by Claudiu Secara

The problem with trying to solve the world’s problems is that most people, especially in the West, are bound by traditional principles of thinking. One is that the Earth is flat and another is that we are moving in a direction of linear extrapolation, in an eschatological way.

Not only does the man on the street think this way, but our politicians and intellectual elites think the same. We discuss and search for the best solution. But today’s solution is bound to be tomorrow’s problem in a dialectical, dynamic cycle of contradictions.

We argue over what is “the best system.” Serious people believe in this system or that system. The free market was one such mantra for decades, if not longer. Socialism is another magic solution. We argued ad nauseam about the success story of Singapore vs the Soviet Union, or the United States vs China. Which system is best?

But we know at least since the Classics that everything is transient. What is born today must die tomorrow. The world moves in cycles.

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. Is there anything of which one can say, “Look! This is something new”? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our time.

Or as Giambattista Vico describes it in Aristotelian socio-political terms.

The classical Aristotelian account on the matter of political cycles distinguishes five forms of public government: monarchy, aristocracy, oligarchy, democracy, and tyranny.

In the beginning there were what Giambattista Vico called (1)domestic monarchies9 – the rule of the supreme sovereign over all of a nation’s life. His absolute power and the general equality of all his subjects are, however, only of relative endurance. Slowly, an invisible process of stratification takes place. This process consolidates itself into (2) the constitutional monarchy. The absolute rule of the autocracy is, at first, diminished by an emerging power-sharing compact made with the growing class of the (3) oligarchic aristocracy. This is meant to consolidate a common defense against the growing ranks of the poor, but classical class warfare is the sorrowful consequence of the new compromise. Soon, the new order explodes into violence and the (4) reign of the popular government begins.

Unstable from the beginning, the self-empowered legislature of the many soon extends to all in an inexorable evolution toward social dissolution, from democratic participation to generalized anarchy. Yet this unbearable result and the obvious collapse of former social structures call for the reinstallment of the rule of order and unity through the (5) civil (presidential) tyrant. For Aristotle, tyrants arose “from among the common people and the masses, in opposition to the notables, so that the demos should not suffer injustice at their hands. . . The great majority of the tyrants began as demagogues, so to speak, and won confidence by calumniating the notables. — The New CommonWealth. From Bureaucratic Corporatism to Socialist Capitalism p. 258.

For centuries Russia was a backwater, a hopeless, sclerotic giant with feet of clay. Today, Russia is one of the most dynamic societies on Earth, with the energies of its millions of citizens engaged in finding and developing innovative solutions in technology and creative thinking. Yesterday, the United States, as the workshop of the universe, was building a New World, but today it is a gerontocracy choking from lack of exercise and run by morons.

The very success of the American open system has caused the paralysis of today. At the same time the monolithic command system of the vast landmass of Russia now enables the mobilization of its vast resources in one swoop.

We are misled in engaging in this competitive existential struggle to overcome the other, the challenger to our way of life, as if this would guarantee our security and happiness until the end of the world. Our minor successes today are only tactical, while strategically the battle goes on forever.

The discovery of bronze tools gave an insurmountable advantage to the lucky few . . . until some other lucky ones came up with iron tools.

The idea that our struggles have a terminal point, are finite and we can achieve our goal, is a fallacy, like the mirage at the end of the horizon. This fallacy gives us motivation as the target seems near and reachable, but at the same time it causes the aggressiveness and the sense of impunity, the impression that our adversaries are just about to be wiped off the face of the Earth. It’s a rat race, a hamster wheel, it’s like driving on the highway always trying to pass that one last car in front of you.

The US has lived for the past 70 years in such an ideological mirage, proclaiming itself the ultimate hegemon, based on full-spectrum domination of the rest of the world.

The problem here is not so much one of technological shortcoming but of philosophical immaturity. The naivety of such a crazy belief defies credulity, but the leaders and the man on the street really believe that the United States has reached the end point of history, the end point on its flat Earth.

More mature societies who have had their share of highs and lows are a bit more humbled by the experience, but not the United States. And that is a cause of trouble for the rest of the world.

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Claudiu Secara is the author of The New CommonWealth. From Bureaucratic Corporatism to Socialist Capitalism (1998) and Time & Ego. Judeo-Christian Egotheism and the English Industrial Revolution (1997)

by Claudiu Secara

The biggest conundrum in describing the current conflict in Ukraine is how to reconcile the many arguments for the Ukraine war as a fake war (see The Fake War) with the arguments that the world is sliding into WWIII (World War III is Coming).

