Is Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency Doomed to Fail?

Here’s what investor Peter Schiff wrote on X:

“I hate to rain on this parade, but the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is not a real department. It exists outside of government and has no authority to do anything. Like any one of a number of independent think tanks that already exist, it’s free to make any recommendations it wants, and the government is free to ignore them all. Even if the Trump administration actually proposes some of the DOGE recommendations, they mean nothing unless Congress votes to pass them, which it won’t.

Since no Democrats will vote in favor of eliminating any government department or agency—except perhaps the Space Force—the House will need over 98% of Republican votes. This is nearly impossible to achieve with so many RINOs still in the House and so many representing swing districts. In the Senate, even if all Republicans vote in favor of the cuts, they still don’t have 60 votes.

Also, regarding firing government workers, the civil service unions make that nearly impossible. The best Trump can do is allow the workforce to shrink naturally through attrition. That will help, but the savings over the course of his term will be minimal.

Of course, the nearly impossible task will become completely impossible after the Republicans lose the House in the midterms. That is normal for the party in power. In two years, Trump and the Republicans will own the economy. With stagflation firmly entrenched by then, disappointed voters will again vote for change. But as usual, there will be no real change until an actual dollar and sovereign debt crisis finally forces our leaders to act.”

Understanding How Trump Formulates Policy

by Fyodor Lukyanov

The key is understanding how the US president-elect formulates policy, and his background in the business world

Donald Trump formulates his political course using memes. Strategies, programs and action plans are then drawn up by people around him. But the impetus comes from the main character’s pronouncements.

That’s why we hear the US president-elect promise to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. It sounds unrealistic, to say the least, but it reflects his desire. Which is obviously a conscious one. Which means it shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.

It’s a pointless exercise to speculate on the basis of leaks and anonymous comments from people – supposedly – close to Trump about what he really has in mind. In all likelihood, he doesn’t yet know himself what he will do. What matters is something else: how Trump’s approach to Ukraine will differ from that of the current presidential administration, and whether he even understands rapprochement.

With regards to the first of these, the difference is stark. President Joe Biden and his team represent a cohort of politicians whose views were shaped by the end of the Cold War. America’s ideological and moral righteousness – and its unquestioned power superiority – determined not even the possibility, but rather the necessity of world domination. The emergence of rival powers that could challenge certain elements of the liberal world order has been met with fierce resistance.

That’s because this setup didn’t allow for any deviation from its basic principles and refused to allow for compromise on fundamental issues. Russia’s actions in Ukraine are seen as an encroachment on the very essence of the liberal order. Hence the call for Moscow’s “strategic defeat.”

Trump stands for a change in positioning. Instead of global dominance, there will a vigorous defense of specific American interests. Priority will be given to those that bring clear benefits (not in the long term, but now). Belief in the primacy of domestic over foreign policy, which has always characterized Trump’s supporters and has now spread throughout the Republican Party, means that the choice of international issues is going to be selective. Preserving the moral and political hegemony of the US is not an end in itself, but a tool. In such a system of priorities, the Ukrainian project loses the destiny it has in the eyes of the adherents of the liberal order. It becomes a pawn in a larger game.

Another peculiarity of the president-elect is that even his detractors largely admit that he doesn’t see war as an acceptable tool. Yes, he’ll use hard bargaining, muscle-flexing and coercive pressure (as practiced in his usual business). But not destructive armed conflict, because that is irrational. Trump doesn’t seem to have a twisted heart when he talks about the need to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine and Gaza.

Now let’s look at his methods. Trump’s previous term offers two examples of his approach to regional conflicts. One was the ‘Abraham Accords’, an agreement that facilitated formal relations between Israel and a number of Arab countries. The second was the meetings with Kim Jong-un, including a full-fledged summit in Hanoi.

The first was the result of shuttle diplomacy by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The powerful financial interests of America, the Gulf monarchies and Israel led to a series of shady political deals. The current situation in the region is many times worse than it was then, but it cannot be said that the arrangements have collapsed. The framework is still in place. But such a foundation can hardly be considered a model. The system of relations in the Middle East is very special, and the scale of the Ukraine conflict is incomparably greater.

The second example is negative. Trump hastily tried to shift the systemic confrontation by resorting to a spectacle. The bet was on pleasing the ego of the interlocutor – the first North Korean leader to meet with a US president. It didn’t work, because beyond that there was no idea how to solve the real complex problems.

However, we can’t simply project the legacy of 2016-2020 onto the period ahead. Trump has gained some experience. His environment is different now, and his electoral mandate is what he could only have dreamed of back then. There is more room for maneuver than before, but not enough for the genuine concessions needed for a comprehensive agreement with Moscow.

It is in Russia’s interest to remain calm, and to refuse to react to any provocations. Yes, objectively the situation is changing. But now everyone will be talking about the fact that a window of opportunity has opened for a short time, and we must not miss this chance. In crises like the Ukrainian one, there are no simple solutions or easy “shortcuts.” Either this window is a gateway to new stable relations – and it cannot be forced open, but will need a careful approach. Or it’s a portal to an even more brutal struggle, because it births yet another disappointment.

The Hidden Danger Beside Trump: Why Peter Thiel is the Real Threat

by Gerry Nolan via @TheIslanderNews

Trump tried to calm the waters, announcing that Nikki Haley and Mike “Kansas” Pompeo wouldn’t be returning to his team. Smart move, Haley and Kansas, with their cheerleading forever wars and regime change, warmongers and globalist puppets, embody the very swamp Trump claims to drain. But here’s the twist: sitting right beside Trump, grinning like the Cheshire cat, is Peter Thiel, a figure far more insidious than Haley or Pompeo ever were.

Thiel isn’t just another billionaire with influence; he’s a Zionist hawk cloaked in Silicon Valley’s libertarian veneer. For years, his empire, particularly Palantir, has been at the forefront of merging Silicon Valley’s tech prowess with the national security state, feeding both U.S. and Israeli intelligence networks with data-mining capabilities that would make Orwell blush. This isn’t a recent development either, Palantir was designed from its inception as a tool to empower state surveillance, a vision that has seamlessly aligned with the Zionist agenda. In Israel, Thiel’s technology has been used to surveil Palestinian populations, enforcing a brutal occupation under the guise of “security.”

