The Specter of a Chinese Future

by Claudiu Secara

We pretty much see that the US-led Western economic system is crumbling under our own eyes. The industrial power-house of the West is completely out-done by the Chinese juggernaut. In every field of technological competition, the Chinese are out-competing the West with the exception of semiconductors. Not that the Chinese could not replicate or reverse engineer that last niche of technology, but it is restricted by the copyright monopoly held by the Western companies. For the Chinese to overtake that last piece of American advantage, it would have to invent a totally new technology, a totally parallel and a superior semiconductor industry. Based on past performance, that will only be a matter of time, in other words a few years.

Thus, the most frightening question is not whether the Western world can hold on to their own vs the Chinese, but what kind of role is going to be reserved for the West when it loses all its chips in the game.

Eastern Europe in the late 1960s and early 1970s offers a good vision of what can come to pass. After the devastating horrors of the two world wars and the separation from the other half of the continent, the Eastern European countries started to recover to “normal” by the late 1960s. Life in those years reached a peak of affluence. Incomes were steadily rising to the point where most families were enjoying substantial disposable income. A mini boom in apartment house construction, vacations abroad (even if mostly within the Eastern bloc), cars, household appliances were now common. It looked like another 10 years or so and they’d be catching up to Western Europe; it seemed all but guaranteed. And then something happened around 1972-73, and they never recovered again, ever since. Was it the first oil shock of 1973, was it the aftermath of the 1968 dissident movements, etc.? One example that seems to parallel the West of today was Romania’s choice of policy in those years.

At the time, Romania was enjoying an economic boom, consistently posting rates of growth of over 11 percent. But the ambitious young president, Nicolae Ceaușescu, had even more impressive plans. Shortly after Nixon’s trip to China and the opening of the new China policy by the Americans, Ceaușescu invited Nixon to Romania and at the same time followed his example and turned to China as a model for Romania itself. After a series of visits to China and North Korea, in April 1972 he issued the so-called “April Thesis,” through which Romania planned to introduce elements of the Chinese model in Romania, that is China’s work ethic, China’s cultural revolution, China’s manufacturing performance, and China’s opening to Western capital investment, and its perceived success. Romania became the first European country to experiment with the Chinese model.

Ceaușescu allowed Western investments to pour into Romania’s economy. From dozens and dozens of textile factories with Western money and Western technology working for Western markets to importing ambitious aviation technology, such as the mid-size British BAC commercial jet, to importing Canadian nuclear power plant technology at Cernavodă, etc., etc.

And just like what we are seeing today, the mini-cultural revolution followed closely behind. From a traditional joie de vivre, easy going, culture of restaurants and pubs with a vibrant night-life and partying, the new mini-culture revolution abruptly decreed a 9 PM curfew, a crackdown on work absenteeism, a crackdown on illicit income, a crackdown on assets that couldn’t be unaccounted for, in the name of an overall crackdown on the so-called everyday corruption. The result was that Romania turned into a grey, sullen, unhappy third-world labor pool for big Western capital. Even the public street lighting was reduced, first to fewer and lower lumens of fluorescence and then to total darkness. The whole country became a workshop serving Western capitalist financial interests.

It went like this for some 20 years, but by the time Romania repaid the loans to their Western Masters and would have reaped the benefits of their sacrifices and could have claimed a modern economy, like China does today, the West crushed it mercilessly and returned it to the feudal days.

So, how is that related to today’s world events? Is the China of today in the same situation as Romania around the 1980s? Will China become the enslaved coolie of Western capital again? Is Romania’s example a window into the future of China? And let’s not forget, was Ceaușescu’s fate in Piața Republicii what was and still is planned for the Chinese leaders in Tiananmen Square, as well?!

The answer is NO. What worked for Western Capital against a small, defenseless and opportunistic, hapless country, did not work against the formerly Number One World Civilization. Western capital broke its teeth trying to bite into that big piece of meat.

In an ironic twist, Romania’s example is an illustration of the future of the defeated Western world! It is an illustration of the fate awaiting the Western people. Hard to believe?!

What is the West’s magic weapon against the onslaught by the Chinese technological tide? A militarily Maginot line of defense? The Chinese will never invade the West militarily! A superior work ethic, now that night-life is under curfew on the pretext of fighting the Coronavirus throughout the Western world? Not really. Western man is an aging, soft, obese slob, hardly motivated to work his butt off day and night for the good of corporate profits. Western man is cynical at best and inept for the most part. He is uneducated and hooked on watching TV, eating potato chips and drinking Coke, if not ingesting crack.

