Monthly Archives: April 2023

Economics/Statistics

US Annualized Debt Costs Exceed $800 Billion

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Authored by Mark Cudmore, Bloomberg macro strategist,

US yields [Ed. Note: interest payments] have ongoing upside pressure from the debt-ceiling debate. Even if a one-year extension is achieved this year, as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is reported to be proposing, that just creates a far greater problem in a presidential-election year.

Everyone cites 2011 as the playbook for debt-ceiling stress: While those fraught negotiations may be the closest precedent we have, the 2023 episode is likely to be far worse for markets.

The backdrop for 2011 was that everyone viewed the debt ceiling as a purely technical issue. The US government debt pile back then was less than 100% of GDP and yields were low. The estimated annualized payments to service the debt were less than $450b per year. That sounds a lot, but it was a much smaller amount than four years earlier, so the path wasn’t worrying anybody.

It’s a very different situation now. US debt is above 120% of GDP and, far more importantly, the estimated annualized payments to service that debt rose to $773b, as of the end of January. Even more worryingly, they are rising at an almost parabolic rate due to what’s happening to yields — that number is has risen by more than $300b in just a year!

On the majority of days, it’s an issue for Treasuries that’s entirely dominated by other trading factors — but it will lead to random yield-blowouts in the future.

The estimated annual costs of servicing the US debt exceeded $800b as of the end of March — that’s more than 40% higher than any time prior to the past year.

One large extra warning: The chart above is only until the end of January. Since then, US yields have risen more than 20bps all the way out the curve.

The costs are still rising almost parabolically, so expect headline excitement when the $1T figure is likely reached later this year.

The End is Here

Death Rattle

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By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with

The sound out of Washington from the Pentagon Papers is what is known in the medical profession as a death rattle. This is what happens when an emperor makes a lethal or suicidal mistake; dies at the hands of his praetorian guard; and is replaced by the military candidate.

In ancient Rome the process started with the murder of the Emperor Caligula (lead image, left) and his replacement by Claudius from 41 to 54 AD. As Claudius predicted, it would get worse. From 238 AD there were fourteen “barracks emperors” in just thirty-three years. After that there were ghost emperors – the real power was in the Roman army. But the power of the army was shrinking smaller and smaller geographically as it ran out of arms to extract tribute and enforce its tax-paying protectorate until ultimately it could not protect itself.

The history means the empire doesn’t die quite as quickly as the emperor.

What the Pentagon Papers mean is that that the US is heading for military rule. An incumbent or a candidate without the endorsement of the Joint Chiefs of Staff cannot win or keep his power. This form of military rule is not so much to save the empire from the Russians in Europe and the Chinese in Asia – the US Army, Navy and Air Force are already losing both of those wars. They have leaked their warnings to a hapless boy at an airbase on Cape Cod in order to cut their losses and save themselves to fight another day.

Accordingly, the Pentagon Papers signal the start of their fight to the end of the caligulists at the State Department like Antony Blinken (right) and Victoria Nuland (centre), and the so-called neocon (horse for president) faction in the Democratic Party.

This also means that the alternative US military voices whom you see on Youtube – Colonel Douglas McGregor, Lieutenant Colonel Anthony Shaffer, Major Scott Ritter and also CIA veterans like Philip Giraldi, Larry Johnson, and Ray McGovern – they too are trying to save the US empire. They aren’t pro-Russian or pro-Chinese. They don’t want to see the US forces defeated so comprehensively that none of the allies will agree to pay the bill to be protected.

Watch Shaffer tell Andrew Napolitano on Friday, April 14, what you have been hearing on air in War of the Worlds and in print for much longer. Shaffer insists he and his intelligence community colleagues, in military uniform and at the CIA, know everything about Russia from the raw intelligence they have been gathering. This is a mistake of fact and a folly of judgement. It’s exceptionalism reworked to a fresh purpose.

Left: Andrew Napolitano interviews Tony Shaffer, April 14, 2023. Right: Official photograph of the JCS, December 2020 — Mark Milley is second from left, Charles Brown third from right. No photograph of Milley and Brown closer together has been found on the JCS website or in media publication.

