by Gilbert Doctorow

One of the valuable features of my several platforms for publishing essays is the feedback I get from readers.

In this regard I quote here what one reader sent in about my article earlier today on the violation of free speech that the detention of Scott Ritter yesterday at JFK airport and confiscation of his passport signified, followed as it was, according to RT reports, by the same happening to Judge Napolitano, who was also planning to travel to St Petersburg to participate in the International Economic Forum that begins on the 6^th.

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Andrew Napolitano was not taken off the plane. Scott Ritter phoned him and told him that it was “not wise to travel” to St. Petersburg.

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I watched this edition of the “Judging Freedom” show and urge you to do the same. Here the Judge discusses with Scott Ritter what happened yesterday. These facts by themselves do not change my determination that yesterday’s events amounted to intimidation by the U.S. government and were a gross violation of constitutional rights.

However, the largest part of the Scott Ritter interview was devoted to a different matter, which I wish to discuss here, namely what the consequences may be of an attack on the Russian heartland coming from Ukraine using the long range missiles it has been given by the United States, the U.K. and France.  

Ritter is repeating what has been intimated by Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov and other Russian officials, namely that Russia is prepared to strike back at the producers of these long range weapons, at those who are providing targeting packages to these weapons from their bases in Europe and the USA.  Ritter then assumes this will necessarily proceed directly to reciprocal massive nuclear exchanges between the United States and Russia which will put an end to human civilization. And he backs up this conclusion by reference to the scenario for conducting nuclear war that has existed within the Pentagon since the days of John F. Kennedy.

I would like to propose a very different scenario basing myself on what I hear on Russian talk shows from top experts. And I juxtapose what these Russians are saying with the realities of U.S.-European mutual defense and of intra-European defense thinking that I see around me here in Belgium, including at the club luncheon on which I reported yesterday.

The first point is that the most likely revenge attack by Russia for any missile strikes on its cities or critical civilian and military infrastructure will be….a massively destructive attack on Kiev.

Why Kiev, you may ask, when the same Russians are saying that the Ukrainians are only the fingers on the button and when all the settings, all the inputs for targeting have been made by Americans or Brits or French, depending on the specific missiles that were used. The reason is that hitting Kiev, decapitating the Ukrainian government, will result in the least possible blowback. It will not lead to a nuclear war. Europe and the USA do not give a damn about Ukrainian lives, so the cost to Russia of such a strike will be nil.

Moreover, striking Kiev will be a demonstration to Europe and to the USA that they are not bluffing, that they have the determination to go all the way in their confrontation with the West to safeguard their sovereignty and national existence. It will be implementing what the political scientist Karaganov was proposing many months ago, whether it is carried out with conventional or tactical nuclear weapons.

If nonetheless, strikes on Russian assets in the RF continue, the next point of attack by the Russians will be the marshalling centers in Poland which receive weapons and other military supplies from the United States and European NATO countries for delivery to Ukraine. One key airport is named in this connection.  Why Poland?  Because the rest of Europe is hardly likely to come to its aid.

Continuing up the escalation ladder, I believe that the Russians will then, and only then, attack military factories and bases in Germany, the United Kingdom, France.  Like the leaders of these countries, Russia does not really expect the United States to come to their aid and honor its Article 5 obligations under the NATO treaty.

Only in the last instance will Russia attack the United States using its strategic nuclear arsenal, meaning only if it is under direct nuclear attack from the USA.  This, notwithstanding the clearly stated Russian understanding that behind all of the European provocations against it stands Washington, the hegemon and puppet master. The United States will be the very last to come under Russian attack precisely because the nuclear exchange that comes will be suicidal for both sides.

This, I think, is also the understanding that the Biden administration has. But their expectation is that both sides in a Russian European war will be decimated, freeing the United States to defend its global hegemony by taking on and defeating China. In this, I firmly believe Washington is mistaken. Europe will be destroyed, Russia will be victorious, because its arms are superior, and its troops are now war hardened. The United States will have lost its European colonies and will be up against the Russia-China alliance alone.

If you are reading this lying on a chaise longue in your back yard in Arlington, Virginia, you may take comfort. If, like me, you are living close to the Russians’ bulls-eye, 20 km from NATO headquarters, the above analysis can get on your nerves.

via Sputnik

NATO cobbling together scheme to move troops from US to Europe – reports

The US-led military bloc is preparing land corridors that would enable US troops to rush to the frontlines in the event of a European war, the Telegraph reported. The move seeks to stave off a potential “Russian attack.”