1. Neither of the principals, that is the US or Russia, is deploying its serious weapons, although some prototypes are being tested. As Putin said, “We haven’t even started yet.” But the same can be said about the US. None of the most advanced weapons has been used yet. Both sides are using obsolete, almost World War II vintage hardware, disposable overstocked weapons, although they may be surreptitiously testing partial subsystems of the new weapons.

2. The focus is on Ukraine as a very isolated battleground; there’s no palpable threat of escalation to make everyone fear an imminent worldwide conflagration, which is carefully and declaratively circumscribed. “Don’t worry, this is only about Ukraine,” and frankly, how many people are losing sleep over the Ukrainians and their backwater country? The Western European population has very little sense of Ukrainians as being in any way part of their common history, common heritage, historical shared belonging. Yes, the mass media campaign is relentless in whipping up pro-Ukrainian emotions, but the man on the street couldn’t care less. Ironically, even the East Europeans have little appetite for the boorish Ukrainians. The Poles mostly covet Lvov, the Hungarians salivate for Transcarpathia, the Romanians have claims on Bukovina, and even the Slovaks dream of Zakarpatska. They all would like to see a weaker, much diminished, and even humiliated Ukraine.

3. The sanctions that never bite are another sign of a fake war. How amateurish are the Western epigones in using sanctions against their Enemy Number One, sanctions that backfire on their own economies 100 percent while, as a matter of fact, strengthening Russia’s economy? Ms. Annalena is a jurist by trade, Joe Borrell is an aeronautical engineer, Macron is a banker’s accountant; none of them has any background or experience in international economics, history, diplomacy, military affairs, anything relevant to strategic planning and policy making.
None of them was educated as a statesman, laboring as an apprentice in the shadow of his/her elder mentor with years of experience. While the Klaus-Schwab-school of WEF agents helped their careers and skipped years spent as students of world affairs (or at least of the last 100 years of history), obviously they are still simple sycophants with no standing or understanding of their own roles.

4. Such nincompoops are given the command of the Western Crusaders. In a real war, there would be charismatic leaders to electrify their nations and inspire a surge of warmongering, as in the lead-up to World War I, or even like the Franco-German war of 1870, when the young were exalted and drawn into the frenzy of the romantic killing fields, in the muddy trenches of Europe. Not even Zelensky’s theatrical talents can convince the Ukrainian population that this is a war of survival for the Ukrainian nation. Instead, millions upon millions of young people (5, 8 million ?) have abandoned their own country under “existential threat” rather than feeling motivated to volunteer for the front.

5. This also ties in with a similar sanitized version of the war on Russia’s side. No massive war preparations, not much hardship inflicted upon the population. Life goes on in Russia just as before, in fact a bit better. Imports are defying the sanctions and the economy is growing. How does that compare with the utter suffering the nation went through in any of the previous wars? No mass mobilization with a great campaign and festive parades. Rather, the new combatants are contract workers, this time army workers with good pay and all the perks. Mr. Putin himself seems more concerned with visiting schools and sharing past stories with school children rather than making fiery speeches to the mobilized at the front. Let’s have a good education and even a better culture and good manners.

6. There are other signs that are incompatible with preparation for an existential war by the West. The obsessive focus on climate “change.” “Climate change?” Is is warming or cooling?! Hmm, both. — So, the West is de-industrializing and is destroying the very basis for the West’s war economy, is diminishing the access to the sources of all the inputs for Western industrial powerhouses, and is focusing on polar bears while a slow-growing army of unemployed is getting more and more desperate and restless. Desperate and restless? Like the working classes in the 1930s? Is there any parallel between the 1930s and the 2020s?

7. We come now to the topic of the Covid pandemic that wasn’t. That was the wake up call.

8. We learned that there is a concern about overpopulation, about the limits of our natural resources, about the need to reduce the global population. Come China and India on the development train, joined by a number of other Asians — the Indonesians alone are a lot; then the explosive population in Africa, Latin America and the Arab countries — how is that going to work? Is there enough oil in the ground to last forever and provide a high living standard for 8 billion, 9 billion, 10 billion+ humans? — That’s the question that the leaders at the Davos conclaves are discussing.