That’s the purpose of the Pentagon Papers which General Mark Milley, retiring chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) and General Charles Brown, the US Air Force (USAF) chief of staff and candidate successor to Milley, have been trying to achieve since an operation to leak the highest classified JCS documents on the war in Ukraine was started through the Air Force chain of command from its top to its bottom last December. This operation did not strike target until April – the slowest guided missile firing in USAF history.

Napolitano has been a trial litigator and a court judge in New Jersey, so he knows how to ask a forensic question to get an answer at the courtroom standard — the balance of probabilities for civil crimes, beyond reasonable doubt for homicide. Here are Napolitano’s questions for Shaffer:

  • How does a 21-year old Air National Guardsman get the highest US security clearance? (Answer: he doesn’t.)
  • The Pentagon Papers on the Ukraine were circulating in January. It’s now April. Didn’t the Defense Department know about this until now? (Answer: that’s a question still to be answered.)
  • Will Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and JCS Chairman Milley suffer for the evidence that they have been lying on oath to Congress? (Answer: these are issues.)

Napolitano and Shaffer have missed the difference between the batch of ten Ukraine war papers first reported nationally in the New York Times on April 6, and the CIA papers which have followed in their dozens.

Russian officials didn’t miss this significance. But in their public response they have limited themselves to saying there is nothing new, not already published, about the CIA releases. “The fact that the United States has been spying on various heads of state, especially in European capitals, for a long time now, has come up repeatedly, causing various scandalous situations,” the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. About the CIA reports of Russian military staff conflicts, also repeating Russian media reporting and public debate, Peskov added: “I’m doubting… the author’s understanding of the essence of what is happening inside Russia.”

“There has been no need to read leaks or articles on this,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova added on April 12. “It is clear that NATO, the United States and Great Britain are not just deeply involved, but are directly conducting and managing the destabilisation of the situation in this region through the Kiev regime. Nobody is hiding this. Relevant statements are made every day. They say they are not a party to the conflict. But they have never hidden any information about their involvement. On the contrary, this has been endlessly ‘elevated’, assigned a special historical role, and called ‘their mission.’ There is nothing more to expect or analyse. Nuances or additional facts may appear, but hardly anyone on the planet has any doubt that the collective West, headed by the US and Great Britain, are behind this. Regarding surveillance, I will not comment on planted stories and anonymous sources. It is useless and counterproductive. The fact is that this is not news either. Surveillance is a fact, first of all, on their allies, those who trust them. Did someone not know this? If so, it means that people are not following the agenda.”

Listen to the broadcast.

For the discussion of the role of Germany in the war against Russia, Heinrich Bücker (Buecker) leads in the second and third segments. According to a Berlin district court judge in January, Buecker is one of the leading voices in Germany today threatening “public order”.

In a summary judgement, without hearing courtroom evidence, Judge Tobias Pollman said Buecker’s criminal offence came under Section 140 of the Criminal Code and had consisted of “publicly approving a crime of aggression (Section 138 of the International Criminal Code) in a manner likely to disturb the public peace at a meeting.” Pollmann charged Buecker of approving in his speech “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in violation of international law, the illegality of which you knew.”

Read Buecker’s full speech, translated into English, here:

Left: the speech on June 22, 2022, at the Soviet Memorial in Berlin’s Treptow Park on the 81st anniversary of Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union; read this report of the case here. Right, Heinrich Buecker at the Coop Anti-War Café in Berlin; follow the website. The Restaurant Guru says: “Try nicely cooked berliner. Guests visit COOP Anti-War cafe bar to taste good coffee. The well-trained staff works hard, stays positive and makes this place great. The fast service is something these restaurateurs care about. The homey decor and cool atmosphere let clients feel relaxed here.”

On warfare by the Germans and Americans, it was the English soldier Spike Milligan who said in one of his war memoirs that the Americans had become the new Germans. He died before this war reveals that, led in Berlin by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the Germans have now become the new Americans. From his grave in Winchelsea, Milligan is still talkative on the subject of warfighting and the false bravado it can cause among caligulists and praetorians alike.

