Category Archives: Economics/Statistics

Synapsis of usury in history

MEFOBILLS says:

You are making the same mistake that all historians do, they don’t look at the money. Protestantism was a looting operation of the Catholic Church.

Luther was pissed off at the indulgences the Catholics were paying, and later it was found out by Luther that Jews had indebted Catholic priests with usurious loans. Indulgences were to pay Jews.

Protestantism in turn came about with Calvin, who in turn was being funded by Jews out of Amsterdam. These Jews in Amsterdam got rich running scams against the Dutch population.

And so it goes.

The same goes for Greece, and Hudson talks about that.

What Hudson doesn’t talk about are triangular flow of debts between Persia, Sparta, Babylon.

It goes like this: Babylon makes loans to Persia, payable at a high rate of 33 1/3 %. After paying back the principle, Persia found she could not keep up with compounding interest, payable in Gold. Commerce grinds to a halt in Persia. King Cyrus of Persia went to war against Babylon 536BC and won and recovered the gold.

Persia then spends its conquered gold and there is a flash of economic activity. New cities, new armies, new industries, and this flood of wealth sent Persian merchants to Greece.

Greeks want Persian wares, so they borrow with the promise of returning the loans plus INTEREST.

In 412 BC Sparta borrowed 5,ooo talents from Persia to build warships. In 405 BC, Lysander of Sparta used these ships to destroy the whole Athenian fleet, which was attacked while drawn up on a beach.

This then made Sparta the number 1 economy in Greece, on borrowed gold. Sparta also had its internal money, the peleanor, which was iron disks dipped in vinegar. However, the external debts in gold were compounding.

When Sparta conquered Athens, she TRANSFERRED THE DEBTS, to Athens. Greeks really began killing Greeks at this point in time.

Usury based money makes populations go insane.

In 336 BC Alexander noticed the treasury was empty, so he attacked Persia. Persia had the gold from her interest charges on Athens. Alexander’s Grecian phalanx won against the Persians, gained an empire, and also millions in talents of gold from Darius’s banks and temples.

Rome also was a usury empire as Hudson points out, it had to conquest to pay the debts to its oligarchy. After the second Punic war, this went into overdrive, especially as Rome adopted precious metal money as its money type.

The type of government, whether it be a democracy of whatever is of little importance. What matters is if the government is doing its duty and striving for balance . The Chinese use polling, which is a form of voting, to get feedback.

The body politic can become easily unbalanced in a democracy, as the voters can be duped and senators paid off, as we see today in America.

5 Year Statistics and Exports

Godfree Roberts says:

Have you ever investigated the results of a Chinese Five Year Plan? Just one? They’re all published online, as are the claimed results.

Have you ever dived deep into official Chinese statistics? If you did, did you find anomalies suggesting they’re inaccurate or misleading?

I’ve been paddling around at the shallow end in the deep pool of Beijing’s official figures since 1951. By now, I can now check almost any official statistic against several others, usually from open, multinational sources like the World Bank, the CIA and the OECD.

So far, the figures line up: claimed GDP growth matches (actually trails) observed wage rises of 6% a year compounded, for example. The WTO says the country’s exports and imports match its records, that its trade is in balance with the world and that exports are moving up the value chain as predicted.

Authorities as diverse as Mark Mobius, who invested billions in both countries, says China’s stats are as good as Canada’s. So does Hong Kong University’s Prof. Carsten Holz, who has devoted decades to verifying China’s stats.

I suggest you go to China regularly, as I do, and visit second, third and fourth tier cities to see if what you see lines up with the official stats.

China’s trade with the world, imports/exports, is in balance.

China is a below-average exporter. Compared to Germany, her exports account for less than half as much of GDP. China is even less export dependent than Canada.

You can see Chinese tariffs here:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQMc9ieZYUOv6a4h3-cY0kBaX5XkARsqpbfY_5KNjdXRH4XMD8g7zSCYuXya0gSgxrukawPaf553doF/pub

Malpractice is the Biggest Killer in US

Do you know the biggest killer in the US? Not guns, not car accidents but iatrogenic deaths i.e. deaths caused by medical intervention. Depending on how tightly that is defined the figure ranges between 250,000 and 750,000 a year. These are people that would not have died had they not gone to see their doctor. The ‘sick business’ is truly sick, and when you consider that that ‘health care’ constitutes 18% of US GDP you can see the motive. And that is not taking into account the autism epidemic, the diabetes epidemic, the allergy epidemic. Medicine in the US, and the west in general is very, very sick.