Where are the Western scientists and innovators? Graduates of what schools and universities?

For over one hundred years, the US soaked up the best and the brightest from Europe. All its major technological advancements were created by imported European-educated scientists at the turn of the twentieth century and then after each of the two devastating (to Europe) wars. A big, last hurrah occurred after the dismantling of the Warsaw Pact when scores of well-educated people from Eastern Europe crossed the Atlantic in fulfillment of their lost dreams of a better life. Today, most of the top graduates in America’s top STEM universities are Asians, if not simply Chinese. Any attempt to cut back their influence in the US will be a catalyst for going back to their native country, giving China an even greater edge over America’s moribund R&D efforts.

The future, indeed, does not look bright for the West. I predict that this time the tables will be turned, and the only future that I can see is one where the semi-employable, semi-literate people of the West will slowly but ineluctably slide into the fate that was reserved for the Chinese people. A cruel twist of history is happening under our eyes. We are witnessing not exactly the sacking of Byzantium by the Ottoman forces but the impoverishment of today’s Americans in their own formerly shiny country – just like what happened to the native Indians a few centuries before.

Will the US and Europe be able to avoid such a future? They can prolong the agony, sure. Or they can join the Chinese, becoming an appendage of it while losing all their millennial-long special culture of individual rights, sense of freedom and liberty.

Or they can save themselves by turning their countries into theme parks, making the most of their glorious past, their architecture, and culture. The West could become a series of open air museums, like many small towns such as Mougins in the French Riviera, where the locals are waiting on tables for the tourists from Asia. That’s one of their best choices. But wait, those are in Europe, not in the US. As for the US, it’s different, with no theme park of the past and with Whites a minority by 2050 – if the US doesn’t make the mistake of turning itself into a radioactive wasteland first.

On the other hand, I can see a White Europe kept together by the might of Russia’s military and Russia’s practically unlimited reserves of natural resources. But the US will remain in the memory like a Western movie of some frontier past.

By the same author, see also:

Test… Test… Test… — No, It’s About Collecting Your DNA!

Vaccines for the Useless Eaters

Why the Crash of the US is Mathematically Inevitable

Just When is the US Going to Collapse?

The Specter of a Chinese Future

Trump and the Failed (Bio)War against China

Is there a Strategy in the US’ BLM craze?

 

Russia, on the Threshold of Victory or of the Doomsday?

We have very little time left to try to “exit the war” by any means (victory or through a disguised defeat), since the economic situation in the country is “on the brink of catastrophe.”

‘I accuse you, Benjamin Netanyahu’

Who Won in the Shutdown War?

The Republicans and Democrats have almost agreed to end the Shutdown — a situation where the budget is not passed and the government is not funded. Several aspects are important here.

  1. This is the longest Shutdown in US history. This indicates the growing overall crisis in the USA.
  2. The Shutdown was initially beneficial to Trump — to cut those government programs previously adopted by the Democrats. And Trump provoked the Shutdown.
  3. But then the Shutdown began to be very disadvantageous to Trump because it started causing many problems for ordinary people.
  4. The main problem — due to lack of funding for air traffic controllers and airports, 10% of flights were canceled. But there are also dozens and even hundreds of other various minor problems.
  5. The main politically public reason for the Shutdown: Trump wants to cut funding for healthcare for the poor. And the Democratic Party is sharply against it.
  6. The actual main reason: at first, Trump wanted to use the Shutdown to destroy programs adopted under Biden and Obama.
  7. Then the Democratic Party wanted to use the Shutdown to reduce Trump’s popularity in the November elections in various states.
  8. As a result, the Democratic Party won.
  9. Trump’s ratings fell. Trump risks losing the majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
  10. The Democrats achieved their goal and technically made concessions. Trump realized his problems were growing and also made concessions.
  11. The Shutdown will apparently end now. But the growing dysfunctionality of the US government’s work will continue.

via S. Markov

Heritage Foundation is Split

Not to miss this very insightful explanation of the battleground between the pro-Israel faction and the pro-US faction within the brain of the Republican party.

