad off from the rest of the country? It was a low-lying 15kmx15km area consisting mostly of woods and peat bogs, but in its very center was a hill on which the village of Sinyavino stood. To the west, the site was bounded by the wide (about 500 meters) Neva River, behind which the defending troops of the Leningrad Front were positioned. To the east was the Volkhov Front; to the north, the shores of Lake Ladoga; and to the south, the main part of Germany’s Army Group North.

During Stalin’s industrialization of the 1930s, a large condensing power plant had been built on the banks of the Neva River. Peat was dug from the marshes to provide fuel. Workers lived in several scattered villages connected by dirt roads and narrow-gauge railways. In the north, there was the ancient fortress city of Shlisselburg; in the south, deep behind the German lines, was a railway junction at the Mga station. The attempts to break the siege of Leningrad are conventionally called the Sinyavino Offensives.

FILE PHOTO. The 2nd Sinyavinsky operation. Soldiers pulling camouflaged tanks on muddy roads, Leningrad, January 11, 1941. © Sputnik

The first Sinyavino operation began literally the day after the blockade was established, on September 9, 1941. It turned into two weeks of counter-fighting between Marshal Grigory Kulik’s newly formed 54th Army, consisting of recruits and retreating units moving from the east, and German forces trying to break through to the Svir River to meet Finnish troops. Had the Wehrmacht managed to accomplish this, there would have been no question of any ‘Road of Life’, and Leningrad would definitely not have survived the siege. From the points of view of Stalin, Chief of the General Staff Shaposhnikov, and Zhukov, who commanded the encircled Leningrad Front, the operation was an immediate failure. Enraged, Zhukov even decided to act independently and gave an order to force a crossing of the Neva from the west. In the vicinity of Shlisselburg, the landing forces were destroyed, but another attempt 12km to the south, on a narrow river bend, was more successful, and the Neva Bridgehead, where Putin’s father fought, was formed.

The Neva Bridgehead was constantly changing in size, with a width of up to 2km and a depth of about 800 meters. Although the relative narrowness of the river allowed boats to bring in reinforcements, albeit over icy water and under constant shelling (one in five made it), the bank itself was absolutely unsuitable for staging a further offensive. From the north, it was bounded by the huge power plant, which the Germans quickly turned into a fortress. From the east, it abutted two sand pits, through which it was impossible to launch an attack or conduct maneuvers. The bridgehead was under constant fire from enemy artillery and machine guns. However, this did not stop the generals – they demanded frontal attacks and successes that they could report to Stalin.

Between September 19, 1941 and April 29, 1942, and September 26, 1942 and February 17, 1943, countless regiments and divisions cycled through the bridgehead, and over 50 hopeless attempts were made to advance towards Sinyavino and Mga to breach enemy lines. In 1941 alone, during the first and second Sinyavino operations, at least 68,000 people died on this small piece of land. It was nearly impossible to evacuate wounded soldiers, let alone corpses, across the river. When bodies were buried, they were buried right there, sometimes more than once, since incessant artillery fire (up to 50,000 shells, grenades, and aerial bombs per day) kept churning up the earth and exposing dead bodies. Winter temperatures made it impossible to dig pits in frozen ground, and frozen corpses were used instead of logs to reinforce trench walls or shelter roofs and make loopholes.

“All of that against the constant backdrop of our and German artillery fire, the unmistakable smell of mortar shell explosive, the repulsive sound of German ground-attack planes, the moans of the wounded, and the swearing of the living, who were cursing the Germans, the war, this wretched bridgehead, and sometimes our gunners if they were firing on our own positions,” according to Yuri Poresh, a soldier who survived the fighting.

FILE PHOTO. Soldiers of the 168th Infantry Division of Colonel Andrei Bondarev during the Battle of Leningrad, Nevsky Pyatachok, Leningrad, May 11, 1941. © Sputnik/Vsevolod Tarasevich

It is estimated that the average combat utility of a soldier on the Neva Bridgehead was 52 hours, after which he was either killed or wounded, left facing the prospect of a challenging evacuation. Vladimir Putin senior, who had had his heel and ankle shattered by a grenade, had to swim across the river and was only able to make it to the right bank with the help of a comrade-in-arms.

The scale of suicidal losses suffered in this area was not properly recognized until after the war. Back then, thoughts were focused on saving Leningrad from the disastrous siege.