Bank of England

By Ken Livingston
Ken Livingstone: Decade after 2008 crisis, no changes made, richest get richer, inequality growing
Getty Images

This month marks 10 years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers created the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, but governments have failed to make changes necessary to prevent a similar collapse.

Back in the 1930s, the US government responded to the Great Depression by introducing new laws that made it illegal for the local high street banks, in which we all deposit our own money, to make risky gambling decisions.

If anything, the financial sector is growing more powerful and wealthier than at any time in the past. More and more of the wealth created across the world is going into the pockets of the richest one percent and via methods that mean they seldom pay any tax whatsoever. The result is that across the Western world inequality is getting dramatically worse and the lives of ordinary people are being squeezed and it is the anger of ordinary people responding to this injustice that fuelled the vote to elect Trump as president and to take Britain out of the European Union. To understand how we can cope with this we need to look at the history of how the financial services became the predominant global power.

Over the centuries there have been several unsuccessful attempts to reform the City of London’s financial centre. Following the creation of the Labour Party one of its central planks was its opposition to the City and in particular the independent Bank of England. The leading Labour politician in London, Herbert Morrison, towards the end of WWI said: “Is it not time London faced up to the pretentious buffoonery of the City and wipe it of the municipal map. The City is now a square mile of entrenched reaction, the home of the devilry of modern finance and that journalistic abortion, the stunt press. The City is an administrative anachronism.”

Read more
© Jo Yong hakThe 2008 financial crash: Punishing the victims, rewarding the perpetrators

Over the decades that followed the Labour Party continued to pledge to abolish the corporation and include it in the wider London government. Labour’s current shadow chancellor John McDonnell said: “The traditional Labour position was to control the finances of the country in the long term interests of its people.”

In the run up to the 1945 election Labour leader Clement Attlee said: “Over and over again we have seen that there is in this country another power than that which has its seat at Westminster. The City of London, a convenient term for a collection of financial interests, is able to assert itself against the government of the country. Those who control money can pursue a policy at home and abroad contrary to that which has been decided by the people. The first step in the transfer of this power is the conversion of the Bank of England into a state institution.”

When the Bank of England was created in 1694 it was largely to provide credit for building our navy and ushered in a financial revolution which led to the creation of mortgage markets, Lloyds of London insurance, a stock exchange, a financial press and the rapid expansion of overseas trade. But although Attlee’s government did nationalise the bank in 1946, the bank had powerful cards to play, in particular its control over the nation’s money.

Interestingly when Labour lost the 1951 election Winston Churchill’s government did not repeal the nationalisation of the bank. That may well be because Churchill had discovered that during WWII the governor of the Bank of England had transferred a substantial proportion of Britain’s gold reserves to Nazi Germany because we owed them the gold but the governor of the bank never consulted the government before he did this.

Although Attlee had nationalised the bank it continued to be run by the same group of old Etonian merchant bankers. Although the government had acquired powers to issue directions to the bank it admitted in 2010 that ‘Thus far the power has not been used.’

Read more
© Dado RuvicSwift turn: German FM says Europe needs bank transactions system independent from US

When Harold Wilson’s Labour government was elected in 1964 and discovered that our trade deficit was twice what the outgoing Tories had admitted he gave in to pressure from the bank’s governor to slash most of his spending promises, causing him to say “Who is prime minister of this country Mr Governor, you or me?”

Some chancellors of the Exchequer have been a bit firmer with the bank than Wilson was. When Tory Ken Clarke became chancellor after Britain’s eviction from the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, he constantly resisted the almost monthly demand from the governor to increase interest rates. Ken represented a constituency with a still substantial manufacturing sector and he knew increasing interest rates may very well benefit the financial sector but usually damaged our manufacturing.

Increasing interest rates have an impact on driving up unemployment and whilst that post-war Attlee government kept interest rates to two percent and unemployment fell to its lowest level in the post-war era, most Tory and Labour governments have given in to the demand for an increase in interest rates which means we have never been able to get our unemployment down to the level of 1951.

Whilst the City continues to be a vastly powerful institution, it was transformed by Thatcher when she pushed through a massive deregulation of the financial sector in 1986. Before then the City was dominated by the old Etonian elite, now it was overwhelmed by foreign financiers descending and turning it into a genuinely more international institution.

