Saving Ukrainians from Themselves

Will Biden Send US Airpower for Ukraine Offensive?

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by STEPHEN BRYEN AND SHOSHANA BRYEN via Asia Times

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. Shoshana Bryen is senior director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly. She has more than 30 years experience as an analyst of US defense policy and Middle East affairs, and has run programs and conferences with American military personnel in a variety of countries.

If Ukrainian collapse is imminent, Biden doesn’t need NATO for a decision to use ‘volunteers’ in rebadged planes


A Ukrainian boneyard is filled with broken-down leftover Soviet aircraft. Still usable planes in the Ukrainian air force are not a great deal better. Will Biden send rebadged planes with ‘volunteer’ pilots? Photo: English Russia

As a practical matter, any modern military offensive launched without air cover is a suicide mission.

Ukraine no longer has much of an air force, even with the addition of perhaps a dozen or so old MIG-29s acquired from NATO countries. Some of those are not flyable and others are being disassembled and used for parts.

Ukraine’s operational fighter aircraft have to fly against more advanced Russian fighters including the formidable Su-35, and survive in combat against mobile Russian air defenses.

Whatever Ukraine has, its air force cannot be expected to last more than a few days in a major combat, if that.

And yet, Ukraine is planning a new offensive. It is possible that US President Joe Biden is planning to provide air support to the Ukrainian army or at least has winked in the direction of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Biden already has said he won’t let Ukraine fall. But, even within the administration, some are questioning the wisdom of supporting a major offensive, citing fears that the Ukrainians don’t have the troops or the tactics to succeed.

This raises the question of whether Ukraine’s military leaders are going ahead knowing full well they are sending their land forces into a meat grinder, or whether they have been given assurances that the US will neutralize Russia’s air force and air defenses. Is there a possibility that Zelensky has been offered American planes and pilots with rebadged F-16s?

There is nothing new in the idea of “volunteer” air operators. Remember the Flying Tigers of World War II or Russian pilots in Chinese uniforms flying rebadged MIGs in the Korean war, or Russian pilots pretending to be Egyptian flyboys in the Egypt-Israel War of Attrition (1967-1970).

How well American aircraft would perform against layered Russian air defenses is not certain, but if the Russians are only half-successful, the US could lose many planes and pilots. Worse still, the Russians may attack American bases outside of Ukraine, including in Poland and Romania, vastly escalating the war in response to American escalation.

The strategy and tactics of the Ukrainian Army are clearly dictated at times by politics. Military leaders have made it known that they were told by Zelensky to stay in Bakhmut and other urban hot spots, resulting in huge casualties.

Attempts to relieve Bakhmut by sending in more troops and by a counteroffensive that Tass reports has been “thwarted,” have only helped a little because, with muddy secondary roads and fields and heavy rain, the relief operations have been limited to light equipment.

In the last few weeks, President Zelensky appears to have somewhat moderated his posture, telling his army it only needs to hold out there until mid-May when the anticipated offensive in the south will begin. But then, Zelensky made another U-turn and said there will be no surrender in Bakhmut.

Bakhmut does not have much to do with a planned Ukrainian offensive that will move tens of thousands of troops against Russian positions further south. So, it seems Zelensky’s order to hang in there makes no sense. If Bakhmut is a lost cause, it would make sense for the Ukrainian army to pull out.

Ukrainian Brigadier General Sergey Melnik told Spain’s El Pais that Ukraine has already lost most of its professional soldiers and that Ukraine “will need ‘four to six times‘ as many troops as Moscow has fielded in its ongoing military campaign” if it is to break through the defenses built by the Russian forces in their current positions.

For its planned offensive, Ukraine is said to have assembled a force of 60,000 (if they operate fully staffed) consisting of 12 brigades, nine of which have some Western equipment including tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery and rocket launchers.

Such a large force, even if it is broken into separate pincer-style operations, is going to be easily discoverable. Russia has drones and satellites, as well as ground observers. It has use of east-to-west road structures to move its equipment and men. Russia also is superior in artillery and rocket launchers.

As yet, Ukraine has done little in the way of offensive strikes. Instead, it has been fighting defensive battles in urban towns, cities and villages, digging in its forces in a manner reminiscent of the trench warfare of World War I.

Even in this conservative type of operation, Ukraine has heavy and increasing casualties. While it is nearly impossible to get reliable numbers, the leaked Pentagon/CIA documents estimate that Ukraine is losing seven soldiers to every Russian.