9. They don’t lose sleep over Ukraine, but they do lose sleep over the West’s diminishing leverage over the direction of the world and the inescapable rush to hit the wall of resource depletion and resource allocation. This is nothing new in the history of mankind. Every technological or scientific advance has caused a population explosion. Especially in resource-poor but innovative Western Europe.

10. There is an irony in that the more a nation is struggling to survive, the more innovative it is in finding ways to overcome the penury of resources. From inventing and developing intensive agriculture to inventing and developing a whole new art of industry and technology, pioneering sectors of human activity never seen before, the West has led the way for the rest of the world.

11. Unfortunately, every new leap ahead brings short-term relief, as it is followed by a new population explosion which soon nullifies the success. Sometimes a new solution is found, but sometimes a population adjustment is needed on an emergency basis. In the best cases this adjustment was made through the old-fashioned colonization of new settlements. From the time of the Greek colonies to the waves of emigration to the newly discovered continents of Americas and Australia, that was a time-honored relief valve for overpopulation.

12. And then, there is war.

13. On some level, the causes of war are described as the fight over resources, whether land or raw materials. From the Roman Empire’s population explosion and the ensuing need for more grain (and silver and gold), to the Mongol or Gothic migration, they all were preceded by a population explosion. World War I involved the emerging powers, Germany and Russia, challenging England and at the same time clashing with each other over Eastern Europe and especially over control of the Bosporus Strait — But on a different level, it was the increased population that required more resources and more living space for all of them. In World War II, this was even more explicitly formulated by Germany as the need for lebensraum. Without more people to occupy the new lands, what use would that space have been?

14. The West’s population is stable right now – actually, it is declining quite dramatically. It is the developing world that has a population problem and it is invading the West, by peaceful means for now. That is a fact. And here we have the seeds of the next war. If the West cannot control this secular, long-term population explosion in the developing countries, and that includes China, India and all the rest, potentially Russia too, the West, the laboratory of modern societies, will become a wasteland, like Rome spoiled by the invaders from outside.

15. What’s significant is that the world, but mostly the West, has transitioned from exuberant development to a mood of pessimism about the future and a feeling of foreboding and expectations of some major events and upheavals and decisions to take place.

16. The West is faced with extinction; unless, on Western terms, it takes extreme action to stop and reverse this multilevel trend. And it is clearly actively preparing to do just that. On the same multiple level basis. Using bio warfare, or direct slaughter. It takes time to line up all the chips. — That’s why the West called it Agenda 2030, that’s the deadline.

Note for Those Who Need Help: The West is cornered and is desperate. Desperate and cornered animals act aggressively and attack the more powerful. The West is in a dire predicament and it will go to the brink. There is no evidence of self restrain or retraction. It will escalate and trigger World War III. All the signs converge to the same conclusion: The Long War is underway and it will change everything we know. — The West cannot win, but neither can the developing world continue its expansion.

That’s the conundrum.

Watch this:

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Claudiu Secara is the author of The New CommonWealth. From Bureaucratic Corporatism to Socialist Capitalism (1998) and Time & Ego. Judeo-Christian Egotheism and the English Industrial Revolution (1997)

by Claudiu Secara

Is the war in Ukraine going through its last convulsions before the Ukrainian army is blown out of existence by Russian firepower? The opposition-to-the-war-in-Ukraine party within the US, now personified by Tucker Carlson and his new buddy Victor Orban of Hungary, the Trumpists and a certain alternative media, Scott Ritter and all, are singing the-end-is-here, the Ukrainians are toast, the Russians cannot be defeated. The Ukrainians didn’t even make it through the “crumple zone”, didn’t even reach the Russians’ first line of defense, etc.

But let’s make a sober analysis of the situation. It seems to me that we are heading straight into the pre-planned WWIII. Just like that.

At the moment, the Ukrainians are being used by the Americans to probe and map out as much as possible of Russia’s defensive dispositive systems – the locations and capabilities of all their remote sensing capabilities, response time, and countermeasures, etc. The Ukrainians, as sacrificial scouts, are sent in to test the defensive capabilities, first on the front line, then further afield, 300 Km, then 700 Km, and so on, all pre-planned by the US strategic warmongers. This is very similar to what they did in the Gulf War with Saddam Hussein’s defenses. For a number of years there was a no-fly zone, then partition of the North, where the Kurds were used by the US to probe the Iraqi army, and then the South, where the Kuwaitis were used to allow the US army close monitoring of Saddam’s capabilities. We are now in that pre-preparation timeframe.