When Tony Blair became Labour’s leader he did a deal with the City promising them not to increase regulation of their powers and practices. This therefore made it easier for him to win the next election without opposition from the financial sector funding the Tories. Blair had effectively turned the Labour party into a vehicle the City fell in love with and finally scrapped Labour’s long-term commitment to incorporate the City into the Greater London Council.

Even more bizarre was Blair’s decision to change the balance of votes inside the City. Before Blair came to power nine thousand residents living in the City had one vote each but businesses in the City could vote as well and had twenty-three thousand votes between them. Blair allowed them to increase their votes to thirty-two thousand. The Guardian pointed out that he was giving companies ‘Carte blanche to run the City.’ Now the Bank of China, Moscow’s Narodny bank, KPMG and Goldman Sachs are voting in British elections. Tony Benn was one of a few Labour MPs who opposed this saying “We are considering a corrupt proposal, we are being asked to legalise the buying of votes for political purposes. The City is an offshore island moored in the Thames with a freedom that many other offshore islands would be glad to have.”

Read more
Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron. © Christopher FurlongBritain is the heart and soul of tax evasion

After WWII the creation of the Eurodollar market allowed US banks to shift money to London in order to avoid the restrictions placed on them in the USA. Britain made matters worse when it allowed many of its former small colonies to become tax havens. Just one building in the Cayman Islands is the legal headquarters for 12,000 corporations. In just the second quarter of 2009 the UK got net financing of $332 billion from three of its Crown dependencies which had just become offshore tax havens. The island of Jersey had effectively become an extension of the City. The Caymans have become the fifth largest financial centre in the world with over 80,000 companies headquartered there including three quarters of the world’s hedge funds.

Some presidents have tried to tackle this. In 1961, President Kennedy tried to get Congress to pass legislation to “Drive these tax havens out of existence.” His assassination brought that to an end and, half a century on, President Obama’s promise to sponsor a bill to stop tax haven abuse in 2008 was eviscerated by financial lobbyists working in congress and brought no control over all the tax evasion and avoidance. Not surprisingly, no sooner had Obama won the Democratic Party’s nomination for president than he was straight off to Wall Street to promise them he would not limit their powers if he became president.

Here in Britain the government claims that there is only twenty billion pounds worth of tax evasion and avoidance, but some economists estimate that it could be a hundred and twenty billion, and similar tax dodging carries on all around the world. Since Margaret Thatcher deregulated the banking system in 1986 and President Clinton abolished the bank regulation laws in 1998 the world’s been transformed with wealth being shifted all around the planet so that the super-rich and the giant corporations don’t have to pay their share of tax. The consequence of this has been a huge increase in inequality in Britain – it had doubled in the last forty years so that it is now as bad as it was in 1914. Labour’s new leadership under Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell would almost certainly be committed to reforming this appalling and unaccountable concentration of power, so we can expect the financial sector to do everything in its power to stop Jeremy getting into Downing Street.

Dagong Downgrades the Sovereign Credit Ratings of the United States of America

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd.

January 16, 2018

Editor’s Note: In 2010, China’s main credit rating agency Dagong argued for the first time that the U.S. economy was actually much closer to $5 trillion rather than $15 trillion:

“In the components of the U.S. GDP in 2009, the financial services sector accounted for 21.4% while the real economy sector accounted for 65%. The total output value of the U.S. financial services industry is composed of two major parts: one is the transferred production value, most of which comes from value distribution of participating in international production. Another part is the inflated value originated from credit innovation, which belongs to bubble value. In addition, due to the high economic financialization, more than half of the profits in the real economy come from the returns of financial activities. If we exclude the factor of virtual economy, the U.S. actual GDP is about 5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2009, per capita GDP about $ 15,000. Meanwhile, the total domestic consumption was 10.0 trillion U.S. dollars and government expenditure was 4.5 trillion U.S. dollars. The production capacity of real value in the national economy is the material base to arrange social distribution and consumption. As the U.S. government arranges its budget according to the GDP including the virtual value, its revenue must fall short of its expenditure, so the socialization and normalization of debts will exacerbate the environment of economic development. It is predicted that the average real GDP per year of the United States will not reach 6 trillion U.S. dollar and per capita GDP will be less than 20,000 in the coming 3-5 years.”