The Birth of a Traitor

Fighting at the Sinyavino wedge was no walk in the park for the Germans either. They had to repel countless waves of Soviet attacks from two opposite directions. Continuous artillery fire soon obliterated almost every tree in that spot, so all Wehrmacht soldiers could see from their fortified positions, especially from the Sinyavino heights, were swamps, which never froze even in winter, scarred by heavy artillery fire, laid with mines, and littered with the corpses of Red Army infantry soldiers with an occasional burnt tank here and there. Further south, at the entrance to the Demyansk Pocket, whose defense by the Germans was closely linked to the defense of the Sinyavino wedge, there was a handmade road sign which said, in German: “Welcome to hell.” The Germans must have been thinking similar thoughts about Sinyavino, which looked like something out of Hieronymus Bosch’s disturbing paintings.

After victory near Moscow, followed by a counteroffensive, Stalin demanded again that the siege be lifted, which led to the notorious Lyuban offensive operation that took place between January 7 and July 10, 1942. Its purpose was to cut off the whole of the Sinyavino wedge south of Mga and, by doing so, not only relieve the siege of Leningrad but also seize the strategic initiative in the north. Created specifically for this operation, the 2nd Shock Army succeeded in breaking through German defenses. However, due to the lack of roads, adequate supplies, and sufficient reinforcements, as well as the incompetence of Mikhail Khozin, the commander of the Leningrad Front, it was forced to halt its advance before being gradually encircled and destroyed. On April 20, almost by accident, Andrey Vlasov, a hero of the Battle of Moscow and one of the generals Stalin respected the most, was put in charge of the 2nd Shock Army to relieve its ailing commander.

By then, the army was all but doomed. When the high command finally allowed the army to retreat, it was too late, as the encirclement had been completed. After giving his last orders, Vlasov attempted to escape on his own, as he had done near Kiev in the summer of 1941, but was captured and identified. He would go on to lead the collaborationist Russian Liberation Army and become the epitome of a traitor. A total of approximately 350,000 soldiers and officers perished in the disastrous operation.

FILE PHOTO. World War II. Soviet General Andrey Vlasov during manoeuvres of Russian volunteers’ training, 1943. © Roger Viollet via Getty Images

Last setbacks

A month later, in late August 1942, the Red Army began the 3rd Sinyavino operation in another attempt to lift the siege. This time, the Leningrad Front was in the hands of Leonid Govorov, a much more capable general and a meticulous artillery officer. The commander of the Volkhov Front was Kirill Meretskov, an experienced general who had fought in Spain and been tasked with penetrating the Mannerheim Line in the Winter War. Up against them was Georg Lindemann’s German 18th Army, which included, among other units, the 250th Blue Division of Spanish volunteers.

However, given the local landscape, the mission still looked nearly impossible to accomplish. “Soldiers had to build fences out of wood and dirt instead of digging trenches for their fighting positions and living quarters. Instead of foxholes, they piled earth to build open platforms, laid log roads for many kilometers, and constructed wooden platforms for artillery guns and mortars… The vast peat bogs stretching from the banks of Lake Ladoga all the way to Sinyavino and, south of Sinyavino, the dense woods with large swamps, almost impenetrable even for the infantry, were severely limiting the troops’ maneuverability and created more advantages for the defending side,” Meretskov later wrote.

The new attempt, which had been planned much more thoroughly, called for several waves of advancing troops supported by heavy artillery fire and flame tanks to destroy enemy fortifications. The operation could have been a success but, in August, the Germans were reinforced by the 11th Army, which had emerged victorious from the bloody Battle of Sevastopol. It was led by Erich von Manstein, one of Hitler’s top generals.

Von Manstein was initially expected to replicate his Crimean success in Leningrad. However, as the situation near Sinyavino was beginning to look increasingly dire, the German leadership told him to check the Russian offensive, which he did. It looked like another setback for the Red Army, which lost over 100,000 people, 40,000 of whom were irrecoverable casualties, yet it succeeded in averting the Wehrmacht’s attack on Leningrad and weakened the 11th Army so that later, when it was sent to Stalingrad, it failed to break the encirclement around Paulus’ doomed 6th Army.

FILE PHOTO. Fritz Erich Georg Eduard von Manstein (R),German Field Marshal of the Wehrmacht during the Second World War. © Ullstein bild/Ullstein bild via Getty Images

The spark that burned through armor

The 3rd Sinyavino operation allowed Govorov and Meretskov to gain a better understanding of the terrain and enemy capabilities. Stalin suggested that the next operation should be codenamed Iskra, or “Spark” (the idea being that it would finally set the siege ablaze). What set the fifth attempt at lifting the siege apart from the previous efforts was the meticulous planning that went into it and the special training the troops received.

For example, soldiers practiced crossing the Neva at spots inside the city where the enemy could not observe them. Artillery fire was supposed to take out all of the enemy’s firing positions on the left bank. To achieve that, one of the soldiers, who was a painter before the war, came to the frontlines several nights in a row and carefully examined the German defenses before returning to the headquarters and depicting everything he had seen and committed to memory on a canvas four meters wide. The picture was then used for reference by artillery officers.