Put these same forces on the offensive, and the casualties are likely to soar, perhaps ten to one or even 20 to one. Ukraine cannot sustain losses on this scale. There are already units refusing to fight and the Russians say Ukrainian troops are walking across lines and surrendering rather than continue to be exposed to the Russian “meat grinder.”

Take Russian comments as you will, but it is ironic that Western media, which had been emphasizing horrific Russian losses, seem to have turned to heavy Ukrainian casualties.

If Biden sees an imminent Ukrainian collapse, the possibility of American intervention cannot be ruled out. He does not need NATO for a decision to use “volunteers,” but if he does so, there is plenty of reason to think NATO will collapse anyway – not because NATO is attacked but because NATO was deceived.

Dragging Europe into a big war is something even the dumbest European leaders worry about, and they should. NATO has been skirting disaster for some time now, provoking the Russians beyond reason.

Why NATO is so keen on this course is hard to fathom: Probably it is intense pressure from the United States. Germans know just how reckless the Biden administration can be as they watch the bubbles rising to the surface in the Baltic Sea.

Does the Biden administration really want to take this immense risk? Does Zelensky, who could find a Russian response in a nuclear attack on Kiev, think this will assure his future?

On the Road to Serfdom ?

Treasury Secretary Yellen says China can Develop, as long as it Accepts American ‘Leadership ’

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By Timur Fomenko, a political analyst


Recently, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made her first remarks on US economic engagement with China in nearly two years.

She rejected the idea that a war between the US and China is “increasingly inevitable,” that there is “no reason to fear healthy economic competition with any country,” and that “China’s economic growth need not be incompatible with US economic leadership.”

Yellen also said that the primary goal of the US is always to safeguard its “national security” and thus it’s not really out to hamper the rise of China or its economy. But actions speak louder than words, and her comments come on the back of the US attempting to cripple China’s entire semiconductor industry, forcing third-party countries to abide by those restrictions as well, adding numerous Chinese companies to its trade-restrictions entity list, using allegations of forced labour to opportunistically undermine certain Chinese industries and, of course, maintaining broad Trump-era tariffs on Chinese exports to the US.

It might be asked, what form of economic engagement is there to be had? Because the rhetoric, hyperbole and extremity from Washington could not be less conducive to an economic relationship with China, what with terms such as ‘decoupling’ being thrown around, and the existence of an entire US congressional committee purely to produce anti-China legislation. The Biden administration, for that matter, is so sensitive to appearing ‘weak’ on China, that it will capitulate to any popular trend that gains enough political clout, such as calls to ban the popular TikTok app.

The US is so wrapped up on its protectionist, America First doctrine that it cannot be seen to be making concessions. And, looking at Yellen’s choice of words, we see the “catch” – China is only permitted to grow on the condition that it accepts “US economic leadership” – in other terms, the US’ political, economic, and military dominance.

This isn’t about reaching a consensus or agreement between the two parties; it is about Washington unilaterally imposing its demands on Beijing and requiring that it step down from certain ambitions. This is classic Western imperialism when it comes to China. Economic engagement with China and its massive market is great, provided that it is the Americans who are setting the terms and reaping the profits. The idea of the Chinese asserting their own sovereign rights and interests is not an option.

For the purposes of a historical comparison, the British had their own economic ‘engagement’ with China in the 19th century. The Opium Wars were about bringing China to heel and forcibly opening up its market so that the UK could exclusively benefit from it. Today, the US wants to benefit from the Chinese market, but only if the terms are favourable for American companies and capital, and is therefore attempting to force capitulation. This is why so much of US policy concerning China is devoted to try and destroy or contain the bulk of China’s own high-end industries and companies.

For example, the US does not want China to develop its own commercial passenger jets, such as the C919; it wants Beijing to rely eternally on Boeing. It does not want China to develop its own microchip-making capabilities, as this will undermine the US control over the industry. You get the picture. The US had little issue with China dominating low-end cheap manufacturing that makes trivial and unimportant goods such as throwaway plastic hotel combs or nail clippers. That’s the kind of economic engagement Washington wants, where the balance of profits is in its favour, but the burden of consumer and labour exploitation is on the Chinese.