Military Affairs

The Catastrophe of NATO Forces in Ukraine

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Komsomolskaya Pravda has a big article on the ‘Dagger’ attack in March on a NATO bunker in Lvov, where 200 NATO officers got killed. There are no videos or photos added.
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27490.5/4748875/

“The catastrophe of NATO forces in Ukraine”: Russia pushed back the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with one blow of the “Dagger” on a secret bunker. Russian hypersonic missiles “Dagger” destroyed a secret bunker with 200 officers of NATO and the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The military departments of the USA, Great Britain, Poland and some other NATO countries prefer not to stutter even a word about what happened in early March near Lvov. And when corrosive journalists, who got wind of the terrible state of emergency , ask generals and politicians questions about it, they receive either “know comments” or crafty references to “ignorance” about what happened in response. But nevertheless, the “awl from the bag” still begins to crawl out. Information is increasingly leaking into the Western and Ukrainian press, as well as into social networks from various sources, which are very well matched in detail and allow us to present a reliable scenario for an extremely painful drama (even tragedy) for NATO and its allies.

NATO officers’ bunker

And the scenario looks like this. Near Lviv, at a depth of a hundred meters, there was a reserve command post of the former Carpathian military district. This secret facility, well protected and equipped with modern communication systems, was chosen by NATO generals and colonels when, with the outbreak of hostilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass (2014), they decided to move to the Ukrainian rear, where it was more convenient to advise the Kiev allies and develop plans of operations together with them. The secret underground point also instilled a sense of security in the “consultants” even after Moscow, with the start of its special military operation, promised to strike at decision-making points. In fact, it was a joint command and control headquarters, consisting of NATO representatives, as well as officers of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of its armed forces. In addition, this headquarters was very tightly covered by air defense systems, which further added to its “inhabitants” confidence in their safety.

Probably for this reason, the sense of vigilance was also lost – sometimes dozens of cars gathered at the entrance to the headquarters even in broad daylight, which did not go unnoticed by our space, aviation and undercover intelligence. And by the beginning of March, the Russian General Staff already knew that both in the “dungeon” and in Kyiv, the development of an offensive plan for the Armed Forces of Ukraine was in full swing. It only remained to determine the most advantageous moment to strike at the lair of the NATO “branch” in the Lviv region and carefully work out the flight tasks of our hypersonic “Daggers”. And, of course, to thoroughly (up to a minute) calculate the take-off time of the Kinzhal carriers (MiG-31 fighters), the launch line of these missiles (without entering the enemy’s air defense zone) and the “instant” of hitting the target.

“Daggers” completed the task

Why were the “Daggers” chosen? Yes, because such a bunker is invulnerable to conventional missiles. And there was no point in sending bombers for strikes even with 1.5-ton or five-ton bombs: the Ukrainians could shoot down the planes, and hitting the “peg” would hardly have happened. And launched even from a distance of 2 thousand kilometers, the “Dagger” (warhead – 500 kg!) Goes to the target at a crazy speed (10 or even 15 times faster than sound!) – while there are no such air defense systems in the world that could intercept it . And also the “Dagger” is a high-precision, sniper weapon – it has a deviation from the center of the target – only 1 meter! He jumped into the “well” of the entrance group for many tens of meters, and after him another … And this, consider, a ton of explosives!

“The catastrophe of NATO forces in Ukraine”

Of the “teachers and students” who were in the dungeon, no one survived . And there were more than 200 of them. Including, say some “informed” Western journalists, several American generals and senior officers. And also – British, Polish, Ukrainian.

And here is the very “awl from the bag”, which I already mentioned. The Greek portal Pronews , which is close to the Ministry of Defense of its country , claimed that “dozens of foreign officers were killed when the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles hit the joint Ukrainian-NATO command and communications center. This was “a disaster for NATO forces in Ukraine.”

And that is not all. Some Kiev sites have also blabbed: after the emergency, representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were called to the carpet at the US Embassy , ​​where they were reprimanded “for the poor security of the control center”, and at the same time handed over a list of the dead senior and senior American officers and ordered “to get them at least from underground.” The corpses of those who died from explosions and suffocated in a frenzy are still being dug up …

So far, according to the “leaks” in Ukrainian social networks, it can be judged that only 40 bodies have been recovered from under the ruins of the destroyed center. The rest of the dead are still buried under the rubble.

Officially

And here it is impossible not to recall that on March 9, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a modest message on its official Telegram channel stating that in response to the terrorist actions organized by the Kiev regime in the Bryansk region on March 2, the Russian army launched a massive “retaliation strike.” The ministry emphasized that the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system was used.