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (Dagong) has decided to downgrade both the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings of the United States from A- to BBB +, and each with a negative outlook. The perennial negative impact of the superstructure on the economic base has continued to deteriorate the debt repayment sources of the federal government, and this trend will be further exacerbated by the government’s massive tax cuts. The increasing reliance on the debt-driven mode of economic development will continue to erode the solvency of the federal government.

The main reasons for downgrading the sovereign credit ratings of the United States are as follows:

1. Deficiencies in the current US political environment make the efficient administration of the federal government difficult, so the nation’s economic development is on the wrong track. In a political environment built on factional rivalries, factional interests are prioritized, and it is hard for the government to focus on managing the national economy and social development. Thus, the economy is highly debt-driven. Nevertheless, the government seems not to have learned from the financial crises that it is this debt-driven model that has hindered the country in balancing the budget. Instead, contrary to all logic, it continues to seek credit expansion through direct issuance of US dollars, and is thus on the wrong track from the start.

2. The distorted credit environment that violates the law of value leads to the abnormal solvency of the federal government. Capital always seeks profit; this makes the financial sectors of the United States strive for more profits through continuous expansion of the chain of credit transactions by designing capital products and trading structures, and the virtual value-added model of capital self-circulation that runs out of the real economy provides living space for the ever-burgeoning debt bubble of the federal government. The government has invented a virtual form of solvency by increasing new debt in the name of the United States by abusing the right to manipulate the money supply, that is, by abusing the right to issue dollars as the international reserve currency. Therefore, the distorted credit environment has made the federal government’s so-called solvency its latest derivative product.

3. Massive tax cuts directly reduce the federal government’s resources that would enable it to pay off debt. The tax cuts act implemented from 2018 did not attack the root cause of the unsustainable debt-driven US economy, so it is projected that the US economy will grow only 2.3% in 2018, and will grow even more slowly in subsequent years. Besides, the fiscal revenue of the federal government will keep declining due to the tax cuts, so it is projected that the ratio of tax revenue to GDP will fall to 14.0% in 2022, that is 3.3 percentage points down from that of 2017. The increasing demand for national defense, infrastructure and nondiscretionary spending will made it hard for the government to reduce fiscal expenditure effectively; thus it is estimated that the federal fiscal deficit in 2018 and 2019 will rise to 3.9% and 4.1% respectively.

4. Using increasing debt to make up for the fiscal gap brought about by the tax cuts will inevitably increase the credit risk of the federal government. The financial gap and the pressure to repay maturing debt increase the government’s needs for financing. It is estimated that the government’s ratio of fiscal revenue-to-debt will be 14.9% and 14.2% in 2018 and 2019 respectively, and the ratio will deteriorate to 12.1% in 2022. Then the government will have to keep on raising the debt ceiling. In addition, the government’s monetizable assets-to-debt ratio [was] merely 7.3% in 2017. That is to say, the government cannot stay solvent by relying solely on its monetizable assets and it has to resort to debt monetization to maintain the balance between repayment sources and debt. However, interest rate increases and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction will only raise the cost of finance through debt roll-over. That means that rolling over debts is unsustainable.

5. The virtual insolvency of the federal government will likely become the detonator of the next financial crisis. The serious imbalance between the sources of debt repayment and liabilities makes the federal government the weakest link in the US debt chain. Taking advantage of its right to print money, the US strives to maintain its solvency by purchasing treasuries with newly-printed dollars, which, in itself, is a debt crisis. The market’s reversing recognition of the value of US treasury bonds and US dollar will be a powerful force in destroying the fragile debt chain of the federal government.

The debt-economy model determined by the US political system, strategy and economic base will not change; tax cuts have increasingly adverse effects on the government’s repayment sources; the continuous reduction of fiscal revenue and the growth of debt show that the government’s ability to pay back creditors is weakening. Hence, Dagong holds a negative outlook for both the local and foreign currency sovereign credit.

Dagong Downgrades the Sovereign Credit Ratings of the United States of America

Copyright 2016 DAGONG GLOBAL | All rights reserved. 京ICP备08000

10 Numbers That Prove That America’s Current Financial Condition Is A Horror Show

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

America’s long-term “balance sheet numbers” just continue to get progressively worse. Unfortunately, since the stock market has been soaring and the GDP numbers look okay, most Americans assume that the U.S. economy is doing just fine.