Finally, it might be worth noting that the US does not tolerate any economic competitor, even among allied states. Hence it has shown little remorse for the destruction and deindustrialization of the German economy, or when it crippled Japan with the 1985 Plaza Accord. The only acceptable China to the US is a weak China, that serves no purpose other than to be a cash cow from which all profits, incentive and talent are vacuumed home. China sees this as completely unacceptable, akin to a new ‘Century of Humiliation’ and this is why no ‘economic truce’ is possible if it is predicated on China’s surrender to American terms.

Scamdemic - Corona Virus

Consequences of Wearing Face Masks

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Kai Kisielinski1*, Oliver Hirsch2, Susanne Wagner3, Barbara Wojtasik4, Stefan Funken5, Bernd Klosterhalfen6, Soumen Kanti Manna7, Andreas Prescher8, Pritam Sukul9* and Andreas Sönnichsen10

  • 1 Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery, Clinical Medicine, Private Practice, Düsseldorf, Germany
  • 2 Department of Psychology, Fachhochschule für Oekonomie und Management (FOM) University of Applied Sciences, Siegen, Germany
  • 3 Veterinary Medicine, Wagner Medical Science Liason (MSL) Management, Blankenfelde-Mahlow, Germany
  • 4 Department of Genetics and Biosystematics, Faculty of Biology, University of Gdańsk, Gdansk, Poland
  • 5 Internal Medicine, Clinical Medicine, Private Practice, Moers, Germany
  • 6 Institute of Pathology, Dueren Hospital, Dueren, Germany
  • 7 Biophysics and Structural Genomics Division, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Kolkata, India
  • 8 Institute of Molecular and Cellular Anatomy (MOCA), Rhine-Westphalia Technical University of Aachen, Aachen, Germany
  • 9 Rostock Medical Breath Research Analytics and Technologies (ROMBAT), Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, University Medicine Rostock, Rostock, Germany
  • 10 Internal Medicine, Clinical Medicine, Private Practice, Gesundheit für Österreich e.V. (Health for Austria), Vienna, Austria

Background: As face masks became mandatory in most countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, adverse effects require substantiated investigation.

Methods: A systematic review of 2,168 studies on adverse medical mask effects yielded 54 publications for synthesis and 37 studies for meta-analysis (on n = 8,641, m = 2,482, f = 6,159, age = 34.8 ± 12.5). The median trial duration was only 18 min (IQR = 50) for our comprehensive evaluation of mask induced physio-metabolic and clinical outcomes.

Results: We found significant effects in both medical surgical and N95 masks, with a greater impact of the second. These effects included decreased SpO2(overall Standard Mean Difference, SMD = −0.24, 95% CI = −0.38 to −0.11, p< 0.001) and minute ventilation (SMD = −0.72, 95% CI = −0.99 to −0.46, p < 0.001), simultaneous increased in blood-CO2 (SMD = +0.64, 95% CI = 0.31–0.96, p < 0.001), heart rate (N95: SMD = +0.22, 95% CI = 0.03–0.41, p = 0.02), systolic blood pressure (surgical: SMD = +0.21, 95% CI = 0.03–0.39, p= 0.02), skin temperature (overall SMD = +0.80 95% CI = 0.23–1.38, p = 0.006) and humidity (SMD +2.24, 95% CI = 1.32–3.17, p < 0.001). Effects on exertion (overall SMD = +0.9, surgical = +0.63, N95 = +1.19), discomfort (SMD = +1.16), dyspnoea (SMD = +1.46), heat (SMD = +0.70), and humidity (SMD = +0.9) were significant in n = 373 with a robust relationship to mask wearing (p < 0.006 to p < 0.001). Pooled symptom prevalence (n = 8,128) was significant for: headache (62%, p < 0.001), acne (38%, p < 0.001), skin irritation (36%, p < 0.001), dyspnoea (33%, p < 0.001), heat (26%, p < 0.001), itching (26%, p < 0.001), voice disorder (23%, p < 0.03), and dizziness (5%, p = 0.01).

Discussion: Masks interfered with O2-uptake and CO2-release and compromised respiratory compensation. Though evaluated wearing durations are shorter than daily/prolonged use, outcomes independently validate mask-induced exhaustion-syndrome (MIES) and down-stream physio-metabolic disfunctions. MIES can have long-term clinical consequences, especially for vulnerable groups. So far, several mask related symptoms may have been misinterpreted as long COVID-19 symptoms. In any case, the possible MIES contrasts with the WHO definition of health.