‘It’s like they’re coming out of a cult’: Ukraine tackles Russian indoctrination of repatriated children

Le Monde

By Faustine Vincent (Special correspondent in Kyiv)

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/06/it-s-like-they-re-coming-out-of-a-cult-ukraine-tackles-russian-indoctrination-of-repatriated-children_6747195_4.html

To date, 1,762 Ukrainian children have been repatriated after being forcibly transferred by Moscow. Ukrainians are working to de-indoctrinate them and are warning that today, all children living under occupation, Russified and militarized, are being torn from their country without even having to be physically deported.

In three and a half years of full-scale war, Oksana Lebedeva thought she had seen everything. But since she began caring for children repatriated to Ukraine after being forcibly transferred by Russia, the founder of the NGO Gen. Ukrainian discovered an even darker side of the conflict. “Their behavior is very different from children traumatized here by the conflict,” she explained. “When they come back, after being indoctrinated by Russia, they don’t speak, don’t play, don’t trust anyone and don’t even look at you.” One aspect particularly surprised her: “They are all extremely docile. That shocked us. They are ready to give everything and behave like little soldiers.” She gives each child a notebook to write about their experience. One boy took a red marker and wrote in large letters: “Top secret.”

To date, 1,762 Ukrainian children have been repatriated out of the 19,546 identified by Ukrainian authorities as having been deported to Russia or forcibly transferred within occupied territories. Moscow began mass transfers of these children at the beginning of its invasion in February 2022. Since then, Ukraine has worked to recover these “stolen children,” some of whom were adopted by Russian families, with Moscow erasing their identities by changing their names and dates of birth, and moving them around frequently. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, for the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children. That same year, Russia boasted of having “welcomed more than 700,000 Ukrainian children.”

The fate of these children torn from their country has provoked international outrage. But the threat has now grown, insist Ukrainian officials overseeing the issue. “The situation is much worse than at the start of the invasion,” warned Maksym Maksymov, project manager for the Bring Kids Back Ukraine program, created by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to coordinate efforts by the government, partner countries and international organizations to return “kidnapped” children. “Today,” Maksymov explained, “1.6 million Ukrainian children live in occupied territories and in Russia. Moscow is indoctrinating them with the same goal: to change their identity.” He said it’s important not to “focus solely on the figure of 20,000 deported children, because even if we manage to bring them back, it won’t solve the problem. Today, Russia doesn’t even need to physically transfer children to tear them from Ukraine; it does it psychologically and mentally.”

‘War machine’

Young Ukrainians are a prime target for the Kremlin. To erase their identity and turn them into future soldiers under its command, Moscow subjects them to forced re-education, Russification and militarization beginning in elementary school. “Whether the children are in Russia or in the occupied territories no longer has any impact on the level of indoctrination, it is the same everywhere,” noted Yulia Sidorenko, head of the Save Ukraine center in Kyiv, which assists repatriated minors. With this indoctrination, “deportation has become a process” affecting all Ukrainian children living under Russian control, according to Olena Rozvadovska, founder of the organization Voices of Children. “The Russians are brilliant at brainwashing,” she sighed. “It’s a war machine designed to make them hate anything Ukrainian.”

The methods used at times resemble laboratory experiments, particularly in “filtration camps,” giant checkpoints set up by Moscow in occupied territories and in Russia to control and filter Ukrainians trying to leave, where they may be detained for months. “A young girl told me that when the Russians showed them videos of Ukraine in these camps, it was cold, they were hungry and it smelled bad,” recounted Natalia Masiak, a psychologist at Voices of Children. “But when they showed videos of Russia, they handed out cookies, the atmosphere was comforting and it was warm.”

Daria Herasymchuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for children’s rights and rehabilitation, regrets that indoctrination is “not taken seriously enough” by international bodies. “Yet it’s a burning issue that represents a considerable threat.” She cited the case of Ugandan commander Dominic Ongwen. Kidnapped and indoctrinated by the rebel LRA group as a child, he was sentenced by the ICC in 2021 to 25 years in prison for crimes against humanity. “That’s why we must immediately save all our children,” Daria Herasymchuk insisted, “and not wait until they all turn against Ukraine.”