But the stock market was soaring and the GDP numbers looked okay just prior to the great financial crisis of 2008 as well, and we saw how that turned out. The truth is that GDP is not the best measure for the health of the economy. Judging the U.S. economy by GDP is basically like measuring the financial health of an individual by how much money he or she spends, and I will attempt to illustrate that in this article.

If I went out right now and got a whole bunch of new credit cards and started spending money like there was no tomorrow, would that mean that my financial condition had improved?

No, in fact it would mean that my long-term financial condition just got a whole lot worse.

GDP is a measurement of how much economic activity is happening in our society, and it is basically an indication of how much money is changing hands.

But just because more money is changing hands does not mean that things are going well. What really matters is what is happening to assets and liabilities. In other words, is wealth being built or is more debt just being accumulated?

Sadly, there are only a handful of bright spots in our economy. A couple of very large tech companies such as Apple are accumulating wealth, but just about everywhere else you look debt is growing at an unprecedented pace. Household debt has never been higher, corporate debt has doubled since the last financial crisis, state and local government debt is at record highs, and the U.S. national debt is wildly out of control.

If I went out tomorrow and spent $20,000 with a bunch of new credit cards, I could claim that my “personal GDP” was soaring because I was spending a lot more money then before. But my boasting would be pointless because in reality I would just be putting my family in an extremely precarious financial position.

Economic growth that is produced by continually increasing amounts of debt is not a positive thing. I wish that more people understood this very basic concept. The following are 10 numbers that prove that America’s current financial condition is a horror show…

#1 U.S. consumer credit just hit another all-time record high. In the second quarter of 2008, total consumer credit reached a grand total of 2.63 trillion dollars, and now ten years later that number has soared to 3.87 trillion dollars. That is an increase of 48 percent in just one decade.

#2 Student loan debt has surpassed 1.5 trillion dollars for the first time ever. Over the last 8 years, the total amount of student loan debt has shot up 79 percent in the United States.

#3 According to the Federal Reserve, the credit card default rate in the U.S. has risen for 7 quarters in a row.

#4 One recent survey found that 42 percent of American consumers paid their credit card bill late “at least once in the last year”, and 24 percent of Americans consumers paid their credit card bills late “more than once in the last year”.

#5 Real wage growth in the United States just declined by the most that we have seen in 6 years.

#6 According to one recent study, the “rate of people 65 and older filing for bankruptcy is three times what it was in 1991”.

#7 We are in the midst of the greatest “retail apocalypse” in American history. At this point, 57 major retailers have announced store closings so far in 2018.

#8 The size of the official U.S. budget deficit is up 21 percent under President Trump.

#9 It is being projected that interest on the national debt will surpass half a trillion dollars for the first time ever this year.

#10 Goldman Sachs is projecting that the yearly U.S. budget deficit will surpass 2 trillion dollars by 2028.

And I haven’t even talked about unfunded liabilities. Those are essentially future commitments that we have made that we don’t have the money for at the moment.

According to Professor Larry Kotlikoff, our unfunded liabilities are well in excess of 200 trillion dollars right now.

If individuals, corporations, state and local governments and the federal government all stopped going into more debt, we would plunge into the greatest economic depression in U.S. history immediately.

The system is deeply, deeply broken, and the only way that we can keep this debt bubble going is go keep accumulating even more debt.

Anyone out there that believes that the U.S. economy has been “fixed” is completely deceived. NOTHING has been fixed. Instead, our long-term financial imbalances are getting worse at an escalating pace.

Unfortunately, the attitude of the general public is so similar to what it was just prior to the great financial crisis of 2008. Most people seem to assume that just because we have not experienced great consequences for our very foolish decisions up to this point that no great consequences are coming.

And many also assume that since control of the White House has switched parties that somehow things must magically be better as well.

Of course the truth is that the only way that our long-term problems are ever going to be fixed is if we start addressing the issues that caused those long-term problems in the first place, and that simply is not happening.

As I have traveled extensively over the course of the past year, I discovered that most Americans do not want to make fundamental changes to the system, because they are under the illusion that the current system is working just fine. So it will probably take another major crisis before most people are ready to consider fundamental changes, and when it finally arrives we will need to be ready to educate the public.

The system that we have today is not fundamentally sound at all. We desperately need to return to the values and principles that this nation was founded upon, but until things start getting really, really bad it is highly unlikely that the American people will be ready to embrace those changes.