Conclusion: Face mask side-effects must be assessed (risk-benefit) against the available evidence of their effectiveness against viral transmissions. In the absence of strong empirical evidence of effectiveness, mask wearing should not be mandated let alone enforced by law.

Read More:

Physio-metabolic and clinical consequences of wearing face masks—Systematic review with meta-analysis and comprehensive evaluation
frontiersin.org
Economics/Statistics

We’re Done with “Gradually”. We’ve Now Reached the “Suddenly ” Part

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by Simon Black via Sovereign Man

By the summer of 1563, all of Britain had plunged into chaos over religion and the Reformation.

King Henry VIII broke away from the Catholic church back in the 1530s, sparking a near civil war within the kingdom. Protestants killed Catholics, Catholics killed protestants, and extreme social tensions lasted for decades.

Universities were at the heart of this conflict; rather than focus on real subjects like science and mathematics, students and professors became radical social activists and turned their schools into ideological echo chambers. Sound familiar?

One of the few students who actually wanted to learn was a Scottish teenager named John Napier; Napier had been enrolled at the University of St. Andrews at the time, but he quickly realized that he would never learn a damn thing in that environment. So he dropped out… and started traveling in search of a real education.

No one quite knows exactly where he went or what he did. But when he returned to Scotland eight years later as a young man, Napier had become an intellectual giant.

You might not have ever heard of him, but John Napier was truly one of the great minds of his era. And modern science owes a tremendous debt to his work… in particular his development of logarithms.

If it’s been a few years since you studied math (or ‘maths’ for my British friends), logarithms are the inverse of exponential functions.

Simple example: we know that 102 (or 10 squared) = 10 x 10 = 100. So, the number 10 raised to the power of 2 equals 100.

The inverse of that is to say that the ‘base 10’ logarithm of 100 = 2. Or in mathematical terms, 100 log10 = 2

Napier devised an entire system of logarithms. And this was actually a tremendous leap forward in mathematics, because logarithms made it so much easier for scientists and researchers to calculate solutions to complex problems.

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One of the many important applications to come out of Napier’s work is the concept of ‘logarithmic decay,’ which models many real world phenomena.

The idea behind logarithmic decay is that something declines very, very slowly at first. But, over a long period of time, the rate of decline becomes faster… and faster… and faster.

If you look at it on a graph, logarithmic decay basically looks like a horizontal line that almost imperceptibly arcs gently downwards. But eventually the arc downward becomes steeper and steeper until it’s practically a vertical line down.

Logarithmic decay is like how Hemingway famously described going bankrupt in The Sun Also Rises– “Gradually, then suddenly.”

In fact logarithmic decay is great way to describe social and financial decline. Even the rise and fall of superpowers are often logarithmic in scale. The Kingdom of France in the 1700s infamously fell gradually… then suddenly.

We can see the same logarithmic decay in the West today, and specifically the United States.

The deterioration of government finances has been gradual, then sudden. Social conflict, censorship, and the decline in basic civility has been gradual, then sudden. Even the loss of confidence in the US dollar has been gradual… and is poised to be sudden.

Back in 2009 when I started Sovereign Man, I spoke a lot about ideas that were highly controversial at the time.

I suggested that Social Security’s trust funds would run out of money. That the US government would eventually be buried by its gargantuan national debt. That the US dollar would eventually lose its international reserve dominance. That inflation and social conflict would rise.

The main thesis, quite simply, was that the US was in decline. And whenever I spoke at events, I used to talk about logarithmic decay, saying:

“As a civilization in decline, you never really know quite where you are on the curve. You could be way over here on the horizontal line, at the very beginning of the decline… or you could be standing on the precipice about to hit the vertical slide down.”

Well, now we have a much better idea of where we are on that logarithmic decay curve. Because these ideas about the national debt, inflation, social security, social conflict, etc. are no longer theories. Nor are they even remotely controversial.

Just last week, US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy said in a speech that “America’s debt is a ticking time bomb”. Social Security’s looming insolvency is now openly discussed in Washington and regularly reported in the Wall Street Journal.

We’ve all seen with our own eyes (and even experienced) inflation, social divisions, and censorship.

And as for the dollar, we continue to see a multitude of cracks in its dominance. Most notably, Saudi Arabia is considering a plan to sell oil not just in US dollars, but also in Chinese yuan.

Plus the international development bank of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) announced earlier this month that they will start moving away from the dollar.