By the way, this “retribution strike”, according to the director of the Institute for the Study of National Crises Nikolai Sorokin , had other consequences. He believes that the destruction of the “think tank” of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive could well slow it down. This version has its own reason. The offensive is still delayed. Maybe, according to ritual custom, they wait 40 days from the date of death? …

But why are the capitals of the NATO countries keeping quiet about the terrible state of emergency? Most likely because they are “ashamed” to admit a biting slap from Moscow . Or because it could be an open recognition of the active participation of NATO troops in the hostilities against Russia.

Scamdemic - Corona Virus

COVID-19 Drugs Are All Anti-Malarial: Here is Why

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Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The COVID-19 recommendations hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and now artemisinin all have one thing in common: They are antimalarial drugs or have such properties.

Yet studies suggest that this may not be a mere coincidence; malaria and COVID-19 may be more similar than people may realize.

Malaria Versus COVID-19

From the outset, malaria and COVID-19 are very distinct diseases.

Malaria is a parasitic disease. An infection starts when an individual is bitten by a mosquito carrying a parasite from the Plasmodium genus. Upon infection, the parasite first goes to the liver and multiplies in liver cells. Then it migrates to the bloodstream, invades and proliferates in red blood cells, and causes these cells to expand and burst.

Common malaria symptoms such as fever, chills, and sweating occur during the blood-stage infection. Complications include anemia, and on rare occasions, cerebral malaria, liver failure, fluid buildup in the lungs, and acute respiratory distress syndrome.

COVID-19, on the other hand, is a viral disease. Infection occurs primarily through the inhalation of contaminated droplets. The virus invades the body through the nasal cavities, entering the upper and then lower respiratory tracts.

Inflammation of the lungs ensues as the body’s immune cells fight off the infection. The person’s oxygen levels start dropping as inflammation worsens in the advent of a cytokine storm, and the lungs become damaged. Some of the virus can also go into the bloodstream and invade other organs, causing systemic inflammation and damage.

Several Commonalities

While one mainly affects blood cells and the other primarily affects the lungs, both diseases are characterized by a strong inflammatory response early in the infection, according to a 2022 paper in Frontiers in Immunology.

Symptoms-wise, both infections from malaria and COVID-19 can lead to fever, fatigue, shortness of breath, diarrhea, and muscle pain.

If inflammation is prolonged, the body will experience a significant increase in cytokines, and individuals can become severely injured or even die.

The two diseases are also similar in that they both sequester iron, use the same receptors in their pathogenesis, and even share similar structures in their proteins.

Iron Storage

Both the Plasmodium parasite and the SARS-CoV-2 virus require iron to proliferate. Therefore, both the parasite and the virus need to store iron inside the ferritin protein within infected cells. High or increased levels of ferritin are therefore an indication of severe disease and inflammation.

Drugs that are capable of targeting iron storage or preventing proliferation may therefore be successful in treating both malaria and COVID-19.

Similar Receptors

The angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2) receptor is involved in both malaria and COVID-19 infections.

In COVID-19, the virus binds to ACE-2 to invade cells. ACE-2 is ubiquitous within the human body, present within at the very least:

  • Lungs
  • Blood vessels
  • Muscles
  • The gut
  • Nerves
  • Stomach
  • Heart
  • Kidneys
  • Pancreas
  • Testes
  • Uterus

Organs that have a high number of ACE-2 receptors are therefore at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection.

The significance of ACE-2 in malaria is uncertain. However, one study, as well as the one published in Frontiers in Immunology, showed that people who have their ACE-2 receptors reduced due to genetic predispositions are more resistant to malaria.

According to the Frontiers in Immunology study, malaria parasites use the CD147 receptors on red blood cells to gain entry into the cell. The COVID-19 virus also uses CD147 in the absence of ACE-2 receptors. CD147 has also been linked to the formation of blood clots in COVID-19 infections.

Therapeutics that can target CD147 and ACE-2 may be successful in treating both malaria and COVID-19.

Similar Protein Structures

Additionally, both pathogens share a degree of overlap in their protein structures. The COVID-19 surface N protein has at least 40 percent structural similarity with important malarial proteins in charge of transport, attachment, and invasion.

This means that drugs that can target malarial proteins may also be able to target SARS-CoV-2 viral proteins.