Oleksandr (a pseudonym), 19, spent three and a half years under Russian occupation in Dniprorudne, in the Zaporizhzhia region, before managing to escape in August. This young Ukrainian, who was tortured by Russian security services (FSB) for two months for forming a small resistance group, described how the environment radically changed since 2022. “Russia is everywhere, on the radio, on flags. Staying there without having your brain melt is extremely difficult,” said the student, now living in Kyiv. “Young people are particularly affected. The effect of propaganda is so powerful that even those who were against Russia are starting to believe it. Even 14-year-olds don’t really remember what life was like in Ukraine [before the Russians arrived].”

Oleksander (who is using a pseudonym) was subjected to interrogations, electric torture, psychological pressure and imprisonment by Russian forces for two months when he was only 16 years old, in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia. In the offices of the Bring Kids Back Ukraine organization, in Kyiv, October 4, 2025. VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HUMA FOR LE MONDE

The more traumatized a child is, the more receptive they are to propaganda and the easier to manipulate. “That’s why the Russians create this trauma, by completely isolating the child, hammering home the message that no one is coming to get them and that no one needs them,” explained Myroslava Kharchenko, co-founder of the humanitarian organization Save Ukraine, which searches for, repatriates and rehabilitates abducted Ukrainian children. “It works very well: The child, broken, feels abandoned. The Russians empty them of their identity and values, and replace them with others.”

Adoptions for payment

Ksenia Koldin, 21, saw the effectiveness of this method on her younger brother, who was forcibly transferred to Russia in August 2022 at age 11 from Vovchansk, one of the first Ukrainian cities to be occupied, in the Kharkiv region. As a student, she had to fight to get him back. When she finally found him in May 2023, the boy, placed with a Russian foster family, initially refused to go with her. “He told me his life was now in Russia, that he had friends there and that Ukraine was a bad and dangerous country. I was desperate,” recounted the young woman, her black hair pulled back and face grave. She spent three and a half hours trying to convince him. “His foster family and the Russian school had completely brainwashed him. Then, I had a stroke of genius and told him: ‘OK, but I’m your sister, I love you, I missed you a lot, so let’s just go for a month.'” Since then, her brother has been cared for in Ukraine and has not gone back to Russia.

Upon their return, all repatriated children are questioned by a psychologist about their experience. Hidden behind a one-way mirror, representatives from Ukrainian security services, the prosecutor general’s office, the police and child protection services pass along their questions. The information gathered helps to better understand Russian methods. After spending up to three months in filtration camps, the youngest and healthiest children are adopted by Russian families, who receive the equivalent of $200 per month (€173) and sometimes take in seven or eight children. “These families aren’t interested in the child, but in the money,” explained Masiak, who has conducted about 50 interviews. “Many adoptive parents threatened the children: ‘If you don’t obey, we’ll tell everyone you’re Ukrainian. You’ll see what happens to you.’ There are many cases of abuse.”

The de-indoctrination of children repatriated from Russia and the occupied territories is a complex process, and a step considered necessary for their rehabilitation. “We have to ‘deprogram’ them because, among those who have returned, some believed that Ukraine no longer existed and that Russia had won the war,” explained Kharchenko. Others display strange reflexes. “An 18-year-old boy, rescued from Russian-controlled territories, went to the Kyiv memorial honoring fallen soldiers. Seeing all the Ukrainian flags, which are banned in occupied zones, he suddenly began singing the Russian anthem.” Police intervened, believing it was a provocation, and opened a criminal investigation. “We had to prove he had suffered a psychological breakdown,” Kharchenko added.

So far, most of the Ukrainian children who have been repatriated are teenagers who wanted to return and have not been completely brainwashed by propaganda. “But the longer children stay in occupied territory, the harder it will be to help them when they return and to convince them everything was false,” said Rozvadovska. Aware of the scale of the challenge, specialists in de-indoctrination are developing different methodologies.

‘Deprogramming’

The approach used by the Save Ukraine NGO, developed in collaboration with clinical psychologists, neuropsychologists and Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv, has a telling name: “deprogramming.” This involves preparing the environment for repatriated children by training their teachers, classmates and community to restore trust and help them feel “expected.” That is not always the case today. After being harassed in Russia, where they were accused of starting the war and being responsible for the death of a father or brother killed at the front, some are sometimes harassed upon their return to Ukraine, where they are criticized for not leaving earlier or for not speaking Ukrainian well.