And Thiel’s influence doesn’t stop there. He has deep roots in the U.S. military-industrial complex, aligning closely with the CIA through his early investment from In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s venture capital arm. From the beginning, Palantir was woven into the fabric of America’s intelligence infrastructure, sold as a “defense” tool, while it quietly expanded a surveillance apparatus across the world, from the Occupied Territories to inner cities in the United States. The Zionist vision of control and surveillance has found its ultimate tool in Thiel’s empire – a Trojan horse that’s eroding civil liberties under the radar.

Then there’s the paradox – Thiel, publicly a critic of “wokeism,” has quietly funneled money into (woke) initiatives that stir cultural war within the U.S. It’s an ancient imperial strategy: keep the masses distracted with ideological battles while the real agenda, bolstering Israel’s interests and consolidating a digital surveillance state marches on unopposed. By funding divisive causes and watching America tear itself apart, Thiel isn’t just hedging his bets, he’s ensuring that the spotlight never falls on his own agenda.

For Trump to truly align with the idea of American sovereignty, distancing himself from Thiel isn’t a suggestion but a necessity. Thiel doesn’t represent a populist, patriotic agenda; he represents the apex of corporate, Zionist interests, a technocratic elite intent on tightening its grip over policy and control. If Haley and Pompeo were symbols of the neoconservative swamp, Thiel is the lurking shadow, the hidden hand of a corporate-Zionist cabal with a vested interest in manipulating America’s course.

Trump, this is much more than merely draining the swamp, it’s about draining the Zionist infiltration embedded within Silicon Valley and the intelligence community. The art of the deal this time around means ensuring the U.S. doesn’t remain a puppet of Silicon Valley’s Zionist ambitions. If you’re serious about reclaiming sovereignty, you’ll keep Thiel at arm’s length, not in the seat beside you.

Even Among Russians in Exile, the Myth of Russian Cultural Supremacy Lives On

by Paula Erizanu via The Guardian

Paula Erizanu is a Moldovan journalist and writer based in Chișinău

Many liberal Russians shelter in states once part of the Soviet Union. It’s time that they learned to respect the cultures and languages their nation has so long suppressed

One day in the 1990s, I was playing with my cousin in a local park in Chișinău, the capital of Romanian-speaking Moldova, when two little girls from the Russian-speaking minority asked us what our names were. We told them: Mihai and Maria Paula. They immediately rebaptised us: “Misha i Masha!” To them, we were all Russians after all.

In 2024, such expressions of cultural imperialism are still rife in Putin’s Russia, but you wouldn’t expect to find them among Russian liberals, an estimated million of whom left their country after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

And yet there are still moments like these, such as at a Chișinău concert earlier this year by Russian cult band Mashina Vremeni (Time Machine), whose founder Andrey Makarevich has been branded a “foreign agent” by his home country over his criticism of the invasion. When the crowd was slow to pick up on Makarevich’s attempt to cue up a sing-along, he tried to talk them up: “This is what our nation is like, we never get things right the first time round.” There it was again, that old reflex: “our nation.”

In this particular case, perhaps age can explain, if not excuse, such deeply ingrained attitudes: Mashina Vremeni was founded in 1969, when Moldova was still forced to share a nation with Russia through the Soviet Union.

But the younger members of the supposedly liberal Russian diaspora seem just as prone to revealing slips of the tongue. Tatar pop-rock singer Zemfira, who has also been labelled a foreign agent and has lived in exile since the start of the war, made her debut on the music scene in the late 90s. Yet in the middle of a performance in Chișinău in June, she told her audience that after touring Europe, she felt “at home here because I am a Soviet person”.

Hearing those words from within the crowd, I couldn’t believe that the artist I admired did not realise that her feeling of “home” – probably inspired by the architecture of a city destroyed in the second world war and most Moldovans’ fluency in Russian – was the direct result of Russia once having occupied my country.

Lithuanian philosopher Viktoras Bachmetjevas had a similar experience at a concert by Russian rock musician Boris Grebenshchikov in March last year. Blacklisted in the Soviet Union in the 70s and 80s, and again in Putin’s Russia since 2022, there is little doubt about Grebenshchikov’s dissident credentials. But did he understand that even he, as a Russian citizen at odds with the regime, could still be held accountable for his country’s actions?

“I kept waiting, wanting him to make an anti-war gesture, but he did not,” Bachmetjevas recalls. During the concert, the stage was lit in blue and yellow colours, which the philosopher perceived as too timid a statement of solidarity with Ukraine. “Now is not the time for subtle gestures.”

Bachmetjevas is one of a growing number of intellectuals in central and eastern Europe who propose that we think about post-invasion Russia in the same ethical category as Nazi Germany. While war and other crimes should be persecuted on an individual basis, he argues, responsibility for the country’s conduct in Ukraine cannot be completely offloaded to its political elite. “By definition, political responsibility, which individuals carry as members of their political community, is a collective one,” he says.

Does the fact that the Russian state is a dictatorship not negate the argument for collective responsibility? Bachmetjevas argues that Russia’s citizens allowed democracy to wither away into tyranny, giving up their freedoms in exchange for promises of prosperity and national greatness. “No Russian citizen is single-handedly culpable for what happened and is happening – it is precisely a collective failure.”

Many of the Russians who have left their country since the start of the invasion have settled in Georgia, Armenia, Serbia and Turkey, in the Baltics or other EU states. Yet within the post-2022 Russian diaspora, “very few put in an effort to learn the languages and understand the context of the country they moved to”, argues Armenian anthropologist Lusine Kharatyan. Typically, she says, Russians try harder to integrate in the EU or the US rather than in countries of the former Soviet bloc, where Russian is often still spoken as a second language due to its history of occupation and migration.