In theory, US soldiers could arrive at one of five designated ports and then be transported along predetermined logistics routes on the continent. According to the plans, American forces would land in the Netherlands and then be taken to Poland via Germany by train. Other potential options include utilizing ports in the Balkans, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Italy, Greece, and Turkiye.

“In these corridors, national militaries will not be restricted by local regulations and will be free to transport consignments without normal restrictions,” the report said.

The notion of a war with Russia in Europe appears to be fueled by militaristic hysteria. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that Moscow has no intention of attacking NATO nations, and the alliance has stated that it would not deploy its forces in Ukraine.

Additionally, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has poured cold water on the aggressive suggestions made by French President Emmanuel Macron, indicating that there will be “no boots on the ground” in Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the vulnerability of Kiev’s logistics bases to Russia’s pinpoint strikes.

According to Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, Commander of NATO’s Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC), larger bases, like those seen in Afghanistan or Iraq, are no longer feasible as they can be targeted and destroyed with ease.

The US is close to making a “fatal” miscalculation in its attempts to deal with Russia and the Ukraine conflict, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has warned.

”I’d like to warn American actors against miscalculations that can lead to fatal consequences. For some unclear reason they underestimate how serious a response they could face,” Ryabkov told journalists.

by Gilbert Doctorow

Ladies and gentlemen, let me open this discussion with an out-of-the-box explanation as to why Russia appears to be laid back over the destruction of one of its early warning radar installations in the south of the country and undetermined damage to another during the past week. This, while the Western mainstream media speak of severe impairment to Russia’s defenses and some military experts in the USA publish denunciations of the Biden administration for exposing the country to nuclear attack from Russia caused by false positives on their monitors that arise in the final minutes of a supposed attack due to the absence of suitable ground radar to double check what the inadequate Russian satellite warning system tells them.

The fundamental issue, as I see it, was flagged long ago when President Putin said that Russia responds in an asymmetric manner to whatever challenges the US and allied militaries present. Washington pulled out of the treaty on ABMs under George W. Bush thereby undermining the foundations of nuclear deterrence and the Russians then headed off in their own direction to find and implement a devastating counter-measure.

As it turns out, Russia’s IT geniuses who went abroad in the Yeltsin years to set up Google and other wonderful and powerful corporations in Silicon Valley serving primarily the consumer sector did not drain Russia of its brainpower. Indeed, more than enough patriotic IT geniuses remained in country to provide Mr. Putin and the country at large with an adequate talent pool to engineer and produce what, 22 years later, we recognize as world-beating Russian defense systems.

No one in the West talks about the implications of what the Russians have developed and in particular what it means in the present context of concern that the poor, blinded Russians do not get early warning of a nuclear attack. Let me say it out loud: the Russians have first nuclear strike capability thanks to their newly introduced Sarmat missiles carrying smaller, unstoppable hypersonic missiles as payload. A fully loaded Sarmat can level to the ground a country the size of the UK; several of them can fairly well erase the USA from the map. In addition the Russians have short to medium range hypersonic missiles that can be launched from frigates 400 km off America’s shores. And they are working on a nuclear torpedo (Poseidon) that alone can take out entire cities in the tsunamis they create.

What this means is that there is a good probability that when push comes to shove, when their intelligence reports the concentration of nuclear cruise and ballistic armed US submarines in the Arabian Gulf for example, when their satellites tell them about missile concentrations in Western, Central and Eastern Europe that have an ominous message, they will threaten and possibly carry out a devastating first strike against the USA, which as they say openly, is the puppet master not only in Ukraine but in all of Western Europe.

The second argument for not looking down our noses at the Russian military for failing to have an equivalent to the US global missile launch detection capability is the investment the Russians have made in building their own version of Iron Domes to protect major cities, and presumably, major military infrastructure from U.S. nuclear attack.

Two days ago I understood what that means when listening to Great Game host Vyacheslav Nikonov talk about the attacks the day before (29 May) using U.S. ATACMS long range missiles fired from Ukraine against the area of the Kerch bridge and other targets deep in Russia.