The specialists in charge of these children are careful not to use the same violent methods that the Russians used to indoctrinate them, favoring instead a “gentle” and individualized approach. “But it will take years for them to readjust, because it’s like they’re coming out of a cult,” observed Masiak. Ukraine has sought advice from Finland, which is working to reintegrate children from the Islamic State. “At first, these children refuse to leave Syria, but after leaving the camp, their perception changes. That gives us hope,” said Maksymov.

Ukrainians know the hardest part is yet to come and that time is against them. Not only because tracing the youngest becomes almost impossible, but also because the longer the war lasts, the more children trapped in Russia and occupied territories grow up believing they are Russian and that Ukraine is the enemy, undermining any deprogramming efforts – if they ever return at all.

Anticipating these difficulties, the authorities launched a national campaign in the spring, “Let’s Bring Ukrainian Children Home,” to collect the DNA of families whose children were transferred to Russia and create a database. “That way, if these children come back in 10, 20 or 30 years, they can be identified,” explained Maksymov. “It will allow us to prove what happened.” And help these Ukrainians discover their true story.

‘Gaza Will Haunt Israel for Generations’- Mika Almog Granddaughter of Former President Shimon Peres

Chinas Ten No’s: Sun-Tzu Has Swallowed the Frog

By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with

In a conversation lasting one hour and forty minutes according to the Chinese stopwatch– “a long meeting” on President Donald Trump’s clock — President Xi Jinping first knocked the stuffing out of Trump’s warmaking threats, then forced him to beat a retreat behind a 12-month ceasefire with the man the Pentagon has designated its principal enemy but whom Trump praised effusively as “a great leader, great leader of a very powerful, very strong country…a tremendous leader of a very powerful country and I give great respect to him.”

“Uh,” Trump told reporters on board his aircraft as it rocked in crosswinds flying eastward, “a lot of things we discussed in great detail. A lot of things we brought to finalization. A lot of finalization.” This was false.

Worse for the Trump warfighting strategy, the Chinese have retained escalation dominance by making Trump’s concessions their pre-condition for China’s temporary suspension of their sanctions on rare earths exports and imports of US computer chips. For this, Xi offered to buy US soybeans slowly for $34.2 billion over four years – roughly half in tonnage, half in price over twice the interval that China had agreed to in the past.

In General Sun Tzu’s ancient manual for warfighting, “the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”. The old man also confessed his limitation: “there is an intelligent way to eat a live frog – I just don’t know what it is.” Xi just demonstrated the way to do it. Trump went down smiling.

Xi has not yet telephoned President Vladimir Putin to brief him on what happened. After Putin’s meeting with Trump in Alaska on August 6, Putin telephoned Xi on August 8. “So far,” said Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, ”there is no such conversation in the schedule, but it can be quickly agreed upon if necessary,”

The Russian state media have interpreted the outcome of the talks to be a “temporary ceasefire” achieved by not discussing the key economic and territorial war issues at all. “There have been no joint statements yet,” Tass noted, “and some of the most important issues of bilateral relations, such as Nvidia chips and advanced products, have remained unresolved.” Nothing was achieved, the official Moscow commentators think, in the US attempt to split Xi from Putin, and secure Chinese pressure on Russia to end the Ukraine war on US and NATO terms. “Ukraine came up, uh, very strongly,” Trump told reporters as he flew back to Washington. “We talked about it for a long time and we’re both gonna work together to see if we can get something done. Uh, we agreed the, the sides there, you know, locked in, fighting, and sometimes you have to let him fight, I guess. Crazy. But he’s gonna help us and we’re gonna work together on Ukraine.”

The Russian state media have yet to notice that Trump is abandoning his attempt, through the Rosneft and LUKOil oil trade sanctions of October 25, to stop China buying Russian oil. “There’s not a lot more we can do,” Trump replied to a reporter who asked if he and Xi had discussed his threat to sanction Chinese companies for buying Russian crude oil and petroleum products. “Uh, you know, he’s been buying oil from Russia for a long time. It takes care of a, a big part of China. And, you know, I, I can say India’s been very good, good on that, uh, front. Uh, but, uh, we, we didn’t really discuss the oil. We discussed working together to see if we could get that war finished. You know, it doesn’t affect China.”