Is it any surprise? The US government is weeks away from defaulting on its national debt over the latest debt ceiling debacle. And yet the guy who shakes hands with thin air refuses to negotiate a single penny in spending cuts to help reduce trillions of dollars in future deficit spending.

The whole world is watching in utter disbelief at the astonishing level of incompetence that has infected the highest levels of America’s once hallowed institutions, including news media, big business, and the government itself.

America– and the West by extension– really are on the precipice of that logarithmic decay curve… the part where the horizontal line becomes a vertical line down.

It has taken years… even decades to reach this point, gradually. We’re now at the “suddenly” part.

Now, it’s important to note that the outcome is far from inevitable. Plenty of declining superpowers in the past have pulled themselves out of a tailspin, at least temporarily.

Aurelian’s reforms helped re-establish Rome’s dominance in the late 200s after nearly a century of chaos. The declining Ottoman Empire recovered substantially during the Tanzimat period in the 1800s. King Charles III of Spain made many successful reforms to revive his crumbling empire in the 1700s.

There are many historical precedents for recovery, so all is not lost. But at the moment there is little evidence to suggest any major change on the horizon.

I’m not saying this to be alarmist. Quite the contrary, in fact. Because one of the key pillars of our thinking here at Sovereign Man is that, despite the ineptitude of our governments, we as individuals have the tools, power, and freedom to solve these problems for ourselves… and even prosper doing so.

Simple example: Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money within a decade, and this will be a huge problem for literally tens of millions of people who depend on the program.

However there are numerous tools available to solve this problem; a more robust and powerful retirement structure like a self-directed, solo 401(k) plan, for example, allows you to set aside up to $73,500 per year for your retirement.

Similarly, if you expect a government with deteriorating finances to raise taxes (which they almost always do), you can take completely legal steps to reduce what you owe.

If you anticipate inflation continuing, you can arrange your investments to capitalize on the surge in real assets, like minerals, energy, and productive technology.

You can also take steps to diversify geographically, even internationally, to reduce risks to your family’s freedom.

These solutions barely scratch the surface of the plentiful options at your disposal. All it takes is a sensible understanding of the problem… plus the willingness to take action.

And rational, informed action is always a better option than despair.

Western Hegemony's Collapse

West Holding out Hope to Defeat Russia — Patrushev

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MOSCOW, April 25. /TASS/. Western countries continue their attempts to isolate Russia and strip it of its status as a great power, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev said on Tuesday.

“The collective West led by the Anglo-Saxons is holding out hope to defeat Russia, ensure its isolation in the world, strip it of its status as a great power capable of fittingly rebuffing the US and its aspiration for world domination. It is important to understand that we traditionally stand in the way of its inhumane plans,” he said at the annual plenary meeting of the Security Council’s scientific board.

Patrushev stated that Washington and London will stop at nothing to implement these plans. “We see that for the sake of its own self-serving interests the Anglo-Saxon ruling establishment is capable not only of hampering the development of the third world but also of endangering the prosperity of its European allies, including in the sphere of energy and industrial production,” he cautioned.

The Russian Security Council secretary noted that the circumstances dictate that Russia stay ahead of the game. “[It is necessary] to understand what moves our opponents are going to make next. Not simply track them but see several steps ahead, develop pre-emptive measures in advance,” he explained.

Patrushev added that this would be impossible without fundamental support from the scientific community. “I think it is important to use the capabilities of our council for a further systemic analysis of the West’s methods of waging a hybrid war against Russia,” he concluded.

West holding out hope to defeat Russia — top security official
tass.com
Military Affairs

More from Evgeny Prigozhin

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We publish a request from the editors of RuNews24 and the answer:

Dear Yevgeny Viktorovich, the controversy around Bakhmut does not subside in the media. The United States demands that the President of Ukraine leave the city, while Volodymyr Zelensky himself, despite heavy losses, says that Bakhmut must be kept. In addition, in his interview with Al Arabiya TV channel, Zelensky said that now all the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being thrown into preparations for a large-scale counteroffensive by Ukraine. Tell us, please, how do you see the near future at the front?

We publish a comment by Evgeny Prigozhin:

Let’s break this question down into its components. The first is Bakhmut, the Bakhmut meat grinder. Our task is to grind the Ukrainian army, not to give them the opportunity to gather in a counteroffensive. We are doing this more than successfully, and I can rate the actions of my guys “five points”.