Even some members of the liberal Russian diaspora espouse “a nostalgia for a lost ‘greatness’”, Kharatyan adds. Invited to a Russian-in-exile gathering in 2022, the Yerevan-based author said she felt as if she was mostly talked at rather than talked to. Some migrant activists tried to “teach the locals” about urban or environmental issues with little attempt to learn about previous local initiatives, something that Kharatyan attributes to a Russian superiority complex towards “backward and traditional” Armenians.

“While we are supposed to read all those great Russian classics,” she says, Russians volunteering to read Armenian classics was “rarely the case”.

Kyiv-based novelist Andrey Kurkov agrees that notions of Russian cultural supremacy and its political imperialism have become inextricably intertwined: “Pushkin statues in Ukraine are not about literature but about marking Russian territory,” he says. “To prove that they don’t merely want a ‘redecorated Russia’ with one tsar replaced by another.” Kurkov adds that members of the Russian opposition need to “give up on the idea of their greatness”.

There are some positive examples of Russian intellectuals denouncing the imperialist discourse. Journalist Mikhail Zygar wrote his 2023 book War and Punishment: The Story of Russian Oppression and Ukrainian Resistance to tackle seven persistent myths used to justify Moscow’s colonisation of Ukraine.

“Many Russian writers and historians are complicit in facilitating this war,” Zygar writes in the introduction. “It is their words and thoughts over the past 350 years that sowed the seeds of Russian fascism and allowed it to flourish, although many would be horrified today to see the fruits of their labour … We overlooked the fact that, for many centuries, ‘great Russian culture’ belittled other countries and peoples, suppressed and destroyed them.”

When Berlin-based Russian author Vladimir Sorokin, author of the terrifyingly prophetic dystopian novel Day of the Oprichnik, came to meet his Chișinău readers in April earlier this year, he kept mentioning his Romanian translations, respectfully acknowledging the difference between Moldova and his native country.

Russian actor Masha Mashkova, who condemned the invasion of Ukraine and now lives in the US, also added Romanian surtitles to the Chișinău performance of her new play, Nadezhdiny, based on the diary of her Chișinău-born great-great-grandmother, a printer and copy editor who married the Kharkiv-born revolutionary Evgeny Osipovich Zelensky-Nadezhdin. Now on a global tour, Nadezhdiny will also have Latvian surtitles in Riga in an effort to attract local audiences.

“As a Russian, I want to tell people in Moldova that I am aware of being a guest in your country and I respect your choice of language,” Mashkova says. “And I think my great-great-grandmother would have liked that.”

All States Are Empires Of Lies

by Thomas DiLorenzo of The Mises Institute. This article is a version of a speech delivered at the 2024 Mises Institute Supporters Summit.

“Most economists are political apologists masquerading as economists,” wrote Doug Casey in one of his columns.

“They prescribe the way they would like the world to work and tailor theories to help politicians demonstrate the virtue and necessity of their quest for power.”

Moreover, wrote Casey, “The field of economics has been turned into the handmaiden of government in order to give a scientific justification for things the government wants to do.”

This of course is not a new development. Ludwig von Mises was calling the universities of his day “nurseries of socialism” but, thankfully, there is always a remnant of students who resist the statist brainwashing. The above quote about concocted “scientific” justifications for interventionism and socialism, by the way, sounds like a precise definition of Keynes’s General Theory.

Casey’s sound advice is that to be a good citizen one needs to “become your own economist.” Don’t rely on the state’s mouthpieces in the “media” or even academe for your economic knowledge. Educate yourself to some degree; it doesn’t take a university degree. Indeed, everything we do at the Mises Institute is geared toward helping anyone anywhere to become their own economist (preferably Austrian School and not Keynesian or Post Keynesian!) and avoid being bamboozled by the state and its court historian economists.

Mises never joined the American Economic Association, the association of academic economists founded in the 1880s. The association’s founding document provides a clue as to why. “The state is an educational and ethical agency whose positive aid is an indispensable condition of human progress,” the document purred. “The doctrine of laissez faire,” on the other hand, “is unsafe in politics and unsound in morals,” said the statist moral scolds who founded the American Economic Association.

There are exceptions, the Austrian School economists being the most prominent, but the majority of academic economists view themselves as advisors or potential advisors to the state. They are Rothbard’s “court historians” with degrees in economics instead of history. The role that they serve is the same as all “intellectuals” in our almost 100 percent state-funded universities. As Rothbard put it: “The majority [of the electorate] must be persuaded by ideology that their government is good, wise, and at least inevitable. Promoting this ideology . . . is the vital task of the ‘intellectuals.’” In return, the “intellectuals” are given government jobs, grants, placement at prestigious universities, book deals, and myriad other political payoffs. (Mises wrote that history, law, and economics are the disciplines most widely used to bamboozle the public about the supposedly good, wise, and inevitable state).

Take the Fed – please (as Rodney Dangerfield would say). Economist Larry White published a journal article several years ago that revealed that about 75 percent of all articles published in academic economic journals on the subject of monetary policy are published by economists who are in some way associated with the Fed. As Milton Friedman once said, “If you want a career as a monetary economist it is best not to criticize the major employer in your field.” And so they do not.

If there is ever any criticism it is always constructive criticism about how to supposedly become even better at central planning. Most Americans are rationally ignorant of the Fed, and what little they do know about it is overwhelmingly shaped by the Fed’s “court historians,” especially the ones who teach economics at colleges and universities. The Austrian economists (but not all of them) are the only ones to challenge the existence of the Fed and call for its abolition.

In addition to being the federal government’s legalized counterfeiting arm, the Fed is also another appendage of the government’s massive propaganda apparatus. The laughingly labeled “independent” Fed’s research, according to economist Emre Kuvvet writing in The Independent Review, increasingly focuses on “climate change, gender, race, and inequality” – the “woke” political agenda of the Democrat party. The one true statement that Joe Biden made as president was “It’s not Milton Friedman’s Fed anymore.”

The New York Fed has always been considered to be the most powerful and influential of all the Fed branches. Its homepage defines its mission as a “desire to root out the intolerable inequities and injustice grounded in systemic racism . . . steadfast in our commitment to work for a more equitable economy and society.” A clearer definition of socialism would be hard to find.