Logs held together by metal spikes were initially intended to help medium and heavy tanks to traverse the river. After the first two tanks sank during practice, it became clear that the wooden “rails” had to be given about 24 hours to become stuck to the ice before they could be used. Figuring out such nuances, combined with the surprise factor, was instrumental in ensuring the success of the operation.

Attacking from the west along the southern bank of Lake Ladoga was the 67th Army under the command of Mikhail Dukhanov, who began his military service before the revolution as a pontonier. Moving from the east was the unfortunate 2nd Shock Army, now put together for a third time, led by Vladimir Romanovsky. It numbered 164,000 men and had received a significant boost in terms of armor and artillery. Just two months prior, only 4,600 troops remained after defeat in the 3rd Sinyavino operation. It was in this army’s sector that the Germans’ defenses were exceptionally formidable. They built several lines of fighting positions linked by pairs of walls made of earth and wood with water poured over them to make them icy. There was a total of over 400 emplacements for artillery and machine guns complete with minefields in front of and between them.

Ivan Fedyuninsky, deputy commander of the Volkhov Front, who was made responsible for the overall coordination of Operation Iskra, had 302,000 men under his command, five times the size of the German troops at Sinyavino. The first stage called for creating a land connection to Leningrad, the second phase was aimed at capturing Mga, a vital communications node, to establish a railway link with Russia’s central regions.

FILE PHOTO. Infantry in attack after a massive artillery preparation, 01.02.1944, Leningrad, Russia. © Sputnik

Breakthrough at last

The operation was initially planned for early December. However, since the Neva was slow to freeze due to a relatively mild winter, the offensive was postponed by a month. On January 12, 1943, after an aerial bombing attack at dawn and two hours of artillery barrage, the two fronts began advancing towards each other through a 12km-wide corridor. Significant headway was made in the west, where the blow, contrary to the Germans’ expectations, was delivered not at, but to the north of, the Neva Bridgehead. The advancing troops secured a position on the left bank of the Neva measuring 6km by 3km on the very first day.

Achievements in the east were more modest. Over the next four days, the advance slowed and turned into trench warfare. The Red Army stormed German fortifications in the workers’ villages as the Wehrmacht sent in reinforcements. Those days saw the first deployment of the Tiger. One of those heavy tanks, which were still a rarity, was captured and carefully studied, which allowed Soviet and Allied armored soldiers to identify its vulnerabilities and learn how to deal with it effectively.

At last, on the morning of January 18, advance units of the two fronts met south of Workers’ Village No. 5, located on the railway line connecting Sinyavino and Schlisselburg, repelled a German counterattack, and broke into the fortified village itself by midday. Realizing the urgency of the situation, the German command ordered the Schlisselburg garrison to leave, with about 8,000 soldiers and officers successfully escaping from the encirclement. By January 20, a land corridor about 10km wide running south of Lake Ladoga had been cleared of enemy forces, which dug in at the Sinyavino Heights. Further attempts, which lasted until April, to dislodge them were just as bloody as they were futile, meaning Operation Iskra failed to reach its second objective. The Germans left Sinyavino a year later, in January 1944, as part of their widescale retreat.

That did not matter much to the survivors in Leningrad so long as the horrible siege was over at last. The construction of a railroad running through the corridor – which had to be constructed in clear view of Sinyavino and could be reached by German artillery fire – began immediately on January 18. It took just 17 days to build a 33km stretch working only after nightfall in freezing temperatures, upon which the Road of Victory was used to deliver supplies to Leningrad and evacuate survivors. Russia’s northern capital and the cradle of the Bolshevik Revolution was saved.

China Castigates US for Stealing Oil from Syria

US theft of Syrian oil exacerbates the energy and humanitarian crisis in the war-torn Middle Eastern country, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a briefing on Tuesday.

“According to Syrian government data, in the first half of 2022, over 80% of Syria’s daily oil output was smuggled out of the country by US occupation troops <…> Such banditry is aggravating the energy crisis and humanitarian disaster in Syria. The Syrian people’s right to life is being ruthlessly trampled on by the US,” the diplomat said.

“The US must answer for its oil theft. The Syrian people and the international community deserve an answer. We urge the US to stop trampling on international rule of law and breaking international rules,” Wang Wenbin emphasized.

Most parts of the Syrian provinces of Deir Ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasakah in the country’s east and northeast are under the control of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) backed by the US. According to Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen TV channel, the US-led Western coalition assists the Kurdish autonomous administration in setting up production at mothballed wells.

According to the news outlet, this is done in order to create an economic base with subsequent oil sales. Damascus views America’s military presence on Syrian soil as an illegal occupation of the country.

via TASS