And for myself “three with a minus”, because it was necessary to grind more so that not a single living Ukrainian soldier was left.

But as soon as we finish taking Bakhmut, as soon as we drive the last soldier out of it or destroy them on the territory of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin that day. I figuratively say “on this day”, it can be plus a few days, plus a week. But very close, because the Ukrainians will put up a huge number of troops.

Regarding our offensive after the capture of Bakhmut, which was announced a month ago by the Ministry of Defense, I can say that today we can do it, and today no one is preventing us from entering the operational space, because the situation around Bakhmut within a radius of 10 kilometers will not change after taking it. It will be exactly the same. Those groups of Ukrainian troops that are now inside Bakhmut and are being attacked by us occupy an area of actually two kilometers.

Therefore, they in no way interfere with anyone around now, and the operational space right up to Warsaw is already completely open, if we assume that it will be after the capture of Bakhmut. After we take Bakhmut, of course, the Ukrainian army will take advantage of the fact that the Wagner PMC is drawn into the city, will cut us from both sides from the flanks. And so I squeal about the flanks. Further, as soon as Bakhmut is taken, Zelensky will need the greatest victory. And for this he will launch the very counteroffensive.

Why hasn’t it started yet? The first is because it rains, and absolutely everything gets stuck in the fields, you can only use roads exclusively. Even “pickup trucks” will stick, not to mention tanks.

The second factor is May 9th. Zelensky’s task is to crap the holiday for us, because we have a mental dependence on holidays. We need to take Palmyra on March 8, another city on February 23. And all events should be done by May 9, because we ourselves cannot do anything, and we are constantly trying to cling to the memory of our ancestors, and this has been the case for many decades. Therefore, May 9 is also a serious date for Zelensky. Or he will put one more reference in the list of intelligence information.

Every time he talks about the need to advance, we take certain steps and tighten our muscles as much as we can. He fixes it and clearly understands our defense. I have already said that this is the principle of a boy who shouted “Help!” all the time in the water.

So the vectors converge: the capture of Bakhmut, the counteroffensive, the supply of foreign equipment, our complete carelessness – everything converges into one point. Zelensky needs to strike without a miss, and no matter how he is criticized, he does it in a highly professional manner. And we need to do the same. And while we go around measuring our penises, we chew snot and celebrate holidays.

Cultural/Ideological Divide

Are the Chinese Nice?

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by Gilbert Doctorow via Gilbert Doctorow

Without mincing words, my answer to the question is that the Chinese are not nice. They are dignified, they are hard working and commercially minded. They pay all due respect to professional competence and operate a system of governance that might fairly be described as a meritocracy. But they are not nice in the sense of tolerant of the sins and transgressions of others. They are not Good Christians.

That is where the Chinese should not be confused with the Russian leadership, in which President Vladimir Putin has over the two plus decades at the helm always shown restraint and frequently turned the other cheek when he and his country were abused by the United States and its allies.

Putin’s Christian convictions and the behavior that follow from them have led his domestic critics among super patriots to harshly condemn the way the war in Ukraine or Special Military Operation, if you will, is being prosecuted. Russia has the capability to decapitate the Kiev regime at any time but has not done anything of the kind. Instead it has regularly permitted Western heads of government to visit with Zelensky at his headquarters as if the country were at peace. Russia has allowed the United States to repeatedly cross its declared red lines without punishment. All that we hear is the Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Maria Zakharova wail “can you imagine!” She is as closely bound to that lament as Theresa May was to “highly likely.”

Regrettably, judging by the U.S. activities with respect to Taiwan over the past couple of weeks, Washington does not seem to appreciate the difference between Russia and China in temperament of the leaders and national cultures.

In his present declining state, Biden has no memory. But where is the memory of his younger circle of advisers and assistants? Why are Blinken and Sullivan and Austin ignoring the lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis as they prepare to supply Taiwan with weapons that are as provocative and threatening to China as Khrushchev’s delivery of nuclear tipped missiles was to Cuba in 1962? Where is their memory of the antecedents of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor when Senator Lindsey Graham is allowed to publicly call for disruption of the sea lanes bringing oil to China from the Middle East? I have not heard or seen any criticism of this proposal from the White House.