But can the comically inept and demented Biden lead the West into a WWIII? NO WAY!

Let’s think again. WWII started in about 1932 with the ascension of Hitler as Chancellor of Germany, under the old and decrepit President of Germany, Hindenburg. It took almost another 10 years of German industrial mobilization, then the mobilization of the people, war propaganda, secret transfer of military technology from the U.S. side (such as radar technology) and so on before everybody figured out that all of that meant War.

Biden’s role today is the same as Hindenburg’s. He’s just a decoy, a deceptive clown, not a serious adversary.

But meanwhile the Western Axis is forming and building up minute by minute. Oh, Orban assures us, Russia is a people of 145 million, unified around the soul of Mother Russia, they are not moved by illusory propaganda like liberty, or democracy. Their central focus is the security of their people, the defense of their ancestral lands, the centrality of their nation. Add to that 1.4 billion Chinese, plus some Central Asia people, Iran, etc.

Can the US fantasize about defeating such a colossus, close to 2 billion people armed to their teeth?

Yes, they can fantasize, and the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Yes, the nuclear option is one possible complicating factor, but let’s do some more math.

Almost 350 million Americans, 450 million Europeans, 70-80 million Canadians and Australians, plus 100 million Japanese, 50 million South Koreans – that is already an army of 1 billion. And they are first-class nations, unlike the still mostly rural, “developing” challengers. There are a few fence-sitters like the 115 million Philippines, the 275 million Indonesians, Central Americans, etc. And how about the Indians who alone can match by number the Chinese? And they are worked up assiduously by the Western Axis.

As far as advances in war technology, there is much to be discovered by the public and acknowledged by the secret weapons developers. Advances on all sides are made almost on a daily basis.

On the political theater, Trump is just as much of a charlatan as Biden is a crooked politician, good material for public distraction. Now, Trump the candidate is against the war in Ukraine and is against the masks and the vaccine mandates as supposedly employed by the Bidens to block Trump’s chances of re-election. But remember, it was Trump the President who introduced the lockdowns and the masks, who appointed the Judas goat Fauci, who spearheaded the “warp-speed” vaccine development, etc. It was Trump who introduced the first sanctions against Russia and then against China. Biden or Trump, it makes no difference. Maybe only for Israel Trump is preferable.

So what is the alternative for the West, if not War? The West is bankrupt, the speed of industrialization taking place outside the West is mind blowing. China just announced the breakthrough in designing and producing the 5G chipset, the last stronghold of American technological dominance. In the race in space, even India has leapfrogged the US and together with the other majors, Russia and China, they all are fast moving out of sight.

So what alternatives does the West have for protecting their beautiful garden? In the previous two world wars, it maneuvered to set the rest of the world on fire and have it self destruct. That is something that could possibly be a game changer for the West. No war? Death with certainty. Even worse. Sooner or later, tribunals are looming. But a devastating war creates a new ground-leveling environment and those who are the Master Arsonists can hope to get away and ahead.

It doesn’t mean that the next war will be like a video game of the Gulf War. No, not by any means. It doesn’t mean that the West is the sure winner, or even the favorite. — But who has the best chance in such a war? one wants to know. But it is the exact business of the war to determine that. A war is only possible when both sides are equally strong, or at least when each side believes it is capable of winning. And sometimes only pure chance can turn the balance in one’s favor, as in the case of the huge typhoon which saved the Japanese navy from defeat by the Mongol invasion in 1281.

It only means that the West has no other option between slow death or going to an all-out war. The time for a negotiated compromise has passed. The long historical line of crimes and lies cannot be kept under wraps. Hence the Black Lives Matter and the anti-“white supremacy” cover-up fallacy. But even the Africans can see through and demand justice. The Moon landing, 9/11, the Covid genocide are the lies, and the crimes – the coups and the colonial atrocities and centuries-long crimes against most of humanity – are high on the agenda of a potential upcoming tribunal.

Not so long ago, that dilemma of war or compromise was mostly theoretical. But we have now come to the historical crossroad, when this is no longer an academic debate. The preparations for war are very far advanced and the deadline is near.

And it looks like we will be going to all-out war. Soon.