Kuvvet found that of all the employees of the Fed’s Board of Governors there are 97 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

“Leadership positions” on the Board consist of 45 Democrats and 1 Republican. As I said, it’s just another D.C. government propaganda mill.

Some Examples of the Empire of Economic Lies

A typical introductory economics textbook devotes most space to endless stories of “market failure” (free-rider problems, externalities, monopoly and oligopoly, monopolistic competition, asymmetric information, and on and on), and almost nothing about entrepreneurship, the cornerstone of capitalism.

It wasn’t always like that. When the first federal antitrust law was passed in 1890 (the Sherman Antitrust Act) the entire economics profession, which was very small at the time, opposed then new law as being inherently incompatible with competition, as Jack High and I proved by quoting all of them in a July 1988 Economic Inquiry article. They all viewed competition like the Austrian economists always have – as a dynamic, rivalrous process of discovery and entrepreneurship, and thought that antitrust law could only disrupt that process and distort markets.

By the 1930s a new and more “scientific-sounding” theory of “perfect” competition had been invented, which asserted that competitive perfection required all homogenous products and prices in an industry, perfect information in the minds of buyers and sellers, costless entry into and exit from industry, an “many” firms, whatever that might mean.

For the next half century and more, economists would spin thousands o tall tales about how the real world fell short of this “perfection,” defined as market failure, and prescribed regulation, control, nationalization, or regimentation by presumably wise and, well, perfect politicians and bureaucrats. UCLA economist Harold Demsetz labeled this dishonest method of analysis “the Nirvana fallacy”: Comparing the real world to an unachievable never never land of Nirvana. As F.A. Hayek once described it, “In perfect competition there is no competition.” That is, there could not be product differentiation, price cutting, advertising, research and development, the rise to the top of a few superior-performing firms in an industry – all the ingredients of genuine competition.

Generations of students have also been taught that in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries large-scale production of electricity, water supply, telephone services and other similar products was producing “natural” (i.e., free market) monopolies. Governments then stepped in and legally mandated public utility monopolies, supposedly to be regulated “in the public interest.” I proved this to be yet another falsehood in my paper, “They Myth of Natural Monopoly.” There was vigorous competition in all these industries. They were monopolized by the state, not the free market, with loot-sharing agreements whereby state and local governments would share in the monopoly profits created by their government-mandated monopolies.

Then there’s the Big Lie of the Sherman Antitrust Act which was supposedly needed because of “rampant monopolization” in the 1880s as the industrial revolution proceeded in America. In an article in The International Review of Law and Economics I showed that the industries being accused of monopolization at the time were by far the most competitive, dynamic, price-cutting, innovative, and production-expanding industries in America. The purpose of the Sherman Act was to stifle competition, not to “protect” it.

One of the most ridiculous things taught to generations of economics students was that because of the free-rider problem the U.S. would be spending far too little on “national defense.” “Efficiency” requires coercive taxation. There are economists who have defended Pentagon corruption and fraud on the basis that it expands defense spending, which is supposedly hindered by that nasty free rider problem. Who on earth would define Pentagon spending as “efficient”? !

It was only in the past ten years that the “mainstream” of the economics profession finally discovered that the massive interventions of the New Deal actually made the Great Depression more severe and longer lasting, something the Austrian economists have said all along. This Big Revelation was made in an article in the prestigious Journal of Political Economy by Professor Lee Ohanian of UCLA, an editor of the American Economic Review at the time. Better late than never.

Nobel prizes in economics have been awarded for many theories of “market failure” that subsequent research proved to be bogus. Janet Yellen’s husband, George Akerloff, was a co-recipient of the award for a paper that, in 1970, predicted that the used car market would soon disappear because of “asymmetric information” between buyers and sellers. He apparently never heard of thirty-day warranties that allow car buyers to determine whether or not they had been sold a “lemon.”

David Card was awarded a Nobel prize for a paper claiming that minimum wage laws do not cause unemployment that was called “deeply flawed” by a National Bureau of Economic Research redo of his study. There are many similar episodes.

Economics students are taught that the root cause of pollution is profit seeking, which ignores the fact that the worst pollution in all the world over the past century, by far, was in the socialist countries of the world in the twentieth century that prohibited private profit seeking. A corollary to the profit-seeking-causes-pollution theory is that wise and benevolent government bureaucrats are needed to solve this problem. This not only ignores political reality, but also ignores how the absence of property rights causes many pollution problems in the first place, and also how entrepreneurs solve many “externality” problems because it is profitable to do so.

In public finance students are taught that tax “loopholes” are inefficient because they supposedly create “artificial” market distortions. It’s much more efficient, they are taught, to let government bureaucrats spend more of your money. Then there’s the cornerstone of Keynesian economics – the canard of “the paradox of thrift” which asserts that savings reduces consumption, which in turn reduces GDP, which leads to lower savings. This theory has “justified” confiscatory taxation of interest income on savings for decades.

The intellectual godfather of mainstream economics will probably always be Paul Samuelson, whose Principles of Economics textbook dominated textbook sales for forty years, with almost all other textbooks during that time being imitations of his book. The statist bias that permeated that book and the others like it can be encapsulated by what Samuelson wrote in his 1988 edition – a prediction that by the year 2000 Soviet GDP would be larger than U.S. GDP.

All of this demonstrates why Austrian economics is more important now than ever. The economics profession has not been immune from the cult of political correctness. In fact, it was politically incorrect before political correctness was cool, as Mises’ comment about how the universities of his day were “nurseries of socialism” shows. Doug Casey was right when he wrote that most economists are political apologists masquerading as economists. Yours Truly recognized this as a college student decades ago, and was blown away by the discovery of Mises and the Austrian School, the writings of which very clearly showed that the Austrians were unique in that they were powerfully devoted to the intellectual search for the truth about how the economic world (and beyond) works, and how governments don’t work, and were not at all interested in being apologists for the plundering class.

What really changes with Trump?