The Chinese are not big talkers, but they are decisive actors. I have no doubt that if they believe the United States has crossed their red lines regarding aid to Taiwan and interference in the island’s domestic politics to favor independence, then the Chinese will strike. They surely have done their calculations. If they sink America’s aircraft carrier task force in the South China Sea or sink the entire U.S. Pacific fleet as Japan once did under similar circumstances, will the USA launch nuclear missiles and put its own national survival at risk? The answer is a flat no.

For the above acts of reckless endangerment of the Continental U.S., in addition to the violations of perjury before Congress in testimony over the preparedness of Ukraine for a counter-offensive against Russia that contradicts the Pentagon and CIA documents leaked over social media a couple of weeks ago, Biden and many of his team deserve impeachment. Now, before the Chinese show just how un-nice they can be.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

Economics/Statistics

US Annualized Debt Costs Exceed $800 Billion

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Authored by Mark Cudmore, Bloomberg macro strategist,

US yields [Ed. Note: interest payments] have ongoing upside pressure from the debt-ceiling debate. Even if a one-year extension is achieved this year, as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is reported to be proposing, that just creates a far greater problem in a presidential-election year.

Everyone cites 2011 as the playbook for debt-ceiling stress: While those fraught negotiations may be the closest precedent we have, the 2023 episode is likely to be far worse for markets.

The backdrop for 2011 was that everyone viewed the debt ceiling as a purely technical issue. The US government debt pile back then was less than 100% of GDP and yields were low. The estimated annualized payments to service the debt were less than $450b per year. That sounds a lot, but it was a much smaller amount than four years earlier, so the path wasn’t worrying anybody.

It’s a very different situation now. US debt is above 120% of GDP and, far more importantly, the estimated annualized payments to service that debt rose to $773b, as of the end of January. Even more worryingly, they are rising at an almost parabolic rate due to what’s happening to yields — that number is has risen by more than $300b in just a year!

On the majority of days, it’s an issue for Treasuries that’s entirely dominated by other trading factors — but it will lead to random yield-blowouts in the future.

The estimated annual costs of servicing the US debt exceeded $800b as of the end of March — that’s more than 40% higher than any time prior to the past year.

One large extra warning: The chart above is only until the end of January. Since then, US yields have risen more than 20bps all the way out the curve.

The costs are still rising almost parabolically, so expect headline excitement when the $1T figure is likely reached later this year.

The End is Here

Death Rattle

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By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with

The sound out of Washington from the Pentagon Papers is what is known in the medical profession as a death rattle. This is what happens when an emperor makes a lethal or suicidal mistake; dies at the hands of his praetorian guard; and is replaced by the military candidate.

In ancient Rome the process started with the murder of the Emperor Caligula (lead image, left) and his replacement by Claudius from 41 to 54 AD. As Claudius predicted, it would get worse. From 238 AD there were fourteen “barracks emperors” in just thirty-three years. After that there were ghost emperors – the real power was in the Roman army. But the power of the army was shrinking smaller and smaller geographically as it ran out of arms to extract tribute and enforce its tax-paying protectorate until ultimately it could not protect itself.

The history means the empire doesn’t die quite as quickly as the emperor.

What the Pentagon Papers mean is that that the US is heading for military rule. An incumbent or a candidate without the endorsement of the Joint Chiefs of Staff cannot win or keep his power. This form of military rule is not so much to save the empire from the Russians in Europe and the Chinese in Asia – the US Army, Navy and Air Force are already losing both of those wars. They have leaked their warnings to a hapless boy at an airbase on Cape Cod in order to cut their losses and save themselves to fight another day.

Accordingly, the Pentagon Papers signal the start of their fight to the end of the caligulists at the State Department like Antony Blinken (right) and Victoria Nuland (centre), and the so-called neocon (horse for president) faction in the Democratic Party.

This also means that the alternative US military voices whom you see on Youtube – Colonel Douglas McGregor, Lieutenant Colonel Anthony Shaffer, Major Scott Ritter and also CIA veterans like Philip Giraldi, Larry Johnson, and Ray McGovern – they too are trying to save the US empire. They aren’t pro-Russian or pro-Chinese. They don’t want to see the US forces defeated so comprehensively that none of the allies will agree to pay the bill to be protected.

Watch Shaffer tell Andrew Napolitano on Friday, April 14, what you have been hearing on air in War of the Worlds and in print for much longer. Shaffer insists he and his intelligence community colleagues, in military uniform and at the CIA, know everything about Russia from the raw intelligence they have been gathering. This is a mistake of fact and a folly of judgement. It’s exceptionalism reworked to a fresh purpose.

