by Claudiu Secara

I see no solution for the US in its foregone predicament – Trump or no Trump.

If the US continues on the path of trade imbalance as of now, it can continue enjoying its lifestyle for another generation as it goes on selling its assets one by one, land, real estate, art collections, gold, etc. It would face the same historical transition as happened in nineteenth-century Europe when the emerging bourgeoisie capitalized on its hard work and savings and replaced the la dolce vita landed aristocracy.

This is well illustrated by at least two classic pieces of literature, The Cherry Orchard by Chekhov and The Leopard, by Lampedusa. Nothing new to see here.

The other option that the US has is to raise tariffs and other trade barriers against the countries that are overtaking its domestic production, and retreat as a standalone economy. A form of twenty-first century autarchic economy. The result? Stagnation, third-worldization, backwardization, etc. Not good.

So, the historical trend is clear. There is not much for the US to do. World War III? Not a chance to win. Trigger a world pandemic? Use bioweapons? Not much hope to get out unharmed. In fact, the brief experiment with Covid showed that the US had a much higher level of destruction and death than its adversaries. New forms of exotic weapons like geo-weapons, climate weapons, direct energy weapons? The US is no longer facing an army of bows and arrows, but even better and more sophisticated technological powerhouses in China and Russia.

It would be wise then to call for a truce, ask for help in order to wind down its excesses of the last 30 or 40 years. Not yet unmanageable. Engage in a constructive dialogue, give up its claims to hegemony and look ahead for another day, when it can re-tool itself and recast itself into a different national identity. But that ain’t going to happen because the national hubris and arrogance is so deeply engrained in the populace that such a sudden loss of status is unpalatable.

If the competition is shaping up to be between team China and team US, there is every reason to believe based on known qualifications that team China is already projected to be the winner. Hard work, excellent education, focus, discipline, unity of the goal, good morals and far less corruption as the institutionalized policy of the US system, all of these and more are all meant to predetermine the outcome.

But, we’ll have to wait and see.