WORLD

Lucas Leiroz

© Photo: SCF

Despite Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, there are no signs that US foreign policy will undergo significant changes, particularly with regard to the conflict in Ukraine. Despite Trump’s campaign rhetoric, which highlighted a desire to reassess international alliances and reduce US involvement in foreign conflicts, current geopolitical conditions and domestic pressures within the United States make it difficult to predict the success of any disruptive action by Washington in the current conflict.

It is important to remember that, although Trump has presented himself as a leader opposed to “endless wars” and has advocated, on several occasions, a more isolationist stance, his previous presidency has already shown that, when confronted with the realities of global power and the strategic commitments of the United States, he has maintained policies largely aligned with the interests of the so-called “political class” and the military-industrial complex. During his first term, Trump adopted an assertive approach towards Russia, even while at the same time making ambiguous statements and demonstrating a certain sympathy for Vladimir Putin. The continuation of military support for Ukraine and the tightening of sanctions against Russia are examples of how his foreign policy, despite his promises of disengagement, has been sensitive to domestic pressures and the need to maintain the position of the United States as the leader of the West – even if to some extent acknowledging the beginning of a more polycentric order.

With his re-election, the continuation of the policy of support for Ukraine could be a direct reflection of this reality. The current geopolitical context – with the ongoing war in Ukraine, Moscow’s resistance to any attempt at external interference in its strategic environment, and the intensification of global tensions – ensures that the United States, regardless of its leadership, will maintain an aggressive stance towards Russia. Military and financial support for Kiev could continue under Trump, albeit with adjustments in terms of volume and type of assistance. Trump may try to reduce the level of direct US commitment, but pressure from the political establishment, the defense industry, and European allies, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, is likely to prevent any drastic change.

Furthermore, electoral considerations and the need to maintain a Republican base that still sees Russia as a significant threat make it difficult for Trump to adopt a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow. Although the former president has spoken out against the continued escalation of the conflict, advocating negotiations and suggesting that European allies should take a more active role, the chances of a real de-escalation remain low. Trump cannot simply ignore the commitments made by the United States to NATO and its allies in Europe, which, in turn, have shown no willingness to accept any form of substantial concessions to Russia, especially regarding Russian territorial claims in the already reintegrated regions.

Furthermore, the domestic situation in the United States could make any attempt at change even more difficult. The opposition of key figures in Congress, both Republican and Democratic, to the idea of a deal with Russia is likely to keep support for Ukraine, if not intact, at least secure to some degree. American foreign policy is largely determined by the military-industrial complex, which sees prolonging the war as a way to fuel demand for weapons and strengthen the US position as the dominant provider of security in the global market. There is no indication that Trump has the ability, or even the interest, to challenge this system in favor of a deal with Moscow.

Finally, while Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggested a shift in US priorities, in practice his victory will not significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine. Pressure from European allies and the US’ own domestic political apparatus will ensure that support for Kiev continues, albeit in less visible forms or with a greater focus on indirect assistance such as mercenaries and intelligence. Russia should therefore prepare for a continuation of the Western policy of containment of its leadership in Eurasia, with the Trump administration likely to focus on trying to negotiate an end to hostilities in a way that favors US interests rather than a genuine peaceful resolution that involves significant concessions to Moscow.

Ultimately, the Trump administration, with all its rhetoric of “America First,” will be hostage to the complex and deep structures of US domestic power and NATO demands. What seemed like a possible reorientation in relations with Russia will probably become just another chapter in the continuity of Western policy of confrontation, with some tactical modifications but with little chance of substantial transitions.

In fact, without Kamala Harris, the chance of nuclear escalation in the conflict is reduced, but the end of hostilities will not be achieved by American will, but by the Russian assessment that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved – which will certainly still take some time to happen.

World’s Largest Natural Resources by Country

via ZeroHedge

Natural resources are the backbone of modern manufacturing, necessary to produce everything around us.

According to 2021 data from Statista, 10 countries dominate the global natural resource landscape, each holding vast reserves critical for various industries.

Russia’s $75 Trillion in Natural Resources

Russia leads the pack with natural resources valued at $75 trillion, largely consisting of coal, natural gas, oil, and rare earth metals. At the end of 2018, Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment valued the country’s mineral reserves at approximately $1.44 trillion.

In terms of global share, Russia is unmatched in natural gas, holding the world’s largest proven reserves at 1.32 quadrillion cubic feet as of 2020—nearly 20% of the global total. Russia also ranks as a gold powerhouse.

Other Resource Giants

The United States ranks second, with an estimated $45 trillion in natural resources, including coal, timber, natural gas, and valuable metals like gold.

In Saudi Arabia and Canada, oil wealth drives natural resources, placing these countries third and fourth on the list. Saudi Arabia, with its vast oil fields, has been a leader in global energy markets. Canada, on the other hand, also benefits from substantial uranium deposits and is home to some of the world’s largest lumber companies.

Further down the list, China has vast coal reserves, positioning it as the top producer of the fuel.

Mineral-rich Brazil and Australia are leading producers of metals like iron ore, while Australia is also a top exporter of coal.

Trump Launches Pro Israel Rampage



US President-elect Donald Trump plans to clamp down on Iran to undermine its alleged support for Hamas and Hezbollah, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing sources. The approach will reportedly be similar to the ‘maximum pressure’ policy that marked Trump’s first term, and could be exacerbated by a personal vendetta over allegations that Tehran plotted to assassinate him.

Widely known as an Iran hawk, Trump spearheaded America’s unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which sought to curb Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for significant sanctions relief. Trump argued that the deal did little to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and reimposed crippling oil, trade, and financial sanctions on the country.

In 2020, Trump authorized a strike that killed Qassem Soleimani – the head of Iran’s Quds Force who was a popular figure in the country – a move that further escalated US-Iran tensions.

Former Trump officials interviewed by the WSJ believe that when the president-elect is sworn in in January, his approach to Iran “is likely to be colored by the knowledge that its agents tried to assassinate him and former top national security aides after they left office.” Tehran has denied ever having such plans.

Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official serving in Trump’s administration, noted that “people tend to take that stuff personally,” adding that “if he [Trump] is going to be hawkish on any particular country, designated major adversaries, it’s Iran.”