Left: Andrew Napolitano interviews Tony Shaffer, April 14, 2023. Right: Official photograph of the JCS, December 2020 — Mark Milley is second from left, Charles Brown third from right. No photograph of Milley and Brown closer together has been found on the JCS website or in media publication.

That’s the purpose of the Pentagon Papers which General Mark Milley, retiring chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) and General Charles Brown, the US Air Force (USAF) chief of staff and candidate successor to Milley, have been trying to achieve since an operation to leak the highest classified JCS documents on the war in Ukraine was started through the Air Force chain of command from its top to its bottom last December. This operation did not strike target until April – the slowest guided missile firing in USAF history.

Napolitano has been a trial litigator and a court judge in New Jersey, so he knows how to ask a forensic question to get an answer at the courtroom standard — the balance of probabilities for civil crimes, beyond reasonable doubt for homicide. Here are Napolitano’s questions for Shaffer:

  • How does a 21-year old Air National Guardsman get the highest US security clearance? (Answer: he doesn’t.)
  • The Pentagon Papers on the Ukraine were circulating in January. It’s now April. Didn’t the Defense Department know about this until now? (Answer: that’s a question still to be answered.)
  • Will Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and JCS Chairman Milley suffer for the evidence that they have been lying on oath to Congress? (Answer: these are issues.)

Napolitano and Shaffer have missed the difference between the batch of ten Ukraine war papers first reported nationally in the New York Times on April 6, and the CIA papers which have followed in their dozens.

Russian officials didn’t miss this significance. But in their public response they have limited themselves to saying there is nothing new, not already published, about the CIA releases. “The fact that the United States has been spying on various heads of state, especially in European capitals, for a long time now, has come up repeatedly, causing various scandalous situations,” the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. About the CIA reports of Russian military staff conflicts, also repeating Russian media reporting and public debate, Peskov added: “I’m doubting… the author’s understanding of the essence of what is happening inside Russia.”

“There has been no need to read leaks or articles on this,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova added on April 12. “It is clear that NATO, the United States and Great Britain are not just deeply involved, but are directly conducting and managing the destabilisation of the situation in this region through the Kiev regime. Nobody is hiding this. Relevant statements are made every day. They say they are not a party to the conflict. But they have never hidden any information about their involvement. On the contrary, this has been endlessly ‘elevated’, assigned a special historical role, and called ‘their mission.’ There is nothing more to expect or analyse. Nuances or additional facts may appear, but hardly anyone on the planet has any doubt that the collective West, headed by the US and Great Britain, are behind this. Regarding surveillance, I will not comment on planted stories and anonymous sources. It is useless and counterproductive. The fact is that this is not news either. Surveillance is a fact, first of all, on their allies, those who trust them. Did someone not know this? If so, it means that people are not following the agenda.”

Listen to the broadcast.

For the discussion of the role of Germany in the war against Russia, Heinrich Bücker (Buecker) leads in the second and third segments. According to a Berlin district court judge in January, Buecker is one of the leading voices in Germany today threatening “public order”.

In a summary judgement, without hearing courtroom evidence, Judge Tobias Pollman said Buecker’s criminal offence came under Section 140 of the Criminal Code and had consisted of “publicly approving a crime of aggression (Section 138 of the International Criminal Code) in a manner likely to disturb the public peace at a meeting.” Pollmann charged Buecker of approving in his speech “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in violation of international law, the illegality of which you knew.”

Read Buecker’s full speech, translated into English, here:

Left: the speech on June 22, 2022, at the Soviet Memorial in Berlin’s Treptow Park on the 81st anniversary of Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union; read this report of the case here. Right, Heinrich Buecker at the Coop Anti-War Café in Berlin; follow the website. The Restaurant Guru says: “Try nicely cooked berliner. Guests visit COOP Anti-War cafe bar to taste good coffee. The well-trained staff works hard, stays positive and makes this place great. The fast service is something these restaurateurs care about. The homey decor and cool atmosphere let clients feel relaxed here.”

On warfare by the Germans and Americans, it was the English soldier Spike Milligan who said in one of his war memoirs that the Americans had become the new Germans. He died before this war reveals that, led in Berlin by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the Germans have now become the new Americans. From his grave in Winchelsea, Milligan is still talkative on the subject of warfighting and the false bravado it can cause among caligulists and praetorians alike.