See the opening minutes of this 46 minute segment of the program: https://rutube.ru/video/ef8865c657153655c76030b72c5ae5ac/

Note that these attacks took place a day before President Biden officially announced U.S. acquiescence in Kiev’s intentions to strike inside Russia. The Biden team gave assurances that the weapons would be used exclusively against militarily valuable targets. The Kerch bridge to Crimea, of course, is now purely civilian infrastructure given that all Russian military deliveries to the front have long been redirected to land-based rail lines running parallel to the Sea of Azov that the Russians have expanded over the past year.

The point made by Nikonov is that all of these missiles were shot down by Russian air defense systems. An invited expert informed the audience that the American missiles have their weak spots which the Russians are exploring and exploiting to destroy them in the air.

This does not mean that Russian air defense is 100% reliable. But it means that as regards missiles of all kinds it does a great job. That contrasts, of course, with defense against the much harder to find smaller and more maneuverable incoming drones, which were the weapon of choice in the Ukrainian attack on Russian radar installations. But drones do not destroy cities and kill hundreds of thousands if not millions of people. Missiles do that.

On the same day, 4 – 6 unmanned British cutters valued at 6 million dollars each which were sent against Russian Black Sea vessels were destroyed by the Russian side.

These latest U.S. and British guided attacks were said to be proof that the U.S. led West now understands perfectly well that Ukraine is facing defeat and are doing what they can to raise the stakes. The F16s soon to be introduced into the conflict will be another major escalation by the West. They will be treated by Russia as a NATO nuclear armed task force to contain Russia. The French led effort to put together a coalition of providers of instructors on the ground in Ukraine is still another dimension of the very dangerous ongoing escalation.

Note: Nikonov and his panelists discussed these existential threats in calm and deliberate manner. None is certain how the Kremlin will respond to a successful attack nominally delivered by Ukraine but de facto Western-guided. Perhaps there will be a massive Russian attack made on the city of Kiev.

I truly wonder what is the benefit of having a 15 minute advance warning of an incoming missile attack if, as is 100% certain, an automatic ‘Dead Hand’ launch has already been scripted. Moreover, what would be the sense of lifting the handset of a Red Phone to Washington to speak to….whom? Biden, Sullivan or any other of the liars and card cheats who populate the top echelons of the federal government? Not a trustworthy person among them with whom you would risk the fate of your nation.

The overriding message I wish to convey is that Americans have forgotten their old folk wisdom that “there are many different ways to skin a cat.” Experts in America’s dissident underground can be just as unwilling to comprehend that Russians are not weak and stupid as American generals and their minions in the press were saying when they denounced Russia’s opening moves in its Special Military Operation for failing to do what America does in such instances: use a Shock and Awe campaign to murder everyone and destroy everything in its path.

NATO is preparing for a protracted war with Russia but there is still a chance to prevent it, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said at a ministerial meeting of the military bloc in Prague on Friday.

NATO member states have been granting approval for Kiev to use Western-supplied weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia. Earlier in the day, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine had the right to defend itself, which includes the right to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia.

These steps are being taken in preparation “for a long, many-year war,”Hungarian newspaper Magyar Nemzet quoted Szijjarto as saying.

“The express train of war has departed from the penultimate station,” and the question is whether there is still a chance to stop it, he added.

The Hungarian foreign minister said there was “only one emergency brake left,”referring to the European Parliament elections in June. The European people “can make it clear to their governments that they do not want to live with war in Europe for a long time,” Szijjarto added.

Hungary had previously called for a ceasefire and peace talks to resolve the Ukraine conflict. Budapest has refused to send military aid to Kiev and has repeatedly delayed EU sanctions on Moscow.

The Hungarian foreign minister has been a vocal critic of NATO’s position on the conflict. Before the meeting in Prague, he said anti-Russia “war hysteria” was making Western leaders adopt increasingly “crazy ideas” that could lead to grave consequences.

Last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned that Brussels and Washington could be warming up for a direct military conflict with Russia. Budapest was working to “redefine” its NATO membership status to allow it to opt-out of the military alliance’s “activities outside the bloc’s territory,” Orban stated.

A number of other NATO member states such as Norway, Finland, Latvia, Poland, and reportedly Germany have spoken in favor of Kiev using long-range missiles against targets on Russian territory.

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden was reported to have secretly given Ukraine the green light to use American-provided weapons to strike targets in the part of Russia that borders Kharkov Region.

via RT