Antimalarial Drugs Used in COVID-19

Early in the pandemic, many studies recommended antimalarial and anti-parasitic drugs such as hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, ivermectin, and artemisinin as potential treatment options for COVID-19.These recommendations, however, soon received backlash, with one reason being that malaria and COVID-19 seem to be very different diseases.

But many doctors and studies found these therapeutics helpful in treating acute COVID-19. Professor Jose Luis Abreu, whose specialty is in plant science at The State University of Nuevo León, used the proposition of “parallelism between malaria and COVID-19” as an explanation for why antimalarial drugs such as ivermectin, artemisinin, and hydroxychloroquine may be applied to COVID-19 in his protocol.

Block COVID-19 Receptors and Proteins

In simulation studies, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, and artemisinin can bind to SARS-CoV-2 N proteins, which have structural similarities with malaria proteins. In treating malaria, hydroxychloroquine and artemisinin have been shown to block malarial proteins from replicating and proliferating.

All three drugs can also bind to CD147 and ACE-2 receptors, as previously reported by The Epoch Times. These drugs can also bind to COVID-19 spike proteins directly to prevent viral attachment to cell receptors and also prevent viral proliferation by blocking proteins that take part in viral replication.

Read more here…

Military Affairs

Are the US and Russia Coming to a Truce in Ukraine ?

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Neofeudalfuture says:

Prigozhin is now saying that ending the war here counts as a victory -.

As strange as it sounded earlier – when China said there’d be peace by summer – I was skeptical.

But the leaks and direct allegations of corruption show that strong factions in the US want to get back to normal.

Prigozhin‘s statement shows strong factions in Russia’s deep state want the same thing.

China certainly does, it hates all this self-determination stuff as much as ukraine does (or did?)

It’s looking like the war will grind to a halt. Without a treaty though, for territory changes, there will be another one, but maybe not for a while.

Maybe everyone will just declare themselves winners? Unless Ukraine has a couple secret NATO divisions in their back pocket, their 12 brigades are just enough to make a mess, but it won’t cut the land bridge.

Russians aren’t necessarily the brightest but they can see that if they retreat again there might be a revolution. Even if their deep state wants to betray Russia they can’t enjoy the fruits of it if they’re getting executed by peasants.

Here is what Prigozhin said about the battle for Artemovsk. There are a lot of interesting things in it.

  1. The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Chasiv Yar: settlements included in the so-called “Donbass ring” and forming a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a fleeting victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbass.

  2. The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces. About 200 000 already sufficiently trained fighters, who have passed two or three months of training and coordination, are ready to perform combat tasks. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200 000 to go on the offensive in various directions. The troops ready for a counteroffensive are in the areas of concentration – they have enough of everything. In those tank wedges, which they try to hammer into the defense of the Wagner PMCs by the dozens every day, the AFU loses from 30 to 50 pieces of equipment daily, and they do not experience problems with it. And they have unlimited people, as they say at the front.

  3. Every strike on Bakhmut, every captured soldier, every hundred killed hits Zelensky and the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine much harder than the advantages they get from holding the remnants of this city.

At the same time, the long battle for Bakhmut is extremely beneficial to the Russian troops, because they already squeezed a large chunk of the territory out of Ukraine in 2022. If the special operation remains within these borders, plus or minus a couple of tens of kilometers, then this will solve many of its tasks. Bakhmut makes it possible for the Russian army to accumulate forces, occupy advantageous defense lines, deal with internal problems, prepare mobilized and fully armed to meet any number of counter-attacking AFU soldiers. Bakhmut is extremely profitable for us, we grind the Ukrainian army there and restrain their maneuvers.

  1. The collapse of Russia by military means cannot happen. Forests, swamps, vast territories, climatic specifics reliably protect the territory of the country, making it a huge fortified area. Always in history, the enemy who reached Moscow, as a result, shamefully fled, turning the “victory road” into the “road of death” on the way back. Why do the Anglo-Saxons restrain Zelensky by arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to break the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US does not need a quick war. They need a war that will lead to the re-persuasion of the “deep state” and its victory.

  2. Ukrainians are ready to attack. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for the healing of Russia in order for it to come together and become the Strongest State is the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which no handouts and negotiations will be impossible. And either the AFU will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, accumulate muscles and tear up rivals again in a fair fight. Therefore, I believe that the option of contractual arrangements is impossible for the future of Russia.