WSJ sources familiar with the president-elect’s plans said his team will “move rapidly to try to choke off Iran’s oil income, including going after foreign ports and traders who handle Iranian oil.” China is currently the top importer of Iranian crude.

An unnamed former White House official added that the Trump team will also try to “isolate Iran” both financially and diplomatically, adding that Washington will seek to exploit Tehran’s perceived “weakness.”

Potential changes in US policy could come as the Middle East remains in turmoil, with Israel locked in a war with Hamas in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza and a conflict with Lebanese-based group Hezbollah – both of which have close ties to Iran.

Officials in Tehran have signaled that they don’t really care who is the leader of the US. “The general policies of America and Iran are fixed… There is no change in people’s livelihood and it doesn’t matter much who becomes the president in America,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said.

Here’s What Trump’s Peace Plan Might Look Like & Why Russia Might Agree To It

by Andrew Korybko

Moscow-based American political analyst with a PhD from MGIMO

via https://korybko.substack.com/p/heres-what-trumps-peace-plan-might

Putin might agree to freeze the conflict along the Line of Contact in spite of prior rhetoric against this scenario in the event that Trump threatens to escalate the conflict as punishment if he doesn’t.

Trump’s pledge to resolve the Ukrainian Conflict in 24 hours is unrealistic, but he’ll inevitably propose a peace plan at some point in time, thus raising questions about what it would look like and whether Russia would agree to it. More than likely, he’ll seek to freeze the conflict along the Line of Contact (LOC), wherever it may be by that time, as he’s not expected to coerce Ukraine into withdrawing from the regions whose administrative borders Russia claims in their entirety.

Nor is Russia expected to obtain control over them by the time that Trump’s proposal is made. It still hasn’t removed Ukrainian forces from Donbass, which is at the heart of its claims, and therefore is unlikely to capture Zaporozhye city, that namesake’s areas on the side of the Dnieper River, nor Kherson Region’s aforesaid adjacent lands either. It might gain some more territory if Pokrovsk is captured, but the US might dangerously “escalate to de-escalate” to stop a run on the river if Ukraine is then routed.

This could take the form of threatening a conventional NATO intervention if the political will exists to spark a Cuban-like brinskmanship crisis, the odds of which would greatly increase if Russia made any move in that scenario to cross the Dnieper and thus risk the collapse of that bloc’s Ukrainian project. Be that as it may, no such run on the river is expected, with the most that Russia might do is lay siege to Zaporozhye city, but even that might not materialize by the time that Trump shares his peace plan.

Russia will therefore almost certainly be asked to freeze the conflict along the LOC, albeit without rescinding its territorial claims just like Ukraine won’t either, under the threat of Trump ramping up military support to Ukraine if the Kremlin refuses to cease hostilities. This prediction is predicated on summer’s report that some of his advisors suggested that he do precisely that as punishment for Russia rubbishing whatever peace plan that he ultimately offers it.

Considering his tough-talking personality and proclivity for “escalating to de-escalate” on his terms if he feels disrespected, which he flirted doing with North Korea during his first term as a negotiating tactic, he’s thus expected to comply with the aforesaid suggestion in that event. Given Putin’s consummate pragmatism as he understands his style to be and his aversion to escalations, he might very well comply, but he could also request that Trump coerce Zelensky into making concessions to facilitate this.

These might include rescinding 2019’s constitutional amendment making NATO membership a strategic objective, promulgating legislation that Russia considers to advance its denazification goals, freezing further weapons shipments to Ukraine, and carving out a buffer zone within part of Ukrainian territory. In the order that they were mentioned, the first one would be superficial after this year’s raft of security guarantees between Ukraine and several NATO countries already made it a de facto member of the bloc.

To explain, they all entail commitments to resume their existing military support for Ukraine if its conflict with Russia flares up again upon its eventual end, and this selfsame support arguably aligns with NATO’s Article 5. Contrary to popular perceptions, it doesn’t obligate them to send troops, but only to provide whatever support they believe is necessary to aid allies under attack. This is what they’re already doing, yet Russia never escalated in response to this being enshrined in their bilateral military deals.

As for the second speculative concession that Putin might request that Trump coerce Zelensky into making, the returning American leader and his team haven’t ever signaled any interest in helping Russia denazify Ukraine, and coercing it into promulgating legislation might be seen as bad optics abroad. Since Russia can’t force Ukraine to do this, that particular goal of the special operation will likely remain unfulfilled, in which case it probably wouldn’t be discussed much anymore by officials and the media.

Moving along to the third, Trump probably wouldn’t agree to freeze arms shipments to Ukraine, but they might naturally be curtailed as he refocuses America’s military priorities on containing China in Asia instead of continuing to contain Russia in Europe. About that, his reported plan to encourage NATO members to take more responsibility for their defense is already being implemented under Biden as explained here, and they might continue arms shipments even if the US curtails its own.

Even so, the potentially natural curtailment of US arms shipments to Ukraine could be spun as partially fulfilling Russia’s demilitarization goal, as could any buffer zone that Trump might agree to coerce Ukraine into carving out on its own territory to prevent it from shelling Russian cities. That’ll be a hard sell for Putin to make, and Trump might be pressured by the “deep state” (the permanent members of the US’ military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies) into resisting, but it can’t be ruled out either.

The reason for this cautious optimism is because it would provide a “face-saving” means for Russia to freeze the conflict despite not achieving its maximum objectives instead of risking a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis by rejecting Trump’s expected proposal to “save face” at home and abroad. Trump wouldn’t make idle threats and certainly wouldn’t let Putin call his bluff even if that was the case so he’s expected to go through with arming Ukraine to the teeth if his peace deal falls flat.

That said, he also campaigned on ending the Ukrainian Conflict, and he’d personally prefer to replenish America’s depleted stockpiles in parallel with arming its Asian allies to the teeth against China instead continuing to arm Ukraine and risking a major crisis with Russia. His Sino-centric New Cold War focus is shared by a minority of the “deep state”, the majority of whom want to continue prioritizing Russia’s containment in Europe over China’s in Asia but who still never recklessly escalated with Russia thus far.

