by Germán Gorraiz Lopez-Political analyst
The Pentagon’s professed objective would be to provoke an Indo-Pakistani armed conflict, a new local episode between a Pakistan allied with China and an India supported by the US, with the aggravating factor of both countries having nuclear ballistic missiles.
The explosive cocktail of Kashmir
Kashmir would be the perfect paradigm for implementing the Brzezinskinian idea of “constructive chaos” in the region, a concept based on the maxim attributed to the Roman emperor Julius Caesar, “divide et impera”, to establish a field of instability and violence (Balkanization) and cause chaos that would spread from Lebanon, Palestine and Syria to Iraq and from Iran and Afghanistan to Pakistan, Kashmir and Anatolia (Asia Minor).
Kashmir seems to have become an explosive cocktail combining such unstable ingredients as the Hindu-Muslim religious dispute, the territorial dispute, and the cherry on top – the Kashmiri independentists supported by former jihadist fighters from Sudan, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Traditionally oppressed by the Indian army that has deployed nearly 500,000 soldiers in Kashmir (1 soldier for every 9 v). The nationalist government of Modi has also reportedly revoked Kashmir’s special status, which in practice means the detention sine die of local politicians from Kashmir and strict control of the Internet service.
India-China Approach?
In 1962, a confrontation between India and China broke out over the Chinese disagreement with the 1914 boundary line (McMahon Line). China gained control of the Aksai Chin Plateau and the Siachen Glacier (territories that India continues to claim as its own). China aims to store water from the headwaters of rivers such as the Brahmaputra to supply Chinese cities in the east of the country, and that would have alarmed the Modi government which fears a significant reduction in the flow of drinking water available; they do not rule out bombing Chinese hydraulic installations.
However, following the BRICS summit in Kazan (Russia), China and India have reportedly reached a historic agreement on the distribution of patrols along the disputed border that could ease tensions between the two nuclear powers. The agreement must have set off alarms in the Pentagon, so a plan to destabilize the border shared by both countries known as the Current Control Line (LAC) is being designed, along with the subsequent extension of the conflict to Kashmir to provoke an Indo-Pakistani armed confrontation that could see the first military strike in the form of a nuclear collision restricted to the Indo-Pakistani geographical area.
A New Indo-Pakistani conflict?
Kashmir has been an endemic confrontation between Pakistan and India, both of which have claimed it as their own since the independence of the two States in 194. (The British preferred to integrate Kashmir into India because it offered them more guarantees than Pakistan to safeguard the northern border from possible Soviet or Chinese attacks). The region is a strategic point for the control of rivers and border crossings as well as having symbolic value for the construction of each State’s national identities.
Consequently, the Pentagon will attempt to provoke an Indo-Pakistani armed conflict that would be a new local episode. Pakistan is allied with China and India is supported by the USA, with the aggravating factor of both countries having nuclear ballistic missiles. The subsequent extension of “constructive chaos” to Chinese territory is not to be ruled out. Thus, the US’s stated objective would be a confrontation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Founded in 2001 by the Shanghai Five (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) plus Uzbekistan) the SCO has become, together with the ALBA countries and Iran, the hard core of resistance to the global hegemony of the United States and Great Britain.