And a few direct quotes:

“Why do the Anglo-Saxons restrain Zelensky, arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to hit the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US doesn’t need a quick war. They need a war that will convince the ‘deep state’ and lead to its victory.

The ‘deep State’ is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing authorities, some for those who have been on the run for a long time, but, thanks to their connections, they remain in their places after the elder one has fled. A typical example of the “deep state” is the opposition of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich, and so on. Dvorkovich, whom I have mentioned many times, who fled abroad, left behind a whole tail of scum who were under him and above him, and who are elements of this ‘deep state’. The ‘deep State’ endlessly leaks information and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for the sake of its own interests. It is easy to find an approach to the deep state, because it is a sponge inside the country, which, on the one hand, is red, on the other — black, on the third — white, and on the fourth — green. And from each side, having a connection to a part of the “deep state”, you can get to its center. The Russian deep state is currently experiencing a serious crisis.

Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are now in doubt or categorically against what is happening. Representatives of the deep state urgently want to return to their normal life, old habits and comfort. The ‘Deep State’ is tricky and quirky, the conversation of Joseph Prigozhin is a vivid example of this. They are ready to mimic anyone. This is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon.

At meetings, they are silent, express their doubts. And when making decisions based on bureaucratic procedures, certain actions aimed at winning this war are hindered. Since the bureaucracy in Russia today is at an exorbitant level, it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top management aimed at winning within the framework of the ‘legitimate bureaucracy’. These are the internal enemies. In the theory of Alexander Beglov, this is called a ‘bureaucratic sieve’ – a sieve that you can get into, but it is impossible to get out of there.”

Western Hegemony's Collapse

They Take Indians for Zombies!

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M. K. Bhadrakumar

@BhadraPunchline

Setting for massive escalation! Kuleba is Blinken’s alter ego in Kiev. Good strategy — sends lightweight DFM to Delhi on charm offensive carrying letter addressed to PM & inviting NSA to Kiev, while preparing all-out war. They take Indians for zombies!

Pentagon leak bothers Biden for wrong reason. Will now double down & escalate war that is integral to Biden’s election campaign, given scam involving his family’s activities in Kiev circa 2014-2015. Zelensky is Biden’s indispensable partner now & forever!

Anglozionism

Patrushev on the North Caucasus Threats

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Top Russian security security official Patrushev:

“Today, in order to provoke extremist behavior in N. Caucasus, they’re spreading calls for mass riots, illegal actions & terrorist acts. This destructive activity is carried out with coordination & support of Anglo-Saxons and their henchmen. [Referring to two Chechen Wars where Putin has alleged US fostered violence & separatism], Russia has already encountered the use of such methods and remembers what the residents of the North Caucasus had to endure.

When the West provoked a conflict on the territory of our country using intl terrorist groups, we managed, with active participation of residents of Caucasus, to decisively suppress criminal activities that posed a threat to the territorial integrity of Russia & keep peace.”

Western Hegemony's Collapse

Pakistan is Defecting to Russian/Chinese/Iranian Side — New Regional Alignment

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via Yenisafak.com/

The foreign ministers of Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan on Thursday held the US and its allies, who hastily withdrew from Afghanistan in 2020, responsible for the country’s “disastrous situation.”

The four officials held an informal meeting on the sidelines of a conference of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

They also discussed strengthening coordination on Afghanistan to neutralize security threats emanating from the territory.

The foreign ministers agreed to build a united, consolidated regional approach for Afghan affairs, to interact with the interim Taliban administration for the sake of internal stability in Afghanistan, and to avoid a humanitarian crisis.

“The participants agreed that the main responsibility for the disastrous situation in Afghanistan lies with the US and its allies in connection with the failure of their 20-year experiment in this country,” a joint statement said.

The sides also stressed the unacceptability of the deployment of US-NATO military infrastructure in Afghanistan and the surrounding region.

On Aug. 15, 2021, the Western-backed Afghan government collapsed and the Taliban entered Kabul, concluding a rapid takeover of the country as the US was completing the military withdrawal to which it agreed in February 2020.

Since then, Afghanistan is facing a deepening economic and humanitarian crisis characterized by a massive cut in donor assistance, food insecurity, and a cash crunch. There are also rights concerns, including restrictions on women’s access to education and work.