They’ve indeed escalated, but this was always preceded by signaling their intent to do so (such as via the provisioning of various arms) long before this happened, thus giving Russia enough time to calculate a response instead of risking an “overreaction” that could spiral into war with NATO. These anti-Russian hawks might therefore begrudgingly go along with any buffer zone that Trump might agree to if it avoids a potentially uncontrollable escalation like what he might threaten to do if Russia doesn’t take his deal.

Subversive “deep state” elements might even try to provoke such an escalation in order to avert that buffer zone scenario or any other that they consider to be unacceptable concessions to Russia, which remains a risk before and after his inauguration, but it’s clearly not their faction’s preferred scenario. This conclusion is arrived at by recalling on the abovementioned observation about how they always signaled their escalatory intentions far in advance thus far at least in order to avoid a major escalation.

Even if Trump doesn’t comply with any of Putin’s speculative requests to help the latter “save face” by freezing the conflict despite not achieving his country’s maximum goals in the conflict, he could always dangle the carrot of phased sanctions relief of the sort proposed by Richard Haass earlier this week. The former President of the hugely influential Council on Foreign Relations suggested that this could encourage Russia’s compliance with a ceasefire, and it’s possible that Putin might agree to this.

The Russian economy weathered the West’s unprecedented sanctions regime, but Russia’s grand plans to create alternative financial institutions and pivot to the non-West haven’t been as successful. This analysis here about how the latest BRICS Summit achieved nothing of tangible significance at all points out how none of this association’s ambitious initiatives were rolled out. It also hyperlinks to proof that the Chinese-based New Development Bank and the SCO Bank surprisingly comply with US sanctions.

Moreover, “Russia & China’s US-Provoked Payment Problems Caught Most BRICS Enthusiasts By Surprise” in early September after RT published a feature analysis about this politically inconvenient development, which shows that the Chinese centerpiece of Russia’s grand plans isn’t fully on board with them. There’s also the similarly inconvenient fact that Russia’s pivot to the non-West mostly only consists of resource sales to such countries and has yet to become anything more significant.

It accordingly wouldn’t be surprising if Putin appreciated promises of phased sanctions relief in exchange for agreeing to freeze the conflict along the LOC no matter how disappointing of an end this may be to its special operation in the eyes of its most zealous supporters. After all, Foreign Minister Lavrov told a group of ambassadors last month that Russia demands “the lifting of Western anti-Russian sanctions”, so it’s clearly on the collective Kremlin’s mind no matter what its perception managers claim.

Even if Trump makes such promises, however, keeping them would be difficult since many of America’s anti-Russian sanctions are codified into law after being voted on by Congress. They might go along with any request to rescind them, but they also might not, thus throwing a wrench in Russia’s plans. The US also can’t force the EU to rescind its respective sanctions, and anti-Russian countries like Poland and the Baltic States might create obstacles to the resumption of trade with Russia if the EU’s ties with it thaw.

Should they be implemented even if only semi-successfully, then Trump could claim a victory in “un-uniting” Russia and China like he promised to do even if those two’s trade continues to grow (mostly through Chinese resource imports and replacing lost Western products on Russian shelves). He could also sell this phased sanctions relief proposal to anti-Russian “deep state” hawks and the Europeans on that basis to help secure their support and deflect from claims that he’s doing it as a favor to Putin.

Reflecting on the insight that was shared in this analysis, Trump’s peace plan isn’t expected to have any surprises, nor would it be surprising if Russia agrees to it for the reasons that were explained. The US holds the cards and will only agree to any of Putin’s speculatively requested concessions in order to make it easier for him to “save face” for freezing the conflict despite not achieving his maximum goals. Neither wants a major escalation and both are fatigued with this proxy war so such a deal might work.

It’ll therefore be interesting to see how the rhetoric from Russian officials and their global media ecosystem might change as reports leak out about what exactly Trump has in mind. He and the minority “deep state” faction that supports him are motivated by their desire to “Pivot (back) to Asia” in order to more muscularly contain China, hence their interest in wrapping up this proxy war. As for Russia, it’s beginning to realize that a compromise of some sort is inevitable and must thus prepare the public.

Something unexpected might of course happen to completely change this analysis such as if hawks on either side convince their respective presidents to double down on the conflict, but the arguments made therein cogently account for each side’s interests, especially Russia’s. If everything more or less unfolds as written, then observers can expect a “Great Media/Perception Reset” in terms of Russia’s narrative towards the conflict, which would be required to facilitate whatever compromises Putin might make.

Tromp Announces Former Big Pharma Lobbyist to Run White House Staff

SWAMP Watch – First Edition

by Brian Shilhavy
Editor, Health Impact News

The filling back up of the Washington D.C. Swamp has begun.

Two days after his victory from “winning” back the Office of the President of the United States, Donald Trump made his first appointment for this new administration today, announcing that the co-chair of his campaign, Susie Wiles, will become his Chief of Staff.

The President Chief of Staff is a position that does NOT have to be approved by the Senate, and is typically one of the first appointments made of a newly elected President, as this person will guide the President in choosing the rest of this staff and cabinet.

Image source.

This speaks volumes about who Trump is going to surround himself with in his new administration, and remaining true to his original loyalties during his first term, he went with former Big Pharma lobbyist Susie Wiles, who has previously worked as a lobbyist for some of the largest manufacturers of vaccines, including Pfizer.

Image source.

So who is Susie Wiles? She is someone who mostly stays behind the scenes, until today, and is called by some people the “most powerful and feared woman” in America.

Earlier this year Politico ran an in depth investigative article on her titled:

The Most Feared and Least Known Political Operative in America

Excerpts:

Susie Wiles, the people who know her the best believe, is a force more sensed than seen. Her influence on political events, to many who know what they’re watching, is as obvious as it is invisible.

The prints leave not so much as a smudge. It’s a shock when she shows up in pictures. Even then it is almost always in the background. She speaks on the record hardly ever, and she speaks about herself even less.

Wiles is not just one of Trump’s senior advisers. She’s his most important adviser.

She’s his de facto campaign manager. She has been in essence his chief of staff for the last more than three years.