A review of the Xi-Trump summit by Russian sources has identified Xi’s ten noes as a discreet way of contrasting Putin’s approach with Trump at the Anchorage meeting, their subsequent telephone call, and the exchange of remarks about each other in the press:

Tsargrad, the television and internet medium of Russian nationalism, has been the least reticent of the Moscow media in its summing up. “After a triumphant – in words – visit to Japan, which refused to stop buying Russian oil, and the ‘bummer’ (облома) in South Korea, which will not invest $ 350 billion in the US economy if they themselves do not give this amount to Seoul, Trump met with Xi Jinping in Busan. And he lost a big one. Negotiations at the South Korean Air Force base lasted 1 hour and 40 minutes, after which, shaking hands, the leaders went off on their own business. As a result, ‘the fantastic relationships for a long time’ (Trump’s words) turned out to be a dream.”

The lesson for the Kremlin, Tsargrad hinted, was that “when Trump flew away from Busan, it was clear that he was lost, because the US could not intimidate China like other countries…Equally obvious, the victory of one of the two contenders for the title of the leading power of the world will depend on the position of Russia. The global geopolitical triangle has not gone away – only the weight and degree of influence of its member countries changes. Half a century ago, Beijing had the ‘golden [controlling] share’, but now Moscow has it — and it also has the ‘silver bullet’ ”.

Putin is losing the weirdest war in 150 years

by Mark Brolin via The Telegraph

Mark Brolin is a geopolitical strategist and the author of ’Healing Broken Democracies: All You Need to Know About Populism’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/10/28/putin-is-losing-the-weirdest-war-in-150-years/

The Ukraine conflict has descended into farce. But behind the fog, Russia’s desperate state is becoming ever clearer

Lord Palmerston is famously said to have joked of the 1864 Danish-German war that only three people ever understood the reason behind it: one who had died, one who went mad, and the third who had forgotten. If that conflict once felt like the apex of strategic absurdity, the Russia-Ukraine war has somehow raised the bar.

Consider the behaviour of the main parties.

First up is team Putin, which hoped to showcase strength and strategic mastery by seizing Ukraine. So how did that turn out? Well, the bubble of 19th century Kremlin yes-men turned out to know so little about the ways of the real world that Moscow’s sphere of influence has contracted across the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe, with Finland and Sweden joining Nato, and Russia drifting closer to becoming a de facto Chinese vassal state. Moscow has been losing its Western oil markets, while its supposedly mighty army has only managed to gain control of a fraction of Ukrainian territory. This has come at vast human and economic cost, with no persuasive case as to why the world’s largest country needed those extra square miles.

Then there is Ukraine and president Zelensky. There is, of course, nothing bizarre about Kyiv’s heroic fight to drive back the Russians. If only the same could be said about its efforts to keep America in the fight. Ukraine has tended to frame the case urgently: help now, or the consequences would be dire, including the threat of Moscow starting a world war. But today’s Russia is a dwarf next to the US in every respect besides the nuclear bombs that even Putin knows he cannot use. Exaggerating Russia’s strength has not helped Ukraine in the court of American opinion.

Next comes Europe. For years, many European countries disarmed while deepening energy dependence on one of their main adversaries, while ignoring explicit warnings from countries like Poland and Ukraine. They lectured about principles while buying Russian oil, thereby funding the very war machine they condemned. Despite the war in Europe and their own sclerotic economies, European leaders continue to moralise as if they are somehow sitting on top of the best recipe for peace and prosperity on the planet.

Finally, there’s the US and its president. Donald Trump’s opening gambit in his attempt to achieve peace in Ukraine was to push for Moscow’s desired end-state (telling Ukraine to cede stolen ground and ditch its hopes of joining Nato even before sitting down at the negotiating table). Then came the Tomahawk episode: for a few days, Trump brandished the threat of giving Ukraine these long-range missiles. Just as the threat seemed to work – when the Kremlin reached for the phone – it was oddly withdrawn. So leverage was first applied and then removed in a heartbeat.

All of this makes this conflict feel so odd that it can drive anyone who prizes logic and consistency a little mad.

Yet despite all the frustrating backsliding, the forces of reason might just be winning out. Inch by inch, Europe and the United States are, for the first time, pushing back in concert in a significant way. Europe is rearming; its energy dependence on Russia is falling; frozen Russian reserves are being explored as a way of funding for Ukraine; and recent US policy moves have tightened the oil squeeze. Chinese and Indian energy firms appear to be acting more cautiously than before while, seemingly not without reason, afraid of second tier sanctions. The West continues to supply Ukraine with crucial technological, logistical and intelligence support.