Capitalism in Decay

Why The US Is Headed Into “something like a revolution”

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by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com
Excerpt

[ . . . ]

International Man: What happens after a crisis? Is there a positive way forward?

Doug Casey: Historically, the answer is, “Almost never”—in the short run. The best recent example is the French Revolution. It got worse with Robespierre—a Bernie Sanders of the era—followed by Napoleon. Or take the case of the Russian revolution. As necessary as it was to get rid of Nicholas II, it got worse with Lenin, and then it got even worse with Stalin. But even in those cases, France and Russia recovered.

If it all comes unglued in the US over the next decade, those two revolutions could be templates. Look at the way leading Democrats think, and listen to what they’re saying. They’re echoing Robespierre and Lenin.

The Republicans aren’t much better, because although they sometimes talk the talk of peace and personal freedom, they almost never walk the walk. The two major US parties—and people in the Red counties and the Blue counties—seem to really hate each other.

It’s quite ugly sociologically. There are irreconcilable differences. They’re exacerbated by the fact we’re headed for a financial blow up. There’s no doubt about that.

Some years ago, there was a poll taken among Generation X types. It turned out that more of them believed that space aliens were going to invade than that they were ever going to collect Social Security. People have very little faith in “the system” anymore, the society, or the government.

If we go back to the beginning of the 20th century, the country really wasn’t very political at all. People worried about their own lives, their own families, and their own local communities. Americans shared a common culture, beliefs, and values—that’s no longer true. Now the country has become very politicized—everybody has a loud voice and they use votes as weapons against their neighbors. It’s become a nation of nasty busybodies.

That makes me think the next upset will be something like a revolution. It’s likely to be really ugly, because we’re looking, simultaneously, at an economic catastrophe, political chaos, and a social and demographic upset—and probably a military situation as well. Government often sees war as a way to unite the country.

So, what’s going to happen?

I’ll hazard a guess that 50 years from now, the United States and, for that matter, most countries are not going to exist in anything like their present form. The best solution is a peaceful break up into smaller political subdivisions. As opposed to a civil war—which is a contest between one or more groups for the control of a central government.

Saving Ukrainians from Themselves

Backpedaling on Crimea?

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Disagreements began within the Ukrainian elite over Crimea: should it be recaptured at all costs, or should it be bargained for and ceded to Russia. Foreign Policy writes about this in an article entitled “Crimea has become a Frankenstein monster.”

This issue, according to the publication, can lead to a split with the West, convinced that Crimea is Moscow’s “red line”, beyond which there is only a nuclear war. “The Ukrainian authorities have fallen into the trap of their uncompromising – and increasingly unjustified – politics,” the American publication assesses the situation.

It writes that the Ukrainian authorities have created a mood in society for the return of Crimea at any cost.

Although there are nuances here too. In a poll last July, 58% of Ukrainians who responded said Crimea should return to Ukraine — a majority, but not a huge one.

However, none of the supporters of the compromise is ready to speak on record, the newspaper notes. As a former Soviet-era dissident put it: “Under the Soviet Union, people were afraid to say what they thought. Well, I must say that a similar situation exists today in Ukraine. This is due to the anger and hatred of the population caused by the Russian invasion, as well as repression by the state. Anyone who advocates a compromise with Russia is immediately publicly labeled as a traitor and targeted by the SBU.”

Ukrainian television now overwhelmingly supports the government’s line that the return of Crimea and eastern Donbas is non-negotiable. This is reinforced by pressure on other media, Foreign Policy notes.

Whether or not the planned Ukrainian offensive succeeds and Ukrainian forces reach the Crimean border, Ukraine is likely to face growing calls from Western governments for some form of temporary territorial compromise with Russia, coupled with the threat of cuts in Western aid. edition.

But another effect is already working here, which the author of the publication called “Frankenstein’s Monster”.

“State propaganda, aimed at motivating the population to resist, has led to the fact that she can no longer control the public mood, which she herself formed. It is no coincidence that NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov recently said that for President Zelensky, giving up Crimea would be “political suicide,” the newspaper writes.

It should be noted that this is not the first publication in recent days in the Western media, which raises the question of the need to find compromise solutions on Crimea and Donbass.

Earlier, Foreign Affairs wrote that the West needs a new strategy for Ukraine.