She’s one of the reasons Trump is the GOP’s presumptive nominee and Ron DeSantis is not. She’s one of the reasons Trump’s current operation has been getting credit for being more professional than its fractious, seat-of-the-pants antecedents.

And she’s a leading reason Trump has every chance to get elected again — even after his loss of 2020, the insurrection of 2021, his party’s defeats in the midterms of 2022, the criminal indictments of 2023 and the trial (or trials) of 2024.

“There is nobody, I think, that has the wealth of information that she does. Nobody in our orbit. Nobody,” top Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio told me. “She touches everything.”

“Certainly,” said former Florida Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, “she’s one of the most consequential people in American politics right now.”

“And nobody,” said veteran Florida lobbyist Ronnie Book, “even knows who she is.”

Full article.

Liam Sturgess, writing for The Kennedy Beacon, also profiled her earlier this year.

Susie Wiles Is a Lobbyist for Big Pharma. She’s Also a Key Advisor to President Trump. That’s a Problem.

On April 26, former president Donald Trump revisited one of his most controversial pet projects: Operation Warp Speed.

This time, he dragged his political opponent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the fray.

“His Views on Vaccines are FAKE, as is everything else about his Candidacy,” wrote the former president about Kennedy in a post on Truth Social.

This ignited significant backlash from Trump’s base, highlighting the extent to which they disagree with him on COVID-19 vaccines.

Operation Warp Speed, which expedited the development and rollout of experimental gene therapy products in response to COVID-19, saw unprecedented profits for Pfizer and Moderna, as noted by senator Bernie Sanders.

Speed came at the cost of compromised clinical trials, with needles entering arms under Emergency Use Authorization with only two months of safety data on the FDA’s books.

As a result, tens of thousands of Americans report suffering vaccine injuries, as even The New York Times is now reporting.

Given the increasingly vocal opposition to the COVID-19 vaccination program, including among his base, why does Trump continue to demand acclaim for his role in pushing the shots through?

We find the answer in Susie Wiles, who appears to be the connective tissue between Trump and Big Pharma.

Wiles is a soft-spoken, approachable grandmother figure with a long career specializing in political machinations.

Daughter of legendary NFL play-by-play man Pat Summerall, Wiles’ early work in Republican politics earned her the label “indispensable,” both to her clients and the media, to whom she frequently leaks inside information.

As Politico admits, her allegiances are not clear: “The Wiles M.O… was and remains hard for [her colleagues] to describe.”

Wiles is also a seasoned lobbyist; her LinkedIn profile summarizes her leadership roles at multiple corporate and political lobbying firms since the mid-1980s, allowing her to sway Trump’s psyche with her conflicts of interest.

Wiles became co-chair of lobbying firm Mercury Public Affairs in February 2022.

As highlighted by Wholistic News, Mercury’s clientele includes Pfizer; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which spearheaded vaccine funding and distribution efforts during the COVID-19 crisis – a role also played by the United Nations Foundation, another Mercury client; and Gilead Sciences, developer of the equally-rushed COVID-19 “therapeutic,” remdesivir, as critiqued in Science. (Full article.)

So what does that say about RFK Jr.’s chance of having any kind of real authority to do what he is claiming he is going to do, when Trump himself called his views on vaccines as “Fake” just a few months ago?

The Substack page called “Wholistic News” also did a piece of Susie Wiles earlier this year highlighting her connection to Big Pharma vaccines, and not only here in the U.S., but globally with ties to the Bill Gates organization, GAVI: The Vaccine Alliance, which purchases vaccines for the United Nations.

Trump Trashes RKF Jr. Over Vaccine Stance: The Global Vaccine Activism Organizations Connected to His Campaign

Trump’s Save American PAC Chair is Susie Wiles, who has significant ties to Big Pharma and Gavi: The Vaccine Alliance.

In a recent statement on Truth Social (see below), Trump expressed a preference for Biden over RFK Jr and criticized the latter’s views on vaccines as “fake.” This has sparked questions about Trump’s refusal to acknowledge concerns about covid vaccines.

Notably, Trump had previously tweeted about a link between vaccines and autism back in 2014. Many are wondering what has changed Trump’s mind about vaccine safety.

Tom Renz, a Trump supporter, has raised concerns about the influence of campaign leader Susie Wiles, a key figure behind the scenes in Trump’s campaign.

Wiles has strong connections to Big Pharma through her work at Mercury LLC, a company representing major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and Gilead, as well as Gavi: The Vaccine Allience and the UN Foundation. (Source.)

So sorry to disappoint all you Trump believers who foolishly thought Trump would correct all the wrongs he made in his first administration when he killied millions of people as he pressured the FDA to approve his COVID-19 experimental “vaccines.”

Now that he has won the election, he is clearly showing where his allegiances continue to be, and you can be quite certain that Mr. Kennedy will never have any meaningful position in his administration that can affect change.

But Trump has to pay him back for his support, so expect the Wall Street Billionaires and Silicon Valley Billionaires to keep funding Kennedy’s Children’s Health Defense organization, where I am sure it will now become the largest “Alternative” Health website in the world.

Mr. Kennedy will most likely have to take a REDUCTION in salary to serve in government, as the most recently available tax returns from 2022 list him as making about a half million dollars a year at Children’s Health Defense, which is more than Dr. Anthony Fauci made as the highest paid government official, before his retirement.

Mr. Kennedy’s salary has dramatically increased since COVID, going from $255,000 in 2019 to $345,561 in 2020 to $497,013 in 2021. (Source.)

The revenue coming into CHD has more than doubled each year of their existence, from $1,063,837 in 2018 to $2,928,566 in 2019, to $6,769,658 in 2020, the year COVID started, to an astounding $15,990,132 in 2021.

So while Mr. Kennedy will get some of kind of token place in Trump’s administration, the main benefit for that position will most likely be increased revenue for Children’s Health Defense, where he will probably eventually return to with a “modest” increase in his salary after his “service” to Trump is complete.

Stay tuned for more editions of “SWAMP Watch” as we watch Donald Trump fill back up the D.C. Swamp!