Perhaps most significantly, the myth of “Great Power” Russia may at least be about to be punctured. This myth let the Kremlin swagger, and encouraged Europe to act like cowards. It allowed appeasers and Russian apologists to demand that Ukraine “adapt to the facts” – conveniently ignoring the equally important facts about Russia. Here are a few:

Russia’s war-economy is overheating

Year-on-year inflation ran about 8pc in September (Russian source), with prices re-accelerating into the autumn. This is a classic symptom of a state-directed wartime splurge, not durable strength. The Russian central bank has set interest rates at almost 17pc – a banana-republic number.

Guns are crowding out butter

Moscow’s 2025 plan lifted defence to roughly a third of total spending and around 6pc of GDP – levels that squeeze everything else and lock in future austerity.

Moscow is bleeding manpower

Estimates vary, but some credible sources put Russian deaths at more than 200,000 (Feb 2022 – Aug 2025), while total casualties (deaths and wounded) are thought to have exceeded 1.1 million by October 2025; Nato has estimated that around 100,000 Russians have died in 2025 alone. However you slice it, losses are highly likely to be dwarfing sustainable replacement.

Economic growth is an illusion built on war outlays

Russia has been posting positive GDP figures, but these have been driven by state orders and price spikes, fuel for today’s inflation and tomorrow’s hangover. Even senior Russian bankers are now warning about the economic situation, as softer oil assumptions and Ukrainian refinery strikes erode profits from Russia’s core asset.

The labour supply is being squeezed

Unemployment sits at historic lows because workers are scarce; almost a million Russians are thought to have left after 2022, deepening shortages.

This has exacerbated the brain drain

The Russian people are among Europe’s poorest and unhealthiest (the average life span for males is around ten years lower than within EU countries). Freedom of expression? A joke that is not only a human but also an economic tragedy. Understandably many of the brightest and richest have left the country for greener pastures – taking both their brains and capital with them.

Russia’s dependence on China is deepening

Around 35-40pc of Russia’s trade now runs through China; Beijing is by far the top buyer of Russian energy, but trade growth has been hampered by Chinese payment hurdles, underscoring Moscow’s weaker hand. The fact that Russian business has no straightforward access to any competitive market economy is another hardly envious position. This is starting to hit home in all sorts of respects. For example, aviation safety has deteriorated as carriers “cannibalise” grounded planes for parts; more than half of Western-built aircraft could be parked by 2026 without spares. That is what high-tech isolation looks like.

Return fire is now hitting deep inside Russia

Even without Tomahawks, Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities – long-range drones, Storm Shadow/SCALP, Atacms – are now regularly hitting air bases, refineries, logistics hubs and the Black Sea coastline. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been degraded, dispersed, and pushed east; Crimea, once a sanctuary, is a firing range. The war has been brought to the Russians.

None of this argues for rewarding aggression with land – or for the idea that Russia can “comfortably fight for years”. It argues for tightening the screws that actually matter: enforcing the oil price cap and hitting shippers/insurers, choking off machine-tool and dual-use inputs, and allowing even deeper Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s logistics aorta. Thankfully, all this is finally happening.

The real danger for Ukraine is that the Russian situation is so dire that Putin might personally want to prolong the war, regardless of the cost. When focus returns to the domestic situation, the spotlight will swing to a mess of his own making: inflation, shortages, a shrinking workforce, and a kleptocracy that cannot modernise. If he keeps fighting, the bill might grow, the body count might climb and the backlash might be even greater once the guns stop firing, but he can at least postpone the problem for another day.

In short, Putin may no longer be living in reality, but in a bizarre version curated by the yes-men around him. That is why pressure must be kept up: to make the reality of his situation impossible to ignore.

Big News, Behind the Headlines

This is BIG! It explains Trump’s erratic changes, why no meeting with Putin in Budapest, why Dmitriev is in panic trip to the US, why Netanyahu is under pressure by Trump, etc., etc.

Fear of Vote on Releasing Epstein Files is Keeping the U.S. Government Shut Down!

Mike Johnson and Melania Trump Sued Over Epstein Scandal!

Updates from the week on the Epstein Scandal. The one issue Donald Trump wishes would go away, but is picking up steam. Follow the link below.